Celebrate the Crisis!

The refiners are picking up some steam here: Valero Energy Corporation [[VLO]] , Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , Holly Corporation [[HOC]] . This is the season when refiners run, as we enter “the driving season.” As you know, I am a big believer in seasonality trends. For example, QUALCOMM, Inc. [[QCOM]] has been up in 17 of the last 18 years in March. As coincidence would have it, on 3/1, they reaffirmed guidance and announced a share buyback. Come on.

Come April, I will be playing Weatherford International Ltd. [[WFT]] , a stock that has gone up 19 of the last 20 years in April. I simply cannot ignore those percentages and chalk them up to “coincidence.” There is a specific reason why stocks go up during select months, while others struggle. Like everything else, there are stories behind the data.

I am looking for U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] to bust loose here. Much to my chagrin, I am down a good chunk in the name, thanks to stubbornness.  With gold stocks pressing higher— and [[JAG]] being their top holding under management— perhaps I can get my money back, AND MORE. Separately, I am respecting the scientific (joking) boundaries set by The PPT, with regards to this market being OVERBOUGHT. Therefore, I shall not be participating in any “stock adventures,” no matter how enticing it might be. Essentially, if I am off by a week or two, so be it. All I am saying is: raise cash.

But, if you already have cash and need some equity exposure, you wouldn’t be crazy for buying Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. [[SSTI]] here, with a hard cash offer of $3.00 on the table, especially since a bidding war may erupt at any moment. Wait for it. I also like Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] , Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Visa Inc. [[V]] etc.

UPDATE: I  sold 90% of ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] above $40.

Let’s see if my robots are better than yours.

Reading: OVERBOUGHT

A lot of you take this stock market racket way too serious. In your search to unveil the Holy Grail, you hem and haw your way into mediocrity. Here is some advice that will help you see things clearly: Stop learning. In a fast paced market, sometimes it makes sense to cease over-analyzing ever single tick, every single news release and just do.

Way back when, I’d scurry through every financial publication, book and website, in order to find an edge in the market. Then it dawned on me: most of you fuckers out there publishing books don’t know shit about investing. My current reading list is populated with classical literature, interesting industry stories, or something entirely unrelated to stocks. While it’s true, keeping up to date with news and research is vital to staying relevant. It’s also true, too much information can cloud your mind with all sorts of convoluted strategies, effectively knee-capping your trading performance.

The market is a living beast, always trying to bite your head off. Watch the beast very closely and strike when you feel the advantage is in your favor, not when some asshole tells you to. As much as I praise myself, being a stock market miracle, my style may not be suitable for your investment needs.

As for the market:

I ended up doing nothing today, despite saying I would sell. I have plenty of cash and fairly safe positions, as currently constituted. Should we gap up in the morning, I will be sure to raise another 5% cash.

I’m selling more here, as I embed myself in defensive minded positions. This is not a break-out, contrary to what all of the fortune tellers are foretelling today.

In short, get light now or go home heavy.

This is the type of tape that mushroom clouds any and all remnants of pessimism. All of the people short the market, as I type this, have sweaty palms and spare tires in their stomachs.

Granted, maybe if I wasn’t so cautious, I too could be throwing old fuckers into lit fireplaces, But we all make choices; some of them turn out to be good, others HORRIFIC. I harbor zero regrets.

Everything you know about economics and the markets are useless in an environment where everything is unprecedented. So ask yourself, pal, are you spinning your wheels or doing something productive?

Pardon my lack of bloggery these days. I am not trying to impersonate one or more of the lazy fuckers on iBC. I’ve been inundated with fucking bullshit; but that’s coming to an end—starting now.

Freebie: PPT just ticked above 3.00 again. Therefore, there is no way in hell I am allocating funds here.

Corinthian Colleges, Inc. [[COCO]] and other education stocks go up everyday, in the face of large short positions. As a matter of fact, most stocks with large short positions, sans Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] !, are melting higher, despite all of the “bad news.” Despite my reservations to risk my capital here, this is still a LONG ONLY market. I base my assertions on the irrefutable facts that this market, like it or not, is being bid up by the good folks over at the U.S. government. It is just silly to think that you can out-manoeuvre them. Trying to out-chess the grand chess players is equal to Lehman Brothers going out of business because their fucking chart sucked.

See what I am saying here?

Nevertheless, 40%+ of my assets are still long equities and they are doing great today. Some of my top performers are Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] and Visa Inc. [[V]] . It’s also worth noting, the dollar is rallying and big money is still being fork lifted into [[TLT]] . However, I will not bore you lemon suckers with such jargon.

Go ahead, get drunk and buy stocks. For now, I will sit here burning holes in my monitor, using only my eyes, sober and totally in control.

Disclosure: I am up 10% year to date.

My IT guy gets really nervous when I mention illegal stuff. I suppose it’s his “mid-west raisin'” that has him all legal eagle and shit. On the other hand, “The Fly” used to play “hop over the crack vile” when he was young, back in that shit hole called Brooklyn. This country is one great amazing dump.

The markets are ping-ponging higher, despite bad news out of China (look it up, lazy fucker) and America losing the gold medal in hockey. Additionally, the dollar is up and the Greeks are fornicating, instead of paying off their debt. Life is grand and confusing, especially for investors, which is why I’ve been pigeon holed, like a pussy, in [[TLT]] .

My latest position, Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. [[SSTI]] , offers a nice risk/reward ratio, with a hard cash offer of $3 on the table and a bidding war brewing. Both Cerebus and Microchip Technology Inc. [[MCHP]] have made offers for the company. However, both offers insult the intelligence of investors, mainly because THEY UNDERVALUE THE COMPANY, greatly. In my estimation, the stock is worth at least $4. So, I am buying with vigor. My cost basis is around $3.18, so my downside is .18. I like those odds, .18 down and .82 up.

In other news, Prudential is buying American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] Hong Kong insurance unit for a staggering $35 bill. First of all, they are paying way too much for the unit. Second of all, the deal smells very fishy, especially since the U.S. government owns American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] . The true value of AIG is actually $00.00. The shareholder equity is with the preferred shareholders. The common stock holders have ZERO equity, which is comedic onto itself. It’s one giant government sinkhole, whereby money is doled out to other institutions, in order to keep the charade going. By keeping one little giant company on life support, the government saved 100’s of other banks—very clever indeud.

With my money, I’d rather participate in dice games, than buy stocks based upon the cocaine intake of my local trader. No thank you. Like my grandmother used to say “not for me.”

Full disclosure: “The Fly” has been drinking coffee again, at a rate that cannot be described by a mere blog post. Courtesy of my Keurig single server coffee maker aka “The Best Invention since God” (thank you Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] !), I’ve been “beaned up” 15 hours per day, for more than a week now.

Interestingly enough, since I’ve been geeked out on caffeine, I’ve had zero desire for alcoholic beverages, not even a beer.

Looking into the future, courtesy of my crystal ball and space aged portal devices, I expect [[TLT]] to trade up, as America forces treasuries down the throats of those who peg to the U.S. dollar (Fuck China!). I know you think China will “man-up” and cease financing our debt one day. ROFL!!! That’s just silly talk, especially since doing that would mean mutual destruction.

Betting on China taking its “wet tit” away is equal to those nuclear bomb bunker motherfuckers, back in the 50’s, promising “imminent nuclear war.”

Just like the old Soviet Union, China does not have the balls to start a financial apocalypse.

As a result, I’ve been buying [[TLT]] down at these levels, while guzzling preposterous sized jars filled with liquid bean.

Judging by his attire (no blue blazer), this is not a serious topic. Nonetheless, nothing kicks off the weekend like a little DENNINGER vid.

In other news, fellow PPT gentleman and industry pro, Robert, has a great post up about fundamental analysis. I know most of you enjoy charts, for the same reason why high school kids prefer cliff notes over reading whole books. Despite all of that, take a moment or two to hear the man out.

We all love a good manipulated to the upside market, unless of course we are short and swimming in our own feces. While banking coin in the market, it’s important to remember there are non-descript men walking around throwing hand grenades at people. Their intent is to derail the markets and send your 401k plan to $00.00. Most of the time, the fabulous trading robots from Goldman (of course!) defeat these men via shooting them with space aged laser beams. However, every once in awhile, the men in burlap prevail, sending you and your stupid friends to the unemployment line.

Keep your eye on [[TLT]] , for it is telling you something, ever so quietly. While the market goes higher on less than inspiring volume, big money is being fork lifted into treasuries. This is a very interesting paradigm, especially since there are no real signs of distress, unless you consider Greece important.

For the most part, corporate earnings have been stellar and there are no real red flags to discuss, with the small exception of INSANE amounts of expenses needing to be financed this year.

Nevertheless, I remain stoic in my approach to disengage the market, via large amounts of cash and treasury holdings. I have not shorted anything, or bought [[VXX]] , because I am afraid of the robots. Betting against this market is like starting a gay rights movement in Iran—always a bad idea.

In short, my year to date gains are still around 9%. The year is young and there will be easier markets to trade, than the one we are faced with now.

UPDATE: I bought 75,000 Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. [[SSTI]] , under $3.20.