Repetitive Bullshit — San Fran-Fucking-Cisco Pretends to Be a Normal City

Any idea how monotonous this is for me? I can do this shit from my phone and without any information and still crush markets every single year without ever falling behind schedule. I used to get very excited about my wins, especially when I managed money professionally — based solely on when I was able to change lives and/or make spectacular paychecks. But now my reward for trading excellence is dealing with drug addicts and wastrels — men of sub-mental qualities discussing the virtues of being homeless. There are times I think about offering bad advice on purpose — but refrain because I have rather stringent moral ethics and would always help my fellow man in need, providing said fellow man wasn’t a drug addict wastrel and homeless in the streets of San Francisco.

Speaking of which, Gavin Newsom might’ve ordered the execution of thousands of homeless men and women traversing the landscape of San Francisco, or perhaps he sent them into the sewers. Either way, they’re nowhere to be found now and he admits the city was cleaned the fuck up for President Xi of China.

You can view this piece of news and become angry — or you can look at the brighter side of things. All of our problems in America today can be fixed, if only the men leading us were motivated. The illegals can be scooped the fuck up and shipped the fuck out. The criminals can be executed and dropped in mass graves. You get my drift.

Alas back to markets, the ever interesting story of stocks and their inane trajectory. I am moderately bullish but need stocks to crash in order to satiate my seething hatred that’s all bottled up inside. We want vengeance and retribution and violence and all of the wonderous things that mark the tables of time and history.

On the issues of violence — the plebeian class has always been angered by what they deemed to be unjust and yet history books are filled with the virtues of the Mongols, Alexander the Great, Napoleon, and the allies in WW2. Were they the “good guys?” It doesn’t matter. History is written by the victors and the victors are the one’s hailing from superior civilizations that are able to leverage it into military might.

If the Arabs wanted to stop Israel they would but they can’t, so the merry-go-round continues as natural selection intended — afflicting the weak with the will of the strong — broadcasted live for all to see and you can do nothing about it but stop eating at McDonald’s.

I’m not falling for this rally shit. The NASDAQ was hammered at the open and ran straight the fuck up since then. I just can’t help myself but to HATE the market. Something must be wrong with me.

I have a $TZA position against some longs and am down only 10bps — but there is a fire inside of me that wants to place it all on SQQQ and then pray for its downfall. But don’t worry — I am a professional and would never do anything reckless.

There isn’t anything to analyze with this tape. We have all of the information needed to draw conclusions. Now it’s simply up to money flow and sentiment. At the moment it seems the GLOBOHOMO is ascendent, creating gays at an industrial rate all overt the west — whilst at the same time genociding the whites. Some whites are really mad about it — but about half have been psyop’d into not only accepting their own liquidation but embrace it. What else can I say?

For the remainder of the session, I intend to be active — pressing larger bets into the close. I have been trading carefully because my gains are +7% and I’ve always hated squandering gains more than anything else. I can more easily accept losing 5% of a month than squandering a 5% gain and closing flat. I’d rather lose money than blow a lead.

If it weren’t for national feast day looming, I’d be a heavy seller here. Today we have all of the monsters out of the closet: higher rates, oil, lower stocks.

Cryptos are weak too but there is a stubbornness about this tape that holds me back from committing either way. Truth is, when the market is like this it usually goes higher.

I’ll likely find some stocks to buy near session highs, but risk no more than 10% of my assets, leaving upwards of 40% cash. Since I don’t have strong convictions about the direct, I’ll take it easy until I figure it out.

Down 19bps early going.

When I was 7 years old my mother bought me a cassette stereo and automatic phonograph, which meant when the record ended the needle would detect it and return back to the holder. My sister, who is 5 years older than me — wasn’t as lucky. She had an 8-track stereo with a phonograph that wasn’t automatic. While I was able to record from the radio with my cassettes — she was forced to use her Atari styled cartridges with very little flexibility or capacity.

As a boy I remember being enamored by simple pleasures we take for granted today: toasters, vacuums, blenders, irons, cassette walkman, video game consoles, colored TVs, VCRs, power steering in cars, cable TV — high speed fucking elevators.

In the 90s I remember when the CD was launched and one of my friends showed us his CD-walkman. It was almost unbelievable when I examined it, so new and advanced — and it set the table for a series of technological innovations that would soon change the entertainment industry. From 8 track players to cassettes to CDs to DVDs to the truly phenomenal Apple iPod and digitally stored music and movies — the electronics industry was a source of wonderment for Americans.

People used to revel in the innovation of technology, argue about betamax vs VCR, extol the virtues of the microwave oven and spend hours inside the electronics department looking at plasma, LCD and LED televisions.

That wonder has been destroyed in America, thanks in large part to government meddling into privacy and a general distrust for BIG TECH because of their eager compliance and very political employees.

Last week former employees of Apple unveiled a new AI powered pin/phone/amazing piece of technology — and no one gave a shit.

I showed my kids and some younger people and, almost universally, they’re disinterested to instant hating it, which is a byproduct of their disgust with their smartphone experience’s and how social media is both addictive and toxic. I completely understand why they feel this way and I feel like something has been stolen from them, the excitement of human innovation should be celebrated by all. But for whatever reason, in our current timeline, our society is increasingly cynical, untrusting, and malicious.

Tech geeks used to be just tech geeks; but now they’re very wealthy power hungry bastards and they employ radicalized people who are spiteful and unfriendly — diving people by race and political leanings. It’s total fucking rot and it’s a damn shame.

I am going to take a break from talking shit and boasting about how wonderful I am and actually provide you with a service, a view into the market to identify some longer term trends. Some of the complaints that I get for Stocklabs is that it’s geared heavily towards day trading, which is what I prefer to do. There are people out there, apparently, who work at companies and cannot trade 100 times per day. This post is for those work-slobs.

Median returns, 1 year
Median return for “all stocks”: -3.9%
Basic Materials -7.5%
Consumer Goods -7%
Financials -10.5%
Healthcare -8.8%
Industrials +9.6%
Services -3.1%
Tech +9.1%
Utilities -8.9%

As you can see from the data above just two areas of the market have been ‘safe.’

Now let’s look at those same sectors but affix a minimum market cap of $10b to them.

Median returns, 1 year (min cap $10b)
Median return for “all stocks”: +1.3%
Basic Materials -1.28%
Consumer Goods -7.7%
Financials -4.3%
Healthcare -7.4%
Industrials +6.5%
Services +5.7%
Tech +19.5%
Utilities -8.8%

Wow, we can make some easy assumptions here. We want to focus on larger capped stocks and avoid buying “cheap” small caps based on our narcism. With a minimum market cap, we see material improvement in the following industries: basic materials, services, financials and tech.

Let’s dig deeper into those areas. My assumption here, as a principle while investing — things in motion tend to remain in motion and today’s trend will be tomorrow’s. There are exceptions to this thinking, mostly when accosted by small cap stocks. But generally speaking, larger cap trends remain for long periods of time.

For the next set of data I am going to showcase the top 10 ranked stocks in basics, services, financials and tech using Stocklabs 1 year technical ranks, which is the aggregate scores on a 1-5 scale, 5 being best, for the past year.

Financials: $ACGL, $APO, $BBVA, $UBS, $ARES, $MUFG, $SMFG, $MFG, $AJG, $ING
Bascis: $PR, $SCCO, $LIN, $PAA, $MPC, $SLB, $BKR, $TRGP, $HAL, $DD
Services: $BLDR, $DKNG, $RCL, $UBER, $URI, $TTD, $ODFL, $RYAAY, $FDX, $USFD
Tech: $NVDA, $JBL, $SMCI, $AVGO, $ORCL, $META, $DELL, $ANET, $SAP, $SPOT

Analysis: My broad assumptions is there is a bull market in foreign domiciled banks, very large oil services, logistics operators and a heavy focus on tera cap monopolies with an emphasis on the proliferation of AI.

Here is some further insight into the type of companies being bought the past year:

Median, 1yr

Revenues: $19.9b
Earnings $1.9b
FCF $3b
FCF growth +39%
EPS growth +29%
Rev growth +9.9%
Gross margins +47%
Debt/market cap: 0.15x

The median market cap for the above stocks is $37b.

Conclusion: for longer term investors, take your portfolios and mine the data I just provided for you to compare and contrast. Once you find outliers in your portfolios, replace them with names that fit into this very specific framework. Ultimately, you’ll be investing in great companies and you’ll possess a clear vision for what deserves to be in your portfolios for the longer term and what is temporary.

I hope this helps a little.

Good day.

Listen to me —

There are two types of people in this world — those who can do things and those who talk about doing things. You are now encountering a person who is able to do things, all sorts of things. For example, today I traded very well without risk — closing up 43bps for the session — extending the length of my cock to +7.1% for November.

For those of you who did not follow me into a bullish position for the month of November, you have only yourselves to blame. Warnings were sent out liberally about betting against the fat man heading into National Feast Day. The instructions were as plain as they were explicit, yet you and your ego were unable to deal with this and now you are RACKED heavily with losses and your families fortunes have been ruined. Once the money goes, both the wife and kids will leave you. After all, there is a not so secret dynamic to a happy marriage and it goes as follows.

Men must maintain their income to afford a certain level of quality for his wife and children.

Women must remain thin and attractive.

Should anything get in the way of this dynamic, the kids and the wife leave to find some other man with means.

Do not shoot the messenger. Stop being poor.

Over the weekend, House Fly will partake in fine dining and some fall landscaping. Things are good and they will continue to stay that way, as I am the principle bread winner of my domain and my achievements are at recourd highs amidst the brilliance of both my timing and my position. Amidst the pomp and circumstance and the veneer of success of The Fly, which at times ebbs into cartoonist qualities, lies a very serious man who is about serious business who is solely fixed and focused on the legacy of greatness.

Life isn’t fair and never has been. You can view this weeks trading as metaphorical for what to expect in life. There are times when the underclass thrives under the auspices of bubbles, frantic rushes into assets that cause them to inflate, creating unprofessional swindlers to pretend to be experts in all manner of things — elucidating the opportunities abound. We saw them after COVID shine in their magnificent greasy glory — instructing the masses and the masses took onto them like barnacles to a lobster. It wasn’t long before said lobster got trapped in a cage and retrieved to be eaten. The barnies were shucked off the lobster and discarded like the trash they were back into the sea.

For the week the NASDAQ is +2% and the Russell 2000 is down 4%. Any idea what it means?

I will be your guru and request nothing other than your attention.

It means the underclass cadre of investor is bedraggled and destitute. He keeps trying to capture lightening in a bottle to enrich himself in order to buy things because buying things makes him feeeeeeeeeeel better about himself.

A great man once said “you’re not your fucking khakis” and I rather agree with that sentiment, in spite of the fact that I own 20 pairs of khakis.

The only way to trade seriously is to take serious bets with serious risk analysis set by serious goals. The idea that $AMC will go to $1,000 based upon the feeeeeeeelings inside your testicles is more than hilarious. People of that ilk should be executed, post haste — heads cleaved clean of their bodies.

For the session, I am +20bps — because I had big shorts in the morning and I courrected the errors of my ways and got very long and here I am now telling you about it.

I wasn’t going to blog after the close today as I felt it was beneath a person in my station to do so. I ended the session +48bps in flawless trading, increasing my returns for November to +6.7%. Juxtaposed against the harrowing experience bulls faced today, with the small caps knifing lower to the tune of 1.75%, I’d be remiss if I didn’t inform you, rather emphatically, how fortunate you are to have me here telling you what’s going to happen next.

Most people are expecting some spectacular event to harangue us, arresting markets in zero bid pin action. But the most likely outcome is the one we’re on — slow and methodical moves lower betwixt by massive ramps — frustrating the amateur trader into retirement.

My overall philosophy is as follows:

Allocate primarily into large capped stocks, in excess of $10 billion. Do not believe in the runaway bull no matter how alluring the idea might be. As a risk off hedge, both gold and Bitcoin offer unique price action that can perform in both up or down tapes. I am largely bullish on both assets.

When in doubt, hedge your portfolios with very large inverse ETFs positions, but close them out every morning.

After 8 consecutive days up, we finally traded lower. I hope the bears do not become overzealous by just 1 small victory after two weeks of non-stop losses.

A good trader is neither hot or cold and weathers all storms in a most resolute and professional manner. Look at me — stoic and collected in the face of irrational investor behavior, the result of decades of experience and natural talents bestowed by the Gods for the benefit of, but not limited to, the garrulous third estate canaille, nouveau riche, monkey brained class-less parvenus grifters.

Good day.

Look at how nice things were before the TREASURY AUCTION GONE AWRY!

For a professional explaining, go to ZH for the details. If you want to hear a nice fucking story, stay here.

When I started in the business circa 1997, I vividly recalled TREASURY AUCTIONS being all the rages. It was probably 1998 when a really bad one caused stocks to CRASH and halt for the remainder of the session. I remember seeing brokers pulling out their hair, unsure as to what to do. No one wanted our fucking bonds and it made people sad. Shortly after that, we had the LTCM crisis and markets really didn’t like that.

Whether this auction means anything at all is a moot issue. The fact that markets responded to it by jacking up rates and crushing down stocks means we are in a new paradigm where every tick on the 10yr matters.

Because I am a wise man, omnipresent and all knowing, I took off my hedges on the initial swoop lower and then reapplied them with even more weight in anticipation for a CRASHING OF THE FUCKING CLOSE.

I’ve been saying this feels like 2018 price action. If that’s the case, consider the fact Nov 2018 closed up 1.7% for the month and we’re already up 3%. Also, Nov 2018 was wretched up until the end. Perhaps some strong BLACK FRIDAY data bailed it out. You damn well know this BLACK FRIDAY will be featured in 3D, with hordes of people robbing stores blind. They’ll rush into stores, just like before, but this time they’ll loot everything in sight.

Nov daily price action, 2018

I closed out all of my positions in trading except for the $TZA; and I’m higher by 45bps. The gains are in large part thanks to $MSTR, as $BTC careens higher. I’m a big fan of Bitcoin.

The other notable concern today is the price of oil is rebounding, providing succor to an otherwise pathetic cadre of big oil investors. For all of the hype, oil has been a fantastic disappointment for more than a year.

We never did get the big spike to $150.

Lastly, rates are higher by 5bps. Keep your beady little evil eyes on them and be mindful the market might’ve already achieved the gains for November. We might even backslide a bit until after Thanksgiving to get a better look at holiday sales and shrinkage.