iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,344 Blog Posts

Q2 STARTS OFF WITH A BOGGING

I got caught leaning hard this morning, long for the sake of short term trading. I booked a loss of 10% in MAR today and have about a dozen other stocks bogging me down now. My sense is that destruction lies in the not-too-distant future, yet here I am trying to buy dips. The rationale is of course greed and the idea that sporadic jumps are customary in bear markets.

I was fortunate to buy IFRX in the After Hours last night at $4.85. I sold it today for a 33% gain. Even with that, I stand to lose some money today — due to my bullishness. I am not, however, throwing in the towel just yet, since I do believe in financial rigging and all of the bells and whistles that go with it. I am comfortable being net short towards the close of trade, much more than intra-day, where mean reversion trades are known to take place.

The news is grim, more than 4k Americans dead from COVID-19, soaring unemployment and massive liquidity issues in just about every sector. The hopium depends on a quick resolution. However, last night Trump said to prepare for a hellish two weeks, and the WH projected up to 240,000 dead when it’s all said and done.

Markets look to be settling in here, down 700. I will take a look at things and make adjustments soon.

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19 comments

  1. edge

    Not much volume for a 3% down open, Fly I think the bears are losing their grip. No hurry to sell this morning…watching.

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  2. henceforth

    Market valuation right now is still high here, equivalent to 2007 levels adjusted for GDP.

    An eventual recovery once the Chinese Petulance goes away is priced into the market. But I doubt it will be that simple with Crude as low as it is. Much of the growth the US saw in the last decade came from the fracking boom.

    We are at the start of a lossed decade for stonks.

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    • numbersgame

      Yup, 2T4B ($2 Trillion Baby Bommer Bailout Bill) passed so easily that people get the psychological impression that it has no downside. Same with the FED’s actions, as dmeonstarted the thinking of by #InfiniteKashkiri and his fellow goveronors

      If this recession ends quickly, what then? 10 + years of stcok gains powered by fallling interest rate? Obvious problem with that thinking…

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  3. numbersgame

    Did you plan for EoQ shenanigans?
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/26/markets-rip-higher-now-20-past-3-days/#comment-568814
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/26/markets-rip-higher-now-20-past-3-days/#comment-568816

    Did you buy 3x bears?
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/30/no-bottom-crude-heading-zero/#comment-569079

    Such as SQQQ?
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/30/land-locked-american-crude-literally-worthless-now/#comment-569118
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/31/drinking-kool-aid-tastes-like-hope/#comment-569216

    Maybe FAZ?
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/30/shorts-pressed-flat-steeled-markets-bust-thru-guns-blazing/#comment-569214

    Or maybe you went long AMZN instead?
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/31/drinking-kool-aid-tastes-like-hope/#comment-569225

    Maybe you were concerned that “bears would be trapped” as US deaths spike to 100,000 during the next two week?

    Anyway…..as of right now, a lot of that is hedged via CURE and SOXL, but still leaning short through the literal bloodbath.

    While Goldman et-all is rpedicting a U-shped recovert, e have yet to see earning reports and forecasts from major companies

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    • purdy

      “I’m Me!”
      See folks, if you post enough, you too can mine your past posts and link to the stuff that make you beam with pride. Put a gold star on the fridge for Numbers!

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      • numbersgame

        Don’t worry, keep trying, you’ll get a gold star one day, too

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      • narcist

        He is still far more tolerable than most of the base of this site who think AP Biology is for fags/nerds and yet consider themselves well-educated economists/epidemiologists.

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        • peaches

          I was at a commercial building in Manhattan working on IT networking equipment… the HVAC guy was there also.

          Chubby. Gold-plated chain wearing Armani type.

          My coworker sneezed… I told him he was going to die and pull out my hand sanitizer and after I use it I offered it to the HVAC guy.

          He looked at me like I was stupid and told me “I don’t need that shit bro”

          He had all the right stickers on the back of his van also.

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          • narcist

            At least he didn’t decorate his van with Confederate symbols, I’d assume.

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  4. edge

    See my comments on previous article but- more spending on the way on top of a half year’s worth of GDP already apptoved. Market ignoring bad news.

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  5. numbersgame

    Did I sell early? Not bullish: 30yrs dropping below 1 1/4%

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  6. crabby

    “Two weeks” BUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Try two MONTHS! Take a close look at COVID DEATHS (NOT infections – those numbers are made-up). Italy was similar to the US in that it was initially lax in taking containment and isolation measures seriously. In case you haven’t been tracking the deaths there, this shit spreads like a crown fire in a howling Santa Ana. Doesn’t dissipate that way though. Italy has been crying for a peak for WEEKS (today is day 23 since lockdown). Maybe they peaked on day 18, but the death numbers are still so high, it doesn’t matter much. They’ll continue to burn bodies at the rate of thousands per week for WEEKS. Two weeks is a pipe dream – one more turd popping out of Trump’s ass/mouth. Me thinks we’ll be tied to the mast quite a bit longer.

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    • tjnyt

      Closing barn door after horse…

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    • numbersgame

      Let’s see now, 100,000 deaths @ a 1-2% death rate = 5-10 Million **confirmed*** infections. That is Turmp’s “Mission Accomplished” low bar.

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      • purdy

        You should be creaming your jeans about Trump’s incompetence …think of all those dead boomers that won’t be receiving the multi-trillion dollar bailout that you imagine they’re getting.

        You see Numbers, you need to learn to distinguish between the C suite beneficiaries of the bailout …who will be just fine as they have top level medical care …and your bigoted impulse to lump groups together by race, generation …i.e., by stuff over which those individuals have zero control.

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        • peaches

          “Trump rallies are full of a diverse group of people.”

          – Someone who didn’t read the Ukraine memo.

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        • peaches

          The difference between Trump supporters and everyone who hates him, is, we don’t automatically get happy when America suffers at the hands of those whose political views we don’t agree with.

          If Obama fucked up, that sucks. If Trump fucks up… That sucks too.

          There’s nothing to be proud about just because our “hunch” that this C average student who can’t keep a gambling operation profitable… Would do a horrible job of running the country ended up being correct

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  7. awanka

    I was reading this article on the LA Times about the impact of the Spanish Flu and found it pretty bullish overall. https://laist.com/2020/03/25/how_did_la_cope_with_the_influenza_epidemic_of_1918.php

    Now, it drives me crazy when economists take an event that happened a century ago and use that as a model for today, so I’m wary of reading too much into this. Also the Spanish Flu in the US had the good fortune to coincide with the end of WW1, and world wars ending tends to be bullish, so there’s a lot of noise in the data. Also have to take into account that back in 1918 I think people were just a hardier breed, and less affected by minor inconveniences like quarantines and death.

    Caveats aside though, we’re going through a lot of the same milestones they did, and it seems like they were out and about lollygagging 2 and a half months after the first lockdown. Just something to think about.

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  8. tjnyt

    Closed my shorts today, too early, from Monday, went long banks, airlines and casinos.

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