A LAYUP BET

I hope you all had a nice pretend holiday and rested well, courtesy of the Federal Govt. Markets opened up angry and have been attempting to fool all morning. Alas, I only kept my BTC and IEP positions following my usual morning liquidations. Unfortunately, Carl is a little flaccid this morning and caused me to drawdown. Nothing too severe, off by 29bps.

I do have what I consider to be a lay up bet. The problem for me, if being honest, I will likely not profit too much from it because it requires patience and I am mostly day trading. The bet is TMF — ultra long long bonds.

The premise is as follows:

The inflation narrative is dead and will soon be replaced with FOMC easing. By the time we get to that, rates would have already crumbled to pieces. In the event of an economic downturn or market scare, the bias for rates is now LOWER. If there was a war or perhaps the high rates finally affected people other than the working class –both TLT and TMF will take off. If you just wanted to play the alpha you could buy some zero coupon bonds, like ZROZ, and wait.

This trade requires waiting. There are people out there, very evil people, who believe this entire circus is going to end one day and all that will be left are govt bonds.

Bottom Line: All western nations are heavily indebted and cannot afford to carry the interest on their burdens. The natural direction for rates is lower — not because western governments are responsible and deserve low rates — but because it’s rigged. If, for example, rates reflected the true risk of the underlying governments, all 100% debt to GDP players would have to endure the highest of rates until they got their shit together. But we do not live in a world with free markets. Markets are nationalized and the people who control the guns also control the rates, so figure it out.

So what did you get for Dad’s day? Maybe a grilling apparatus or bottle of beer and bourbon? Maybe you got a new pair of jeans or a bottle of cologne. Perhaps tonight you’ll head out to a restaurant for steaks and wine — big fat key lime pie cheesecake fat fuck dessert washed down with some cognac?

Maybe you’re gonna play some golf with other Dads and laugh heartily in between playing terribly?

Today is your day Dads — a day often discarded as trash by BIG MOTHERS DAY lobby. Men, as you know, hold families together and prevent their kids from cutting their dicks off and running around cities with rainbow dresses and dying their hair purple — stealing from Nike stores. Unfortunately, many men are too perverted to remain stoic in a single household and run about visiting different ladies of ill repute. In this day and age, with the toxic culture of degeneracy, strong fathers are at a premium and necessary counter-balance to progressive leaning women and their hare-brained ideas.

DO NOT GIVE INTO THE GLOBOHOMO and remain in your homes to tell your kids the truth and never waiver no matter the emotional toil.

OFF TO GRILL SOME MEATS!

I closed at the absolute highs for the session +113bps, gained more than 4% for the week — +nearly 46% for 2023. Instead of doing this with other people’s money that could pour upon my person extravagant riches, I do it for an audience of plebs who get confused quickly and blow themselves up inside a few weeks of trading.

Back in 2017 I was very upset, very angry — and felt with all of my feeeeeeeeelings that I no longer wanted to manage money professionally. I was so upset! My moron friends went on to enjoy the greatest bull market ever known, bask in the sun of unlimited money hacks — all the while I sought emotional comfort via blogging and chatting about my trades, anonymously, for an audience of rank amateurs.

This is my legacy and I am sticking with it!

For all of my black readers out there — Happy Juneteenth. I have no fucking idea what the holiday is and won’t bother to learn about it. I am pretty sure most of you don’t really know too much about it either. Nevertheless, enjoy the holiday and be sure to nibble on some corned cobbs.

To my white readers, Happy Father’s Day. Hopefully your terrible wives will get you a card and maybe offer you a new wrench for your fucking tool box. I wanted to head over to symphony and enjoy the music of the Gods but was met with a rebuff — since it’s all “rather boring” and one might “fall asleep” listening to such mundane music.

Alas — we’re all trying to achieve a semblance of equanimity just prior to dropping dead. I do hope before I collapse and drop dead, I could amass a great fortune and then play games with said fortune in the after-life. We all have our idiosyncrasies — and all are fine providing they do not hurt or annoy anyone else.

DO NO HARM!

For the weekend, since it is Father’s Day, I might smoke a cigar or perhaps an Estate Pipe. I bought some new tobacco and it burns rather fine. As for cocked tails, Mrs Fly bought me a book of recipes as an early gift; but I already know how to make just about anything — having gone though the phase of being a MASTER MIXOLOGIST. I’ve found, after tasting all of the different flavors, just about nothing beats a nice clean martini.

Cheers.

I bought some stocks and one 10% hedge. I am permanently bearish but like to remind myself that I really do not know what the hell is going on and that my true strength is adapting to new paradigms. To catch a top is like catching a fly with chopped sticks — not really possible. The biggest detriment to a trader is having caught a top once before — because now that fucker is going to think it was actually skill and not luck — due to ego.

My ego is secure in the fact that I can and will manifest myself higher, no matter the market, no matter my personal issues. It is a life long journey for me and when I ends, I can only hope that I have amassed enough money to buy a drone for the Army of Ukraine. Perhaps Zelensky’s grandson will use to to destroy the Kremlin or kill Russians on the street shopping for cabbage.

I am up 75bps and interested in buying stocks with strong technicals, near session highs, and exhibiting signs of going higher.

A little risk aversion is creeping into this tape. I did my usual thing, closed out all of my positions at the open, including SOXS — which I carried as a hedge. I gained 0.56% so far.

The EV sector is on fire — finally — after TSLA stock has risen 100% in the past month and change. Piece of shit stocks like RIDE and NKLA are ripping. As a matter of fact, many micro cappers are ripping, which is normal in a bull market. The knee jerk reaction you might have is to fade this market because trash is being bought. On the surface, I agree with you. But we can still run higher before we pull back, so you’re better off waiting for a real reversal rather than anticipating it.

I’m all cash aside from my BTC position. I find comfort in being in cash with some morning gains. When I get greedy again, which could be minutes from now, I’ll dive back in.

Back in 2000, I was a young punk stock broker in NYC making fucking bank — fully anointed in liberal shit-think — and also a true believer in the internet and “new economy.” I made fun of the older men in the boardroom who warned me of impending doom and instead told them to “fuck their own faces” whenever I felt like it. I did what I wanted, when I wanted to do it, and no one could stop me. I showed up to work at 11am, in spite of my manager warning me — because I could.

Life was grandiose and the peak of that grandeur happened in March of 2000. During that time, I can vividly recall getting drunk during lunch and drunk again after work — pitching client drunk and having them send millions to a drunkard and thinking it was funny. It was funny — up until the point it ended. I didn’t believe it was over until nothing was left. I wrote two books about it.

Fast forward, 2020-2021 was even worse than the 2000 bubble. We took a breather to inject the planet with poison and then get primed for world war — and now we’re at it again.

So you know, in Stocklabs we measure the technicals of all stocks going back to 1970. We have fancy ways to determine things. Right now, the QQQ is as overbought as late Feb 2000 — registering the 3rd highest score on record.

The type of run we are in squares up just fine with the go-go days when I felt, as a young man, nothing would ever stop it. It’s worth noting, the NASDAQ topped on March 10th 2000 — not late February — which is why I closed the session mostly long with just a 10% hedge in SOXS. I am now +44% for the year.

You are just one man with limited resources. You cannot stand in front of a runaway locomotive and expect it to crash into you and become destroyed. You are a fool if you believe your feelings mean anything at all. The ideas floating about inside of your head are nothing more than a confluence of childhood memories imprinted unto you which created a bias of how the world should be. Perhaps you struggled and saw others doing well and now feel the world would be better off burning. But the person who grew up with fancy pants and shoes never bothered looking at you and never felt an iota of jealously towards anyone else — but instead focused on himself and improving his life.

See how perspective works?

If you are aware of your mental illness, then you can mitigate its risks.

Observe the market. See it reaching towards new highs. Accept this reality. Invest accordingly.

I closed out my shorts at the open, made some coin. Predictably the market went vertical from the open, solidifying my idea that shorts should be closed at every open until that trend changes.

The consensus on Wall Street is we are in a bull market. Even though I am a PERMANENT BEAR, it’s important to conform in order to survive and thrive. As such, I’m long IEP, TLT and ERX now.

I’d love to see mortgage rates go to 15% again. The Fed is likely to hike and since the economy is so strong, one could surmise rates will climb. HOWEVER, that’s all nonsense, since we have over $32T in debt and the world hates our guts. There isn’t a chance in hell rates will be higher today than next year. TLT is a long term hold, but only a trade for me.

Rates will eventually spiral lower, all the way down to 0%.

Up 50bps early going.

I was distracted today by a late day gym effort and numerous issues in my garden. I seem to can’t keep trees alive in my fucking yard and have gone though 3 Crepe Myrtles in 1 year. The one that was just planted last week is dying, leaves wilted, and was dying from the second that fucker planted it. The truth is, the landscaper probably killed it before he planted it in my yard — a regular serial tree killer that guy is.

I lost 79 basis point in listless uninspired trading. I clung onto my SOXS 10% hedge for too long because NVDA is in bubble mode at 40x sales. This position is likely to lose me even more at the open. But I really want to be around when the SOX drops by 30%.

Can I turned it around tomorrow and propel myself back to recourd highs?

I absolutely can and will.

All that said, the Fed is gonna hike again and the regionals raped. The Charles Schwab corporation will trade to ZERO amidst more cash sorting and the war in Ukraine will be lost to NATO and Russia will likely bomb Warsaw by Xmas.

All of these things, and much more, looms — so why not be directionally bearish after such a nice and handsome run?

Later on today, I’ll sulk over a few more things and then maybe pop open a bottle of Burgundy and perhaps BBQ some sort of meat on the grill. I haven’t been cooking at all, since Mrs. Fly has more or less banned me from doing it. I used to enjoy it but now that is over and all I do now is read, listen to books, garden, gym, talk shit online, and various other concerns in regards to consumerism.

I like to review mega winners to see trends and dream about what could’ve been. Every investor, no matter their success, wants to snag a mega winner at least once in their lives. For me, I achieved this twice — once long AOL in the early day into the dot com bubble and then again with ETH — making 17x my money.

The SPY is +168% the past decade, NASDAQ +400% — spearheaded by Apple and Amazon.

What stood out aside from the household names we all know?

CELH +42,000%. I became enamored with this stock several years ago and regrettably sold it. It has achieved great success due to its energy drink. This is a very hard path to replicate.

NVDA 11,500%. We all knew NVDA and saw them struggling to make chips for decades. Then something changed in 2016. Look at the Stocklabs price to sales valuation chart for NVDA.

It leapt from a sleep 3x to 8x because they had chips for crypto mining. Now the stock is trading 40x sales, which is absurd — because of AI. I own the stock in trust accounts and have no plans to sell it.

TSLA +3500%. The innovator of our lifetime.

AMD 3,000%

ENPH 2,600%

AVGO 2,100%

SMCI 2,100%

See a common theme? All semis, a little solar — the shift in human behavior can be easily ascertained here. As an investor, ask yourself now — “how is human behavior shifting now and what areas of the economy stand to win?” After you figure that out, then you can dig into the names that best represent them.