18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Ladies and gentlemen, where the Turkey Gods failed you, the blades of Santa’s sleigh will deliver. The time has come to turn up the musica and dance on the faces of short sellers. They are everywhere, like a disease. You need to rout them out and smoke them (no Bush) for the sake of humanity. All of this talk of collapse has me sick to my stomach. On the eyes of Athena, this war hasn’t even begun.
Take your Italian yields and put them on a hero. Dress that hero with extra virgin olive oil, herbs de provence and balsamic vinegar, then shove it up your ass.
“The Fly” doesn’t like to worry about money. This shit should be automatic, like my car. I want to eat on my gold plated dishes in peace, without assholes like you zerohedging my breakfast.
Thus far, I’m up another 1.2% today, making that +6.2% over the past two days.
All of you clowns can fuck missile interceptors and solar panels for all I care.
Rumor has it S&P is setting up to downgrade France over the next two weeks. However, yields are dropping in France and our markets are edging higher. Basically, longs are pissing on the heads of shorts.
In case you were wondering the extent of the carnage within the banks, FAS (3x upside bank ETF) is the worst performing ETF over the past month– down 34%. Surprisingly, EDC (3x upside emerging markets) is the second worst performing ETF, down over 32%. XIV (inverse volatility) rings in at -29% and ERX (3x upside oil stocks) is down 27%, over the course of the past month.
On the internet, everyone likes to talk shit. We’re all heroes and everyone is a millionaire. However, I know many of you are down for the year, even though you won’t admit it. I see the carnage in my world, first hand, through accounts that are self directed. Do not beat yourself up over losses. This has been a very tricky market. I’ve been fucked all year round, vacillating between gains and losses, despite my calculator brain. Ask yourself, if space alien magicians can’t make money in this tape, how can I?
Precisely.
Many of you do not stand a chance. Your brains are simply too small and your DNA holds you back from seeing through the forest. Hang in there and be patient. Soon enough, this market will get easy, enabling retards to morph into geniuses.
Over the past month, some mega cap stocks have performed well, like EL, LOW, SNP and VRX. But I am not interested in that shit. I like mean-reversion. Meaning: I want to own what others are selling, mainly because they are jackasses and wrong. On the other end other mega cap spectrum is LYG, BAC, MS, SLF, ING, C, CS, IBN, SLT, NMR, DB, MT, MFC and RIG–all down more than 22% over the past month. That’s a hard basket to own and Cramer is looking for DEFCON 3 in the financials. I am not going to buy them; but I am not scared of them at these levels. Hidden in that mix is MT. That might be a buy, as well as SLT.
STAY AWAY FROM RIG. Those fuckers are a mess. They are selling shares after buying the shit out of their own stock at much higher prices. They are, without a doubt, in crisis mode–just like NFLX.
Bottom line: the market seems to want higher. I am not giddy and do not have the right to brag just yet. But the action is definitely encouraging.
NOTE: Iran raided a British embassy. Oil works here and the WTI-Brent spread should widen, putting the refiners back in play.
If the Euro goes below $1.31, I am a seller of stocks. It needs to consolidate here or trade up to $1.36 in short order to get risk appetite going.
Banks
I am watching ING, BAC, MS, JEF, GS, BCS. Some foreign banks worth monitoring: Unicredit, Intesa, BNP Paribas, SocGen, amongst other stupid European banks.
I’m watching the price of gold and silver closely as a barometer of risk. When gold and silver are up, I feel good about stocks. Silver is like a 3x gold ETF, in terms of volatility.
I’m watching “global growth” plays like JOYG, CLF, TEX, FLS, BHP and CAT. Big tech names like AAPL, GOOG, ORCL and CRM are also on the watchlist.
Commodities
I am watching Copper, Oil, Coal, Aluminum and Lithium.
Finally, I am interested in corporate. government and municipal credit. You can view this via JNK, LQD, HYG, PCK, MUB and TLT.
Before I sell some silver and allocate my cash reserves into high beta names, I need to see all of the things above move in the right direction. There are market tells everywhere. Don’t be so stubborn about the possibility of a smash your skull in rally. If there is one consistent aspect to trading this tape over the last three years it is to have faith in the central bankers to attempt to reflate. Granted, this is a very tall order. However, I don’t see how they keep their jobs in an unorganized, catastrophic default.
They will throw the kitchen sink. Bank on it.
When the ball gets rolling again, I will bulk up on names like WNR, FFIV, DECK, FLS, and a plethora of heavily shorted stocks. For now, I have 60% of my assets in precious metals and cash–with a side order of LULU, GSVC, RBCN and a few others.
Whether Europe’s problems have been resolved today or not is irrelevant. What’s important to monitor are European yields and the Euro. Frankly, today’s stock market rise is outperforming the risk off bond tells. Italian yields are hardly down the the euro is flat. Today’s melt up is not indicative of something huge. This is merely a respite, a relief rally of sorts after an abysmal sell off.
Do not misconstrue my predilections for throwing bearshitters into open fields of lit tar. I am still worried that my brain will be chewed out by zombies, fueled by European shit, encased in Chevy Volts.
I quadrupled my WNR position. I like my chances with WNR under $12.
Finally, gold and silver make the most sense to me. If the euro collapses, the dollar isn’t going to be the sole source of liquidity. I have to believe large institutions will park cash in precious metals until the smoke clears from Europe. On the other hand, if the bailouts commence, the market will view that as inflationary, lending towards the denigration of the US dollar–buoying the price of gold and silver.
At the moment, I have more than 40% of my assets in gold/silver stocks and another 20% in cash.
I’m up more than 4% today. However, I sense weakness in this tape. I was up more than 6% earlier; now things are sort of drifting lower amidst anemic volume. I’d refrain from adding to positions here, unless we regain today’s highs. Should that happen, odds are we rally again tomorrow.
Black Friday’s retail sales were the best ever. Ignore what the jackasses tell you, regarding the US economy. Let me fill you in on something: broke fuckers like you do not drive this economy. Fuckers like you do not employ people. It’s people like me who drop $10k on a pleasant afternoon at the mall. It’s distinguished top hatted gentleman like me who employ people and make sure they have food on their tables.
Having said that, rest assured, we are setting up for the biggest and baddest holiday shopping spree ever. You don’t need to believe me. All you have to do is sell short LULU against me. That’ all.
Yes Europe is a fucking mess. Yes, the market has been very difficult. I’ve wiped out my +16% returns over the past 3 weeks by believing in the old world order. Now if you are some fucktard who may or may not run a virtual hedge fund on the interwebs, declaring you are in fact “the new Wall Street,” I have a piece of advice for you: fuck off.
This is what should be bought into the squeeze: commodities.
I like silver via AG, EXK and AGQ.
I like gold via RGLD, NGD and GLD.
I like retail via LULU and the refiners CAN BE BOUGHT here, via WNR, HFC or ALJ.
My stocks may not suit your taste. Believe me, there are hundreds of solid picks right now. The PPT has a wide array of targeted screens that will help you bottom pick, if you are so inclined to do so. I invite you to give it a try.
One final word on GSVC. I know many of you hate the stock, since it has done nothing but disappoint. However, let me remind you this is a very innovative model, which inherently harbors great risk and volatility. They just announced several new deals. The major take away: they’ve upped their stakes in both Facebook and Twitter to more than 30% of the fund. This is HUGE. Anyone who is interested in getting exposure to the best private companies on the web can do so via GSVC. Hate all you want, both Facebook and Twitter are real and will only increase in value over time.
The cromagnons over at Zerohedge, collectively, are suffering from erectile dysfunction this morning, as the miniature guillotines aka “dick-choppers” roll into Wall Street to exact revenge against those who bet against the world order.
The trap was laid late last week by luring people into dynamite rigged FAZmobiles– with the hopes that yields in Europe meant the end. Ask yourself, did the European Union throw the kitchen sink at the problem? Did you really think they would elect for Woodshedder’s form of justice through ridiculously unnecessary pain and suffering via unorganized defaults? It’s fucking laughable.
Europe is rising and the bulls are firmly in control, for the time being.
This is where the weak hands, those unable to sustain volatility, get off the roller coaster and go make some pancakes for themselves. I am talking directly to many of you. The market is not for everyone. This shit practically kills me 4-5 times per year, every year, no matter how good/seasoned I am. If you are unable to deal with losses, sell today and enjoy the holidays with a little more money in your cheap ass jeans.
“The Fly” will not sell today because it is his destiny to win big and his denim is premium.
Let’s chat in a few hours and see if the bulls can hold onto this nuclear football or detonate themselves.
The hardest part about being wrong is compounding errors with more errors. For example: I’ve been long and wrong over the past two weeks, wiping out all of my YTD gains. I could very easily hit the reset button by selling it all, in an attempt to salvage my year through precision picks. However, I run the risk of missing out on the biggest and baddest rally the world has ever seen.
Like it or not, the Europeans will eventually print euros. When they announce this plan, the market will soar by at least 400 on day one, then another 600 over the next two weeks. By selling out at the lows, stopping the bleeding, I may sink my ship by missing out on the wondrous one day snap back rally for the ages. This is why we haven’t seen a 2008 flush out yet, despite the horrific news.
When we do rally, I expect everything to trade higher, especially gold and silver. Whatever QE deal is announced, it will be viewed as inflationary, which in turn will bolster the euro and sink the dollar. Gold and Silver are the best barometers of risk and currency diversification in the world. Secondly, I know commodity related stocks will rip tits and the banks will offer insufferable short squeezes for the bears.
It will be a joyous occasion, as Wall Street celebrates the splendour of equities, while drinking copious amounts of spiked eggnog.
Over the weekend, there have been encouraging tidbits of news coming out of Europe, with regards to the creation of a Euro Stability Union and Federal Reserve bailout of Europe. Remember, it is the job of the ECB to promote price stability. If prices are dropping precipitously, as the olde continent drifts into deflation, the ECB must act to bolster prices. It is not a question of if they will do this, but when.
In other news, Black Friday sales came in well ahead of estimates at +6.6%. More impressive were online sales +26%, with amazing results coming out of AMZN. 2010 online sales were +9%. In a normal environment, this sort of news would serve as a jump off point for much, much higher retail stock prices.
I was up until 5:30 in the morning reading research regarding the European Union and possible collapse of the Euro. This is not something you should be laughing about over your stupid cocktail parties. Since when have the fucking Germans been a people who know what is right for the world? It’s in their DNA to be dicks and now they sit at the head of all tables. More importantly, a disorganized collapse of the euro is likely to result in terrifying carnage the world has never seen. Is it worth it?
I am reading about 50% reductions in GDP under a worst case scenario collapse, which is what we are heading for. Did you get that? 50 fucking percent.
What would happen if EU member states saw their GDP’s drop by 50%? Well, for one, most banks and corporations dependent on short term lending would fold. Most deposits would vanish into thin air and the entire continent of Asia would melt down, as they are Europe’s #1 trading partner aka the western world’s factory. Then the ripples would reverberate worldwide and we’d get the ax too. I know you Tea Party fuckheads do not believe this, as you “feel” failures must fail no matter the scenario. You are all sick, twisted, fuckers, deserving of famine.
To this day, you believe we would have been better off letting the entire western financial system collapse in 2008. You declared “it wasn’t such a big deal” and TARP was nothing more than “liberal mumbo-jumbo.” Well, soon enough, the Grandfather of all Tea Parties, the cocksucking Germans, will teach us all a lesson in economics 101, through their sheer stupidity.
At -50% GDP all big banks/insurance outfits are gone. At -50% GDP, corporate earnings will be negative on the S&P 500, allowing for valuations to drop into a sinkhole. Without a doubt, Dow 5,000 would be too expensive under such a scenario. After all, most of the Dow 30 components will file for bankruptcy protection. Let’s just say the FAZmobile will be the Rolls Royce of investment vehicles.
Under such a scenario, underfunded pensions would either collapse municipalities/corporations, which would result in broad insolvencies, or the mass reneging on commitments would take place. Choose your poison.
Oh, I hope you have money in the safe because all of your savings will be wiped out, until the FDIC is made solvent again by the Federal government. Over in Europe, there will be revolutions to overthrow the dicksuckers who caused this crisis. German hatred will soar to wwII levels and Europe will be fractured for decades. Unemployment will likely be in the 50-70% range, leading to pain on an unimaginable scale.
But of course we must “take the hits now” because, after all, we’re capitalist and that’s what capitalism is all about, no? Has it ever dawned on you that none of this horseshit was capitalism in the first place? So now you want to cure a socialism problem by capitalistic means? Good fucking luck with that.
An unmitigated disaster looms and awaits. I’ll see you on the bread line.
NOTE: Italy needs to go to the bond market for 30 billion in late January. Should we make it until then and a resolution to print euros has not been reached, that will most certainly be the date the world stops turning.
I purposely have ignored the market today. As a matter of fact, I just turned on the God damned computer. Much to my surprise, we are not down 1,000. But we will get there. Don’t you worry about going lower. The fucking Europeans irritate me to no end. If you are European and happen to be reading iBC, close this page immediately, for you are no longer welcomed around these parts.
I want you to appreciate the ABSURDITY of this tape. Forget about fundamentals for a moment and understand reality. Should that bitch, Merkel, get off her “NEIN NEIN NEIN” plan, this market is going to fucking roar by 1,000 point inside 1-2 days. All she needs to say is “we are considering issuance of eurobonds” and the crisis will end. More than that, recession concerns in Europe will abate, yields will plummet and life as we know it will be better.
But she’s not going to do that, is she? This monster of a woman is channeling Herman Cain, only in the wrong fucking language, and is only interested in DESTROYING THE FUCKING PLANET. That’s what Germans do, no?
The alternative is a global depression. If Germany wins this war, all of Europe will be flushed, the Euro will cease to exist and the Dow Jones will consolidate around the fucking 5,000 level. At that point, I will spend the majority of my time throwing darts at a Angela Merkel picture, over and over again until I am carted off to my local mental institution.
Realistically, I am going to throw the towel in shortly. Even though we are oversold and all of the laws of mathematics points towards a short term inflection point aka a rally for the ages, this is fucking horseshit and I want no part of it.
As America sashays in and out of shopping malls on this joyous “Black Friday”, “The Fly” spits on the ground in disdain and contempt for the asshats abroad.
Let the clowns and the asshats pine for the next great depression, so they could make a few euros on their FAZ positions. When you read the frantic, fucktarded manifestos of these lemmings understand they are not leaders, but pathetic, sorry followers, who conform to “group think” because they are weak. It has never been my belief we were in some stock market utopia, where community organizers blazed a path to glory through income redistribution. But I refuse to believe the central banks of the world will sit idle while their respective countries burn to the fucking ground. It. isn’t. going. to. happen.
These scenarios have played out numerous times over the past three years. Each and every time, like clockwork, the most ardent of bears overwhelm the comments section of this glorious blog. I spit on your person. I slap the life out of your face. It always ends with one big grande “I told ya so”, followed by me bowling on your heads with cannon balls.
There is no ambiguity about the situation we find ourselves in. There is no more time for talk and half measures. The deviants in Europe must conclude their civilizations or adhere to the untenable laws of survival. Without total and complete cooperation from all powers in the EU, the stock market and banking system as we know it will be nothing more than a memory. These slow rolling black swan events, purported by governments intentionally, are extraordinarily rare. As a matter of fact, I do not believe this has ever happened.
I take no qualms with those who want no part of this tape and have elected to go to cash. However, I harbor a great deal of disdain, and frankly, deep seated murderous rage towards the fucktards who attempt to “machine gun” me through half hazard declarations of war on this web domain. I will cut your heads off and put your skulls in my backyard to be used as cigar ashtrays.
“The Fly” does not back down from low level punks, who run around with heroin needles in their necks and leave snarky comments on the internets. It is a MISTAKE to fuck with me and I will let my presence be known, over and over again, until your livers are searing on my grill.
