18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
We have the fucking Texas Railroad Commissioner on the line right now with Saudi Arabia cutting deals. What the fuck do we need jobs for? Everyone is obsessed with the employment outlook for the country. Meanwhile, on Twitter, the fucking Railroad Commissioner for the state of Texas is telling a different story, a tale of MASSIVE supply cuts of 10 million barrels per day. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Yeah, I know what the haters will say.
“Fly what the fuck does it matter, not a single plane in the sky — NO ONE is using oil.”
Whatever. After the virus passes and the economy is RIPPING higher again, oil is gonna go up so much your eyes will bleed. I’m talking $5,000 per barrel. How about that — fucked face? A flight to Paris will cost 1 million dollars — as planes cater to the super high end wealthy only. The bums will have to stay home and sustain of their government dole of $1,200 per mo.
“My sense is that when we get April data a month from now, we’ll see that the economy lost somewhere between 10 and 15 million jobs,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Anlaytics, said earlier this week. “That would be consistent with the initial claims for unemployment insurance data that we’re getting.”
Dow futs are -90, but WTI is higher by 11%, Brent by 16% — thanks to the commissioner. The Eurostoxx 50 is down 0.4%; but they’re all pussies. America will show the world, once again, how to do this shit. We don’t need jobs to see stocks higher. We have UNLIMITED MONEY hacks at the Fed, men on the phone in Texas, and a bunch of unemployed losers now surfing for porn on the internet, as God intended.
Trump pumped oil markets with a tweet, which was later denied by the Saudis. Then markets faded like a motherfucker, losing a 350 point rally, only to rally up again after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER offered this fucking tweet.
Just had a great conversation with Russia's @novakav1. While we normally compete, we agreed that #COVID19 requires unprecedented level of int'l cooperation. Discussed 10mbpd out of global supply. Look forward to speaking with Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman soon.
Into the bell, I went short real estate, oil, and small caps. I am long gold and consumer staples, positioning for a Friday collapse. Anything can happen and the news is now important to juice markets. I sense the oil markets are now the most important for the market, so look for real chicanery to come out of OPEC and Trump the next few days.
Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!
I am now leaning towards positioning SHORT, especially REITs and I like oil SHORT here — because OPEC sucks and Trump is a fucking pumper.
UPDATE:
Just had a great conversation with Russia's @novakav1. While we normally compete, we agreed that #COVID19 requires unprecedented level of int'l cooperation. Discussed 10mbpd out of global supply. Look forward to speaking with Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman soon.
What a fucking hectic morning. I thought I’d awaken to a bleak landscape strewn with waste and chards of metal bustling through the easterly winds, instead I got an end to the pandemic and massive short squeeze in crude — propelled by incredulous statements out of Trump, alluding to the Saudis and Russians cutting production by as much as 10 million barrels per day.
The result was sharply higher crude, and even higher oil stocks. I missed this trade by a day, having sold out of my MUR and HAL just the other day. I went into today HEAVILY long virus plays, which all looked great yesterday, but absolutely dreadful today.
Luckily, I covered my shorts early and also had some NUGT. This is what I booked today, thus far.
I also chased oil stocks here, admittedly. You don’t get to see a 40% move in crude everyday. Right now WTI is OFF THE HIGHS, but still +22%. Buying after 20% moves is dangerous, but I sense that this could be a key moment for the space. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe not. We’ll see.
I’m getting FLOGGED on FRO — because a supply cut means less tanker volume. I’m not too sure about that, but again — we will see.
At the end of the day, in an attempt to bring normalcy to my holdings, I’ve been buying consumer staples that pay dividends and trying to trade around it. I could end up looking like an absolute clown today, or a champion. I am experienced and humble enough to tell you this is not investing, more akin to gambling.
Nevertheless, in the big scope of things, higher crude is good for every facet of the economy now. It helps the junk bond market, the banks, employments, and offers a semblance of inflation — which is why gold is doing so well.
Markets had an idea about rallying, but now have collapsed again and firmly in the red. For the week, 6.6 million jobs were lost, bringing the sum total to over 10 million in a fortnight. The idea that we can get this economy up and running again quickly will soon become a phantom, as permanent damage is afflicted to both small and large businesses.
Absent a vaccine to assuage concerns over a Coronavirus reoccurrence, people will be extremely reticent to PACK TIGHTLY into luxury cruise liners, shopping malls, concerts, and bars EVER AGAIN.
Futures were +350 and now we’re down 200.
I made two morning sales, APRN for +10.6% and AMPE for +9%.
UPDATE: In response to market firming, I sold FAZ for +4.6% and SOXS for +8.7%.
I started off the day completely bogged down in longs. Smartly, I started to scale out with losses. The market was down 600, so I doubled down on SOXL, which was down 10%, and sold it into a rip for a 1.7% loss. As I continued to dump stocks and take my lumps, I grabbed my balls and positioned into this bitch sideways and short — long FAZ, SOXS.
Markets ended down 1,000, making my moves more than golden, but what legends are made from.
As markets started to dump out virus plays started to lift in earnest. I booked a 9.9% intra-day rip in APT and noticed, via my newswire, governments started to make masks compulsory. This got me thinking to throw in all available funds into makers of N-95 masks and I’m not talking MMM.
I got in and then saw those fuckers sprint the fuck higher. At the end of the day, the harmony of my trading ended up to be 3x inverse Portnoy — who got bogged the fuck out bagholding 40,000 shares of BA today for a cool -$450k.
This is a brutal business, but only the lion shall prevail. Davey Zebra should stick to betting on foolsball games and leave the arena of champions to men of a higher quality.
Dave Portnoy was a hedge fund manager yesterday, after making $90k on a $3m account. Today he tested his hubris and margined his account to $5.5m and bought 40,000 BA at $139. His livestream has since went off and now his down $300k from his basis.
Any questions?
The rally you wanted to have is now over. We’re looking down the barrel of national and global lockdown thru summer, 250k deaths in America, 50% reduction in GDP, 30%+ unemployment. It is fucking over.
The Fed cannot make the virus go away. We had a nice rally, but now it’s over.
I am now directionally defensive and short, via FAZ, SOXS and have virus stocks working higher. I took some losses today and I didn’t feel good taking them. But I can’t turn back the clock and undo a mistake. What I can do is set a course that is likely to succeed now in this environ.
You will get nothing. No bounces. No carbs. Nothing but wooden spoons and gruel and outsized losses, as fuckers capsize into the black sea and drown.
All of the hallmarks of a stark turn lower are present now, with exception to upside movement in semis. I took the opportune to unload many of my mistakes this morning, in addition to averaging down in SOXL — which ended up providing me with an honorable exit of -1.7%.
BOGGED for sure, but I have a few irons in the fire now working. One thing is for certain, the volatility affords one the opportunity to claw back from the dead and profit.
Two things, rancid action in banks. They are shorts.
I like the action in gold. They are longs.
Old man stocks like SJM provide safety and comfort, but this market is wholly unforgiving and should be treaded carefully. I know your bias is wrong, because it is higher. We are going to retest the lows.
I got caught leaning hard this morning, long for the sake of short term trading. I booked a loss of 10% in MAR today and have about a dozen other stocks bogging me down now. My sense is that destruction lies in the not-too-distant future, yet here I am trying to buy dips. The rationale is of course greed and the idea that sporadic jumps are customary in bear markets.
I was fortunate to buy IFRX in the After Hours last night at $4.85. I sold it today for a 33% gain. Even with that, I stand to lose some money today — due to my bullishness. I am not, however, throwing in the towel just yet, since I do believe in financial rigging and all of the bells and whistles that go with it. I am comfortable being net short towards the close of trade, much more than intra-day, where mean reversion trades are known to take place.
The news is grim, more than 4k Americans dead from COVID-19, soaring unemployment and massive liquidity issues in just about every sector. The hopium depends on a quick resolution. However, last night Trump said to prepare for a hellish two weeks, and the WH projected up to 240,000 dead when it’s all said and done.
Markets look to be settling in here, down 700. I will take a look at things and make adjustments soon.
The SPY was down 20%, but the story was much worse on a sector by sector basis. Although tech held up relatively well, posting a loss of only 22%, most stocks dropped by 40%. Some of the more severe industries hit hardest by the collapse in crude and quarantine dropped by 75%-90% of its value — teetering on bankruptcy.
Oil dropped 70% and the world as we knew it changed, seemingly overnight due to a BAT SOUP virus that has since gripped the world, plagued us with death and mayhem — pushing western nations to the brink and forcing central banks to intervene on a scale never seen before. The stimulus coming into the economy, as a result of this new born crisis, will likely top $10 trillion before it’s all said and done. The Fed has declared to have “unlimited money” to fight the deflationary scourge. One would surmise, seeing all of this printing, that gold would trend higher. Gold itself moved higher by 4.5% for the quarter, but the miners caught a battle-ax to the cranium, lower by 20% for the year.
Part of the reason is due to mine shut ins, which limits the profits and viability of miners. Retail foot traffic, according to Cowen, is down 97.6% year over year. Thus far, nearly 200k people in America have been afflicted with COVID-19. I lost my Uncle to it last night. More people have been lost to this than on 9/11, yet many still believe it to be a joke, since we’re living in an era of disbelief.
I have deep concerns about the future of the global economy and pecking order. These types of declines usually precede depressions. Goldman BallSachs is forecasting a staggering -34% decline in Q2 GDP, with 15% unemployment. They’re also projecting a +19% jump in GDP, largest on record, based upon the idea that everything will go back to normal. That’s the big bet here, isn’t it?
Leverage loans and high yield CLOs were blown the fuck out for the quarter. The S&P LSTA Index hit a low of -22% for the year before recovering half its losses in recent weeks. We’ve been on a nice roll the past week or so, up nearly 20% from the lows. Stocks like BA higher by 50% the past two weeks, but down 55% for the year. The chop has become untenable for some. The decline has dragged in all sorts of unsavory people into the market, persons of low information trying their hand at trading emboldened by the belief that what goes down must come back up. Dave Portnoy comes to mind with that, tossing $3m into the market for all to see him trading in real time, carelessly tossing millions of dollars into a single trade and declaring himself a genius after closing out a 1% return.
Life as we knew it changed. Since it happened so fast, we still believe it can go back to the way it used to be. But can it? Will people go back to cruises and PACK TIGHTLY into concerts anytime soon? I suspect it will take years to get back to January of 2020 and I am preparing for that eventuality. I cannot find a steady source of toilet paper and papered towels in North Carolina, a state with only 1,500 infections and a handful of deaths. These aren’t normal times and the damage done to the crude sector is bound to have deep and everlasting effects on many states dependent on oil money. Wyoming Asphalt Heavy Sour traded at NEGATIVE 19 cents a few days ago and is now worthless. Many landlocked crude prices in America are 50% below WTI spot. This is an industry that employs over 10 million Americans. We were the largest producer of crude in the world.
Bonds have been a safe haven, specifically treasuries, with the 10yr at 0.68%. But this drop hasn’t translated into a drop in mortgage rates, since the mortgage industry blew up amidst unprecedented margin calls. The corporate bond market has recently recovered since the Fed started to buy everything and we’ve seen RECORD issuance in recent days. But without the Fed, it was in free fall mode — with the LQD hitting a low of $105, presently trading above $124. High yield ETF HYG hit a low of $67, now trading at $77 — hasn’t done as well as LQD because the Fed can only buy IG.
I closed out the quarter +100% on my trading account, thanks to monstrous wins in virus stocks and a sundry of timely in and outs that pretty much marked the best trading in my career. I have recently struggled with some trades and have taken some losses. I am presently very long and in the worst sectors — hoping for a bounce. I say “hope” because it’s an extension of my intuition. My retirement account is still 100% cash and I might’ve pulled the trigger too soon on that — but I feel more comfortable this way — being in complete control to make changes on the go.
Q1 is in the books. I hope you survived it. If you didn’t, you’ll be shining my shoes before long.
NO BOOZE, NO CARBS. NOTHING. STEEL YOURSELVES MEN for the fires are here and they’re burning bright. Be on point for we can turn lower or higher on a drop of a dime.
