Fly Buy: DAL

I added to my DAL position.

Enough of the pussy talk, there is coin to be made. Crack spreads are sprinting higher this morning, up more than 3% to $23.68. More importantly, WNR has an edge. Do you know what said edge is?

Let us begin.

Domestic refiners make their money from a multitude of spreads, one of which is gas—another Brent/WTI. WNR has their refineries in New Mexico, El Paso, Texas and Virginia. They are within delightful proximity to Cushings, Ok aka where the glut supply of WTI  is stored.  As the world burns, it is my belief the spread between WTI and Brent will widen. As it widens, the executive management team over at WNR will sit back, over a nice tall glass of scotch, and enjoy the ride. Profits will soar. The company will do $7 billion in revenues this year and yet only 35% of the shares are owned by institutions.

How does that stack up to the other refiners? Let’s have a look.

HOC: 99%

TSO: 89%

FTO: 83% (acquired by HOC)

MRO: 81%

HES: 80%

VLO: 76%

SUN: 73%

CVI: 60%

WNR: 35%

Does that make sense? Of course not. Furthermore, with WNR‘s earnings set to explode, thanks to widening spreads, coupled with an industry high 25% of shares sold share, I reckon the perfect short squeeze is about to occur. If you are managing money and need exposure to the refiners, you cannot ignore WNR, especially with a FPE of 9 and 35% institutional ownership. Just my two cents.

Aside from the refiners, I like the airlines for a hedge and I am warming up to the idea of beaten down large caps.

More on that later.

I’m up late on a Saturday night, prepping myself for next week. The news is flashing fast, just like AC-130 gunships over Libya. I think it’s time to discuss losses and how to take them.

Are you ready?

Just do it.

It would be easy and naive for me to simply say “do not buy what I buy.” The reality is, many of you look up to me, for my divine powers, and often follow my trades. Now, if you get MOTR boated or VXX’d, I feel really bad about that, even more so than my own personal losses. That’s who I am. Money is just something that I use to buy shit. It doesn’t define me, which is why I fucking own it. The point I am trying to get across is to stop holding onto losing positions. I can’t condone building long term positions in this wacky world. I cannot promise you anything but death and national debt. So, when you are buying stocks, three conditions must be met for proper risk management.

1. Never build it bigger than 20%

2. Evaluate whether you should cut the loss at -5%.

3. Strongly consider selling all at -10%.

Notice how I didn’t tell you to sell at -10%? Only idiots do that. The market gets hot and cold and coils back and forth for all sorts of oddball reasons. You can’t apply one set of rules for all markets. Again, only idiots do that.

With regards to earnings: at heart, I am a fundy guy. Even though I shit on it, technical analysis is effective. There I said it. I’ve seen Chess, RC, Wood and Scott nail one technical call after another. But, the majority of “technicians” are monkeys, using the religion of technical analysis as a crutch to avoid reading 8k’s. Personally, I believe the future and the present of investing lies within algorithmic trading. Again, there are A LOT of hucksters out there who claim to have the holy grail, when in reality they have shit.

I designed The PPT to tell users what it nails and what it doesn’t do very well. Yes, I advertise its flaws, a cardinal sin for all internet bucket shop hucksters. In other words, there is full transparency as to the accuracy of the algorithm, per stock, per ETF. So if the algo is telling you to sell a stock with 95% success rate over 15 tries, you’re gonna listen. On the other hand, if the hit rate is just 20%, you will know about that and take it with a grain of salt. NOTHING is fool proof and no one has unlocked the secrets to human emotion coexisting with the ebb and flow of capital. The smartest guys in the room have tried and failed. They failed because of hubris.

I have my own money and do not rely on this website to finance my eccentric projects.

Who am I and why should you give a fuck?

I’m no one. I’m the guy behind you on the Dunkin’ donuts line. I am a guy with an edge and a gift at making money in the stock market, doing so professionally for over 14 years.  That’s all.

I am making too much money to waste time talking to you miscreants. My time, mind you, is better served developing orbital space cannons that can be used to vaporize my enemies. This week marked an epic decline in volatility, as investors said “fuck you, you’re dead” to short sellers, and bought stocks as if it was 1999.

Check this out: I am driving in a car without brakes, foot firmly pressed down on the gas— heading for a cliff— fully intending to make it over to the other side.

With regards to WNR, it tracks tightly to crack spreads. Hence, let the crack be your messiah.

Be well or fuck off, makes no difference to me.

A reader requested my technical analysis on crowd favorite WNR. Naturally, I complied.

Note the “Awesome and Amazing” (AnA) formation. It trumps the “Cock and Balls” (CnB).

UPDATE: CRACK

I am distracted by all of the news flow. There are reports of mass casualties in Syria, just because they opted to protest—peacefully—over the killings of many innocents in Daraa. In addition to that, there are reports that dozens have been injured in Amman, Jordan. Again, they are simply protesting for freedom. Although I am cynical about the demands for freedom, truth be told, those governments are the bane of society. They need to be toppled.

So, being the conqueror and liberator that he is, I am going to start a petition to convince BARACKS O’Bama to send our invisible planes into all of these smoldering venues, in order to liberate the armed civilians in these heinous nations. He can bring his French poodle along if he likes. However, I feel it is our duty, as space aliens, to fly our rocket ships over there and drop our sophisticated ordnance on their heads. After the dust settles, like true space invaders, we can ravage them of their natural resources. Pick them dry.

This is not a callous exchange, but a fair business transaction. Freedom for oil. Who’s in?

In other news, the market continues its trek to 14,000. Big gains can be found across the board. If you midgets are not making coin in this market, join The PPT and 12631 for one month, then get back to me. We are minting money.

NOTE: On a personal level, today’s move in WNR affords me a fully loaded Cayenne. Shooting for a Mayback by days end.

Top picks: WNR, OXY, X

I bought 20,000 X.

Disclaimer: Just because.

Do not hate on “The Fly” because his life is so much better than yours. There is no future in your communist way of thinking. I strongly advice that you pray at the altar of Ronald “Mcdonald” Reagan for forgiveness.

I don’t punch clocks and I rarely work. My lifestyle is what some of you might consider “retired.” Back in the old days, I’d work like a jackass horse hybrid of some sort. However, now I just flick cigar ashes at my clients suggestions. Truth be told, I will fire each and every one of them before I die.

OPEN is taking the fuck off, despite what uninformed short sellers post on the interwebs. I knew I’d regret selling it. However, it wasn’t meant to be.

Going forward, I am smoking crack, crack spreads that is. If you are not familiar, go look it up. I am not your helper.

Spreads are up another 2.5% this morning, following yesterday’s 6% gambling spree. I am telling you now, as sure as I am sitting here, the hot money is not invested in the refiners yet.

I am hedging my large refinery bets with long positions in both DAL and LCC.

In short, the streets of Syria and everywhere in the middle east are on fire and Japan is in the process of creating Godzilla via nuclear waste. BEHOLD the splendour [sic] of the stock exchange and get some.

Just to recap what will be described many centuries from now as a “seminal day” in the stock market, I nearly depleted my cash reserves down to about 10%. I booked a stupid loss in PESI and added to a variety of names (see prior posts for details).

At the moment, I am surrounded by 35 iBC guard, all carrying black flags, with the sole purpose to rout and destroy any and all bearshitter in our way. The banner of iBC stands for winship on a magnanimous scale. Whether it be from the mathematical precision inside of The PPT or the surgical strikes taking place inside 12631, iBC reigns supreme. Aside from that, we’ve gone “full retard” into the news business, fucking with your SEO game on a very high level. Let this be a warning to you, your market share is in danger. Be sure to follow us at ibc_fn, or I will eat your bones.

In closing, there is nothing more that matters to me, at this very moment, than refinery stocks. You will bear witness to a great win, done for you in slow motion, space alien magician style.

I added 20,000 WNR to the arsenal.