Fly Buy: OXY

I bought 5,000 OXY, adding to my position.

Disclaimer: If you buy OXY because of this post, all of your comments will be rated “cock-gobbler” from hereon-forth. And, you may lose money.

I sold out of TLT and AG.

I saw “Too Big to Fail” on HBO last night, which by the way is the best movie depicting the financial crisis to date. I particularly enjoyed Giamatti playing Bernanke; he was surreal. Anyway, seeing the movie reminded me of how stupid the government is and how intent they were/are in disallowing deflation.

Well here we are, 3 years removed from that event, and we are dealing with a bigger problem: sovereign debt. However, this one is easier to solve because governments do not need to worry about moral hazard, since the issue at hand is survival and not private sector bullshit. In other words, there is no way they will let Greece or Portugal fail. No fucking way. They will inflate persistently until it’s no longer an option. I contend, the only way it all falls apart is if the Chinese bubble bursts. They are perceived to be the white knight in all of this, with all of the growth and cash. When that perception is tainted or destroyed, there will be a run for the exits on an epic scale. Until that happens, western economies will extend the game as long as they can print money, sending commodities higher.

I don’t know when the sovereign debt issues will be resolved. But rest assured, they will paper over it and the market response will be “inflationary.” Do you really think they will let it all collapse, after all they did, because the Greeks can’t balance a budget? Remember, we are not talking about Greece here, but the banks. The European banks own a lot of the debt. If Greece defaults, the banks will need to raise capital or fail. If they fail, so do we. It’s a global economy, for better or for worse.

From a traders standpoint, the goal is to stay in the game and not get blown up waiting for resolution. Starting today, barring material news of disastrous consequences, I will begin a campaign of buying up beaten down basic material stocks. I will buy a basket of names, all with better than average fundies, in an effort to capture the coming inflation trade, which will happen as sure as I am sitting here.

To do this, I will need to make some wholesale changes.

Stay tuned.

Something to consider.

Also, FAZ is being flagged as OVERBOUGHT. The accuracy stats of the algorithm are the following:

1 FAZ Yes -8.50 80.00 5.00 45.05

That’s 80% over 5 signals for an average loss of 8.5%.

Some OVERSOLD names include:
EEB, PIN, ASI, SINA etc.

Right now, complacency is still high, despite dire warnings of Greek default. Investors, like Pavlov, have been trained to buy dips. So, as of right now, no one is taking this sell off seriously. However, should the ECB continue the path of ignorance, Greece will default and the floor will drop out of the market. But we all know that will not happen, since the world is all about success without failure. The likely scenario is another bailout and a melt your face off rally.

The trillion dollar question is: when?

This whole liquidation process will snow ball, the longer this issue lingers. Eventually, everything will become a “source of funds” as hedge fund managers get blown the fuck out amidst egregious margin calls. Stocks will fall so fast, down to absurd valuations, it will scare you into Sunday school again.

Despite today’s stiff sell off, there are safe havens, especially in the precious metals space, since investors sense fiat currencies are on the way out. However, before you get all “Jakegint” over there, buying up silver like a werewolf on heroin, consider the fact that the trade in precious metals is very crowded, on a global scale. Should equities continue to sell off, there will be a race for the exits, funnel style.

With my money, I am not buying yet. I will keep 50% of my assets in TLT and cash and wait for the high probability trade. As of right now, buying into this market is too risky. Granted, there are benefits for taking on risk, providing things go your way. However, for me, at this moment in time, I am not in a position to make mistakes, so I will tread carefully.

Believe me when I tell you, “The Fly” is looking “majestic” right now, practically floating throughout his office (NO HOMO), decked out in his “monarchy clothes” crown and all. The status of his cock, via WNR, is extraordinary (NO HOMO). It was rather limp this morning. However, as you can see by the current share price, things are looking up (NO HOMO).

Reason being: crack spreads are moving higher, thanks to gasoline dropping less than oil. It’s simply a matter of time before investors sashay, in droves, into the shares of WNR with reckless abandon (NO HOMO).

As for my other shit: I am banking coin in ZSL and TLT, but losing a few in AG/EXK. But the reason why I am “King Cock” is due to my magnificent cash horde, now oversized above 50%. With the market drowning in puddles, “The Fly” stands to benefit immensely vis a vis the direct purchase of your margin liquidation, VIZ.

If you are wondering as to when that might be, I counter with a casual statement, such as “none of your concern” or “see The PPT“, in order to ascertain suchness (NO HOMO).

NOTE: I cannot believe LFT is a fraud. Avoid any and all Chinese related stocks.

Well, many of you cocksuckers wanted “King Dollar.” Enjoy it today, whilst your common stock portfolios get lit aflame and molested by homeless men. Thus far, the dollar is up a staggering 0.8% this morning, based on the growing prospects of Greek default and a potential downgrade of Italian debt.

Look you, I’ve been warning you for over a week to get to cash. You chose to act like a child and stay all in, despite the signs. You might as well spend today’s trading session on the 7th floor of Bergdorf Goodman, than execute yourself during today’s bloodbath. You’re a child and should be treated as such.

I’m expecting a mass Exodus from equities today and a strong treasury market. King dollar reigns supreme and U.S. debt is attractive, especially when compared to the cock gobblers in Europe.

Asian stocks are getting kicked into idle manholes this evening, as investors figure out the math pertaining to the world ending. I know this is hard for you to grasp and/or understand, because you have the IQ of a small goldfish. However, as sure as I am sitting here, in my Gucci designed space rocketship, Earth is going to explode, reducing your bodies into atoms.

As an aside, the dollar is roaring tonight, up 0.7%. And, to boot, oil is getting sharked, down over a buck. Naturally, silver is up, as werewolves continue to horde the idiotic metal to stave off extinction.

I expect to make some money in my TLT tomorrow and lose in my silver stocks, as well as my short silver hedge, because the world is fucked up like that. There is nothing you can do with silver, aside from host high end dinners, sending your butler away to fetch the silver tea kettle. I don’t know what people are thinking, buying silver amidst the Hugh Hendry taking place (treasury bonds up, dollar up). However, truth be told, I have more than 15% of my assets wrapped up in silver stocks, with a hedge long ZSL. The relationship between silver and the underlying stocks is completely off track, as well as the relationship between silver and gold, dollars, candy bars or UFO sightings.

Like the amazing spectaculars at Puma Punku, logic does not exist in SLV.

In closing, prepare to be evaporated shortly.

For one week, Scott is going to offer his fantastic radio show here, on iBC’s front page as well as his blog, for free. For those of you who are familiar, Scott used to do his show here everyday, until the voices in his head told him to do otherwise.

A little background on why Scott is on iBC.

Back in the late 90’s, when I was starting off in the business, Scott was on CNBC all the time. By far, he was my favorite talking head because he was insane. The market was running tits and Scott was aggressive, making bold calls with space alien magician accuracy. Correct me if I am wrong, but he was also on Bloomberg too, where he’d tell people to go “all in” on tech stocks, much to the chagrin of the old fuckers on that channel. Anyway, I was always impressed with his delivery and ability to gauge the market. I even met him once in passing, way back in 2001, when my partner and I were discussing offers from other Wall Street firms, incentives if you will to leave our place of business.

I don’t know the reasons as to why Scott hasn’t been on CNBC in a decade. Perhaps he can share that with the rest of you. I am certain it is an entertaining story. After his stint on CNBC, he went to Fox business to co-host Bull and Bears. Personally, I despised that show, but tuned in just to see what Scott was up to. After a few tweets, emails and one luncheon meeting at the Four Seasons, Scott was accepted into the premier “tabbed” status at iBC.

Do yourselves a favor and log onto the site tomorrow morning, and all of next week, for THE SCOTT BLEIER SHOW, starring SCOTT BLEIER.

Using The PPT screener, I scanned for stocks that have 75% win rates in May, coupled with deviation from the mean of at least 10%. In layman’s terms, the following stocks usually outperform in May, but are woefully sucking cock now.

No. Ticker Seasonality – # Months TOTAL Seasonality – % Months UP Seasonality – Average Monthly Return Seasonality – Month Seasonality – % pts deviation from avg. return (current mont
1 MELA 6.00 83.33 21.19 May -32.51
2 AG 5.00 80.00 14.79 May -31.90
3 DCTH 9.00 77.78 10.26 May -27.66
4 GLDD 5.00 80.00 8.60 May -22.96
5 XEC 9.00 77.78 4.59 May -22.11
6 LQDT 6.00 83.33 20.21 May -20.11
7 MFW 16.00 81.25 6.25 May -18.05
8 UFI 21.00 76.19 8.47 May -16.74
9 OXY 29.00 75.86 4.16 May -16.33
10 SGU 14.00 78.57 8.58 May -14.53
11 RBA 14.00 78.57 2.69 May -14.18
12 EGBN 12.00 83.33 4.44 May -13.30
13 TACT 15.00 86.67 14.73 May -12.74
14 UEIC 19.00 78.95 6.29 May -11.52
15 VRNT 9.00 88.89 11.23 May -10.49
16 HNT 20.00 80.00 6.02 May -10.17
17 UHS 21.00 76.19 8.15 May -10.02