EMERGENCY BUY: $UAN

I am over here drinking a hot hot cup of extra dark roast (the darkest roast the earth could offer me), listening to WQXR- Classical FM, perusing the recent winners and one sector stuck out like a sore thumb. It wasn’t your faggotry in the lithium ion space, or my very manly (indeud) plays on FIZZ, OLED or even XIV. It was the god damned agricultural chem space, a sector that has been bedraggled by obtuse losses for the better part of the past decade.

Gone are the sweet, harmonious, days of the $100 tomato.

Or is it?

According to the metrics vested in me, I spied magnanimous gains, both expressly enjoyed and retained, in UAN, CF, IPI and even AGU and POT.

This prompted me to take immediate action, without even thinking about the untoward consequences of my impulsive behavior. I logged into my brokerage account and purchased UAN, the very lowest of the low on a very ugly totem pole. Immediately thereafter, I felt a sense of relief, as if I had done my duty. Ergo, this emergency has been justly explained and you’re all informed.

Take a brief look at the numbers for UAN, perhaps there’s a cyclical change happening now. Look at that revenue growth.

Good day to you.

The lithium story is as old as the day is long. But for some reason, which I am apparently ignorant about, this is happening again. Perhaps it’s Tesla related, or maybe the automobile industry is truly trying to adopt these batteries in a large way. Other than dicking around with lithium batteries inside of my flashlight, I have little enthusiasm for the sector.

But what the fuck do I know anyway, right?

Lithium, as represented by LIT, is up 62% for the year.

The main play, Chilean miner, SQM, is higher by 121% this year.

Some other plays include, but not limited too, BYDDF (+21%), HPJ (+109%), ALB (+57%), FMC (+63%).

Now I could do a cursory google search or ask a friend of mine to send me a report on the industry, summarize it and then post it here for your pleasure. But why bother doing that? What in the fuck is your purpose anyway, aside form leeching and complaining, taking, and stealing?

How about you tell me why Lithium is such a great investment now and I’ll patiently wait here, waiting a bowl of cereal (coconut milk) eagerly anticipating your report?

My newly minted OLED position is off to a great start, as the Apple transition over to the technology causes widespread panic and supply chain angst. I intend to profit immensely by this discord, via OLED, or another means.

I sold out of FAZ. It didn’t work. The banks didn’t collapse. It’s a memory.

Moving on, I am still optimistic that we might see some sort of hurricane this year threaten the United Steaks, causing PGTI to gap higher once more. Also, volatility should begin to ramp up a bit, especially during the latter part of September. My XIV position is earmarked to be sold at $95. As the Lord is my witness right here, right now, I shall sell it at $95 or more, in the not-too-distant future.

Both SMI and FEYE are consolidating — nothing to worry about there. I am, however, eagerly awaiting the breakout of my FIZZ — which has tempered its violence to the upside over the past week or so. I imagine parents are busy with back to school activities, running around without adequate amounts of water flowing through their systems. Might I suggest venturing over to the local grocer to pick up a case or two of La Croix Mure Pepino?

Quit being an immense faggot and buy some now.

The Graham-Cassidy bill is picking up steam in the Senate, which would eliminate the employer and individual mandate, permitting people to choose flimsy plans on the cheap. As you could imagine, the healthcare mafia is panicking over this and are likely rushing to lobby Sen. McCain’s office to vote against such a measure.

Some of the standout losers include MOH (-6%), CNC (-4.6%), WCG (-4.3%),AET (-3%).

The gist of the new proposed plan would transfer power over to the states via grants by eliminating federal funding.

Source: NY Mag

But Graham-Cassidy does something even more radical: eliminating federal funding for Obamacare marketplace subsidies and the Medicaid expansion, and replacing it with one block grant to the states.

“If you like Obamacare, you can re-impose the mandates at the state level,” Cassidy told CNN. “You can repair Obamacare if you think it needs to be repaired. You can replace it if you think it needs to be replaced. It’ll be up to the governors. They’ve got a better handle on it than any bureaucrat in Washington.”

Sen. Paul sums it up.

“I think this is a game,” said Senator Rand Paul, one of the few GOP senators openly opposing the bill. “I think this is a game of Republicans taking money from Democratic states. What happens if Democrats take power back?”

Breadth stands at 49% today, with banks leading on the upside. Incidentally, I closed out my FAZ position.

For the first time ever, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which was launched 20 years ago to invest their oil money, has surpassed $1 trillion.

“I don’t think anyone expected the fund to ever reach 1 trillion dollars when the first transfer of oil revenue was made in May 1996. Reaching 1 trillion dollars is a milestone, and the growth in the fund’s market value has been stunning”, said Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer at Norges Bank Investment Management.

The fund’s administrators said that on Tuesday 19 September 2017 at 2:01 a.m. local time, the fund value hit $1,000,000,000,000, or $1 trillion, for the first time.

The bank said a strengthening of the world’s major currencies against the U.S. dollar combined with strong equity markets during 2017 had rapidly increased the U.S. dollar value of the pooled capital.

The fund is broadly diversified and is very open about how the money is invested. If you’re interested in the details, check here.

The fund is ~65% long equities, upwards of 30% fixed income and a little real estate.

Norway’s GDP for 2016 was $370 billion, or $70k per capita.

Here’s the top countries, sorted by highest GDP per capita.

UPDATE:
Apple target raised to $194 from $182 at Morgan Stanley
Post acquires BOB for $77.

Hello mates, it looks like futures are higher again, alongside the winds of Hurricane Maria — who is making her way down to Puerto Rico to wreak havoc. While we get to enjoy the availability of being able to drive away from these storms, the poor people on these god forsaken islands are forced to endure the wrath of Mother Nature and all of her indecorous fury.

WATCH: The latest updates on #HurricaneMaria from @alroker on @TODAYshow https://t.co/dllD2cBoGv

— NBC News (@NBCNews) September 19, 2017

Before I get into the ins and outs of this morning’s tape, I just about finished up the first season (new show) of Ozark, starring Jason Bateman. Wow. It’s about a financial advisor who launders money for the Mexican cartel. It’s a really strong offering and highly entertaining.

WTI is higher by another 0.8% this morning. The WTI-Brent spread is nearly $5, so this isn’t merely WTI playing catch up post Harvey, thanks to supply disruptions. This new leg up for oil is real and has surprised many, myself included.

Gold is edging higher. The dollar is -0.28% v the euro and the NIKKEI ripped through the ceiling tiles, +1.96%.

Over in Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 is flat and S&P futs are +2.6 and ETH and BTC are lower by 2.6% and 1.7%, respectively.

As it pertains to my XIV position, I will be selling it at $95 or better today, because I’m a man of my word.

Here is my technical analysis on my most recent pick. $XIV. pic.twitter.com/4pyHyNjJYr

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 11, 2017

And here is more from my Twitter feed.

Are you surprised to learn that Mexican melons or Turkish grain, labeled as ‘organic’ are total and complete fabrications?

A USDA audit was published today found that the much of the incoming cargoes of food labeled ‘organic’ failed to meet the compliance standards set forth by the agency.

In a nutshell, they can’t prove whether or not the food was sprayed with insecticide. Ergo, the food cannot be proven to be organic.

Its review said that the department’s Agricultural Marketing Service, which oversees organic standards, couldn’t prove that incoming cargoes “were reviewed at U.S. ports of entry to verify that imported agricultural products labeled as organic were from certified organic foreign farms and business.” The audit also found the agency hasn’t figured out how to ensure that shipments sprayed for insects don’t get labeled organic before they reach grocery store shelves.

As consumer purchases of organic foods soar, U.S. imports have been on the rise and were valued at $1.72 billion last year, USDA data showed. Consumers typically pay a premium for organic products, which are supposed to be produced without synthetic fertilizer and genetic engineering.

“The lack of controls at U.S. ports of entry increases the risk that non-organic products may be imported as organic into the United States and could create an unfair economic environment for U.S. organic producers,” the report said.

Foreign purchases of organic corn and soybeans — used as feed for cows and chickens — have been skyrocketing in recent years, particularly from Turkey. Earlier this year, some organic certifiers said they were tightening standards on imports amid concerns of fraud.

The USDA in June revoked the organic certificate of a Turkish grain and oilseed handler that had sold organic soybeans that were fumigated with aluminum phosphide, a substance not allowed under organic rules.

The increase in imports is “a new phenomenon,” said Peter Golbitz, founder of Florida-based consulting firm Agromeris. “It certainly overwhelmed the system in place, and it’s now recognized that better communication needs to occur between the agencies involved in oversight and import regulations.”

This is especially vexing, since I’m paying an exorbitant amount of money for goods that are supposed to be chemical and GMO free. I am not surprised, however, that foreign savages are hoodwinking us American do-gooders and fleecing us of our money.

There are two major themes in tech that you need to be paying attention to now. The first being the adoption of OLED technology, which will replace LED/LCD and the upgrade cycle at data-centers from 40g to 100g. You could do a cursory google search to understand what this means, engineering wise and why it’s so important. I’m just here to give you some trading ideas. I do not provide this information selflessly, but expect YOU FUCKING RETARDS to do some due diligence, report back to me, in order to vet out the best ideas.

Let’s establish a few facts. Web services is quickly becoming the domain of Amazon’s AWS. Agreed?

If AWS is undergoing a major upgrade cycle, those who supply services to Amazon stand to benefit. Agreed?

Good.

Just like with my OLED thesis, there are ancillary plays, like COHR, that will reward shareholders will immense gains, even more than the actual producers of the product.

The same could be said about the AWS upgrade cycle.

I mentioned some ideas in Exodus today. Here is what I’ve come up with so far. Bear in mind, this sector is about to catch fire again, after today’s announcement that Amazon was reducing pricing for AWS.

AAOI, GIMO, AXTI, NPTN, ACIA, MTSI, OCLR, ANET, LITE, IPHI, FNSR.

Today’s gains in AAOI were a long time coming, ever since the stock collapsed after last quarter’s earning disappointment.

The risk with owning AAOI is customer concentration. Because Amazon is such a big customer of theirs, they’re exposed to the possibility that Amazon will pressure them on margins and/or choose a different supplier. To hedge this risk, providing you wanted to play this sector, buy a basket of stocks and quit trying to get rich off one name.

The other major narrative in tech is semiconductor processing power — led by stocks like LRCX and NVDA. We see to be in a perfect case scenario where companies are innovating, yet not cutting each other’s throats over pricing. This cannot last forever. Eventually, they’ll try to grab share again by reducing prices, eroding margins and share prices.

For now, especially in the OLED rollout, we are in the early innings and there is a lot more room for upside.

Disclosure: Long OLED.

With the tech industry moving away from LCD displays to OLED, suppliers are in the crunch. The new Apple X boasts an OLED display, ‘cutting edge’ horseshit — but it widely rumored to be scrambling to find a sufficient amount of supply to reach their demand — which has resulted in a boom for OLED stocks.

This from USA Today, today:

Apple’s iPhone X boasts a cutting-edge screen bursting with crisp, bright images, the sort of eye-popping technology that gets consumers to line up to spend $1,000 or moreon the device.

But that line will be long and slow: Apple won’t start shipping the redesigned phone until Nov. 3, more than seven weeks after it was unfurled Tuesday.

The reason is as crystal clear as iPhone X’s new OLED screen. OLED manufacturers can’t build the screens fast enough as they increasingly pop up on smartphones, high-definition TVs, watches, virtual reality headsets and other gizmos. It’s an issue that not only is dogging Apple, costing it billions of dollars in short-term sales, but has tripped up Samsung, HTC and Google, too.

“It’s an industry issue,” says Ben Wood, an analyst at CCS Insight, a research firm headquartered in London. “There is a lack of manufacturing capacity for OLED and a lower yield of screens that meet (quality) standards.”

Apple declined comment on OLED delays.

Both Samsung and LG are investing up to $20 billion on OLED production to meet demand. It has gotten so bad, thanks to Apple, that smaller companies are being forced to switch back to LCD because Samsung is busy servicing Apple’s needs first.

Doing a cursory search inside Exodus, I found only a handful of OLED plays, one of which I am unfamiliar with.

This one is obvious, OLED, a major supplier to Samsung. I just bought some today. I realize I’m a little late to the party. But in reality, the party is just beginning.

Another play is LPL (LG) and the one I am least familiar with is EMAN. With zero revenue ramp, I am reticent about buying that one. Another small cap one is KOPN.

Another OLED play, one that isn’t obvious to those just chomping charts all day (because this requires reading) is UCTT. They attribute a large part of their recent success and margins ramp due to their contract manufacturing for OLED. Another OLED fab is ORBK and has been ramping daily. Get with the program.

As an aside, I bought Chinese wafer foundry SMI today — because I could.

Wait, there’s more.

These guys supply the lasers to the manufacturers who make OLEDs. What?! Stop the presses. COHR is a fucking maniacal beast.

Wait a second, Bove is a bank bear? When did that happen? Apparently, he was and is now taking a victory lap around the asshatted bulls who swore that bank stocks were heading higher.

Guess what, jackass? They’re not.

Source: CNBC, authored by Mr. Bove himself

Stock buybacks are done for financial engineering purposes. The reality for banks is that capital is the core source of bank earnings. It is the basis of leveraging the bank balance sheet and making loans. If a bank reduces capital it lowers its ability to earn money; weakens its secular growth prospects. Why would anyone want to buy a company which is lowering its growth potential to play “stock market?”

Also, even though there is likely to be some easing in bank regulations, this is not key to results. At the moment, living under draconian regulations, which have effectively nationalized the banking industry, banks keep reporting record earnings as noted above.

At the most basic level, it is clear when evaluating any company the first issue is “How are sales?” “Are you selling your products?” For some odd reason, no one want to ask banks that question. Yet banks are like every other company. They have specific products – most importantly loans and capital market offerings.

They have to sell these products to grow earnings. In the past year, this has not been a positive development. Virtually every product they sell is either not selling or selling at a much slower rate than a year ago. This includes commercial and industrial loans, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, and even non-residential real estate loans. Trading stocks has not been great, and investment banking is slowing. Why should I or anyone else buy into a slowing sales cycle?

Plus, it is very important that the products that banks sell be of the highest quality. They are no longer in that category; bad loans are creeping up.

Bottom line, all the financial gimmickry and false hypothesizing in the world is not going to offset the very real fact that banks need to sell more products to bolster their stock prices. One hopes that they will do this. If they do then it will be time to buy these stocks.

Did you hear that, shit heads? The gig is up. You can no longer hide behind financial gimmickry. Dick Move just pulled your card and now you’re feeling all stupid, and shit.

As an aside, banks are higher by 0.4% today, completely ignoring the missives of a Mr. Dick Bove. My FAZ is off by 1%, but my XIV is trucking forward. It’s actually a pretty shitty bull market day, with just 61% of stocks green for the session.

If XIV doesn’t hit a new record high, I’ll eat the contents of a trash can on a livestream,