We all love a good manipulated to the upside market, unless of course we are short and swimming in our own feces. While banking coin in the market, it’s important to remember there are non-descript men walking around throwing hand grenades at people. Their intent is to derail the markets and send your 401k plan to $00.00. Most of the time, the fabulous trading robots from Goldman (of course!) defeat these men via shooting them with space aged laser beams. However, every once in awhile, the men in burlap prevail, sending you and your stupid friends to the unemployment line.
Keep your eye on [[TLT]] , for it is telling you something, ever so quietly. While the market goes higher on less than inspiring volume, big money is being fork lifted into treasuries. This is a very interesting paradigm, especially since there are no real signs of distress, unless you consider Greece important.
For the most part, corporate earnings have been stellar and there are no real red flags to discuss, with the small exception of INSANE amounts of expenses needing to be financed this year.
Nevertheless, I remain stoic in my approach to disengage the market, via large amounts of cash and treasury holdings. I have not shorted anything, or bought [[VXX]] , because I am afraid of the robots. Betting against this market is like starting a gay rights movement in Iran—always a bad idea.
In short, my year to date gains are still around 9%. The year is young and there will be easier markets to trade, than the one we are faced with now.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlk9Sj4Ns2k 616 500]UPDATE: I bought 75,000 Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. [[SSTI]] , under $3.20.
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How the hell can Oil stay up with no demand. This is madness
Asset allocation.
Or the there is a fear of disruption that’s driving both TLT and oil.
Iran/Israel ?
Explains the “flight to quality” (I use that term loosely) if it’s geopolitical anyway ….
You need a long term chart of oil and I don’t mean 3 years
I would be interested in your latest take on the Euro relative to the US Dollar. Not because I hold a small short position, but because if the Eurozone melts like a lead fish weight in a barbeque pit, I suspect it will ripple in Treasuries, VIX and the like.
you allready know the answer….but your mind seeks conformation of the untruths you are lead to beleave…check in previous fly posts and seek the “quatrains of archadamus”
Thanks for nudging me to brush up on my Spartan history and refresh my knowledge of the helot revolts that were the popular past-time of peasants during that time.
My beleafs are allready conformed, thank you.
The story is not over on the Greek debt. It is my bet that we will start to hear of the problems spreading throughout Europe. Greece may not be the only country facing a debt rating cut. The lack of selling pressure as the Euro approached the recent bottom at 1.3443 on Thursday triggered a short-covering rally late turned the Euro higher. Bearish traders may have been hesitant to put on new positions this close to the recent bottom out of fear of a possible bond issue next week. Bearish traders may be waiting to see how much buying interest is in this bond issue before initiating their next wave of short-selling.
One of the currency plays to watch the weaker the Euro becomes, the greater the chance that the Swiss National Bank will intervene to protect its currency. Look for the USD CHF to take out its most recent top at 1.0897 if the Euro breaks its bottom at 1.3443.
the euro will meet its fate ….a return to their own currency will happen…and then..you mortals will return to pre euro conditions…how pre euro you may ask ????the 12th dimension wont allow me to divulge
If I look close into any country’s finance, I start to wig out and mistake it for the stock market.
The market is the market and there has been lots of money to be made. Many countries this year were sweating bullets over selling bonds with no future plan, not just Greece. If I look at it my balls hurt. But when I look at companies without government policy or contracts holding them up, things look ok and my balls stop hurting.
righto -who the hell cares about the macro? waste of time…its’ always effed up on some level – burklap men, shorts on fire…it’s all stupid noise…old hags still need wrinkle cream, shriveled men still need viagra even if Greece invades us.
A setback is a setup for a comeback.
A come on is a put on for a hard on.
“…a gay rights movement in Iran” Yeah, I got one going in Cleveland, and thought its momentum would carry over in my Iran efforts…but no go.
In light of the horrid NY weather — I think it’s about time you break out the Ol’ Blue Mets radio?
So saith the wise man as he stand atop his box outside of wall street block. “Don’t go in there…you will loose your life savings, your family will be destined for the poor house. Use your own brain figure the world out for yourself, help those you can…flee this evil place.” he was later sitting outside of MacDonalds with the this sign.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/edfladung/46405533/
When the rich power fuckers own the entire economic system and media worldwide, they’ll make this fucking market tap dance upward at their whim. Then they’ll pull the legs out from under your currency, fuck 30 years of your corporate-repressive bullshit savings, and then brainwash you and everyone you ever met that you fucking deserve it and should feel guilty enough to give up everything you ever knew so that you can be a politically correct green monkey fuck. Such is the way of the hairless ape.
The man has spokeneth.
What did I learn in the market and on CNBC today?
a. Asians like to gamble…Chinese…Japanese…..Korean….Thai…..Vietnamese
b. I’m getting my scrote punched in on GOOG (just tell me it will be higher in 2015)
c. Fly has mad game!
NOTE: That is a great clip you posted…thanks
“Betting against this market is like starting a gay rights movement in Iran—always a bad idea”
Hilarious!
What’s the scene from Ezekiel have to do with this post?
Since China does not release reliable, timely statistics on employment, wages are considered the best barometer of labor shortages. And temp agencies here in Guangzhou raised their rate for factory workers this week to $1.17 an hour, from 95 cents an hour before the new year holiday. -nytimes.com
$1.17….an hour? WTF? That’s messed up how the hell do you live on that much an hour?
Oh just cuz the crap in the market is happening doesn’t mean people aren’t spending money at their local comic stores.
Well I guess $1.17 is a better way to gauge it, since a: they tie their currency directly to the dollar, and b: a raise of an extra bowl of rice a day is really sumwing.
Mr. Fly,
Let me get this straight.
You are a near-term bull on the dollar, but ultimately you are long-term bearish on the dollar, correct?
I can understand that. This market is uninspiring and the move up in the dollar is merely temporary in my opinion. The dollar index has no business sniffing anything close to 85. It would be at 65 by now if Europe wasn’t so gay.
I rather have equities instead of your stupid fiat currency for fiat currency will always reach 0 on a long enough time line.
What will it take for you to reverse course and start making some long bets on this market?
For my money, I will continue to go pile into BRK.B. It’s been resilient to market ugliness. Stocks that go to $80 go to $100. Right?
Thanks.
Smarmy fucker on Fast Money said BRK.B is basically like owning an index fund at this point.
Berkie should outperform SP500 going forward. It pays no divvy and allows Warren to compound for the shareholder. Warren has the insurance float to use for free – ihe float is going to hit $70 billion within a few years. The net profit of Berkie will hit over $30 mill/ hour for 24/7 within a few years…..that is over $200 million / week or $1 billion/ month…………….it is a money machine. Of course the stock is not going to double any time soon.
…………………………………………$30 millio0n/day, not hour.
Oh, Slovakia…my heart breaks at how close we came. Can’t fucking believe that Demitra missed at the end…
yep the goal was open like sleeve of wizard
“Betting against this market is like starting a gay rights movement in Iran—always a bad idea.”
Ova heah in Thailand, all I ever hear about male Iranian visitors is how they got robbed after taking a couple of cheap ladyboys off the street back to their hotels, drugged and then robbed of all their possessions. Others that make the news are usually caught with small boys, doing god only knows what.
There are plenty of faggots in Iran, a gay rights movement in Iran might not be such a bad idea.
*No offence to faggots intended of course
I nearly got into a bit of an “altercation” with some Iranians a few years ago at a roadside bar in Bangkok. They heard me and my friend talking and pretty obvious I was American. They didn’t like that so started talking all sorts of political / jihadist bullshit. Ranting and raving about how we depend on their oil, etc.
I calmly informed them that if we wanted their oil, we wouldn’t ask for it we would just take it. Not a damn thing they could do to stop us either. Nothing really came out of it, but if suckas start frontin’ I will step to ’em.
Why didn’t they put charlie sheen back into the new wallstreet movie.
Get to high ground hawaii
On a separate note, we just got a sunami warning.
Supposedly, we are less than 5 hours from a continuous 12 ft. wave.
Wife is already packing shit as we are less than a five minute walk from the ocean and in a sunami zone.
Now as I sit here typing this, I’m trying to guess how many feet we are above sea level. I think we’re pretty high ( I’m guessing over 12 feet for sure).
Would really like to sit and watch, but that could be a bad a bet “as starting a gay rights movement in Iran”
Just packed everything in the car, except the animals. They’ll get in when we do. Earth mother type neighbors just left for Volcano on the mountain.
We’ll hang a little longer and bring the flat screen TV upstairs before we leave. Guy Hagi (local TV personality)just to everyone that sunamis are not surfable(sic).
Careful there 5-O. The momentum of billions of tons of water move a long way in past the predicted level.
Are higher rates just around the corner, hence more default and credit problems, Bernakes comments below from Weds, surprised nobody mentioned this on here.
Recent events in Europe, where Greece and other nations with large, unsustainable deficits like the United States are having increasing trouble selling their debt to investors, show that the U.S. is vulnerable to a sudden reversal of fortunes that would force taxpayers to pay higher interest rates on the debt, Mr. Bernanke said.
“It’s not something that is 10 years away. It affects the markets currently,” he told the House Financial Services Committee. “It is possible that bond markets will become worried about the sustainability [of yearly deficits over $1 trillion], and we may find ourselves facing higher interest rates even today.”
Bob Marley RULES!