Stocks Swoon Lower; My Revenge Has Been Rebuffed

I’m feeling slightly better this morning, after taking a large amount of Nyquill last night before bed. I see stocks are lower, including my “revenge” stock, FEYE, which cost me millions back in 2014. I won’t let it slide much further and will likely need to take another L on this bastard son of a bitch.

The NASDAQ is lower by 34. Gold is getting demolished, off by 1.55%. Did you sign up yo OA’s boot camp? He nailed that trade.

Environmental firm, CCC, got bought out today for $21 — a 61% premium over yesterday’s close. Several biotech lottery tickets are up a bunch and ALB’s price target was raised at Jefferies, making all of the lithiumfags happy and content.

I sort of regret offering free Exodus trials last night, as I am manually doing it for all of you. I figured maybe 20-30 people would respond and I’d be able to do it at my leisure. Wrong. Over 100 hundred of you lurking bastards responded and I’ve been inundated with the trials. I’ll get to the balance of them soon, so be patient.

Everyone is making such a big deal about these outtakes. If anything, it makes Larry look like a good olde Irish boy, having a grande olde time with the teevee cameras. I’m sure Larry had an extra pint after all of the insanity was in his ear, hammering and the like.

I love @Lawrence now . True boss. pic.twitter.com/t1ZFJ2iA6I

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 20, 2017

Full clip.

I just got back from power washing the side of the house. The way I figured, since I was running a very high fever and felt death at my transom, it’d make sense to balance myself upon a ladder and spray 1,700 PSI at the side of the house — getting all of the spores and mold into my face and eyes.

After I did that, I ventured off inside and thought I’d commit a brave act of generosity before I died. I am granting FREE Exodus trials for a period of 2 or 3 days, or whenever I start feeling better again.

Because I don’t have any tech at the moment, you’ll just have to email the old school way and request an entrance login.

Email me at [email protected].

If I should perish, well then, you’d have Exodus for life — free of charge. Do as you like.

Yellen made herself look like a fool today. For a brief moment, markets dropped and some of my positions took a turn lower. After a few minutes of introspective analysis, traders bought the fucking dip and the post Fed announcement had been erased.

Aside my quantitative trades, I am very much invested in a slew, mind you, of discretionary ideas.

Here’s what I know to be true.

XIV will be sold at $95 or better.

UAN was an is an emergency buy. The price target is undetermined at this time.

SMI cannot help but to trade higher.

PGTI needs more hurricanes.

FIZZ — feeling parched yet?

OLED is, without question, moving higher.

FEYE was supposed to be my revenge trade, but it seems to me that the revenge is theirs, yet again.

I have a few irons in the fire, aside from the above picks. Quite honestly, I am sweating like a fat sloppy hog now, likely due to whatever ailment I’ve been afflicted with.

Semis, Nasdaq and inverse volatility.

The perennial bear at Zerohedge pointed to a recent analyst note, warning of a balance sheet unwind. Naturally, it’s cataclysmic.

“If Bonds Are Right, Stocks Will Drop Up To 20%.” This point can be summarized simply as follows: there is $1 trillion in excess TSY supply coming down the line, and either yields will have to jump for the net issuance to be absorbed, or equities will have to plunge 30% for the incremental demand to appear.

An unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet also increases UST supply to the public. Ultimately, the Treasury needs to borrow from the public to pay back principal to the Fed resulting in an increase in marketable issuance. We estimate the Treasury’s borrowing needs increase roughly by $1tn over the next five years due to the Fed rolloffs. However, not all increases in UST supply are made equal. This will be the first time UST supply is projected to increase when EM reserve growth likely remains benign. Note both the 2003-06 and 2009-13 increase in UST supply were met with the largest increase in Chinese buying of USTs. With this unlikely to repeat, we believe price sensitive buyers need to step up.

Our analysis suggests this would necessitate a significant rise in yields or a notable correction in equity markets to trigger the two largest remaining sources (pensions or mutual funds) to step up to meet the demand shortfall. Again, this is a slower moving trigger that tightens financial conditions either by necessitating higher yields or lower equities.

The Fed didn’t hike rates this meeting, but they did announce they’ll be unwinding their $4.5t balance sheet starting in October — dubbed ‘balance sheet normalization’. She did say, however, they’ll likely hike once more in 2017.

She said the balance sheet will be reduced ‘gradually and predictably.’

Here’s Yellen trying to explain the Fed’s tight monetary policy, saying she was puzzled by the lack of inflation — chalking it up to ‘transitory’ circumstances.

Don't worry, the lack of inflation is 'transitory.' It's been transitory for 9 years now. She's insane. pic.twitter.com/YBbQDTAA5c

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 20, 2017

Yellen admitting that she has no idea why inflation is sub 2% pic.twitter.com/Pv3LDgcCLX

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 20, 2017

Markets are not greeting this news with joy and glee. Stocks have taken a dive and the dollar is ripping v the euro, +0.98%.

On the downside, as could be expected with dollar strength, is gold — off by 0.7% — reversing today’s gains.

I was having descriptive dreams of broccoli spears chasing me down Wall Street. As I attempted to cut a corner, a gigantic asparagus man clothes lined me and slapped the shit out of me with his leafy hands. I’m pretty sure a minor form of delirium had set in, likely due to a heightened temperature.

As expected, I woke up every half hour, almost in a sheer panic about my stock positions. Alas, I woke up around 12:46pm, for the last time, and they were all doing just fine.

There is notable strength in both UAN and SMI today, the former being a recipient of a very rare ’emergency buy’ yesterday. I will be regaining my strength soon, as I am currently drinking a bottle of water with a vitamin c packet in it and a pumpkin bagel filled with delicious slimy vegetables.

Outliers to the upside are oil and the downside semis. It’s a do nothing day, for the most part. What have you been doing with your meaningless lives?

I caught some sort of wild variant of the flu yesterday and I’ve been medicating myself ever since. With mega doses of vitamin C, some decongestants, and fever suppressants, I feel as if life simply isn’t worth continuing under these present conditions. Nevertheless, I march on into the complacent market, filled with rainbows and sunsets.

I am going back to sleep, immediately following this post and can make no commitments as to when I will be returning.

I see Jimmy Kimmel is trending on Twitter, which confirms my suspicion that I had been wasting away discussing politics and the cavemen who cavort in it.

Early going, futs are flat, but gold is higher by 0.6%.

WTI is the big show-stopper, with gains of 1.2%.

Hurricane Maria made a direct hit on Puerto Rico, with winds of 155mph.

BREAKING: Hurricane Maria makes landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico at 6:15 a.m. local time with winds of 155 mph pic.twitter.com/O2WNR7FjjV

— NBC News (@NBCNews) September 20, 2017

And here’s some other nonsense from my Twitter stream.

Ok, off I go. Don’t even think about waking me up. I’ll likely wake up every 30 mins anyway, induced by nightmare’s of me losing all of my money in FIZZ.

The ETF industry has made a mockery of hedge fund managers. Warren Buffett is on the precipice of winning a 10 year $2 million bet against an active manager, for waging $500,000 that the mundane SPY would trounce his funds over a 10 year time frame. Said fund manager only managed to eek out ~2% annual returns since then, humiliating himself in the process.

Excluding dividends, the S&P 500 is up ~13% this year. Not too many fund managers can claim to be up that much.

According to Barclay’s, the hedge fund industry is woefully underperforming the market as a whole this year, sporting just ~6% returns. Naturally, to get a pure apples to apple comparison, we’d need to ex out bond funds and special situation arbs. Nevertheless, I think it’s fair to say the vast majority of hedge funders can’t trade to save their lives and are crushed on a regular basis vs static, boring, low fee, ETFs.

Here are some of the top performing unleveraged ETFs this year. Let me know if your manager beat these.

GBTC +487%
XIV +99%
KWEB +69%
CQQQ +66%
EMQQ +65%
BRF +61%
LIT +61%
BBC +55%
PLND +55%
REMX +51%
ARKG +51%

They’re guiding way down on earnings, a long winding staircase into the abyss of a retail landscape, post Amazon, in ruins. Shares were already down in excess of 55% over the past year, prior to this harrowing calamity. With these numbers catching even the most bearish off-guard, you should expect carnage in the after-hours, carnage in tomorrow’s pre-market, and a blood bath to ensue during tomorrow’s trade.

Over the past two years, BBBY had kept up the canard by issuing big discounts, which left sales flat and earnings dropping off the cliff, to the tune of 30%. Apparently, their efforts to increase foot traffic have failed and the chickens are now coming home to roost.

Shares are off another 13% in the after hours.

Reports Q2 (Aug) earnings of $0.67 per share, $0.28 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.95; revenues fell 1.7% year/year to $2.94 bln vs the $3.01 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Comparable sales in the fiscal 2017 second quarter decreased by ~2.6%. Comparable sales from customer-facing digital channels continued to have strong growth in excess of 20% for the 13th consecutive quarter, while comparable sales from stores declined in the mid-single-digit percentage range during the fiscal 2017 second quarter.

Includes the unfavorable impacts of approximately $.08 per diluted share of cash restructuring charges associated with the acceleration of the realignment of our store management structure announced on August 3, 2017. The estimated costs associated with the impact of Hurricane Harvey of approximately $.02 per diluted share; and the impact of the new share-based payment accounting standard of approximately $.01 per diluted share.

Co issues downside guidance for FY18, sees EPS of $3.00 (prior: down LSD-10% from $4.58) vs. $4.00 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

The Co’s planning assumptions reflect actual results through the fiscal second quarter and the continuation of the trends the Co has been experiencing, and the unfavorable impacts of: the cash restructuring charges associated with the acceleration of the realignment of our store management structure; Hurricanes Harvey and Irma; the adoption of the new shared based payment accounting standard; and further increases in its overall expense structure to reflect some of the accelerated spending associated with the Company’s organizational changes and transformational initiatives. The Company is now modeling net earnings per diluted share for the full year to be about $3.00, with the balance of the net earnings per diluted share to be split approximately 20% in the fiscal third quarter and approximately 80% in the fiscal fourth quarter.