iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,468 Blog Posts

Doubled Up on $HUBS, Quant Picks Posted — Stepped into a New Burrito

Nice day so far, especially for me. Overall, the market is not doing much, other than jerk Tim Cook’s noodle.

Exodus Quant posted a +2.25% return for July, slightly hampered by the rotation shift out of small caps into large. If you’re not paying attention, that’s what happened. As a result, for August, I am now allocated into mega cap stocks — companies valued at more than $100b. The portfolio has been purchased and is now live inside the platform.

Additionally, thanks to the zeal provided by the ZEN beat, I am more than confident in my HUBS position. I doubled up on it and made it a 10% position.

Lastly, I want to believe the Chinese burritos are primed to move. I am long IQ and hopeful the gains will continue. I wanted to add to my exposure to the space, without having to chase something, so I bought BITA. Stop is well defined at ~24. It’s heavily shorted and trending higher, so I’m thinking this fucker is poised to break the fuck out to the upside soon.

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Trump Ratchets Up Trade War — China Threatens to Retaliate, “The Fly” Wins Again

Any questions?

China said on Wednesday that “blackmail” wouldn’t work and that it would hit back if the United States takes further steps hindering trade, as the Trump administration considers slapping a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

The proposal would increase the potential tariff rate from 10 percent the administration had initially put forward on July 10 for that wave of duties in a bid to pressure Beijing into making trade concessions, a source familiar with the plan said on Tuesday.

The tariffs target thousands of Chinese imports, including food products, chemicals, steel and aluminum and consumer goods ranging from dog food, furniture and carpets to car tires, bicycles, and baseball gloves and beauty products.

While the duties would not be imposed until after a period of public comment, raising the proposed level to 25 percent would escalate the already bitter trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.

The math is simple here. Trump is creating drama from which he can become queen. He takes said crisis and then solves it — hence making him an American hero. This is retard level diplomacy — but is the essence of “the art of the deal.”

Meanwhile back on earth, Le Fly scored a win to offset a series of unfortunate events in ZEN. I have no reason to be cocky over a singular victory — but I’ll probably do it anyway — because why the hell not?

I have an uneasy feeling about Apple racing towards $1 trillion market cap, people somewhat ebullient about the market bouncing, and the news flow — which is dreadful.

Cash levels are still ~50% and I’ll be reshuffling the chairs on the decks of my Quant portfolio today — switching over to mega-caps. Remember to tell all of your friends and family, even retarded cousins, about FreeStockAlgos.com.

See you inside Exodus.

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I Ride Alone — Time For You to Get Off Now

Both IQ and ZEN are slated to report earnings tonight. I don’t give a shit and have supreme confidence in ZEN to rig their earnings in a most repeatable way. They are, without question, one of the hottest companies in SAAS now. I see no reason why they should miss, unless of course they’re having personnel issues — which can easily be fixed.

Today’s market was okay. Truth be told, I expected a lot worse yesterday and a lot more this afternoon. I need to realign my expectations with reality.

Here’s why I’m somewhat optimistic about the market, especially tech, near term. This is our predictive oscillator in Exodus — the algorithms that I always talk about. Here they are in chart form for the tech sector and application software.

If you want your stocks graded, feel free to access our algos free from charge at FreeStockAlgos.com. Bear with me as I self-promote from time to time.

NOTE: Today is the final day of July, which means tomorrow the Exodus Quant undergoes a face lift. By the looks of it, the portfolio will be fully liquidated and replaced with a new market cap quintile. Start a 7 day free trial today and gain access to the picks tomorrow morning.

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It’s Over BurritoFAGS: Potentially Hundreds of People Sickened From Filthy and Disgusting Chipotle in Ohio

The stock has performed admirably over the past year — but now people are deathly ill from eating from the restaurant again and this affliction could number in the hundreds. There isn’t a chance in fat hell this goes away in a day.

PREPARE FOR A MOST ARDUOUS SUMMER, BURRITOFAGS.

Chipotle told CNBC Tuesday morning that the health department received two illness complaints, but by Tuesday afternoon the Delaware General Health District reported receiving “over 100 calls and climbing.”

Delaware Health said it is “currently investigating several possible food-borne illness reports stemming from Chipotle on Sawmill Road [in Powell].” It has also asked that people who have experienced symptoms reach out to the Communicable Disease Team.

A Chipotle spokesperson wasn’t immediately available to comment on the latest report from the health department.

On Monday night, Chipotle spokeswoman Laurie Schalow described the scope of the issue as “a handful of illness reports at one restaurant in Powell, OH.” And added, “We acted quickly and closed this single restaurant out of an abundance of caution and we are working with the local health officials to reopen this restaurant as soon as possible.”

But now there is the possibility that this outbreak is larger than initially believed.

While Baird analyst David Tarantino maintained his outperform rating for the brand Monday, he said consumer sentiment and traffic to other Chipotle restaurants could take a hit if the incident remains in the media spotlight for too long.

“While we are optimistic that the media coverage of the Ohio restaurant closing will prove to be short-lived and ultimately result in an immaterial event for the brand, the lack of visibility creates a new risk factor that is worth monitoring very closely (in our opinion), and based on that dynamic, we would be more patient in putting new money to work in CMG in the short run,” Tarantino wrote in a note to investors Monday.

This is the death-knell — the moment in time that marked the end of the franchise once famously known as Chipotle. The brand has been tarnished beyond repair and is now synonymous with being a house of ill repute.

Curious what Exodus thinks about CMG — access grading system free of charge at FreeStockAlgos.com

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In a Car Made of Dynamite Heading For the Sun

Last year I wrote and published two short stories about my time coming up and down in the business. In hindsight, I don’t know what the fuck came over me to bargain I could write books — as I found the process both exhilarating and incredibly obtuse; but it reminded me of yesteryear and how I always pressed the pedal all the way down when approaching bull markets. I rarely exhibited restraint, which I’ve found is something that is acquired, like a bad taste, as one ages.

In many ways, I’m the same person as I was in 2000, impulsive and brave, careless, and deliberate in my approach to maximize returns. My one deviation has been to allocate 75% of my investable assets into a quantitative strategy, far away from my direct day to day management. I’ve found this to be a blessing, as it permits me to run roughshod with my active account.

That being said, on the news that President Trump won the trade war for the fifth consecutive time, I kicked out of SQQQ for a 2% loss and TZA for a 4% win. With the proceeds and some of the cash allocated on the sidelines — I bought the following stocks.

RNG, ZEN, HUBS, TEAM and IQ.

5 positons totalling ~30% of my assets — leaving me with roughly 50% cash. Although I’m buying into a melt up, I find it hard to refrain from buying dips in SAAS. I know there are those who believe this sector is rife with excess and due for a severe downturn. In the event markets fail, I’ll stop out. But for now, I’m betting on a continuation of this initial bounce — as the headline news improves on the China-US trade front.

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***ALERT: US TO RESTART TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA***

Every dip is, more or less, an excuse to run higher. Each fade is a head fake to kill or maim shorts.

Markets are off to the races on headlines that convey the US is set to reopen talks with China. It’s nothing, actually, but everything.

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Market Limps into the Open: PREPARE FOR ANOTHER FLUSH

This is precisely what you don’t want to see in a market following a big draw down — tepid and weak and very disgusting open. I’d much prefer to see Titanic trading action, followed by hair razing panic, than this.

On a separate note, it appears my storm door detached the trim that it’s attached to and now stands to collapse onto whoever opens the door next. I have a few choices here, one involves saying nothing and letting a household member unknowingly open said door, which will undoubtedly lead to its inexorable collapse, or fix it. I’m debating this topic, and many others, as we speak.

I was at Six Flags the other day and it bemused me to see how incredibly stupid most of the people sharing the earth with me were. You could see it in their eyes, completely devoid of intelligent thinking, unevolved folks in search of quick and cheap thrills. This sense of awareness isn’t a gift, but a curse, as I tend to view things thru a cynical lens by default — which I know is bad. Sometimes I consciously force myself to cast aside aspersions in favor of wanton gluttony or hedonism, in order to meld in with fellow homosapiens.

Time to prepare for markets. In case you’re wondering why the blog is so desolate during the day — it is because we’re all in Exodus chatting away — cavorting mind you, sashaying in a very manly way to the market’s indelible drums.

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PREPARE TO BE UNMERCIFULLY WHIPPED AT THE OPEN

***ATTENTION PLEBS: Access the Exodus algos now for free, at FreeStockAlgos.com ***

If you closed out the session very long, you’ll be very sorry tomorrow morning. God knows we deserve a stern talking to, maybe more. I’ve not positioned myself for bearish glory, and also bloodshed, and will be wishing for overnight calamity to hit markets on this evening.

I do not pretend for this to be anything but a revenge trade — for the pangs and the misery I’ve endured in my past 10 trades. Loss upon loss — prick after prick, I am aghast by the wounds brought on by my own hubris. The certitude I had during the ebullience of excess has now transmorphed into a heightened gloom, a rarified grimness that I’ve kept at bay for some time now.

I step into the close a hairy chested man, stronger and fitter than you — long TZA, SQQQ, M and some other shit — mostly cash (70%).

Good day.

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TECH REKT: What To Do Now Amidst All the Ruins?

Do I need to review the carnage? Fine, I’ll do it. And, I’ll tell you where the money is flowing and why you’d be an idiot to buy into that gambit.

Here are the leaders to the downside in tech. You’ll notice the best and hottest sectors are the one’s doing the worst.

Conventional wisdom might suggest to avoid tech; however, according to our mean reversion algorithms, now might be a good time to step him. Obviously,  a “this time is different” mindset often infects the psyche of traders during periods of duress. However, it rarely is any different from previous sell offs. Human behavior repeats itself and history rhymes.

The market breakdown for the day. Losses are contained in tech.

Leaders in tech, specifically FAANG, bearing the brunt of the sell off — now lower by 2.7%.

Most notably, the SAAS sector has been upended and completely wrecked, off by more than 5% today.

One idea worth mentioning, triple upside semis is now OS in Exodus. The track record for this signal is flawless, 10-0, over 10 trading days.

 

As of now, I am not quick to jump into the market, only because I just took a bunch of losses. I can still feel the knife wounds in my chest. I am long TZA and SQQQ too, which might be a dangerous trade heading into the close. It’s entirely possible that the near term lows are being put in now. Ideally, Exodus can spit out an oversold signal for the overall market and we can mean revert this bitch higher again.

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Fly Buy: $SQQQ

Market is fucking toast, with exception to retail and the shopping mall stocks of course. My Macy’s is doing wonderful.

I stepped in with a full heart and bought SQQQ today, not because I’m scared or because stocks look bad, but because I’m angry and want to profit from the demise of western finance.

To access our algos, feel free to use FreeStockAlgos for instant real time grading. We’ll add some new features soon.

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