Judging by his attire (no blue blazer), this is not a serious topic. Nonetheless, nothing kicks off the weekend like a little DENNINGER vid.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX9ZBXbiN18&feature=sub 616 500]In other news, fellow PPT gentleman and industry pro, Robert, has a great post up about fundamental analysis. I know most of you enjoy charts, for the same reason why high school kids prefer cliff notes over reading whole books. Despite all of that, take a moment or two to hear the man out.
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Great food there!
You know there are a lot of problems in our world. We here more and more about devastation, wheather wars, floods, and earthquakes. The bible is clear upon the lords return, these things would happen. I’m not sure when he will return, but it does make you think about things.
Look who is besmirching fundamental investing, mr gold bug himself. How ironic.
What is pbi? Where are you?
Palm Beach …but I thought folk from KY were supposed to go the the redneck riviera ..the panhandle.
You really gotta start paying closer attention, Purdy.
The Panhandle’s probably still snowbound, btw.
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I don’t know what you are claiming here.
If anything, gold is a secular trend trade, that’s all. You’ll never see me talking about the fundamentals of various companies, save perhaps to remark upon particularly useless management teams, like at HL and CDE.
It’s largely useless, as the amount of information I might gather is nothing compared to the inside stuff that’s passed around like candy in that sector. I buy gold and silver because it’s trending, and is in a secular bull. “Cliff’s Notes” trading at it’s best.
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I’m a little south of Delray in Highland Beach.
Craziest thing… I stopped in the Publix to get some beer and bananas and the kid asked me about the (local) beer I was purchasing, and I said I didn’t know anything about it, as I was just visiting. Kid asked me where I was from, I said Lou, but Lawn Guyland originally. Old dude bagging behind him says “Oh yeah? I’m from Lawn Guyland” and mentions my hometown. I said, “Wow, that’s my hometown.” He says “Yeah? I was 30 years in the Post Office there.” I mention that maybe he knows my mom and mention her name, he says “No, but I knew (Jake Senior)…” and I mentioned “oh yeah, that’s my Dad.” I say he passed a couple of years back.
And outta nowhere the old guy gets all emotional and says “Oh my… SUCH a nice man, such a nice man…” He had me all welling up, standing there with my beer and bananas, speechless.
It was so strange…(I’m thinking — “what are the odds?”) … here I am visiting his old place and it’s like he’s reached out to me my first night here.
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small world
I’m thinking the odds of that happening were about 86.2% provided it wasn’t that large of a town and you spoke to at least three old men who lived in your home town for a long time.
Chances of speaking to an old man who lived there if you were far from your hometown, less than 1% chance.
LOL. I don’t even understand what the hell you just said. Keep in mind… the towns are 2000 miles apart.
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I said the odds were far less than 1%.
Headed down that way myself in a week or so to the Jensen Beach area about 40 miles north of you … hope the weather improves. Just read that it’s currently 50 degrees around South Beach, Miami … that’s just not right!
@Teahouse- my oldest cousin lives in Jensen Beach. From the Guyland originally, but she’s been down there since college.
It’s about 67 on the beach right now, bright sun. Water is not even that cold.
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Gettin’ better ….. hope to see 82ish in a week or so …. fingers crossed.
Jake:
I used to stay a little further south of Delray at this dude’s house on the beach. Nice spot.
Good story..JG
Fly can you believe the hits KD gets on those vids?
Lottsa burlap out there.
Jake is originally from ny. Then he became a self hater and moved south.
Please. Would that “hating myself” were my biggest problem. Not even the clods who gnaw at my golden ankles on this site would agree with you on that one.
I married a Southerner, and have had a fascination with Southern literature since I was a young teen. I also dislike the cold and rude people. It was all but invevitable.
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I’m just kidding. Quit getting all confederate and shit on me.
Thought you were following his lead to the South that is … unless you were referring to Joisey.
Fly, Just don’t mention the civil war. Jake gets all emotional about that.
lol
Kentucky is not the south. If your shit is north of I-10, you are not in the real south. Diehards set the line of demarcation as the Itercoastal Waterway. I am a bit more lenient.
If you are from Noo Yawk, anything south of of Trenton is Johnny Reb territory.
Including Philly.
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does that make thermal, ca in the south? heaven knows thermalians think so.
Always remember, ta follows fundies, not the other way around.
Well, yes. But TA is the single best (and most immediate) reflection of every bit of “fundamental intelligence” — analytical or not — that’s out there. That’s why it’s a superior reflection on market dynamics.
It’s hubris to think you could garner enough information on a market or a company to predict it’s action without the feedback of millions of other market actors.
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It’s hubris to think you can predict an FDA result or EPS beat using a fucking chart.
You’re right, you cannot. That’s why you can’t hang your hat on one name, either. Find trending sectors, ride, get off.
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So when you refer to “trading cycles,” do you really think they are not based on fundamentals?LOL
Come on, it’s like a fucking bad joke already, with the fucking cycles, charts and all that jazzy nonsense.
Stocks trade on fundies, that’s all. Everything else is just coincidence.
Clearly, the egg comes before the chicken. But the business cycle ala the Fed takes them away from you.
Listen to Yamada’s discussion of the bond market cycle (not unlike gold) and the use of TA and predetermined yield markers as a signal when to move from long to intermediate to short and the historical cycles therein (whether based on fundamentals, geopolitical or monetary/fiscal policy).
The outside forces take years to build up and then unwind to start the cycle over again. Surely from a macro perspective the stock market goes through the same type of cycles though maybe somewhat counter cyclical to bonds and/or gold. Interestingly she indicates that while many think the market it tied to the $ historically that has proven to be false all but four times.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFQDea05yvlE
Maybe you Scott and CA should get a room. ROFL.
Just kidding.
Or am I?
TIM is a classic example of someone who uses technical with NO fundamentals.
He decides to short Royal Bank because it looks like it might break a support level(the fact he never actually waits for patterns to complete before taking a position is another story). He’s done this over and over BTW – that’s another story LOL
Anyways RY is the strongest Canadian bank in an oligopoly. Highly regulated and profitable. He never bothered to research this and lost money over and over.
TIM doesn’t really trade. He is a computer generated program, a virus of sorts, made to annoy people.
lol. You’re very funny at times Fly.
Sometimes “le Fly” other times “Dr. Fly”. Are you a French doctor per chance?
I haven’t “visited” Tim the virus site for ages and feel so much less aggressive. I feel like I have no need to punch someone’s light out at random in the street any longer as a result of that idiot’s market commentary.
People do yourselves a favor and don’t go there as it’s like visiting Dante’s 9th circle of hell.
Fly,
Any plans tonight? Let’s make a reservation at Per Se! 8pm? They have a great Veal Chop.
What if – the fed keeps printing dollars. The equity markets go down. And the world starts buying treasuries because equity markets are not safe anymore. As a result, dollar value does not go down inspite of inflationary availability of dollar.
What if the US just keeps plodding along and regains economic strength as a result of freedom? What if manufacturing jobs start to increase, infrastructure jobs start to increase, new power plants, and higher technology than ever before? What if each state starts to experience economic recovery due to good old fashioned tenacity?
Could happen.
Fly — as I’ve already noted within Roberts comment section — would love to see an expansion of this very type of information in either the PPT or your public site. Perhaps even consider a tabbed blogger, or small group of fundamental experts, that could build upon this fantastic example of actionable fundamentals.
I’ll be signing up soon for the PPT — as I am increasingly impressed with its vision and scope. I cannot imagine that adding a blogger who does just this type of analysis would be just another jewel in the PPT crown.
Will be great to have you join us working man. It’s a great community and we actually have fun while banking mucho coin. I think you’ll be really glad you joined. Every week fly adds new tweeks and ideas to improve the strength of the PPT tools and also our trading. And the traders on PPT just keep getting better and better as we all help each other and share ideas. Lindsay
The sunami is my favorite Sushi dish. The lava from the volcano has blocked the tidal wave. That’s the way it is here in paradise.
LOL
Karl, with a K, is so great. I bet he wears crocodile boots to bed in that lawless swamp where he lives. OK, I’m off to bite some nipples.
on Kauai waiting….
Couple of things…
First, excuse the crankiness, as I just landed at PBI for the first of five quick days of sun and surf far from the cold north, and its 50 degrees and misting here. A big “you blow” to Al Gore and the weather commies for pissing off God.
Second, I understand the whole “bedazzling” marketing reasons for money managers pushing the importance of fundamental analysis at squibs– what better way to separate a whale from his money than smoking on about “the Warren Buffet Way” right?
But the real reason good money managers make good returns is that they are watching the pulse of the market day in and day out, and like docteurs (sic), they have become familiar enough with the physiogonomy of the market that they can diagnose moves as they occur and get in FRONT of the Majority of suckers out there.
Like the old saw says– Its got nothing to with being faster than the bear chasing you; you really only have to be faster than the poor suckers running behind you.
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I sometimes wonder if there were no democrats or liberals in this world, then what would you find to get pissed at?
I sometimes wonder why people would reflexively defend Al Gore, a dufus and a gigantic carbon soaking hog-hypocrite if there ever was one.
Do you enjoy being made a fool of?
Or maybe you like thieves? I can kind of understand that… I mean, there’s a certain roguish charm to the outlaw of literature, the rogue, the blackamoor, the pirate….
What I can’t really stomach, however, is thieves who take on a mien of self-righteousness to pull off their larceny. If you’re out to steal, at least have the common decency not to insult my intelligence.
I guess if I were forced to answer your question, I’d move off the thieves– however reluctantly– and on to the useful idiots.
Volunteering? 😉
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Nothing but love for you brother, but if you want some well intentioned advice — please read Bastiat’s “The Law” before you get too old. Someone brought it up on my blog the other day, and while it’s been a while since I’ve read it myself, I can’t think of any better eye-opener for the reasonably intelligent young man/woman of today.
They could subtitle it “Al Gore, Explained.”
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I would not argue. I think the “Warren Buffet Way” is too extreme. But I also remember The Fly talking once about an adjustment in The PPT with regard to PEG and forward EPS estimates. You cannot completely ignore fundamentals if you believe the hybrid score calls tops and bottoms.
I think the big issue is that “fundamental analysis” evokes images of old men in coke bottle glasses divining mysterious nuggets of info out of balance sheets so they can eke out 10% a year. This is no longer the case, or at least it’s not how we should consider fundamental analysis for our purposes.
Totally agree with Jake here
Beside the obvious that Al Gore being a douche, practically every new investor gets sucked into the Warren Buffet Way and finds out the hard way. Like a ponzi scheme, as long as there’s new suckers, the dollars keep rolling in.
Fundamental or Technical, good tape reading is the most valuable skill you can gain.
I find the terms douche or douche bag to be misused in such a way as to imply negative connotations.
Feminine hygiene is important to us all. Let’s try to cherish it and stop associating it with dirty things like Al Gore.
AH, PBI – staying at the Breakers are you? I love that place….haven’t been there in years though…I surely hope they didn’t trump or schrager it. Kiss the polo ponies for me.
No, not staying at The Breakers, though you venture into “small world” territory, as it is now owned and managed by a Kentucky gentlemen (and former client of mine) who is a descendent of the original keenan-Flagler families that first colonized Palm Beach in the early 20th century. He is also an original investor in Berkshire Hathaway (again, ironically) and as opposite of Trump as anyone on the planet
I highly recommend that joint for families, btw, as they have made it very family friendly over the last decade (hint-hint,M. Le Fly )
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I love these people who are so enraged by the hypocrisy of one party that they are completely oblivious to the hypocrisy of the other.
I particularly enjoy the people who suddenly became aware of the deficit on January 20, 2009. They apparently were blissfully unaware of the prescription drug plan or TARP or Iraq war until then.
You are a mark, a rube, as are your liberal counterparts. But where would the long con that is American politics be without you?
A mark? The new world order fiber network twists through my entire being. What you call the long con is about to become the long arm.
Give it a rest losertarian. If you think the socialist Dems who are trying to take over even more of the American economy than they already have, are the same as conservative Republicans, then you’ve been drinking the Alex Jones Idiot Juice and have officially taken on the mantle of “useful idiot.”
Nancy Pelosi thanks you. And yes, I know Dubya was almost as bad as his Dad and the GOP Congress was porky (that’s why they’re gone), but I also don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good.
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The iraq war was free and so is freedom.
All parties suck. We need a nice dictator, like mr bilderberg.
I had coffee with Mr. Bilderberg once. It was tainted though. I woke up later and noticed a sudden sense of urgency whenever one of his cronies spoke certain phrases.
Was there a scar over your right kidney?
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Man, I cannot believe Lou beat Cuse at Cuse, they way these guys are taking Nova apart here.
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Denninger seems to have overlooked the obvious, which is that Bernanke is lying.
We will monetize the debt. There is no other choice. Default or debase: those are the only options.
Fundamental analysis is for people with access, money and power. People who get the direct line to the CEO and get the news BEFORE its public. Who get private sessions to discuss “market trends” and “business drivers”, and the information they need to “round out their models.”
TA is for everyone else. Since without the “access” described above, your average investor can never be competitive investing based solely on fundamentals. In fact, your average investor only knows what the fundamentals ‘were’, while institutional investors know what the fundamentals ‘are’. TA is the best shot we have at ‘seeing’ what is really going on at the current moment, rather than what happened officially last quarter.
I’ve seen this up close and personal now in several public companies. Individual investors have ZERO shot of competing based on their understanding of fundamentals. There are essentially no insider trading laws, or at least not in practice. Sure, big “events” may not be shared (mergers, buyouts, etc) broadly, but institutional investors know AT ALL TIMES exactly how businesses are performing, and they know this through a combination of access to C-level employees who share this information in a barely disguised manner AND various forms of corporate espionage (which is another advantage most average people don’t have the time to undertake).
Access is not the problem. The size of the balance sheets associated with the folks theoretically abusing access prevents them from quickly capitalizing on such info, especially in today’s lower volume environment. Those dumb enough to move a lot of product quickly will easily be noticed by machines and traders – fodder for many of the folks on this site. These meatheads exposing trendlines are likely the same ones who paid for access via Gerson Lehrman or Coleman Research or whoever. The contacts have no idea what is important to a stock, and investors asking the questions would not know a good bit of info if it slapped them across the face because they have never worked a day in their life off Wall St.
If there is any question about whether mgmt knows the first thing about what is important to a stock, check out what happened to the CHK CEO last year.
Your bigger beef should be with dark pools where product can be moved without anyone noticing. Proper regulation or elimination of dark pools will make access concerns null and void.
In reality, near equal access is available to anyone. There is no reason you cannot give a company’s Investor Relations a call and ask questions. You will never get the info acquired by folks with the super-secret Yale handshake, but you will be surprised by the amount of info that is shoveled to your end of the phone line. Likely, there is more info than you know what to do with. For the lazy man (like me), sell-side notes bridge the gap.
In all cases, capitalizing on info provided by access requires a model. An investor must be willing to drive a model to adequately criticize the level of access provided to the market’s big balance sheets. It is one of my bigger beefs with ZH.
“AP – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged her colleagues to back a major overhaul of U.S. health care even if it threatens their political careers, a call to arms that underscores the issue’s massive role in this election year”
Anyone that needs an appendix removed report to the armory next Thursday
We need HOSPITAL WARDS and mass production methods for appendectomies,
joint replacement, colonoscopy, heart catheterization, tooth filling, etc; and we need
FREE walk-in local clinics staffed by SALARIED interns, nurses, and nurse-practitioners
for common ailments, to get the fuckin’ costs of USA health care down.
The ONE MRI unit per 500,000 people should be busy 24-7.
Our for-profit health care system must be brought to its knees. Too many people
sucking at the tit of America’s for-profit health care.
Fly, with your comment on Fundies and the rest is just coincidence. How does PPT work? I presumed it was a trend/Technical algo.
I have not subscribed yet though have been reading the site with more interest as I read.
Thanks
Gbest- even though this was written back in Nov 2008, I really like it as a good description of the PPT.
Hope this is helpful.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/11/09/the-ppt-who-what-and-when/
Isn’t this what he has being saying everyday?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Say%27s_Law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Baptiste_Say
He is well known for Say’s Law (or Say’s Law of Markets), often summarised as
* “Aggregate supply creates its own aggregate demand”,
* “Supply creates its own demand”,
* “Supply constitutes its own demand”,
* “If you build it, they will come”,
* “Inherent in supply is the wherewithal for its own consumption”. (Direct translation from french Traité d’économie politique.)
It is important to note, however, that these are all Keynesian misinterpretations. Say’s Law does not claim that supply automatically bring demand, but that the foundation for effective demand is constituted in a former source of supply. That it is always supply that we consume and that you cannot consume what does not exist.
Say’s law says “the supply (sale) of X creates the demand (purchase) of Y”. This law can be shown by business-cycle statistics. When downturns start, production is always first to decline, ahead of demand. When the economy recovers, production recovers ahead of demand
He was also among the first to argue that money was neutral in its effect on the economy. Money is not desired for its own sake, but for what it can purchase. An increase in the amount of money in circulation would increase the price of other goods in terms of money (causing inflation), but would not change the relative prices of goods or the quantity produced. This idea was later developed by economists into the Quantity theory of money.
Say argued against claims that business was suffering because people did not have enough money and more money should be printed. Say argued that the power to purchase could be increased only by more production.
James Mill used Say’s Law against those who sought to give the economy a boost via unproductive consumption. Consumption destroys wealth, in contrast to production which is the source of economic growth. The demand for the product determines the price of the product.
developing…
How’s this guy going to make me money again.