LE FLY IS AT RECOURD HIGHS ###

Let’s review, shall we?

I’m bald. My wife probably doesn’t like me very much and I’m a medicocre tennis player. But I can do this. New record highs, +52% YTD.

The Russian Ruble is up 4% vs dollar, now $57.

The 2-10 spreads are narrowing, with the 2yr up 14bps, suggestive of recession looming.

Cryptos crash with stocks.

Commodities are lower across the board with stocks.

I am 100% cash, closing out large positions in FAZ, SOXS, and UVIX. I sell most opens to reduce my holding time and mitigate risk. Since this method has been working almost without flaw, I have no rush to change it.

I’m not sure what happens from now till 2pm. But I’m pretty sure what happens afterwards. Having said that, Stocklabs is likely to flag oversold and I am likely forced to get long, even though I don’t want to. Rules are rules.

CATACLYSM.

The worse case scenario is playing out now with inflation coming in at an annual rate of 8.6%, ahead of the expected 8.3%. We are now on a quick path for disaster. Inflation is running as it did in the 1970s, which saw the markets walked lower for two grueling years before recovering.

Here is the breakdown.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1535238666100015109?s=21&t=fvlIyNkAEGKPM12IxpJasA

What to expect.

Higher rates.

With higher rates cheap credit is gone and with it stocks that depend on cheap money to support their burn. I don’t see how stocks could rally today. Bools will always think this is a capitulation event. But the truth is more severe: this is merely the opening salvo into a series of events that will bring about the destruction of America.

As for me, I’m hedged and up sharply in the PM.

Listen to me —

I tried to lose money today and failed. I had been down almost 2% at the height of bullish stupidity but instead closed FLAT as markets and the people in it CRESCENDO’d sloppily into vats of grease and lit aflame.

PAX AMERICANA HAS ENDED. THE MARKET WILL BE SHATTERED CROWN TO ROOT. BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES ARE FOREIGN AGENTS ILLEGALLY OCCUPYING AMERICAN CLAY.

The pain has just started.

Stocks are careening lower and there is nothing Gap can do about it. The permanent bulls are on the run, after having bought this morning like morons.

It’s over.

How many times do I need to tell you this?

The economy is in shambles and getting worse by the minute. Russia is winning the war and NATO humiliation is just around the bend. The global impact of such a loss of prestige will be enormous.

In short, and again, it’s over.

I’m here in my new house, all empty and alone, waiting for fucking contractoors. I got blasted this morning and am down 180bps now because my semis hedge is not hedging. My energy longs had collapsed. And my non energy longs were shit at the open. Basically I got hooked.

These things happen.

I am not only short via inverse ETFs, but 80% cash. Admittedly, this is a dumb position but I’m not at the desk and don’t have an edge on the market and I hate permanent bools.

That being said, they’re on the move now and think they’ll make it. All news is good now and the war lost in Ukraine no longer matters and all of Europe without energy is a non issue.

Get used to it. The Fed wants people out of work in order to create demand destruction so inflation will reduce. Jobless claims came in hot at 229k, 5 mo highs, and we’re not done going higher on third numbers.

During all previous economic declines, it was commonplace to see 1m per mo for a string of months until the Fed bailed us out.

Do not expect the Fed to rescue you anytime soon. No on is here to help you.

Futures has been up 80 and now down 55. We can still rally today, since dumber things have happened. But for now, things look grim.

Because I left work early today my investments soured and I barely made 19bps. This is on par with cataclysm and I’m quite upset by it.

Having said that, my new job is to spend ruinous amounts of money on rugs, and wooden floors, and trim work, and CUSTOM LIBRARIES.

I must go now, dinner at the club followed up by planning to spend more.

OK, I had a better look at the market and this is what I think.

Oil is ripping higher because of supply issues, but that the same time ECONOMIC SENSITIVE commodity plays like CLF, X, shippers are lower, suggestive of inflation yet economic collapse aka STAGFLATION. Prices will drop under these conditions, but oil and other SUPPLY CONSTRAINED commodities will rise.

We have a scenario where the market is traders is misconstruing today’s strength for economic vibrancy. All of your tech plays will get tossed into the fires. We have a unique move in Chinese stocks, likely due to a short squeeze on the reopening trade. Shares of BABA, JD and others are vertical. However, larger capped tech is WEAK and getting weaker.

Biotech is strong because it’s too oversold, which makes for today a very strange tape.

I am long a series of smaller capped risk plays, come in commodities, another in biotech, another in Chicoms, and one more in SHIT retail — hedged via UVIX.

If we collapse lower, the VIX is going to spike.

At the moment, I am 52% cash, with a bias to short more.

I just got back from closing on a home. It was a terrible process wrought with incompetent people. But it’s over now and I can get on with my life.

I sold all in the morning for a net gain of 1.16%. Although I loathe the idea of PERMANENT BULLS being right and recovering some of their lost coin in the face of horrible news, I also need to accept this reality and trade it well.

I’m doing so, but not making 5-6% per session like some degenerate losers I know. One doesn’t make 5% in a session without taking absurd risks. The Fly is never one to be made to look ridiculous.

Into the afternoon, I’ll start trading again, a little of this and a little of that. It’s funny how just a few hours away can feel like an eternity, disconnected from what is working. I could only imagine how normies feel looking at the market without context or a feel.

The good news for you, I am an exceedingly talented manager of money and can be retained for a very small fee via Stocklabs, you cheap sons a bitches.

SIRS —

It will be over before the week is out. The news will be terrible and the next time it’ll stick. It seems what the market truly fears has nothing to do with recession. What the market is scared of is continued inflation. That being said, the market shall receive such news of inflation, indefinitely, and without pause.

This is the predictive algorithms of Stocklabs, backtest period is 3 months. Every time we got lofty and felt good about ourselves, Mother Market open handed five fingered slapped the shit out of investoors.