iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,376 Blog Posts

BEARISH

Let me be clear: I am bearish on world markets while nuclear power plants threaten to turn one of the world’s biggest and most vibrant city into a wasteland. I do not care about bounces, for I am good enough to make coin in any market.

I strongly advise all of those who value my opinion to refrain from buying dips, like idiots driving in ice cream trucks, especially while the country of Japan is vapor-lock shut down.

You thought Lehman was a big deal? You thought the “Asian Contagion” of the 90’s was hard?

You haven’t seen anything yet.

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Read the Future

Imagine you were in a stupid room with decorative glass windows. You know, the ones  that were crowd favorites of the American Psycho crowd back in the 80’s. Now imagine yourself reading my blog, commenting on “The Fly” selling too early. Bear with me, for I am about explain what is in store for you.

You left some comments like “WTF n00b, sold early, hahahahaha,” then took a few sips from your faggotty glass of wine. Then you heard a noise, sounds of laser beams and shit. So, you put your small glass of chardonnay down to take a peak. You walked into the living quarters; but found nothing. So you head back to your desk to revile Le Fly a little bit more. You were having a grand old time on the internets.

Then, suddenly, a fucking spaceship appeared out of nowhere, outside of your bullshit decorative windows. Immediately, a fucking robot arm broke through the fancy glass and punched your face in, shattering the glass of chardonnay all over your mustache.

I WILL FUCKING KILL YOU. That’s like a direct threat to your personal safety. You might get away with talking shit on other sites. iBankcoin, specifically my blog, IS NOT OTHER SITES. I have serious testosterone issues. I am alpha to your omega.

Here, let me explain this shit to you in psychopath caps and quit fucking around.

I AM VERY MAD THAT I SOLD NEAR THE LOWS. I WANT TO PUNCH THINGS AND INFLICT BODILY HARM TO RANDOM HOMELESS PEOPLE.  I AM VERY MUCH INTERESTED IN KICKING OLD MEN IN WHEEL CHAIRS DOWN SUBWAY STAIRS.

There, I said it.

Now that I got that off my chest, understand that nothing has changed but the weather in Tokyo. I will ride to the death in WNR, now more than 25% of my holdings. PESI is a small holding, which has no bearing on my life. I kept MAS, FLWS, WFC, TEVA, ADBE, FORM and C. And, I initiated a new position in VLO. Sure, staying in cash for months on in protects you from nuclear meltdown events. However, I come to play and win everyday. I much rather swing and miss, than watch that shit pass me by and get called out.

My 60% cash position will be allocated as soon as I am comfortable.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqqkED6H8zk 616 500]

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Taking Control

I sold out of some pretty big positions this morning, regardless of price. When I make up my mind, I try to get the best possible price. However, it’s not a deal killer. I don’t mind slippage in exchange for control. In this case, I NEED to have total control of my assets at play here, in order to navigate this market properly. So, I took a staggering 30% loss in BORN, even though I was up on it LAST WEEK. I have the scumbags from Rodman and Renshaw and CCME and CAGC to thank for that. And, I kicked out of OPEN, even though I love the name.

Stocks like OPEN will get eaten alive should this market go down for a period more than 5 days.

With some of the proceeds, I bought nuclear clean-up spec play PESI, VLO and lots more WNR. Keep in mind, crack spreads are down 7% this morning and WNR is flat. I reckon your local asset manager is doing some rotation right now, out of oil exploration into refiners. It’s a no brainer, if you think about it with your dog brain for more than 10 seconds.

Additionally, I sold off some other ancillary positions, bringing my cash position to 60%. It doesn’t get higher than that. I still own some stocks and will buy more, if the price is right. However, I needed to stop the losses now before they became punitive. I can correct a 10% pullback in my portfolios. However, if I let 10% turn into 20% then 30%, I would have dug myself an “idiot box.”

Bottom line: I am now in control, despite my temporary set backs.

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The House of Cards is Collapsing

I’ve always felt as if I was on borrowed time, long this market. Often times, I’d tell people this. If you know me, I have probably mentioned it to you once or twice. The idea that we could manufacture new money, instead of good and services, in order to escape the wrath of depression is a last ditch attempt, sort of like Japan using firehoses and seawater to solve a nuclear meltdown (I suppose the aliens didn’t tell us how to shut it off). Even if you look back on my 2011 market predictions, I said volatility, via VXX, would be the best trade of 2011.

Reasoning: I was expecting a surprise event that would fuck the markets sideways.

The house that Ben built is collapsing and there is little that can be done. There was no way for his nerds to forecast this disaster; but it happened. It’s very likely that the market will rally significantly, within a week or so, based upon some sort of minor victory over nuclear power plants. But the wheels are in motion. The amount of money that Japan will need to borrow will be the straw that broke the camels back. If their rates uptick, it is game over for them. They will default and flush everyone down with them, including the FUCKING BASTARDS FROM CHINA. You know, that shithole where FAKE AND FRAUDULENT COMPANIES DERIVE FROM, LISTING HERE IN THE STATES, LYING TO OUR AUDITORS.

The recovery here in the U.S. has been tenuous at best. We cannot afford the world’s third largest economy to go offline. Don’t forget, more than 30% of the global NAND (flash memory) supply is made in Japan. That will affect everything from ipads to laptops.

Here’s the trade:

Sell everything.

As of yesterday’s close, I was 30% cash, heavily long stocks like WNR and OPEN. I will keep WNR; but everything else is subject to immediate liquidation. I am not interested in playing chicken with a fucking nuclear power plant. At this stage, the value of your account is not relevant. Your strategy should revolve around preservation, live to fight another day.

I will not buy any inverse ETF’s or short stocks at this point, because there is a chance for a sharp rally off the carnage. However, I am very much interested in getting a whole lot smaller, especially before everyone else starts bugging the fuck out. If this downside has legs, this is merely the opening salvo, into a series of market drops that will make you wish you had listened to me today.

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Panic

Until the nuclear situation is resolved in Japan, expect the markets to remain weak. Thus far, everything is down in Japan tonight, which is spreading to all markets trading in Asia. In addition to the declines, prices of gasoline, heating oil and NAND/DRAM chips are ripping higher, based upon supply disruption. This sort of adds salt to the wounds. However, as market participants, it’s our job to exploit these disconnects.

From what I have gathered, Micron’s fabs are unscathed and stand to benefit the most from the subsequent price spikes. As for the heating oil/gasoline, let’s hope that crude continues lower, effectively jacking up the crack spreads for the refiners. Keep in mind, my little refiner WNR reported “record spreads” last quarter at $16.50 per barrel. Guess where they are now?

$24!

That is pure profit. Fuck, spreads are the highest in recent history and the stocks are still 50% lower from where they were trading in 2007. Look for dog brained money managers to swap out of their exploration oil/gas stocks in exchange for the refiners. This will be my best trade, year to date.

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WINNER (WNR)

I warned you fuck-bags to get long WNR and other refiners. You chose to ignore my teachings in exchange for sheer stupidity. So you know, I am long 150,000 WNR in my personal accounts, betting on margin expansion. Crack spreads will widen, as the crisis in Japan extends. Their refineries will not be able to handle demand once reconstruction is underway. Opt to ignore my teachings again and I will be eating your livers in no time at all.

I sold out of a plethora of idiot stocks, in order to slow shit down and focus on the new thesis. I felt it was time for a change. Therefore, I changed.

With millions in cash and millions more invested accurately, I am sure my story will end as expected: winship. While I would like all of you to win alongside with, the reality is that many of you are built for the explicit purpose of losing. For the remainder of the night, I will redouble my efforts, scouring The PPT, using profile keyword searches and volume screens, to find my next winner.

Adapt or get crushed.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS8E14sRDo8&feature=related 616 500]

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Sidelining It

I am opting out of this market, to an extent, for now. I sold out of some big positions, including APC, PSUN and BZ. I did so, even though I had nice profits in them a short while ago. It’s important to understand yesterday’s profit is gone. You cannot base your decisions based upon the past. That’s like going to the store and offering to buy a can of soda of .65, because that was the price when you were 8.

For now, I kept BORN, OPEN, FORM, FLWS, MAS, ADBE, WFC, TEVA and C. However, the bulk of my energy is building up my WNR position, especially with crack spreads at $25. And, I took a gamble on this PESI. Other than that, I am 30% cash and watching this shit with a bowl of popcorn on my lap, throwing crumbs at the teevee, where all those faggots talk shit.

NOTE: If you haven’t noticed, iBC is Johnny on the Spot with the news these days. Be sure to follow us on Twitter, as our feed automatically updates there.

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