MARKETS BELIEVE IN Q3 BECAUSE QE IS FOREVER

Do not misconstrue this missive for a complaint. These are just facts.

The market is already dead. Agreed? Without the Fed we are at zero right now and the market is halted for 6 months. Going forward into a NEGATIVE 40% GDP, markets would COLLAPSE again and cause social discord to the point of home invasions for toilet paper. Essentially, we are presently propped up on digital dollars papering over losses and filling the black void that is this depression. Pardon me as I take artistic license on the word “depression.” I’ve always conjured up wild ideas in my head that -40% GDP and 30% unemployment fit the bill.

The reason why we’re not down 3,000 today is because news of a reduced number of people being admitted into NYC ICUs. Now these numbers were bound to drop, since we’re all holed up in the house now. What happened once we’re released out into the public, like Kool-Aid guys hopped up on too much caffeine — touching and grabbing one another again — sneezing directly into each other’s fucking faces?

I don’t know — but Morgan Stanley does. The catamites are Morgan UPPED their lower end range for the SPY for 2020 to 2,500, chiding investors to take advantage of dips — a lesson of sorts now with the benefit of hindsight. Yes, all of the stewards of capital who were holding COCKS IN HANDS a fortnight ago are now declared geniuses again — because they had the eternal fortitude and fortune to fall asleep at the wheel. Clients will be most grateful this Xmas season, as the FEMA COFFINS are ferried into their city square by intermodal transport.

Everyone is a fucking know it all and everyone knows nothing. In the end, you drop dead of a heart attack and someone says a few nice things about you, buries you cheaply, and forgets you ever existed. In the meantime, from now until then, markets are going to apply max pain. It is your job as someone who is tactical to figure out where the pain resides. Does it reside in the asleep at the wheel guy sucking Fed cock every night or the guy who’s missed out on a decade worth of bull market because he couldn’t accept the rigged game?

I do not have a definitive answer — because like you I know nothing. I am only good at reacting spontaneously to the pangs and the bangs. For the day, I sold two stocks, basically a wash. I like gold, even some oil here — and fuck the banks.

Down 400 right out from the gates. Your 401ks are in the trash and you’re trying to fish it out, shine it up, and place it back on the mantle. You’re now dealing with complete and total trash and because the Fed is your sugar daddy — you think this can last forever.

Well, I’ve got news for you. The Fed can’t plug every hole.

Real Estate firm RDFN said listing were down 44% the past week.
The WSJ said FB ad rates dropped 25% in March.

Will the Fed BUY UP ALL THE FUCKING ADS too?
Will the Fed FORCE YOU to sell your home?

I didn’t think so.

See pal, there are two types of people in this world — people who believe and people who know. I know. You believe whatever you want — but in the end — I will be right.

We are going to crash this fuckers through the trees and into the ground — nothing can stop it.

HISTORIC. Understand what just happened at OPEC. Those cocksuckers just acquiesced to the fact we’re all fucked. They are telling you now, as clear as day, the global economy is beyond saving and isn’t coming back any time soon.

The group, known as OPEC+, initially proposed cutting production by 10 million barrels per day on Thursday, but Mexico opposed the amount it was being asked to cut, holding up any final deal.

Under OPEC+’s new agreement, Mexico will cut 100,000 barrels per day, instead of the 400,000 barrels per day it had initially been asked to cut.

On Friday President Donald Trump said the U.S. would cut production in an effort to get Mexico “over the barrel.”

I expect futures will be UP on this news tonight and I expect nothing less than a morning meltup, followed by a massive down pouring of all sell orders — the likes you haven’t seen in weeks. Why do I think this is going to happen? Because the stock market Gods DEMAND we retest the lows — because that’s how these things work. You don’t get to V shape the fuck out of this thing, pal. No, you run and slip and fumble and the killer catches up to you and knives you in the face, as you attempt to place a trade on your mobile app. Nothing is over. This shit has only just begun.

The prevailing sentiment amongst all of my advisor friends on Wall Street now is there is zero chance for anything materially bad to happen now that the Fed has, essentially, decided to finance everything. They will finance munis, junk bonds, small business loans, federal deficits, maybe buy stocks, finance static CLOs, etc. The list goes on and on.

Here is a typical dialogue I’ve had in recent days.

“But what if Q3 isn’t as good as we think and forbearance rates keep rising?”

“That’s ok, because mortgage services will get funding from Fed.”

“So the end user doesn’t matter?”

“Correct.”

“But if stores aren’t opened and GDP is down 50%, does that matter? Who will fill the hole?”

“The Fed will just print more.”

“So, no matter how large the deficit, the Fed will simply print more money to bail everyone out, indefinitely?”

“Yes.”

And that’s that. There is no debating with someone who gives up rational thought. Gone are the days when markets were priced according to earnings and business. According to most of my friends, we don’t even need business anymore. Why, people can just sit at home and collect dole and see their stocks RIGGED higher — because the Fed will simply backstop it out.

This type of smugness and arrogance is what will lead to a massive and collective societal collapse. We went from extreme fear to extreme greed in a period of two weeks, while businesses have only worsened. I’ve made most of my money on the upside, playing the rip — but I am still very much a bear for the remainder of the year and will look to fade this arrogance in the coming week.

There’s a special hell designed for people like this and I hope to see them burning inside of those fires soon.

I see a lot of V-tards out there conjuring up reason why markets DESERVE to trade even higher, whilst the global economy is shut the fuck down. Understand that these bear market rallies are the essential vitamins to keep plebs going until their heads are to be removed from their bodies.

Most consumer sensitive names, as shown from a basket I’ve made in Exodus below, enjoyed 50% returns the past week. If you missed out on the run, I understand — because of the news flow. But that’s no excuse and you have no business managing your own money.

Find solace in knowing there are people, such as myself, out there who’ve dedicate themselves to a life of wanton generosity — helping the unwashed masses escape dystopian lifestyles and their housing tenements to perhaps one day own a townhouse outside the city limits, across the street from a lightly running railroad.

There is no reason or rationale for markets to head back to RECORD HIGHS, other than massive mental ailments infecting investor psyche to the point of irreversible degeneracy, the sort of perversion that breaks with decorum and walks around the living room with tits and cocks hanging out.

I know for a fact the rout isn’t over and I know there will be stark days ahead. I am prepared for such an eventuality, but careful not to allow my opinions get in the way of a good trade. This much you do know. I am better than you in almost every regard and have a natural talent to dive into the market pool and come out with a net filled with fish. I have never intended to teach any of you how to trade. Why, that would be ridiculous, just like you would never dare to teach me how to become an alcoholic. But if you’re able to sit quietly and eat fish, I’d be more than willing to STUFF YOUR FUCKING GULLETS with delicacies from the sea.

In a holiday abbreviated week, markets certainly gave us bang for our dollars. I had some difficulty dealing with the chop on Monday but quickly adjusted my position and did what I always do best: follow the trends.

I don’t teach people how to trade. It’s a waste of my time and yours. But for those who are moderate to good at trading, hear this.

At some point the market will DEMAND we retest the lows. You cannot contemplate it now because MUH FED and MUH RE-OPENING OF THE ECONOMY. I’ve done the homework and we’re looking at 3 months minimum of harsh economic conditions. What we’re boring witness to now is on par with a video game. This is merely a parlour trick to give society something to hang their hats on. Happy Passover and Happy Easter — markets surge the fuck higher and everything is going to be ok.

No it isn’t.

Timing is everything and the past week was a bad time to be short. It doesn’t make you wrong, but stubborn. Heed what I am saying to you — it’s always better to fade the opening rip than guess on the next day’s direction.

I closed out the week on a 26 for 26 winning streak, still going strong. Roughly 45% cash, heavily long dividend paying consumer staples all trending higher.

My trades:

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%
CPB +1.9%
NYMT +33%
MFA +8.3%
MAC +10.8%
CNK +4.4%
SM +4.8%
GCO +5.1%
STWD +1.4%
RWT +25%
PMT +8.6%
MTG +7.8%
CIT +12.5%
CC +11%
ORC +9%
CBRL +8%
HA +8.8%
NUGT +10.4%
FTI +6.6%

NOTE: If you want to read about how I traded the dot com disaster and how I got fucking wiped out, for new readers out there — I wrote two books on the subject.

iBC servers were down, but now we’re back up. Let’s bring you up to speed.

6.6m jobless claims for the past week, bringing us up to a grande total of 16m the past 3 weeks, raising unemployment rate to 10%. On that news, futures crashed lower. But then the Fed announced their $2.3t “Main Street” facility, which included a new $500b for Munis and also the authority to purchase HIGH YIELD bonds and CLOs. Bro, they’re buying LEVERAGED LOANS. This is the result of some hard lobbying by private equity. Coupled with that, they’re now talking about a May 1st reopening of the economy. All of this sounds sweet and wonderful. But remember, this is all talk. None of this is putting spenders back in the economy.

Nevertheless, because of the Fed action, futures soared and now we’re up 525. I took this spike ti liquidate my trading positions.

Here were the results.

RWT +25%
PMT +8.6%
MTG +7.8%
CIT +12.5%
CC +11%
ORC +9%
CBRL +8%
HA +8.8%
NUGT +10.4%
FTI +6.6%

This is getting somewhat redundant. I get it. But let me make something indelibly clear for you. NO ONE DOES IT BETTER THAN ME. I am now on a 26 for 26 winning streak.

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%
CPB +1.9%
NYMT +33%
MFA +8.3%
MAC +10.8%
CNK +4.4%
SM +4.8%
GCO +5.1%
STWD +1.4%
RWT +25%
PMT +8.6%
MTG +7.8%
CIT +12.5%
CC +11%
ORC +9%
CBRL +8%
HA +8.8%
NUGT +10.4%
FTI +6.6%

Presently, I am 55% cash, tightly sealed inside of the Jelly Jar and other old man stocks paying dividends. I am doubtful that I will force myself back into high beta trading positions after such a run. But anything can happen.

Thank you for playing. Join us inside Exodus for real time FRESH FISH directly inserted into your fucking face.

The United States is putting Saudi Arabia on notice for production cuts.

LETTER TO SAUDI CROWN PRINCE FROM U.S LAWMAKERS SAYS FAILURE TO REVERSE OIL CRISIS MEANS THEY WILL ENCOURAGE ANY RECIPROCAL RESPONSES BY U.S. GOVERNMENT

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 8, 2020

Our relationship with China is at a record low. I would not be surprised to see some real xenophobic shit happen over the next 4 years of Trump’s term.

The market drifted higher because that’s where the pain is — located in cash accounts and people who sold out in fear trying to reconcile for missing out. On Wall Street, we call it FOMO (fear of missing out). In a sense, FOMO is what drives us to do great things. But in this case, I fear the market is gravely mistaken. It would not be the first time stocks rose on bad news. But this is more than bad. We are quite literally ball room dancing into dystopia.

I closed the session up more than 700bps. I am 100% long and will liquidate my positions into tomorrow mornings melt up. Remember, markets are closed on Friday, so tomorrow is the new Friday.

And to answer your many emails, yes, all Fly trades are made in real time inside Exodus, emailed out and texted. Join us for a month, but just know if I don’t like you — I’ll cancel your ass and ban you.

I sent Portnoy a mug the other day. It was blessed by the Stock Gods for ‘big dicked gains.” Maybe he should use it.

Hey ?@stoolpresidente? , I sent you that mug to bless you with fortune. You chose not to drink from it. Consider using it tomorrow.

Rooting for you.

Fly pic.twitter.com/1a5lB3r73U

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 8, 2020

Long ago I stopped trying to rationalize the movements in stocks, short term. Without question, I believe we will, at some point, retest the lows. Do I need to delve into the rationale? Here’s Cramer’s take on the recent mess — confused as ever before.

The Dow is up nearly 500 and one could only surmise that buying stocks now, into a -50% GDP and 40% unemployment is a ruinous proposition. But that’s why trading is a skill, and not a right. There is a certain poetic ebb and flow to this and only real traders who’ve been in this game foe decades understands what I’m saying. My opinions change on a minute by minute basis and bullish now can transmorph into bearish later — because the moves are fast and the emotions are hot. Ideologues cannot make it in this game. Guys who wolf down pizza for a living and operate click-bait sports sites should save their money to stockpile T-shirt inventory and leave the trading to professional, men like myself who’ve been seasoned by the FIRES and have learned from millions of dollars in capital losses how to trade successfully.

I consider myself to be the very best trader in the world, not because my ego is out of control and I’m a fucking lunatic — but because I am the best and have never met anyone better.

Sure you can say “fuck head — you haven’t met the world.” That much is true and I take your points as valid — but fuck off. I do not subordinate myself to anyone, certainly not the likes of you. “The Fly” is omnipresent in this bitch, bobbing and weaving — punching jaws the fuck loose up in this quarantine bitch.

I started off bearish and now I’m foolishly bullish. I’ve done so because I am the wind and do not simply drift with it like so many of you — but I am the wind itself and have a direct connection with Mother Market herself.

Earlier this morning, after booking gains, I stepped back into the market with all of my might. Presently, I am 95% long and I’d tell you what I bought — but you’d have to be a distinguished members of Exodus first.

So sorry, stock picks are for members only.

Last two trading days has reignited a hot streak in me, one for you to both marvel and glare at with sheer disdain. While you sit there, uncomfortably, in your spiny chair attempting to day trade — blowing yourself up and out, Le Fly effortlessly scores monumental wins.

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%
CPB +1.9%
——— TODAY’S FISH
NYMT +33%
MFA +8.3%
MAC +10.8%
CNK +4.4%
SM +4.8%
GCO +5.1%
STWD +1.4%

Do not attempt to learn how to trade, if you aren’t any good at it. By “good”, I mean — if you are able to make money doing it. Some will lie to you and say “KEEP AT IT, ATTA BOY — GET UP THERE AND STRIKE OUT A COUPLE HUNDRED TIMES BEFORE YOU GET A SINGLE.” I will not waste your time and offer delusions. You’re a doctor, a lawyer, a trashman, a homeless person. But you are NOT a trader. Stick to what you know and do best — get drunk and cavort with hookers. Leave the trading to the professionals, men who’ve been thru the caustic elements and STEELED themselves, forged by the fires of yesteryear and today. These are not ordinary times and you don’t go out trying to learn baseball by batting against Nolan Ryan in his prime. This is not the type of market amateurs and rookies should be playing in.

On a general note, I do not like the morning action. I sold a bunch of stuff — raising cash to 40%.