Smashing Up Against a Brick Wall

With WNR down more than 6% now, I am reminded of the rout in my silver stocks when I was visiting North Carolina back in February. Upon landing, I was getting nailed in AG and EXK to the point where I was close to booking the losses and moving on. However, I kept my cool and ended up minting money on both ideas.

WNR, as well as all of the refiners, has a lot of hot money shareholders, people who only care about making coin right now. I’ve seen these people before; they sashay in and out of stocks only for the decadent pleasure of it all, nothing of substance. Let me remind you that WNR, VLO and HOC are operating under ideal scenarios, from a business perspective. Aside from recent share price performance, these are great businesses to be long. All hot sectors go through periods of adjustment, through panic. But if the fundamentals are solid, eventually, you will be rewarded.

Specific to the pinless hand grenade action today: I can only tell you to position defensively, so that you are not flushed out with some margin liquidation. As you know, I have 250%+ of my personal in WNR, which has undergone a real 13% correction times 2.5 this week. In other words, I am barely up for the year. This is NOT the sort of investment style you should be copying. It’s reckless and foolish.

Nevertheless, I am literally playing with the houses money, so there is a certain degree of security in that.

For managed accounts, I am very overweight refiners, specifically WNR and CVI. Thus far, in 2011, I’ve had some really good runs, only to give it back during periods of correction. Frankly, assessing my performance year to date, I’ve been abysmal. I sold out of plenty of good stocks too low, like OPEN and FTK. And, I held onto losers too long, like MOTR and BORN. These are classic mistakes that are easily avoided using standard stop losses.

Bottom line: I am likely going to shake things up a bit, in an effort to find my groove again. As for the refiners, I am not selling out due to VLO’s issues. Aside from hedges, the underlying EPS for their qt. was $1.00, .70 cents better than expectations. With crack spreads sustaining $25, it’s only a matter of time before these fuckers turn around again.

Some are very good at explaining their ideas and methods, by example. It’s their gift of patience, greedy proclivities, or the fact that no one else will listen to them, that leads them to such a profession. Mind you, being a teacher is not a noble profession unless it’s done with good intentions. There are excellent teachers on this site, like ChessnWine, Ragin Cajun and Scott Bleier, who can walk you through ideas, like pissing in the breeze with ease. I, on the other hand, do not teach because I do not like to tell you anything.

It all started when I was a young boy, throwing 90mph fastballs at the heads of unsuspecting rivals. When I dropped the hook on them, making them swing and miss like school girls in the boys gyms class, they’d ponder how I learned to throw such a pitch. As far as I viewed it, it was none of their concern. As fate would have it, by senior year, my rotator cuff gave way, also leading to the birth of my quest towards financial wizardry. But, to be perfectly blunt with many of you (not all), I loathe the idea of teaching anything, for I feel as if my life is not complete. I realize this is a character flaw, which in turn keeps the fire in my stomach burning red hot. I can only tell you my habits and allow you to rent my financial tools (The PPT); but I am not ready to profess anything, as long as fuckers like DAVID TEPPER are out there banking billions through weak performance data.

In the world of twitter and smoke with mirrors, many claim to be the real deal. Being that I am mostly anonymous, I cannot pass judgement on the respective track records of any of my rival bloggers out there. However, I will tell you, emphatically, they are indeud dick suckers of the first order. Most of them have never held proper corporate employment and tend to live a very, shall I say, laissee faire life, sucking on twizzlers whilst declaring market wins. I am very sorry to tell you, your financial advice is unpolished and woefully inadequate, especially compared to the stuff published here on iBC.

If I was in your shoes, a Joe Public reader of sorts, I’d declare all other financial websites to be null and void, immediately, as their panache simply doesn’t match up to the Clam-like times we live in now. If I was you, I’d most certainly cancel any and all subscriptions held away from iBC and donate said soft dollars to Woodshedder, so that he too could celebrate Christmas this year.

In the big scheme of things, we’re all dipshits, some more than others. Everyone has an opinion, which most of the time is nothing more than a vote into a collective train of thought. There are very few out there who think outside of the cluster-fuck, if you know what I mean. I tend to abhor mankind, which is why I am able to outstrip you, every step of the way.

I was down about 1.6% today, despite large gains in FORM, OXY, SHLD and CY. My big dicked WNR/CVI positions came home to roost today, as every gay male west of Japan sold refiners with reckless abandon. I will not bitch and moan about the “dumbness” of the market or how unjust it treated me today. It is what it is, right or wrong. On most days, I bathe in my enemies blood, while eating their livers. However, today, those fucking bastards are eating mine.

After the bell, it appears FORM blew out EPS estimates.

In summary, I doubled my SHLD position today and started a new one in PLAB. And, I got my brains blown the fuck out in my refinery stocks. That’s all.

Some jackass penned a WNR versus VLO piece this morning and now everyone is running for the exits. The people who blog through Seeking Alpha don’t know what they are talking about and should be ignored. Comparing VLO to WNR is like comparing PG to GMCR. Naturally, PG has the better balance sheet and is a great hold for old fuckers; but GMCR has the caffeinated high that us younger types crave, offering greater upside. The same thing applies to WNR. Sure, the balance sheet needs some work. However, last I checked, there are some kickass tailwinds out there.

Leverage into a down cycle is disastrous. However, if you are leveraged into nirvana, well then, prepare to bank coin.

For me, this is NOT a buying opportunity, due to my oversized position. However, if I didn’t own the name, I’d be buying with both hands today.

Last I checked, the Brent-WTI spread was still wide. And, 321 crack was soaring today, now up more than 5%. I knew this would happen, post VLO earnings. This is the unvarnished fact, not opinion: despite what the goat fucker from Seeking Alpha says VLO isn’t as good as HOC, TSO, WNR and ALJ, due to proximity of their refineries to cheap crude. During the VLO conference call, they praised their Eagle Ford refinery, as garnering supreme cracks. Well, guess what fuckface, THAT’s ALL WNR DOES: Eagle Ford all day, every day.

NOTE: I sold out of MOTR.

I doubled my SHLD position.

UPDATE: I started a new position in PLAB.

Disclaimer: If you buy SHLD because of this post, you will be inserted into a mental facility for the remainder of your adult years. And, you may lose money.

I want to take this opportunity to remind my readers, especially the new ones, that I do not write on iBC for your benefit. As a point in fact, I hate you and wish that you’d go elsewhere. Do not think that “The Fly” is your personal financial advisor, not even for a solitary second. I am simply documenting extreme winship, on an industrial scale, so that future generations can look back upon these hallowed grounds and say “holy shit, that guy was ‘Gretzy housing’ it.” Like ancient catacombs or nonsense scribbled inside of pyramid walls at Giza, people will come back to iBankcoin and learn how the 21st century lived. There will be college courses designed to study “advanced history of the interwebs” using iBC as its only example.

One of you little faggots complained about X, U.S. Steel, being down $1.50 today. Full disclosure, I am down about 9% on the name and might sell it. That’s part of investing: you win some and you lose some. Thus far, 2011 has not been a very profitable one for me, aside from my personal aggressive account where I invest like an crack head. For managed accounts, I am up about 10%. Within some of my current positions, here is my unrealized percentage gains and losses:

WNR: +16%
OXY: +2%
VCLK +4%
MWW +13%
FORM +3%
X: -9%
ALJ: +3.5%
MOTR: +1%
CVI: -4%
SHLD: +4%
CY: +1%

The above names are the lionshare of companies discussed here on my bloggie. If you should happen to only own X, well then, the odds of having a “down Fly stock” is 2 in 11. An objective party might surmise that you, as a point in fact, are an unlucky jackass. To come here and besmirch this holy temple is equal to destroying ancient artifacts or BBQing near extinct animals, when we all know they should be sautéed.

I gather a great many of you were quite perturbed last night about today’s prospects. As you can see, following a slew of excellent earnings reports, things are very well indeud. My schedule is a bit convoluted these days, as I juggle the responsibilities of being a “space alien magician” and ripping down my house in order to built a new one. As the Lords of our land would have it, I have brand new responsibilities today pertaining to an automobile in great need of a tire change.

As I delve into this new task, I expect, simultaneously, to make a great deal of money in the stock market.

On a separate note, VLO posted solid numbers. However, I am expecting much better results from WNR.

As you read this, crack spreads are up another 4% to $25.30 and the stock market is on the verge of moving up another notch.

I never understood “the millionaire next door.” To live a life of frugality is equal to not living at all. In other words, what the fuck are you saving your money for? I rather live like a fucking King in my 30’s, than a comfortable senile old fucker at 70. We’re trained to believe in the notion of “saving for a rainy day.” Scum bags like Suze Orman profess selling off spare kidneys in order to increase interest income during light years. If you are saving money to build a business or buy some property, fine, that’s smart. However, if you are a sick person, like some of the old fuckers I know collecting cans out of the trash, who happen to have $20 million in savings, seek professional help.

This is the way I see it: live good and smart, die without regrets. It’s important to leave a legacy behind, something to build upon the family name through fortune. However, it’s far more important to do what you want to do. For me, having money is about not having to worry. I don’t need to worry about haggling over prices, because the difference between a $500 mirror and a $2,000 mirror is negligible. If you are still of the mindset to always get a good deal, you’re a fucking idiot. Period.

I grew up without money, living like a fucking vagabond with holes in my sneakers. Now that I have a little, I tend to not think about spending it, only acquiring more.

I bought more MOTR.

As I deal with general contractors and Italian tile guys, the market is resting after a big move up. Today’s downside action is minimal and should be bought. Amongst my holdings, I am most pleased with MWW, VCLK, X and SHLD today. As the move in oil matures, I will be allocating new money into tech/retail: hence, I have been buying CY and SHLD. I believe the move in silver is woefully idiotic. However, I was never a fan.

Ahead of VLO earnings tomorrow, I like my chances long ALJ, CVI and WNR. However, if VLO doesn’t blow out the quarter, do not couple VLO with WNR, as their businesses are entirely different. VLO focuses more on sour/heavy crude, while WNR is plain jacking suckers in Texas for “cheap as fuck” crude.

Listen to me as if your entire torso was one giant eardrum, hear me with your entire life force: we are not done going higher. Fuck Syria and everyone in the middle east. We will tomahawk them all and strip them from their natural resources.

The United Steaks of America is an empire in decline, buoyed by a space aged military, which makes us quite dangerous. Before we give up the mantle of world dominance, we shall endeavor to burn your cities to the ground, then salt your lands. This is not a joke, but an assured outcome. Our tanks will shoot holes into your factories, sending your unemployment rate to triple digits.

Nevertheless, before our machine of war operates with impunity inside of your finest cities, our stock market will rise, based upon the desperate attempts of our Central Bank to save the financial system from an inevitable and most horrendous collapse.