Gap n Fade or Go?

Mornings are always tricky. It’s where you can grab big moves. Are those early red candles tricks that should go bought or are those green candles gifts to be faded?

I really don’t give a shit and stick to a game plan: sell the fucking mornings.

I’m 95% cash, +75bps. I only hold BTU now out of pure sentimentality, pining for the days when coal was clean and the miners in W Virginia ruled America.

I’ll probably add a few positions soon and wait to see if the gains stick.

Good evening gents.

In retaliation for getting routed out from Kharkiv oblast, the Russians attacked critical infrastructure and plunged many parts of Ukraine into darkness. This might seem spiteful and petty, but from what I hear there is a tactical reason for this.

It seems the Russian airforce is unable to interdict troop movements on the ground and do not possess the technology to detect large columns of metal objects on the ground. Blame the Slavic brain for these shortcomings. It’s also believed that the real Ukrainian offensive is going to happen in the direction of  Mariupol and the UKR military is using rail to transport equipment. Ergo, taking out the power in Ukraine is an effort by the Russians to buy time to build up fortifications.

The perception on the ground now is as follows.

Russia is no match for the GLOBOHOMO.

Ukraine meat muppets are excellent warriors and will make a find addition to NATO once Russia is defeated.

A Russian defeat means Putin in trouble and this is bearish for energy prices.

Europe will make it.

NASDAQ FUTS are +56 and the western liberals are dancing in their burlap shoes at the sight of dead Russian soliders.

Unfortunately the people charged with holding the front lines for Russia are retards and melted away at the first sight of 15,000 men. The Ukrainian NATO-FAG forces are rummaging throughout the Russian countryside now — exchanging time for space and having a grande time of it posting their terrific results on Tik Tok. The “NAFO” brigades on Twitter are most elated and have their eyes set on Crimea next, maybe even Belgorod. Meanwhile Putin is busy opening a new martial arts studio in Moscow and the general command offered little excuse for their rout — other than to suggest they’re merely shifting forces around.

In actuality, the Russian rout spells disaster for any citizen who cooperated with them under occupied Russian control. Those people are now racing to leave before the Ukrainians get a hold of them and tape them to a pole for 72 hrs.

The Ukrainian offensive was well known for months in the making and yet Russia took zero steps to prevent this sort of egregious loss of space. I suppose we could give credit to NATO planners for a brilliant stratagem, just as much as we can malign the Russians for not knowing how to hold down clay.

Thus far, there has been little loss of life on the Russian side, although they have left equipment behind. In what seemed impossible just a week ago is now happening and the momentum has shifted to the gallant NATO brigades out of Kiev — steaming every so fastidiously towards their next destination.

I’m still afflicted with the COVID-19, so my analysis might be somewhat obtuse or useless. But, given the situation on the ground — you should expect markets to ROAR higher and oil/gas to drop. Markets are crazy enough to start pricing in the possibility of Putin being taken out in Russia. I only say this because his most ardent sycophants are now BESIDES themselves with grief and anguish — how a tiny backwater country and former vassal of Russia is seemingly taking Mother Russia to the woodshed and having his way with her. These people have always said the plan to invade Ukraine with so few men was always a retarded one and permitting Kiev to host world leaders whenever it wanted and transfer of weapons without obstacle was a recipe for defeat.

Hopefully this dreadful war can soon come to an end and Zelensky can tackle the real problems facing Kiev: legalizing gay marriage.

It’s a miracle I ended up the week, considering I have the COVID brain. I was officially diagnosed with the “RONA” this evening. I was one of the last people in America to not have gotten it before. Naturally I got it the minute I visited and cavorted about the filthy and disgusting city of Boston, sashaying through its ridiculously absurd subway cars that look like busses and being inside packed locales with people most likely sharing their coronavirus with me.

I will have you know, I don’t usually fair well during the flu and I’m a bit of a child when it comes to dealing with being sick, unlike Mrs Fly who just bears and grits through it because why the hell not.

I suspect my symptoms will deteriorate into tomorrow, until the horse paste kicks in and then I can get back on the road of WINSHIP. Trading does seem like a very distant priority of mine now, especially when afflicted with a scourge that has seemingly killed millions and the main cause of a global lockdown and so much more.

I just had some pizza and it tasted disgusting. As a matter of fact, everything I’ve had today tasted rancid and the Gatorade my wife gave me also tastes abhorrent. I do prefer water.

My temperature peaked at 101.7 so far, and immediately went down after a few aspirins. I’m now quarantined in my house, with only Mrs Fly present. She is apparently hyper-paranoid about catching COVID again is likely very annoyed at me for having gone out there and caught it.

I will keep your appraised of my condition as the virus progresses.

I gave up on the whims of destruction and hold a long only book into Monday. This decision was made as I sweat cold here in a haze surrounded by digital assholes who happen to be trading inside The Pelican Room. There is little I can do about a Frankenstonian culture I myself created and now just have to deal with the monster I made, as it turns on me — it’s creatooor.

I lost money in an otherwise layup of a session; but my quant made coin.

There was an OS signal on IWM just before the rally, which now with the benefit of hindsight was prescient.

As for Monday, my position is bullish; but my heart is still hoping for a total annihilation. I only closed out my hedges because they seemed wasteful, given the broad based rally and reasoning for the rally. I am somewhat convinced the war in the Ukraine is guiding stocks and when it goes in favor of NATO — stocks jump and vice versa. I will warn those who are permenently bullish to remember the Fed is going to hike your fucking faces off into the bankruptcy court, should stocks and commodities continue to go up. This is NOT what the Fed wants. The Fed explicitly stated “pain” and a slowing down of the economy, which by the way doesn’t include rapidly rising equity and commodity prices.

Then again, the character of this market has been misdirection over and over again. Just when it looked like the market was finished, trading down 7 days in a row, we got a terrific bounce. Now that we’ve bounced, recency bias suggests it’s straight up from here. All facets of the market are up, based upon perhaps the Ukrainian offensive that appears to be betting results for NATOFAGS. If this is what we’re buying stocks on, let me remind you that every reflation in markets stokes inflationary pressures and forces the Fed to hike more.

None of this matters on a day by day time scale, since most people these days, or at least the fuckers who read me, are only concerned with tomorrow’s trade. Come Monday, I suspect the market might continue higher; but I also would’ve be surprised to see it down 300 NASDAQs. Would you?

If I had no risk aversion I might be all in here. But it just seems to me a foolhardy endeavor, arrogant even, to suggest right now based upon my feeeeelings, markets will bottom for good.

I’m presently long an array of stock, leaning towards commodities, hedged with 15% in SQQQ and SOXS.

After a healthy dose of ivermectin and gallons of water, and forced sleep, I’m feeeeeeling better today. Even though I tested negative for COVID, one cannot trust those tests and one must assume any sickness is another variation of the lab made coronavirus. As such, taking ivermectin and following the FLCC protocol provides zero downside and at a minimum it offers a psychological advantage towards the road to recovery.

I woke up nearly every hour since 7am but forced myself to sleep and thus far, I feel much better.

I had a bunch of up stocks that I sold in the morning and now only hold 15% weighted SQQQ and SOXS; but those “ideas” weren’t well thought out — but instead default positions after I stripped the portfolio of longs.

I’ll need another hour or so and then I’ll fire off some trades for end of session positioning.

I’m not quite right, especially for the fact that eating causes me almost to faint and feel horrible. Nevertheless, I managed to position for tomorrow, again a combination of longs and shorts. Since we are in a bullish mode, I have very little desire to play it. I will wait until markets break lower again to have a more riskfull stratagem.

I closed up 4bps with no trades until the final 15mins.

My fever broke this morning after I ate a banana. I had been hungry but then immediately felt nauseas and cold. Congrats to me as I embark on the path of recovery. I got a solid 11 hrs sleep and now feel only a little terrible. My at home COVID test was negative — but who knows if those things actually work.

I haven’t been trading because, well, I had been asleep.

I am awake now and see markets are weak, but there is strength in semis and banks and oils. For a down day, this looks somewhat benign.

My base case remains: total destruction of equity markets in the month of September.

Last night I thought it was a good idea to do leg exercises at the gym and then use 3 or 4 martinis as my post workout recovery beverage. Needless to say, the carpenters are fucking pounding away inside my house whilst I’m bedraggled with a most unfortunate migraine, leg cramps, and perhaps COVID-19. After all, I’m not vaccinated and I generally rummage throughout life touching things and getting in people’s faces. Plus I just got back from Boston, so there is a good chance I’m doomed.

I traded in between naps, woken up by my ADT chime and two dogs barking at the carpenter who is pounding his hammers into my walls.

I closed at my session highs, +36bps, which is a far cry from those most studiously allocated amidst a carnivale blend of UVXY, TQQQ, SHOP and OKE. Given my disposition and general disdain for markets, I more or less took the day off and head into tomorrow sparsely invested, content with the ribald gains already achieved year to date.