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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Reflections of Xmas, Plus Scrooge Was Right All Along!

When I was a small boy and believed in Santa Claus, I loved the holiday. I’d go to bed early and wait for the big fat bastard to break into my apartment and bestow presents to me, placed neatly under my tree. I started to realize early that he had the same hand writing as my Mother. I was one of the last around my neighborhood to learn he was fake. Mortified in 4th grade by my teacher, she drolled on how Santa was fake and how ridiculous it was for parents to lie to their kids about the most generous man to have ever lived. I remember sitting there dumbfounded by the news, as all of the kids laughed with their missing tooth smiles and giggled at the notion of Santa Claus. When I went home that day, my Mother, who has always been combative, threw a fit and ended up walking me back to the school to fight with my teacher.

“How dare you tell my son Santa isn’t real!”

As a young adult, I was always a parent. I had my son when I was just 20, so I grew up fast and made sure he believed in Santa too. In my 20s, Xmas was great. We had two more kids and made sure all of them believed in the myth and we’d ham it up, telling stories about Santa and all the things he did for us when young. There was even the tale my Mother told me about being woken up in the middle of the night by my Grandfather, sharply pulling up the windows on Xmas eve — declaring “there is Santa — look — there he is!”

My Mother swore she saw Santa and his sleigh whirr through the winter sky.

Expenditures were manageable early on, since all they needed were a few toys and some whimsical items. As time elapsed and they got older, the burden of Xmas wore on me like watching a movie for the 40th time. I know the routine, but as my priorities in life changed — so did my opinion on this fucking holiday.

I’ve come around to the way of thinking that Scrooge was right all along. When I was younger, I believed Scrooge was the worst person who ever lived, up until the point he started throwing his money around and saving Tiny Tim. But now I think the miserly Scrooge, the industrious Scrooge, is something to admire.

Why go home early on Xmas even when there is work to be done?

Why pay your idiot workers more, when you can get said work for less?

Why is it Scrooge’s responsibility for ensuring the health of Tiny Tim?

That burden, inexorably, rests on the dusty shoulders of Tim’s idiot parents.

I reminisce of a time when the holidays filled my black heart with a bit of warmth. The ideal of Xmas season, Rudolph toiling hard with his red nose to ferry Santa into my house, was idyllic. Now I am plagued by routine that is wasteful and moribund. I’d much rather spend my time and money on travel or even charity, then spoil my kids even more with items they really don’t need.

Alas, it takes two to tango.

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MY LAST 30 TRADES

Lots of bullshit artists out there. “The Fly” is just an artist, painting on the faces of my enemies — who endlessly harangue me with messages of venom. I am happy to report my last 30 trades. It makes no difference when you grab a data sample from my trading. Could be now, last month, three months ago or what have you. The results will be the same. I am the SAAS of trading, repeatable business model that keeps churning out great trades.

This is what you call a 76% win rate, 23 for my last 30.

BIDU +6.3%
PD +4.8%
NOAH +6%
SQM +5.6%
DAN +4.1%
SWKS +3.8%
(BHC -6.9%)
(QURE -5.7%)
KRTX +3.7%
CRCM +15.9%
WYNN +4.88%
NFLX +3.24%
JWN +4.8%
ESPR +3.4%
PINS +4.5%
OAS +8.7%
JD +4.4%
(CYBR -7.5%)
(XON -7.2%)
(TUSK -10.9%)
(KRTX -5%)
(OLLI -3%)
OYST +8.1%
NXTC +11%
YNDX +1.4%
BG – wash
RCL +1.8%
AMCX +2.9%
ESPR +6.5%
CHNG +6%

Granted, the market is up for a dozen days in a row, but breadth has been weak — in the range of 50-65%. This is what you call outperformance.

Can you do this on your own?

Sure, if you have the genetic material to trade. If not, I advise you to eat fish. Eat the god damned fish you’ve been given and do what God intended for you to do. For some of you that might be trash hauling, others a chiropractic. If some of you are semi smart, you might be a dentist. My point is to stop trying to trade on your own if you’re not any good at it. If you’re good at it, you wouldn’t be seeking help. I could sit down with you for one thousand years (I am immortal) and teach you everything I know, but you’ll end up reverting back to your poor methods once left on your own.

EAT THE FISH YOU’VE BEEN GIVEN.

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If You’re Buying Down Stocks, You’re Doing it All Wrong

Common misconception.

I cannot buy XYX because ‘it’s too expensive’, so I’ll buy XYS and possibly find the next XYZ.

WRONG.

There is only one Apple, one Amazon and no one really benefited from their success. The myth and the dream of tailwind success off of another giant winner has been discredited a long time ago. Companies that are crushing it usually crush their suppliers too — because they apply leverage. If you like ROKU, buy ROKU, no matter the valuation.

Are you still employed? Do you earn money? Then buy a little ROKU now, a little later, and dollar cost average into the stock over a course of a year. The idea that you should have anything but the best stocks in your portfolios is foolish and a fast track way towards and into the poorhouse.

I sold a handful of stocks today, 1-3% gains and replaced them with another handful of stocks ripping at new highs. For 2020, I intend to start a ‘best ideas’ portfolio in Exodus again, something I eschewed in recent years but now feel the urge to express my artistic license again.

In short, buy the best stocks, irrespective of valuation, and tell your in laws to buy the second rate Barnes and Nobles of the world.

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Zero Downside Until 2020

I had written out this really long blog post and then scrapped it after I realized I didn’t give a shit. Life comes at you fast and fuck the people you run over along the way. I’m a Master Ace Trader (M.A.T.) and couldn’t give two shits about the opinions of the working class.

This much I do know for certain.

I’ll never click-bait post again. Lower tier bloggers at other sites enjoy getting paid per ad. Fuck those people, good and hard.

There will be ZERO new bloggers added to this site, ever again. Fuck your needs and caprices. “The Fly” rides alone.

There will also be ZERO premium services launched from iBC away from the company. Fuck your friends and family. This is, however, a family friendly site.

Life is too short to care. I simply ride in a very fast car and run over the heads of my enemies and do not care about the tire marks left in someone’s brains.

“But Fly, what about the people?”

I am all about the people. I am a very charitable man and always side with the underdog. I have lots of deep seated issues to deal with down the road; but for now, I am a money making machine.

To that end, ZERO losses until 2020. With just a few days left, I suspect I will absolutely crush. My advice to you is simple and direct: do what I do, not what I say. Reason being, I am an expert and you’re not. If I was in a fire with a firefighter, I’d look to him to get me out of the flames. Same logic applies here.

In case you’re wondering, I got the German working around the clock on Exodus 2.0 aka Stocklabs. We just acquired the dot com domain and will launch it when it’s good and ready. Quit haranguing me about the launch date. I said, it will be launched when it’s good and god damned ready. God damn it.

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As the decade comes to a close, I’ve been reflecting about my time at iBankCoin and how its been. At the beginning of the decade I had a successful advisory business and only did the blog and Exodus on the side for fun. Initially, I started iBC in 2007 to ‘compete’ against the fucktards at The Street dot com. Then the market collapsed and I was enamored with the small amount of popularity I had attained. It was me and a handful of other bloggers, including Ragin Cajun. Matt has been my most loyal employee at the site and has stuck by my side no matter what.

After we launched Exodus in 2009, then known as The PPT, I was delighted to learn I could make decent money doing what I loved to do — trade, talk to people about trading, writing. But instead of taking the money and scaling the site into something bigger, I invested it and kept it for myself. Although I am risk with my stocks, I am quite reserved in business and didn’t trust that I could scale the site with the little I knew about the internet. As the new decade rolled on, my aspirations for the site grew and I took on numerous personalities, men from all walks of life, both novices and professionals. I started to believe I could make iBC into something very big — just about catering to community and letting people express their thoughts on markets. I opened the site up to the public, giving them a platform to blog in what I called “The Peanut Gallery.” At its peak, we must’ve had 100+ bloggers — but I viewed it to be a waste of resources. I problem I’ve had with personalities on the site is their lack of patience. Everyone who came onboard wanted to get rich fast and didn’t want to earn their audience. I didn’t pay much — because the business model made no sense, especially with the low ad rates.

We later expanded through several popular voices on the site and launched new premium services. We must’ve launched 5 or 6 since we started. Two of them were grande successes — both netting 6 figs and doing well. Shortly after, we did an investors conference in Vegas and another at the Yale Club in NYC. Both, in my view, were commercial flops, but were memorable and will probably be something I look back upon as some of the best days on the site.

I used to host annual dinners at a different upscale NYC restaurant each year, inviting one non-member of the site as my guest. These dinners would typically conclude at a cigar lounge or Katz’s Deli, and were always fun. Somewhere around mid-decade, about the time I started to really hate

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Merry Xmas to You and Yours from House Fly

There’s about a dozen biotech stocks up double digits today, one of which I am long. Since it’s Xmas eve I will tell you said stock, as a gift from me to you (A Christmas Miracle!). PRVB. I am also enthusiastically hopeful for the following stocks — all positions of mine: ROKU, XP, GBT, CLR.

The latter is an oil play, which is subject to volatility. But ’tis the season for oil. Be patient and hold them and by spring your portfolios will be rich with grandeur.

Some random news items that caught my eye this morning.

Travis Kalanack, former CEO and co-founder os UBER is severing all ties with company and selling ALL of his shares. Good for him.

The S&P is +40% since last year today.

Trump is rolling back more EPA laws.

Byron Wien likes gold for 2020.

Bearish Morgan Stanley analyst on TSLA still believes stock will drop 40%.

Everyone is fucking bullish.

How can I sit here with markets at record highs, ebulliently singing higher, and tell you this will all end and how the fires are being kindled now and will burn bright and hot soon — crisping everything you see before you to a dark cinder? I cannot. So, instead of that, I’d like to wish you a very happy Pagan Xmas, to you and yours. I hope you purchased more than I did, wasting time at the mall, Target, and wherever the wife directed you. There is much yet to do, last minute presents to wrap, and food to prepare for tonight’s festival. It is not time to relax.

Since I’m booze-free until summer, I will not be enjoining you for a drink by the fireside. Plus anyway, it’s 60 degrees here and the southerners around me will probably be firing up their smokers soon, roasting whole pigs on a spit. I will be cooking a rib roast to medium rare, no matter how many times Mrs. Fly tells me “it’s still pink, we’re gonna get poisoned.”

“Incorrect Sir!” will be my answer. I will not tolerate such ramblings from a crazy person. A well marbled prime rib should only be served medium rare. Periodt.

I am sure there are one or two items for me under the tree. But the gift I am looking forward to most are my black plastic disposable gloves that I bought on Amazon. Gone are the days of my hands smelling like onions and garlic after I cook a meal. Now when I am Iron Chef in the kitchen, I will adorn professional grade black plastic gloves. Why does that make me happy? Who knows? Perhaps I am insane.

Happy holidays and to my jewish friends happy Hanukkah. Don’t slip on those dradles spinning all around the house.

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I AM A DOCTOR AGAIN

There are sectors and trades and then there is biotech. Let me promote someone inside Exodus for a second, one of many strong traders with a hankering for depravity.

Enter Rockridge87, esteemed member of House Rockefeller — heir to a $300 billion fortune.

He thrusted himself onto the scene last week with a move so bold, so insane, it caught some attention and actually paid off in spades. His ITCI gambit concluded today in a 200% single day affair. I believe he played the options too, which yielded a 700% return — which seems low.

The point here is you cannot do it alone and finance Twitter is a laughable fucking farce. If you’re not in a room of like minded people trading all day long — how the fuck else will you hive mind this fucker to produce ideas like this? Sure, I can spit our great picks and find ideas that are atypical. I just sold OYST and NXTC for huge one day returns. But when you have an army of fuckers just like me all searching and sharing, well then, you have something akin to AI — helping you succeed on the market. That’s my Xmas pitch to you.

For the balance of my day, I will be shopping — because nothing says Xmas like $10k worth of absolute shit under my tree. Don’t tell anyone I said this — but I truly despise Xmas. I wish it was something better, something to celebrate without stress of having to buy people presents. It really is more than the money, but the stress of having to think of things to buy. This is why I prefer Halloween — a proper pagan holiday that requires nothing but dead people and candy.

I’ll be blogging later or tomorrow. So don’t go anywhere just yet.

Oh, I am still 100% long — just bought another 5 biotechs into the close. Look at the sector.

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***FUNDING IS SECURED *** $TSLA

UPDATE:

We’re there. It was a rough year for Elon, a year in which he got in trouble for tweets and smoking pot — said ‘funding was secured’ at $420 and got in trouble with the SEC.

Fast forward a little more than a year and TSLA is a cunt’s hair away from $420? Magic or is Elon a fucking space traveler?

Also, fuck Business Insider for posting a thousand negative stories on Musk and Tesla. May you forever choke on your fossil fuels. Think about how stupid that term is, “fossil fuels”, as if crude was created by dinosaur bones. The fuck out of here.

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Here Are the Top TV Shows of the 2010s

What should I discuss here on this finance blog — fucking stocks? It’s the end of the year, end of a decade, and I have a lot of shit to discuss. For example, what a decade! Lots of chicanery. Even on this olde site, which I can discuss if you want. But most of you just lurk now and only comment inside Exodus — like the little rat fuckers you are. Last week I unveiled the top 10 movies of the 2010s. Now I will unveil the top shows, in my opinion of course.

Bear in mind, I consume a lot of information — far more than the average person. In recent years I have not been too prolific — but I’m still above average. I will not include shows that began before 2007, so that disqualifies a fuckload of shows. Again, this is my opinion, which is paramount — since I have the finest taste.

Since I truly enjoyed all of these, I will not rank them in order, but simply count 10 great shows (min 3 seasons).

1. Game of Thrones
2. Homeland
3. Sherlock
4. Black Sails
5. Turn
6. Better Call Saul
7. Breaking Bad
8. Downton Abbey
9. Peaky Blinders
10.Eastbound and Down

Honorable mentions: Hannibal, The Crown

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Here Are the Biggest Large Cap Losers for 2019

Long day ahead for me, so I’ll just data dump on your faces — give you something to think about the next few days. It should be noted, when I started this fucking blog in 2007, reading is what people did — or watched TV. There wasn’t an Instagram and lots of people had blogs. Now, I am quite literally one of the last finance bloggers in the world. Sure there are a slew of fuckheaded financial advisors online, shilling for bucks. But how many them are Master Ace Traders (MAT) and how many of them are Space Alien Magicians (SAM)?

Zero.

The blogosphere is dead, an antiquated form of communication left for dinosaurs like me. I come here everyday in an flaccid attempt to communicate with a doped up ADD sensitive populous, discussing trading and others matters pertaining to things that gentlemen like to discuss. My reward has been far and few, but the payoff will be grandiose — when I finally finish my Orbital Space Cannon (OSC) and annihilate you from 100,000 feet above.

Here are the losers for 2019.

PTR -20%
HDB -38%
FOX -24%
UBER -27%
CHA -21%
OXY -37%
NOK -38%
KHC -25%
WIT -25%
BT -30%
CX -21%
PINS -21%
CGC -26%
LYFT -38%
ELS -28%
WORK -44%

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