Bond Yields Keep Soaring: Anyone Care, Anyone?

The 2yr yield is fucking retarded inverted vs the 10: 3.94% v 3.48% and no one cares.

“MUHHHHH WE ARE NOT IN RECESSION. THE NBER SAID THE ECONOMY IS FINE. MUHHHHHH?”

As an ardent bear, one who wishes to see the destruction of markets, this is what I have to deal with. Markets are barely down today and many sectors are up. This is the reward I get for holding down the bear Fort, down 40 NASDAQS?

Late late last night one of my dogs decided to vomit for the balance of the evening, so I was busy with my handy dandy Bissel machine just steaming things up. Having dogs are like having babies, except babies aren’t as disgusting and they one day grow up to be somewhat civilized and pay taxes.

I’m up 7bps, a quiet day. This is exactly how I like it.

Ethereum just had a BIG EVENT, so big the price collapsed and now all of the retards who dove in before the MUH EVENT — those fuckers are crucified to the wall.

NASDAQ FUTURES ARE DOWN 51 and we’re just getting started. Over the weekend VP Harris lectured Americans on how to fight the Putin tax hike vis a vie buying $100,000 electric cars. Someday there will be a wind that will sweep across these great lands and with it flying guillotines for the heads of all the people who fit into the contraption. It’ll be one giant COVID vaccination for the masses, the cure all and end all for all of our problems as a nation. You won’t need to worry about illegals in Martha’s Vineyard’s anymore — because the flying guillotines will keep those lawn mowers the fuck out of here.

I just got back from the beach. Mrs. Fly wanted to bring the fucking dogs for a swim, so we got in the car — drove 3 hrs to the beach — pranced around for 45 mins, ate dinner inside the car — then drove back another 3hrs.

And then you wonder why I want the markets to collapse.

Below is the table of returns for the NASDAQ over the past few weeks — absolutely chaotic. For younger traders out there, I promise you this is level 10 out of 10 difficulty and it’ll get easier.

We just went through a terrible squall and then a bounce up until the point of decapitation based upon the notion that inflation isn’t being contained. This fact of 8%+ inflation solidifies Fed policy to be hawkish until numbers improve. Part of the difficulty in shorting into the hole are those sharp oversold bounces. They happen out of nowhere, green candle after green candle, and usually lead to fantastical one day returns. But one day whimsical returns aside, The Fed has given us the blueprints. They are telling us they intend to hurt stocks/ the economy, in order to win the battle against inflation. In other words, short all bounces. The longer those bounces continue the more you should short. The idea that the market will trade up in the midst of 75bps hikes is IMPOSSIBLE.

Exorcize the bullishness out of your body and behold the wrath of the bear. We are just getting started.

It was supposed to collapse, so it ramped. Investors clamored to buy cheap and “undervalued” high growth semiconductor names ahead of the weekend, in order to best position for the Monday cash open. Whilst there might’ve been trepidation early going with FDX missing and dropping the most since the CRASH of 1987, by late afternoon it was nothing more than a distant and unimportant memory, as traders put cash to work in some of America’s finest growth names available.

Bears got STEAMED into the close, pressed nicely, and now have to wonder about buy programs at 4am on Sunday.

Look at it. Aren’t you all jelly for not being long SOXL into the bell? Shares of INTC and NVDA are back in vogue and as sure as I’m sitting here there will be a FIERCE crypto rally this weekend, setting up for a wonderful lift off on Monday.

As for me, truly a week designed in hell and then delivered straight into my brain. I shed 5% and consider myself to be HALF retarded, HALF human. I will let you know when my advice is worth your time.

I closed with SQQQ, CRK, ENPH, and FANG — again half retarded, half human.

Ciao.

Is there any doubt?

All Mondays YTD, Stocklabs

I stand before you a vanquished man, both of the physical and mental. Not only has my body succumbed to the pangs of COVID, but it scrambled my brains that caused me to shed 5% for the week. I see only darkness now and cannot think of a scenario where I might find a salient to surge upwards again. Because of this, I am 95% cash.

It would BEHOOVE me to not warn you of the hard times to come. Now with FDX firmly in the bear’d camp, there is little hope for humanity save a Federal Reserve spazzing out — halting of Fed hikes. That will never happen — because Powell is Volker now — and he is destined to be a cult hero.

Would it surprise me to see markets jimmy higher into the close and again on Monday in a “fuck you pattern” for the ages? No. We have seen this back and forth all year and I’d venture to argue traders have made more on the upside buying oversold dips than shorting into the hole. For the most part, traders have been immune to this bear market, since the oversold dips have provided bounces with very good consistency. All one has to do is wait for a bad two or three days, get long, and wait. Stocks like SHOP, RBLX and ROKU will provide quick 10% gains and then all you need to do is sell and wait for another dip.

This has been a very FORGIVING bear market and it has been quite mild in comparison to say 2002 and 2008. I barely know anyone who has blown up this year, just complainers bitching about 10-30% losses. If you’ve been long only and find yourselves down between 10-30% — that’s fairly benign is it not? All you have to do is keep adding to your accounts into the dips and wait for the turn — which I am told will eventually come.

But then you have the PERMANENT BEARS who say this bear market is going to be worse than 2008 — because the leverage is so much greater. It’s hard to reconcile it all and it’s especially hard to believe in the most grim forecasts — mainly because the worst case scenario rarely plays out.

I’m just about fully recovered from COVID-19. It wasn’t too bad, aside from the fact that my taste buds have been converted into dirt and can only taste soy sauce. There’s no way this ailment was made in a China, given the Chinese affinity for all things soy. Why create something that would ruin your favorite condiment? I’ve concluded, this disease was simply an accident of when a man eats live bat soup and doesn’t wash his hands after picking up the bat and nibbling on its face for the delicacy.

I mowed into today with a full book of longs and I sold them all for a little SQQQ. This is nothing more than spiteful revenge trading. We both know it’s too late for do overs. Stocks are doing just about as expected following the FDX debacle. Retail is somewhat of an upside surprise and gold is always an enigma.

After two weeks of being laid out, tired more than anything, I managed to trade wonderfully. I completely lost all of my gains for September and so much more. I had been +4% and now I’m -4%. I’m at the limit of where I’ll accept losses and then I’ll force some slowing down, which is ironic since I had been trading slow anyway. With todays thump, I really got 2 or 3 days of losses all in one. Truly efficient.

One should expect a closing of the lows. I don’t see why not. Then again, you never know on a Friday, all sorts of option fags running around taking gambles.

FedEx sees Q2 EPS $2.65 or greater, consensus $5.48.

What the fuck — is this real life?

I’ll be taking some more losses tomorrow. This is the type of report that marks a change in the cycle, the report we reflect back upon and say “you were warned.”

With such a shortfall, all retail numbers must be at risk. Fed ex is the conduit between so many businesses. I can only marvel at this miss now, as I am only long in such an ironic twist.

Shares of FDX have blown up, -15% in the AHs.

But it still doesn’t matter. Todays losses are tomorrow’s gains. We had a substantial breakdown in natty and oil today and all of the stars are aligned for a magnificent rally. We aren’t oversold in Stocklabs yet, but soon.

I trebled up on TNA and may have to treble up again tomorrow. Maybe I have COVID brains and it’s causing me to act in peculiar ways. Either way, I’m long as fuck with just 20% cash.

Why?

I’m tired of playing games. I’ve been a trading crash dummy every single day for as long as I could remember. I had two options in front of me:

Go to cash and miss out.

Go all in and don’t miss out.

Right now I’m enjoying the losses; they’re rather ribald. I chose a stupid time to be long on purpose. The obvious move here is lower. A break lower will line up the June lows. However incredulous it might seem, I’ll take the other side of that trade with my COVID brains.

I’m still sick, believe it or not. I told you when I get sick I’m a giant pussy. At any rate, I’ve traded like shit recently and I don’t want to blame COVID. I’ve been flippe flopping all around, indecorously attempting to be extra cute with the market.

“OMG LOOK AT WHAT A GENIUS I AM. LOOK AT ME AND PAY ATTENTION TO MEEEEE.”

I really don’t give a shit. To show you how much I don’t give a shit, I’m long only now. Well not long only forever, but at least today. I’m also not hedging for as long as I live. I’ve hedged enough for 100 lifetimes of being a total pussy. Nowadays I just double down on everything, eat a plate of only soy sauce, and call it a day.

I’m 75% long, 10% of which is TNA, not giving a fuck into the afternoon delight.

I’m hungry but what difference does it make? I don’t have taste buds anymore and the only things that tastes like anything are sweet fat fuck foods. Mrs Fly says she’s been making me smoothies the past few days “super healthy” aka disgusting and I haven’t noticed a thing. Anything salty tastes completely horrible, like a super salty plate of soy sauce. Without taste buds, you’d be surprised how fast hunger or appetite dissipates. If you want fat fucks to get in line, just take away their taste buds.

Markets were indicating lower and immediately shot higher. This is a daily occurrence. We’ll probably get a head fake lower mid afternoon and I might even tweet “collapse”. But as sure as I’m sitting here, markets will be rigged higher.

Is that upsetting? I’m unsure. But one thing I am sure about is ending my hedging adventures. From now on, I’ll either be short or long, nothing in between. Far too often have I been caught stupid because of an outlier or because I missed an exit by 15 seconds. I’ve played it pretty conservative for months now and I have just about had it.