iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,318 Blog Posts

DANGER — COMPLETE BREAKDOWN NEARS

All of the hallmarks of a stark turn lower are present now, with exception to upside movement in semis. I took the opportune to unload many of my mistakes this morning, in addition to averaging down in SOXL — which ended up providing me with an honorable exit of -1.7%.

My day, thus far.

IFRX +33%
(MAR -10.2%)
(DK -3.55%)
(MUR -14.2%)
(HAL -5.8%)
(FANG -6.7%)
(HFC -9.7%)
(MNK -9%)
(SOXL -1.7%) x2
(JACK -3.8%)

BOGGED for sure, but I have a few irons in the fire now working. One thing is for certain, the volatility affords one the opportunity to claw back from the dead and profit.

Two things, rancid action in banks. They are shorts.

I like the action in gold. They are longs.

Old man stocks like SJM provide safety and comfort, but this market is wholly unforgiving and should be treaded carefully. I know your bias is wrong, because it is higher. We are going to retest the lows.

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13 comments

  1. numbersgame

    FRO still working, thanks. Still don’t know why you or anyone else would want to be long stocks going into

    “1 million Americans diagnosed with COVID-19”

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    • narcist

      One of the bullish arguments (that aren’t Fed/govt-related) is that the market didn’t crash in 1918:

      https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

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      • awanka

        This coincided with the end of WW1. Be very cautious about modelling the markets based on this event. This goes for anything that happened a century ago.

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        • narcist

          True. The markets were different in so many ways a century ago. Far fewer people (in both absolute and percentage terms) of the population owned/traded stocks then. Also, life expectancy was far lower. It wasn’t such a terrible thing to die at 40 in those times.

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          • peaches

            Debt/GDP isn’t irrelevant either.

            USA was the world leader by a longshot after the 2 world wars.

            The 5 next most developed countries in the world after BOTH world wars were paying off debts (in gold) to the US treasury for years.

            I know history that goes back more than 20 years is considered irrelevant to most clowns on this blog but it repeats itself whether we learn it or not

            US in 2020 is much more like UK in 1980 or Rome in 376.

            Too high on last year’s champagne to realize there is nothing but mad dog left in the fridge.

            Shit collapses when everyone running the show becomes convinced it’ll never end.

            But I am a latino. So I’m probably wrong.

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  2. alty

    So you’re saying my 4/9 233P have a chance.

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  3. metalleg

    You’ve been Portnoyed!

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  4. Mr. Cain Thaler

    “We are going to retest the lows.”

    We are going to slice through the lows. So far, all we have done is wiped out the insane meltup that was 2019. Yet we are also beginning a recession that early indications suggest are at least as severe as the one from 2008/09. In Michigan today, the National Restaurant Association and Michigan Restaurant and Lodging Association published a study suggesting 1 in 3 restaurants could go bankrupt. They’ve already lost half a billion dollars in revenue and 72,000 jobs in just the first 22 days. That’s one state.

    Who’s ever heard of a recession this bad but that then leaves basically all of a 12 year bull market rally intact? We’re going to at least S&P 2000 on this next leg lower and then we’ll see where we are.

    And on top of that, literally everyone is just sort of assuming that this shit is going away this summer. It’s 90 degrees in Florida right now and the virus doesn’t appear to be slowing at all.

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    • i_am_nemo

      It will come back in the fall as a different strain if it follows the pattern of other viruses. Maybe stronger and more lethal or maybe not.

      The fact remains that the airlines, cruise lines, hotels, car rental, hospitality is not going back to where it was for many years.

      If colleges can conduct most classes online, then why move away from home and spend tons of money to sit in a lecture hall?

      Video conferencing and remote work/learning have been shoved into overdrive. Who is going to want to go back to the old way of doing things?

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      • peaches

        Suddenly it will become apparent that $50,000 a year for tuition at a private college is a waste of $45,000.

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    • the_wolf

      couldn’t agree more mr thaler, i think we slice right through s&p 2000 though,….. devil told me so

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  5. purdy

    As stocks resume their move lower, it is interesting that TLT is now at lod after kissing down trend line off of recent all time high. WTF? 20 year money should be free ..right?

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