NOW EVERYONE IS BULLISH

Last week it seemed most traders were on the precipice of suicide. Today, following two days of rally, the smugness has kicked in and we are once again heading back to record highs.

REMINDER:

The NASDAQ RETURNS

-30% YTD
-0.26% 3 mo
-4.7% 1 mo

The reality of this market is — the Fed is tight. More than that, the Fed is tethered to inflation. Each time we get market rallies — at the forefront of them are commodities which stokes inflation. The only way around this is to see unemployment rise and people fucked in the streets poor.

The market will always look one way in under the lens of short term. If we are trying to figure out a more longer term picture then it’s still very bearish.

Because of this and because my longer term view is still bearish, I shall not, at any time, be aggressive to the upside. In the few times I have, I have also regretted it. Missing out on rallies is part and parcel of making market calls and it’s ok to miss out, providing you don’t deepen the miss with a chase, only to see it fall again.

Into tomorrow, no idea — but the trend is now up. In the 4 times markets had corrected hard in September, two of them led to 15% rallies in October. It looks like this October is heading into that direction, which would demand a long bias. My sense is to have a long bias into tomorrow, but not at the extent where a down 150 NASDAQ open might APE RAPE me if I’m wrong.