GET IN THE GUILLOTINE

The Federal Reserve is going to punch you in the face, one way or another. The market is in lift-off mode right here, solidifying my belief this is a net long or all cash tape. Getting short here is too hard, due to policy risk. If you want to short, wait for the crisis to pass and base your picks around the economy. At this stage, everything is whipsawing around, in frantic, panicky, retard mode.

I sold out of all of my TLT position for a small gain and have begun allocating said dollars into AG. I have my reasons, all revolving around the idea that silver stocks outperform during risk on periods and are sheltered during “fuck you, you’re dead” modes. And, with “Operation Twist” right around the corner, I am a seller of treasuries.

I tripled down on my VMW call position and added to common. I am rather emphatic about the prospects of airlines, even though they are hated. The numbers look good. Take a minute to look at them before casting aspersions. God willing, cracks come in and LCC soars.

With regards to WNR: it is now a minority position of mine, less than 5%. I simply could not wait any longer for the stock price to catch up to the fundies. However, I look forward to revisiting the name, down the road.

I am tempted to get long NFLX here. However, the stock is under too much pressure, due to insane headline risk. This saga will be memorialized in college textbooks on how NOT to raise prices and fuck up your company in the process. It is unbelievable how much damage was afflicted to this company because of intervention. NFLX reminds me of the US government, always meddling with customers (tax payers). Sometimes you just have to let things flow, especially if the model isn’t broken. I am not sure who benefits from a wounded NFLX, aside from short sellers. But, these sort of blackswan drops rarely portend something big. Everyone thought BP was going to zero when they fucked up the GOM. Yet, the stock was on sale during the crisis and advantageous longs benefitted greatly from buying the blood. Without a doubt, buying the NFLX blood will reward people handsomely. The only question is: when? If I were to buy, I’d implement a buy program, acquiring shares every 5% down, starting with a 50% position now.

I bought a large amount of AG.

UPDATE: I added to my VMW position.

Disclaimer: If you buy AG because of this post, the next time you see Hugh Hendry in the street, he will punch you in the face. And, you may lose money.

I sold out of my TLT position.

European markets are not crashing and our futures are indicating a higher open. The sociopaths at S&P must be saddened by this news, as their intent is to fuck with people and jar markets. If they were really interested in grading credit properly, they would have done so in 2007. As far as I am concerned, it’s too late for redemption. Their credentials should be stripped and doors closed for good.

If we rally today, I will most likely do nothing, yet again. My positions are in limbo, basically flat, awaiting a catalyst to press forward. MU has that RMBS lawsuit, which should be decided on shortly. Either way, MU is absurdly cheap down here.

Unless the ball of yarn gets tossed down the steps, I will remain positioned for a tech rally in October, with a TLT hedge. I will not allocate cash into this market due to the risks to the banking system. Understand, the type of risk that is present now can sink the market 20% in a single day. On the other hand, policy makers are obsessed with creating inflation, which is viewed as bullish for stocks. These cross-currents make for a psychopathic market, one that cannot be trusted, long or short. Knowing that, I will continue to trade small and try to make the best of this fucked up situation.

I spoke too early when I said the bears were setting up to be executed. As you know by now, the devil’s advocate, S&P, downgraded Italy to A, outlook negative. I know the knee-jerk reaction is to ignore “suchness.” However, Italian 10yr bonds are already too high, at 5.58%. This is going to press the envelop on Spain too and soon after, France. The only way this gets kicked down the road is if the ECB levers up the EFSF and prints euros like a motherfucker to dilute the debt. Due to the political differences, this is not likely to happen.

Even though the patient has cancer and is going to die without medicine, the guardians are so embedded in their own way of thinking, it’s virtually impossible for them to agree on anything that will save the patient. Why?

Answer: politics.

I am now 45% cash and treasuries, due to my permanent floor of 30% cash and oversized TLT position. Although I will lose money tomorrow, I suspect the market will snap back after the Fed takes action. Nevertheless, the way this “crisis” is unfolding, one has to think it’s being done on purpose. Seriously, criminal masterminds could not plan this out better, if they were hell bent on destroying the western banking system. It’s as if our leaders were hired guns for Al Qaeda, purposefully dismantling America one brick at a time. I can guarantee you this: Obama’s holy war against the rich will fail and he will be a one term President. It is truly unbelievable how jaded this man is, with regards to “the rich.” Trust me, I hate talking politics and rarely feel this passionate about these sort of things. But, if this country is interested in getting the fuck out of this manufactured depression, we need to elect Romney, and fast.

Get the Baine in there and you will see this market roar.

Fucking cowards. I was willing to sit at my desk and lose 5% today, amidst a barrage of unforgiving sell orders by the prescient bears. Instead, I lost less than 1% and the bulls fucking steamrolled the bears in the final hour of trade.

Prepare to be kicked in the balls, then decapitated, my ursine enemies.

There isn’t a place in the world you can hide, as The Clam is an expert at hiding and knows where to look.

With just two days before your funeral, ask yourself “what shall I do in my final days?”

As for me, I sold some non-essentials, eyeballed some other shit, made arrangements to buy more equities. My only problem: stocks aren’t cheap enough. Aside from GSVC and CIEN, I am up or flat on all of my positions, so there isn’t a great sense of urgency for me to do anything. At a minimum, I will sell my TLT and throw that money into a fucking flaming barrel of garbagio aka “stocks.”

I know this market is making you sick. Do not fear, the BEARDED CLAM is watching, blunt in hand, saying “I’m gonna get those bitches on Wednesday, GYEAH.”

Internals blow. Stocks, save AAPL, are being bludgeoned to death. I sold out of AMCC and BYD for losses. My cash, including treasuries, is around 45%. The pain is bad, but not nearly as bad as the pain you will feel when the pendulum swings back to the bulls favor. For now, I remain positioned strongly in MU, VMW, FFIV, TLT, CIEN, GSVC , LCC with a small legacy sized position in WNR.

Unfortunately, gold and silver is where the money will flow, once risk is back on the table. Stocks like AG, EXK and AGQ have melted the fuck up on almost every rally this year.

Best case scenario: the blood flows heavy into the bell, spilling over into tomorrow’s session, leading to a late day reversal into the clam on Wednesday.

I am still sitting here, with my tall glass of water, watching my holdings decrease in value. I must admit, I am a bit disappointed by the action thus far. I was expecting a 4-5% sell off in my positions. But with my 30% cash position and 10% TLT position, I am only down a mere 0.8%. God willing, the selling will accelerate as the day progresses, properly punishing “The Fly” for ignoring his own algorithms. Since it’s in the past, I will tell you: The PPT flagged OVERBOUGHT on Thursday, making that 7 accurate signals in a row. If you really want to annoy me today, just ask “hey Fly, if your PPT is so fucking good, how come you don’t use it?”

Go ahead, I fucking dare you.

My only solace is seeing gold trade lower. The dollar reigns supreme, pissing on all currencies around the world.

Gentlemen, we are in the midst of a pervasive and severe deflationary vortex. US citizens now have a record $10 trillion in bank accounts. US corporations have over $2 trillion in cash, the highest levels as a percentage of market caps since the 1960’s. I am telling you now, The Fed needs to “create” more inflation. Quit looking at oil and gold as barometers for inflation. The credit markets are absolutely broken, expressly detailed by the lack of home refinances in a super low rate environment.

The only reason why I have 10%+ of my assets in TLT is because we are in a deflationary vortex, duh. However, should the Fed step in with a trilly, in a new QE, I am getting the fuck out of treasuries, in favor of equities.

As long as the European buttfuckers keep the world on edge, this fucking bullshit will persist. Until a resolution is reached, trade the ranges and survive the death tape. “The Fly” is punished right now and is unable to trade, until his penance expires.

First I voted for 0bama, now I am long into a market crash. The world works with mathematical precision. If you would take a moment away from your retarded sports events to examine the miracles of climate and how life is able to sustain in the harshest environments possible, you would soon understand there is a certain design to this planet. At times, I ignore these designs and attempt to wing it, using intuition and good ole fashioned American grit as my tools. However, in the end, American grit looks like 0hio.

For the past two trading days, “The Fly” woefully underperformed a runaway market, ignoring all of the tell-tale signs of a market top, even my very own quant. Tomorrow’s losses will be well deserved. I will savior the loss of prestige and capital, as if it were happening to my dearest of enemies. To ignore the laws of reason, based around the calculations of mathematical precision, is a crime. I am being very clear with you. I should’ve known better, but now find my self (ignorant grammar error alert!) in a most horrendous position, in the back of a jam sandwich, AND MORE. I will not sell on open, for that would give me great relief through closure. No. Instead, I will sit idle, in my non-bullshit chair that was not purchased in Staples, with nothing more than a glass of water and eyes to watch in horror as my money dwindles away like intelligence in Louisiana.

Yes, all of the ghouls are out early this evening and it has nothing to do with the Emmys. We have our own drama unfolding, all to do with the full and absolute collapse of the western banking system, stemming from the cradle of civilization itself. It’s rather ironic isn’t it?

Futures are lower by 16 and the Twittersphere of economic scholars are rife with discussions of failed auctions, German elections, and American depression. Without a doubt, the market is due for a 2-3% pullback. However, this sort of futures action portends to something far, far more sinister.

Look for the market to be engulfed by electric clouds and acid rain, eroding anything in its path. If you are long, sort of like me, expect swift decapitation and do not fear, for it will be quick. The pain will not last long once the lightening bolt strikes your heart, as your anatomy disintegrates into a pile of black ash.