HAPPY LAST ST. PATRICK’S DAY

SIRS —

In between sips of beer and cooking two corned beefs, I clawed out from a -150bps hole to end only -56bps. The reason for this is simple: I am a highly efficient, highly competent, ultra professional manager of money. There is never a trading day that I cannot pull rabbits out from hats and amaze others with astounding feats of magic.

For the week, I made 2%.

As of the banks.

WORST PERFORMING BANK STOCKS FOR THE WEEK$FRC -75%$PACW -53%$WAL -50%$FFWM -43%$CUBI -33%$BKU -32%$MCB -31%$CMA -30%$FHN -29%$HPP -29%$KEY -29%$CS -29%$ZION -29%$UMBF -27%

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 17, 2023

They’re gonna bail them all out. But until they do, many more will go under and pain will be felt by equity holders.

Into the weekend, I am hedged with UVIX, TZA and I own a 10% position in BITO — because BTC has been defensive.

It’s nearly impossible for me to justify heading into the weekends without some shorts. There are too many red flags out there now to just sit idle and hope dip buyers show up Monday.

As usual, I’ll see you in Stocklabs on Monday for another weekly allocation into the quant.

To my Irish brethren: enjoy the day and drink merrily and eat fatly — for this is likely to be the last St. Paddy’s Day you’ll enjoy prior to the ultimate and final collapse of Western Finance.

Many people were disappointed with BTC during the inflation driven market the past year, as the asset proved to be nothing more than a risk asset. It did not display a defensive trait.

However, as we see the banks flop out and systemic risk cause people to run on their banks — it’s very obvious that BTC and gold are the biggest winners.

BTC is up 8% the past month whilst gold is up 6%.

As a matter of fact, the action was so impressive I’m thinking about creating a new buying program for it as part of an asset allocation model. There is no denying that people are more familiar with BTC now than any FX instrument. In the event of a real dollar crisis, BTC would fucking moon shot and explode to triple figures. There is a base case to buy it now, as a defensive measure against systemic bank failure.

Breadth in the financials is 85% today, based off whims of ideas from Bill Ackman’s twitter feed, essentially.

Consider Bill the ambassador from Wall Street to DC. Whatever he wants — he will get.

Our gov’t’s failure to provide a temporary guarantee on all deposits is causing an unnecessary banking crisis which could have a profoundly negative effect on the economy. Confidence is destroyed quickly and can take years and sometimes decades to be restored.

Three dominoes… https://t.co/n9rsHhndbG

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 16, 2023

The whim is TOTAL BAILOUT. Overseas people are optimistic that CS will be backstopped/bailed out. However, UBS just told Swiss regulators to fuck off and they weren’t at all interested in merging with the toxic wasteland that is CS.

Be smart. Don’t go all in short like a moron into an 85% breadth day on the cusp of more bailouts. Oh you think you’re gonna win? How has that worked out for you so far, Mr. Bear? They shut the whole economy down in 2020 and marked ripped higher because of it.

I am 100% long quality stocks selected by the Stocklabs quant. My sole margined positions are TMV and FAZ. I am now 14% weighted FAZ and will add more — perhaps tomorrow. Having a hedge makes me feeeeeel safe in these existential times of grave uncertainty.

I am +1.7% with 45 mins to go, cooly listening to Stan Getz in my library — surrounded by leather-bound books and Chesterfield couches.

I did warn you of this eventuality. We had a chance to kill western finance and the bears could not muster enough buying power to do it. Now we have to deal with un-ending bailouts followed by psychopathic applauds by the peanut gallery of circus personnel who frequent CNBC with their PERMANENT BULLISH discourse.

As instructed, I closed out my UVIX position at the open for a 4% gain and then I placed a 10% FAZ hedge and walked away. I am presently +1.33% — knifed down in $FAZ for a solid 7% — so I bought more. I will maintain a 10% FAZ position for the short term.

Overall, I am very bullish, as it pertains to my positioning. But in my heart and inside of my soul, I want to see a banking collapse.

You don’t really give a fuck about what I did today — only what I think will happen tomorrow. So I’ll get all of the selfish shit out of the way first. I was +96bps and I covered my massive bank and semi shorts and opened JUST IN CASE a 12% long in UVIX, along with some additional longs. I am net long here with only the VIX for dramatic effect.

We were supposed to dive down and bury ourselves alive — but we didn’t. Lots of regionals, like ZION and LOB, reversed and went higher. Charles Fucking Schwab was pinned to highs all day. I know and I get it — it’s annoying.

But this is what is likely to occur.

The cunts in power will weasel out of this for a short while. They’ll do some joint ECB-FED plan to paper over the banks, offer unlimited this and that. All of that will make us feeeeel real good and markets will climb. In a few months the economy will prove to be NOT AS RESILIENT and we might crescendo lower again.

If forced to make a call, I’d say as of right now — the globohomo won. Today was the day we had to press their faces into the griddle. Now it’s our faces being panini’d and if we’re not careful we might become sandwiches for some faggot bulls.

Look, all I am saying is give yourselves a break — you’ve earned it. Take a few months off from trading. Go to Europe like me and see the continent before it’s completely destroyed by Belarus. I will be here trading and will continue to trade, even from beyond the grave. It was a very sad and somber day for the bears. All we want is for GLOBAL COLLAPSE AMIDST COLOSSAL SIZED LOSSES — GRAVE REVOLTS — AND PEOPLE SKINNED ALIVE AT THE GIBBET.

It’s entirely possible that it might be I skinned alive by some shithead tranny in a NY Yankees dress. I am aware of the peril I place myself in and to be honest — I look forward to the occasion!

Good Sirs —

You thought you escaped the war trade and then the regional banking run. You celebrated with memes — after you had shilled for bailouts. You posited bailouts were bad prior to it effecting you. The moment if effected you — you started to suck government dick.

Let me describe my bearishness to you.

I am keeping my money in AT RISK banks because I want to lose it all. I want the banks to seize up and fail — the whole kit and caboodle plummet into the fiery oceans taking me with it. I do not endeavor to survive the great fires. Oh no, that would be cowardice. I’d like to perish in the fires alongside you — but only with an expression of utter happiness on my face as if Santa Claus just left me a tricycle for Xmas.

We went from inflation to DEBILITATING DEFLATION in an instant and let me tell you — DEFLATION IS WORSE.

Dollar shortages and PLUNGING commodity prices demands sharply lower stock prices. Whilst you might believe you will make it — you will not. A great tragedy is upon you and there isn’t enough money to bail out all the banks in addition to propping up the bastardized state of Ukraine.

As for me, I am +1.2% today and should be up a great deal more. However, since December I’ve forced myself into a 100% long book via the Stocklabs quant, so all of my hedging is what’s making me green now.

I am 20% FAZ, 20% SOXS and I might just leave it there — more than content with my pittance of a gain whilst getting to enjoy the plummeting of stocks and all of the other things which make up Pax Americana.

Shares of CS are down more than 25% this morning on basic fundamental math which says the company is at risk of default. The 5yr CDS are at RECOURD highs; but more importantly, the 6mo CDS are at 1500 — nearly a 1000bps inversion over the 5yr. In other words, it’s over.

Shares of nearly all European banks are HAMMERED to bits and pieces, whilst at the same time — Le Fly reigns supreme +210bps thanks to a very large overnight UVIX position.

Our regionals are getting SMASHED again with PACW and FRC down 15-18%. I’d like to offer you even worse news if I can — but that’s all I got for now.

Do not underestimate the asshole dip buyers. You saw those fucking retards out there on Twitter yesterday — jerking off to shares of FRC. Those animals are still on the loose.

As for me, I closed out UVIX and opened a small 10% position in FAZ — just for fun. Should we gander into another credit crisis, I’d be very sad if I did not profit from it in some sort of fashion.

My playbook is as follows:

Avoid morning nonsense. Re-enter heavily SHORT into the afternoon and hope for the very worst this evening.

I was hopeful heading into today we’d really see a banking collapse. Instead, I was offered a sword into my stomach via VIX collapse. I had a big UVIX position. I closed it out and then forayed into FAZ and made some coin there, as the banks COLLAPSED late in the session — reversing massive gains.

Into the last hour of trade I thought it’d be a swell idea to foray back into UVIX — for revenge and all. It started off ok and then I kept adding to it and adding to it and then in the last 15 mins news hit that the DEMONCRATS were offering a bill to REPEAL bank deregulation. Sounds like a double negative — but the CATAMITES in the market today took that fucking news and bet their grandmother’s estate on it and ramped it into my fucking face — causing me great pain and anguish.

In a 100% long book, I closed down 1.53% for the session — all thanks to UVIX. In total, I lost about $40k in UVIX today, meaning that without it I’d be up maybe 4%. Who the fuck cares? I am not in this for a day, “this” being whatever mission in the market I seem to be on.

Often times during times like this — CUNTS inside Stocklabs will level charges at me — proclaiming I be cold and “off” with my timing. Well, no man is perfect and I certainly have the bald head to prove it. NEVERTHELESS, I am a person with a vindictive soul — driven by both greed and an insatiable desire for revenge. I am exacting revenge at all times, on people who aren’t even aware of my existence. Without an enemy to fix my gaze upon, I am rudderless.

So keep betting against me. See where it gets you.

The market action was bullish. I regret to inform you of that. But the pin action in the banks was dreadful. We (the royal sense of course) are eagerly awaiting a renewed collapse — at which point I can validate my poor timing in UVIX as some sort of “plan” or scheme.

It seems the GREAT BIG TITTED bank rally is melting the fuck down.

FRC caught a credit downgrade and the entire mood had shifted. Plus, Russia shot down an American drone over the Black Sea. I suppose things aren’t always what they seem.

I ended up closing out the UVIX position — but taking on a great big dicked FAZ position — now 40% of assets. I did so because, not so deep down, I really hate the banks and it would be one of the many highlights of my life to participate in the end of western finance as we know it.

I know what you’re thinking and it’s stupid.

“But Fly, you enjoy all of the comforts of western finance — you and your wine cellar (garage) and cigars and all of that other shit you buy for comfort.”

All true. But I am willing to sacrifice all of my Burgundy wines for just 1 got damned legit meltdown. And not some bullshit meltdown that is met with faggots on TV bailing out eachother and beating off to SPX futures rising as their schemes work their magic.

No, I am only interested in irretrievable loss — NON REVERSIBLE — the sort of drawdown that makes people shit their pantaloons.

Look, I am not an evil person. I want people to be happy and explore all of their sexual identities too. But I want it to end more and the visceral feeeeeeeling of cataclysm is quite the thing. NEVERTHELESS, I will once again do the responsible thing and follow the money, like all money rats do and go along for the ride once they win again and then pretend to love it all as we hit 52 weeks highs amidst pomp and glory and Pax Americana.

Unfortunately, I am DOWN 29bps today, even though I have a full long book. Let me explain the sequence of events that led me here.

It all has to do with ANTIFA FLY and me sleeping in. Suffice to say, he missed a plane — I had to run around at 4am to get him on a new one — I fell asleep without an alarm — and BAM next thing you know the market is ripping higher and I have 15% of my book in a UVIX hedge that is down 19%.

These things happen and I sure all of you will forgive ANTIFA Fly in time.

What’s important to know is I am here now. My health is most excellent and my mood very good.

As I write my fortunes increase, now down just 9bps. Hell, if I do one or two brilliant trades today, maybe I too will escape with more money today than yesterday.

Ladies and gentlemen — it appears the greatest banking crisis of our lifetimes has ended. The regionals have soared. The govt wins again. The CPI came in good — just like Joe Biden said it would last week. And now, all we have to worry about are deposits at banks that lose money every time the US 10yr increases in yield — which by the way is +11bps today. But that’s not important.

On the issue of UVIX — had it not been for my inadvertent “sleeping in” — I would have sold it at the open. Anyone who knows me knows I’d do it. I swear on a stack of bibles. But since I didn’t and the damage has been done, I might just buy more to average down. OR, maybe I’ll just sell it and be done with it.