Here’s Me Predicting a Brighter Future

Since this blog has been, more or less, one doom cast after the next for the past 3 years, I thought I’d mix it up and think ‘outside the box’ and offer you some glimmers of hope in an otherwise apocalyptic landscape.

The war in Ukraine will wind down peacefully, leaving Russia in the Donbas and Zelensky in Kiev, who will then be re-elected President to preside in Brussels as the newest member of NATO. We will then station nuclear missiles inside Kiev and battleships in Odessa to assert US hegemony.

The war in Gaza will end without any of its neighbors intervening. In the end, Israel and the US will convince and cajole, threaten even, Egypt to create a new city for Gazans. Israel will then settle the newly captured territories and continue working on the new trade corridor from China through Saudi Arabia through Israel into Europe.

With the wars concluded, the US can then focus on the real threats to the country: COMMUNIST CHINA and white supremacists.

We will arm Taiwan with nuclear missiles to prevent a Chinese incursion, whilst at the same time declare the “one China policy”, where we pretend to believe Taiwan is still part of China, to still be official US doctrine — all but gaslighting the Chinese to death. Since 20-30% of our Ivy leagues are populated by Chinese students, we might need to place limits on our “elite making institutions” in order to protect American democracy.

Lastly the issues of white supremacy must be stomped out for good. The final solution will be to mandate that at least 60% of government jobs and in the private sector employ “persons of color.” Reparations for the blacks will also be necessary by affixing a 10% tax to all whites for the sins of the people who had their skin color back in the early 1800s.

Protected groups will include gays, trans, law enforcement, and those married to a person of color.

With these new programs in place, the pervasive evils of white supremacy can finally be stomped out and Americans can continue to loot and shoot each other to their heart’s desire, without the annoyance of laws and order — liberal democratic ideals that produced slavery and Chinese railroad workers.

When I switched sides to the transgendered bulls, the comments section was bedlam — people decrying that I was a ‘traitor to my people’ and how I had marked ‘the top’ and had ‘gotten in too late.’ I always am amused and find it curious to see how people respond to my market calls, akin to some random fat slob in the stands offering advice to Babe Ruth on how to hit a fastball.

Good Sirs, I have long established a rich history in trading success here. I have proven all of my critics wrong to the point they no longer exist outside of the shadows and can only call me things in the privacy of their homes.

I STAND BEFORE YOU A CHAMPION AMONGST CHAMPIONS, +360bps for the session — fully robed and honored by the Gods amidst heavily perfumed rooms and decadent surroundings. With a small portion of my winnings, I might venture out to buy a luxury watch, or not. It’s entirely up to me, as I am the master of my own destiny and no one can stop me.

Today’s rally was buoyed most by the collapse in rates, all but factoring in a 100bps cut in 2024. If you look closely into what stocks moved most, they were the companies most distressed, free cash flow burners in the biotech and tech sectors. These were the companies left for dead last week, renewed this week by dreams of lower rates and access to capital. At the end of the day, this is what is driving the market — the relationship between capital and the cost to borrow it.

The long narrative is entirely driven by this point and should rates jimmy back higher next week, this entire move will be revoked.

Due to my aversion to being tricked into fanciful ideas, I took a bearish position on bonds by shorting them, opened up hedges against the fucking scientists in the biotech field and took a variety of defensive long positions with 34% reserved in cash. It’s worth mentioning I also have a volatility long, as the VIX straddles a 15 handle in a global environment that can produce world war.

The average return for the $IWM is +2.7% for November. We are already +6%, so put that into perspective when you mindlessly and stupidly call for more upside in this environ.

Playing devil’s advocate, should rates not climb and earnings continue to come in as expected, there’s no reason why we can’t trade up another 3-5% from now to December. It’s worth mentioning that I believe we are mirroring the price action of late 2018. If at all curious, which I am sure you’re not, go ahead and check out what the fucking NASDAQ did during December of 2018.

Have a pleasant fucking weekend.

There were those out there who didn’t heed my warnings, but you had ample time to position accordingly. I perfectly navigated both the downside and now the upside and the only thing left for me to do is to revel in my glory and splendor and tell you to fuck off.

Today’s bounty.

Up 3.32% for the session. Annual gains approach +50%: RECOURD HIGHS.

At the moment I’m 100% cash in my trading, enjoying the fruits of my labor.

I will make this brief because I do not have time to talk to any of you.

This is not an opinion but an announcement based on fact. The doom and gloomers have been dispatched and their heads cut off. The Biden Bull Market is back with full compliments — highlighted by grandiose and eloquent price action into the final hour of trade cajoled me into the largest bullish positions in centuries, for yours truly.

I carved out gains of +207bps — but my real focus is on tomorrow. Into the weekend, a time and place when anything can happen, I do not want as much long exposure as I have now. The seasonal trends are in fact ROBUST — but we mustn’t believe the extension of the rally will proceed without pauses and bumps along the way.

The green light is visible amidst the din of yellow cocktail music. Do not permit your intense inner hatred falsely color your outlook on equities in the short term. You’d be wise to remember that I am the most bearish man in America and have switched sides, albeit temporarily, in order to finance my operations.

Can I be wrong here and markets head back lower?

Absolutely not.

Good day.

When I’m not on X ginning up controversy, I’m in my time machine — traversing space and time to help me with my stock picks. Much of what we do is predicated on our feeeeeeelings; but from time to time we take the 30,000 foot view and truly analyze the situation, concoct a plan, act upon said plan, and within a few days ditch said plan in exchange for our feeeeeelings again.

This blog is about all of that. I will introduce to you a cogent plan for November, which will make sense to both you and I — but neither of us will actually heed the analysis and do whatever the fuck we wanted to do anyway.

Here goes.

$SHOP beat earnings, which means the consumer isn’t as desolate and poor as we once hoped. Using the seasonality tools inside Stocklabs, I found some very obvious trends for November.

Retail is all of the rage, much to do about BLACK FRIDAY and barreling headlong, fat and gay, into the pagan holidays.

How pervasive is this? Quite.

It is, by far, the best month for shares of $WMT — going back all the way to 1972.

That’s right fucked face. Walmart has traded higher 72% of the time in November going back 50 fucking years.

The $QQQ trades up 76% of the time in November, going back to 1999. This is the best month for stocks — hands down.

So this is what we want to do. Listen to be very closely.

WE WANT TO BUY THE FUCKING MARKET, LEAN INTO HER. FOCUS ON RETAIL AND INGRATIATE OURSELVES IN THE RICHES WE DESERVE — TAKING PROFITS ALONG THE WAY — AVOIDING TEMPTATION AND THE ALLURE TO SELL IT SHORT.

As a small aside, oil doesn’t bode well during the holidays. The seasonal trends are much stronger than you’d believe.

Back to work fucked faces. You have information now and guidance to act upon. Make me proud.

I went from confounded to King of the Market overnight. After all of my hemming and hawing about the market on the verge of collapse, i just made a ransom fully long, fully erect, into the perverted open you witness before your very eyes.

Good things happen to good people.

Some of you might say “fuck you Fly — you just got lucky with those Canadian faggots at Shopify”. But you’d be wrong about that, as you are wrong about most things in life. Unlike you, I did my research, peered into the future by looking into the past. Do you know what I saw?

FUCK YOU PAL, that’s what I saw.

There are two types of people in this world: those who talk shit and those who do shit. Whilst you sit there in your ridiculous chair trying to etch out a profitable trade or two, find solace in knowing “The Fly” made your annual salary today and will now proceed to take it easy until late afternoon.

+201bps for the session, now 85% cash.

I spent my day reading and listening to rag time music, trading poorly — but positioning bullishly into tomorrow. I had said to myself “avoid selling short in November you fuck” and even wrote a memo for myself. Lo and behold the market opened and I only wanted to short it. I paid for this with my money and ended the session losing 34bps.

My losses were small because I had many longs and made good money on them. After the Powell QnA today I thought for sure markets would fall into hell, roasting the longs in a giant cauldron of spite. The opposite occurred and the bulls sashayed all the way higher, dancing freely and gayly, adored with rainbow feathers and patent leather tap dancing shoes.

The NASDAQ jumped 210, yet the small caps didn’t even make it past +0.4%.

We had some fucking collapses too, with shares of $EL -18%, $PAYC -39%, $MTCH -15% and what seemed like a never ending array of house fires — yet the overall picture netted a positive result. Markets like this cause me to trade over-cautiously and as a result — I missed out.

As a younger man, I probably would’ve kept buying under the auspices of mysterious hands guiding markets inevitably higher. I might’ve called an older Fly a “piece of shit old fucker who didn’t know what the fuck he was doing.” Older Fly would then poison younger Fly’s energy soda and kill him — to stop him from making all of the mistakes he was bound to make in his evergreen quest to become “the best trader of all time.”

I have learned many things trading, when to press bets and when how to read the room for risk. But most of all I’ve learned my own limitations and no longer possess an ego that gets in the way of my performance. It’s ok to miss a rally or blow a trade. It’s not rational to behave like a 25 year old when you’re in your 40s with a family. The best trade is the one that positions you for profit, without too much potential downside and this is easily achieved through position sizing, diversification, and a natural talent for peering into the future to decipher the codes to unlocking eternal success and a roaring passion to win — even at the cost of happiness, which of course is entirely overrated.

Powell is speaking now and the market initially gapped up only to gap right the fuck back down. Basically, we are circle jerking — going nowhere and fast.

The second you think we are busting loose — BAM — right the fuck back down.

We live in a curious world with clowns running the show. I want to be bullish. I have some hedges and want to close them out — but the market isn’t complying with the rules of decency and honor.

The Fed has stopped hiking rates; but have made statements such as the following.

FED’S POWELL: FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARLY TIGHTENED
FED’S POWELL: OVER TIME THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT, WE JUST DON”T KNOW HOW QUICKLY THAT WILL BE.
FED’S POWELL: WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT POLICY IS SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE.
POWELL REFUSES TO SAY HOW MANY RATE HIKES THE RECENT SURGE IN RATES AND TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IS EQUIVALENT TO

Let me translate. The Fed doesn’t know how the hikes will adversely affect the economy but do know it will slow it down. They also are talking tough and warning people they’ll strike again if the inflation terrorists rear their heads again. They are purposely obfuscating in order to admit the obvious truth: the economy will spiral into recession in 2024 and there is nothing that can stop that from happening now.

I really want to be long head into National Festival Day. I can see me now, the hero, saving western finance from the pangs of resolution — lifting the indices to new RECOURD HIGHS — having called it and having made all of the money from it. But today’s tape is attempting to change my mind, as the small caps once again sink into hell, off by 0.8%.

The rest of the market is up and rates are down — but this isn’t a “good tape” and if you’re heavily long you ought to take a break and look into the mirror — really gaze into it — and ask yourselves “is this what I’ve become?”

I have hedges now, short the fucking scientists and short the small caps. I didn’t want to do it, but my hands were tied. I really had no choice in the matter.

I think I’ll get some coffee now, perhaps eat a bit. I haven’t eaten all day because I’m not a fat and don’t awaken with the intend to eat right away like a slob. I might not eat until 5pm. Sometimes I can go a bit further.

I am down 5bps today, perfectly balanced amidst longs and shorts — demonstrated unparalleled wisdom, grace and discipline.

Good Sirs, I’d like to elucidate some hard facts for you as we enter the month of November. Generally speaking, stocks behave in a most genial manner and you’d be wise not to take large bets against them, betting against America into National Feast day.

Over the past decade, the NASDAQ traded down just once in November — usually spearheaded by companies that feed the fats. Morbidly obese Americans tend to wade into grocery stores with extra verve this time of year — making vats of gravy and stocking up on marshed mellows, cans of greens, and oversized turkeys.

Listen to me, you have to be both tactical and strategic in this tape. Do not send your army into fortified pickets. November is a month for Americans to reminisce of the good olde days when we took the land we wanted, in exchange for some seashells and shovels. We had grandiose feasts to celebrate America’s ascendency and hated anyone who said otherwise. Although we’re quickly plunging down the sewer pipes into collapse, during the month of November we pretend we aren’t. After all, it’s fun to pretend.

For the session, I reversed my bearish position and made it a 118% leveraged long one — up 102bps for the day — booking a return of 2.6% for October. I will outperform the market in November and again December and every month thereafter, as it is my right to do so. Some of you might be great cooks or can wield a hot mop on the rooftop like no-one else; but this is my trade and I excel at it on a level you can only dream of, not just because I put in the extra effort and have decades of experience — but because I have been hand selected by Gods to do this and help others navigate the turbulent waters as we conclude the once wonderful experiment called western finance.