THE FED IS CRASHING THE ECONOMY

The only problem with raising rates at a break-neck pace in order to defeat inflation is it also destroys the economy. You can see this as clear as day if you look at the money supply — down the most in 60 years.

Many analysts are suggesting earnings will come down by 20%; but that is being optimistic. I have done the research and the earnings decline for tech/growth is more like -40% from peak. Ergo, all of your PE and PS ratios are MEANINGLESS stats if you are not account for those stark reductions.

Here is the historical PE ratios for the tech sector overall market and below that price to sales.

data by Stocklabs

To get down to 2008 levels, we’d need to see stocks lower by another 40%.

If we are to repeat the 73-74 recessionary time period, the issue here isn’t price but time. We would be stuck/trapped in this type of market until the latter part of 2023.

What’s next?

Lower prices and earnings warning and layoffs.

The Dow is off by more than 700 you piece of shits. I told you not to get involved with dat. Why listen to me, the space alien magician who has successfully navigated every single market calamity since the dot com crash.

I entered the day hedged and closed everything out for a slight gain. I did not hold my shorts because I won’t be around today, as my youngest son graduates high school. The last two years of school have been a blur, thanks to COVID and remote learning policies.

The markets are reverting back to normalcy today, crash partners in the face of a crashing economy in a world crashing with violence and supply chain issues. Gas has been CUT to Europe and the Russians are saying it’s due to the sanctions, as they cannot get turbines. They do, however, say NORDSTREAM 2 is available for use right away, something the Europeans must be seething over at this very moment.

Listen to me.

The market went up on news the Fed is going to HIKE RATES into your fucking face, causing RAMPANT unemployment, pain, and suffering. Do not avail yourselves to believe the crisis has ended, in spite of my headline. The fact of the matter is, and pardon me for being candid, the beginning of the end has only just begun.

Having said that, I am not an idiot and positioned myself amidst longs and shorts with a slight bias towards going LOWER. At some point, and hopefully soon, the rally will FAIL and markets will resume its downward trajectory en route towards the inevitable retesting of the COVID lows.

Although terrible, the single best thing that can happen to the west is its complete destruction.

I closed the session DOWN 36bps because I do not gamble and would rather poke my eyes out with BBQ stocks than go directionally long into a brainless rally fueled by emotions.

SIRS–

This is a scam The NASDAQ shot higher and is now STEAMING UP on the news that the Fed might ONLY hike by 50bps next meeting. EXCUSE ME if I interrupt your meth induced thinking — but this is fucking retarded.

The Fed cannot control inflation.

The Fed has LOST the initiative and WAY BEHIND THE FUCKING CURVE.

SIR —

The Fed funds rate is 1.75% and the CPI is 8.6%.

This is DISASTER.

Markets will do what markets will do. But if you’re buying here in the hopes inflation has been defeated — might I remind you now that you are fucking retarded.

Fed’s George said “fuck you” and preferred a 50bps hike, but they all ignored her and did 75bps anyway. The result of this hike in the bond market is MOOT, as yields remain where they were before the news. The Nasdaq is down 1% since the hike, but I suspect that is hot money fleeing for safety — because morons are terrified to lose more.

I had sold my SOXL before the news and have only 5% allocated to BTU — based off the FREEZE POLAND trade. I will likely re-enter the tape after 3pm and believe the market to be doomed. We are in a Fed fuckery zone and no one will escape it alive.

That being said, nothing surprises me and I will keep an open mind to the possibility of a bounce.

NOTE: The Fed funds rate is 1.75%. The market is pricing in 4%.

So which is it? Are you heavily positioned long or short or mostly cash into this fucking move?

HAPPY LGBTQ Pride Fed Day bigots!

The market is optimistic heading into what is arguably the most important policy day for the Fed since the financial crisis of 2008. The expectation is for +75bps and astoundingly the market seems to want even more.

Gone are the days when the Fed helped markets. Traders now only require inflation be defeated, at all costs.

Best case scenario: Fed jacks rates by 75bps and leaves a hint that if inflation abated — they’d be done.

Considering the oversold nature of the market, it’s hard to see how the market would flop after a Fed day like today, but never count out the margin call liquidatoors from ruining an otherwise fine party.

This is where we are in the cycle.

We want the Fed to purposely hike rates so fucking high — that is literally destroys Americans and causes rampant unemployment in order to stave off the inflationary pressures that their own policies caused.

And yes, 100 bps tomorrow, in July and thereafter would be better. The sooner the @federalreserve can get to a terminal FF rate and thereafter can begin to ease, the sooner the markets can recover. https://t.co/lFDNvLl3oU

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) June 14, 2022

The net result would be — a deflationary vortex of economic dislocation — but the leeway for the Fed to start, at some point, QE part 100 again. This is where it all ends — MOAR QE.

Until we get there, we must first ruin Joe Crabshack and ensure his home is foreclosed. Bill Ackman will sop up his entrails and the cycle will continue until we can print no more.

I traded poorly, down 115bps for the session with a slight bias short into tomorrow.

Hourly seasonality in Stocklabs points to bearish afternoons. Couple that with the looming Fed meeting, I flipped my TQQQ for a 2% loss and took a 5% position in TZA. It’s all very small and the fate of TZA isn’t going to move my needle much. I find this tape to be difficult to read — due to the wild ranges and fluctuations. Dare I say, we are teetering here.

Conventual wisdom suggests markets will ride higher into an asinine 75bps hike tomorrow. This is cause for a funeral, not celebration. Nevertheless, people tend to believe and prefer to lie to themselves, not facing the truth of the matter.

The truth is, inexorably, America is on the brink of being humiliated in Ukraine — all of those new weapons abandoned and absorbed into the Russian Federation. Now we are saber rattling with China over Taiwan, always an excuse to neocon our way into needless conflicts. On top of that, our economic state is in shambles.

Suffice to say, we have a long road ahead of us and I hope we can rally, if even for just a bit, in order to bring the grace of hope and joy into the faces of traders if only for a brief moment again — as we descend into the pits of hell and burn for our sins.

All morning I have been entertaining contractors for the new home, just now two at once. In the morning I was a trash man — since the former owner of the house left a big pile of fucking trash for me in the garage without a bin — I approached the trash man who asked me to throw the 20lb bag of trash 10 ft high into his fucking truck. Needless to say, I did not make it and the trash subsequently fell on the floor.

All this and my broker dealer was wonky as fuck this morning led to me placing trades late and then falling prey to the belief system that stocks are permitted to trade up. I closed my longs and my shorts and went long TQQQ — like a moron — and now I am -1.1% on a day when I should be up.

Although 1.1% isn’t much and I am 90% cash, it pains me to even look at it. I do not have the patience for these sort of losses and will do whatever I can to avoid losing more. The present conditions of my accounts, all at or near RECORD highs, is counter to my actual life where things go astray as often as I fall asleep at night and the idea of me having both success and happiness is something I gave up on long ago, as boy turned to man and the difficulties of life and the pangs and horrors of hiring contractors for menial work grates at the very fiber of my existence.