Technology go BOOM

Yes, it’s as if I am living through the dot com era once again. Although the movements are not as violent, the pervasive moves higher in tech stocks reminds me of the days when I’d trade CSCO, at a time when it had a 500 billion dollar market cap. After all, it was the “new economy” with limitless ceilings. Here we are, 10 years later, and NFLX, AMZN, AAPL, CRM, FFIV, VMW, BIDU and let’s not forget everyone’s favorite burrito stock CMG are defying the basic laws of gravity. If you are trading momentum, inside of a bullshit 5 figure Zeeco account, you should have no problem getting out of these time bombs—when the collapse begins. However, if you are managing money, professionally, you are out of your fucking minds buying tech up here. Contrary to popular belief, NOTHING is guaranteed, not even from the Federal Reserve.

That’s the new bullshit, circling around town: The Fed has a put on the market.

I’d rather not discuss it.

This morning’s bad breadth market has improved, led by gains in tech. CRE and banks are still weak, so I am not too enthused. It’s one heck of a bull run and you are probably better off reading the missives of one of iBC’s more optimistic bloggers, providing you are into trading. “The Fly” has a line in the sand and will not cross it, no matter what.

I do like the action in TLT and it is very indicative of the true nature of this economy, much more so than the price to sales ratio of FFIV.

It’s not enough for me to pan the market, day in and day out. I must do more, in a way that cannot fucktard myself into murderholes, a la 135% “Venus Fly Trap” trading. I’ve been buying TLT rather aggressively, as it is the least aggressive way to bet against equities. One way of another, through hook or crook, yields will fall. My good pal Scott Bleier likes to say “we are Japan.” I could not agree more.

See folks, it’s time to do “The Hugh Hendry” again and piss on all of those who own TBT. Do it with vigor and tenacity. As for me, well, I’m just an olde fashioned type of guy, who opts out of chasing rallies, fueled by fucktarded money managers (Tepper). I couldn’t care less about his performance data, especially since my own data is better. In other words, Tepper can fuck a horse after a divorce, as far as I am concerned.

Vortex trading dictates or mandates the following:

Bullish on bonds
Bullish on the dollar
Bearish on Commodities (ex Gold)
Bearish on Equities

I could go on; but that pretty much sums it up. In the past, gold went lower when deflationary scares hit the market. However, the nature of gold has morphed. It is now acting like a reserve currency. With that type of status, it’s very hard to be a gold bear, for any significant length of time.

So far, breadth is poor, especially in CRE. Also, certain banks are trading like asshats, especially MTG and MFG. I like the pin action is some heavily shorted names, like ATPG. But, for the most part, I am uber bearish on this market. This market distresses me. I am taking measures to bring it down.

In response to U.S. pressures to force China to revalue the yuan, China countered with adding “anti-dumping” duties on U.S. chicken feet, anywhere from 50-100%. As of now, there are no restrictions on human fetus soup.

As many of you ham and eggers chew on granola bars, on this splendid evening, Asian markets are advancing. It’s like a chain reaction of abject stupidity, which is also reinforced by many of you simple IRA types. Your lifestyle is in line with your thinking. Therefore, I do not expect you to understand me or agree with my assertions.

On November 12th, iBC will celebrate its third anniversary. By then, I expect many of you to be under my shoe, once again, as God always has a way of blessing me, while punishing my enemies.

As the clock ticks, the set up is ripening. There has never been a time, in all of my years investing, that I have been 100% certain about my positioning. Needless to say, I am 10,000% (anything more than 100% is simply annoying, no?) certain, as I write this. Perhaps it can be chalked up to a disruptive mental disorder, one that I am unaware of. Or, I know exactly what I am doing and why.

As I close out this blog post, “The Fly” has great plans for himself and is plotting out another dramatic career move, as his evolution quickens. In case you are wondering, YES, he will leave you in the dust: but that’s because, to a large degree, you’re entirely wourthless [sic]. So sorry.

You didn’t think I could forget about today or this week and get drunk like the rest of you losers, did you? I have nothing to celebrate.

I am not going to give opinions in this post. Instead, I will offer up some statistical facts, for your perusal, and to confuse you a little bit.

Man, the dollar sucks. It’s getting fucking killed right? Over the past two weeks it’s down 4.21%. Whoa, holy fucknuts. Wait a second, year to date it’s only down a whopping 0.48%. Hmmm.

Next.

Gold is this years winner, up 18.05%. Hey, do you want to know the only asset class that is outperforming gold, aside from silver (+26%)? How about TLT? BINGO. Correct. TLT is up 18.38%, ytd.

Copper? Nah, only up 5.5%.

Financials? Up 1.88%

Oil? I mean, with the dollar tanking to the tune of 0.48% this year, oil must be up huge. Nope. Down 14.99%, which is leagues better than natty—down more than 36%.

How about SPY? Well, it’s up 9.4% over the past month, the biggest gain in 71 years. However, for the year, I’m afraid it’s barely up 4%.

Material stocks? +3.9%.

Do you get my drift?

We might spring board higher and close out the year with spectacular gains or reverse lower and clown rape everyone, including David Tepper (if I see you at Short Hills mall, you’re catching a pizza slice to the mustache). But it’s important to take a step back sometimes, block out the noise, and see what is really working here. It’s easy to get caught up in emotionally charged, catalyst driven markets. But, if you take a look at things from a longer time frame, the true trend crystallizes. Is money really fleeing the dollar because of inflation fears? If that was the case, wouldn’t it be down more, ytd? Gold is awesome, but so is LQD, JNK and TLT.

Investors have been chasing yield. Maybe that will change. Perhaps the economy will rebound and banks will soar 50% from here. However, we already had the monster run in 2009. That was the easy money, just like 2003. To me, I view 2010 like 2004, the year after the big rally. During 2004 and 2005, we pretty much traded flat, as the market consolidated its gains. Looking at the year to date stats, and blocking out the last two weeks, that’s exactly what we have been doing.

Just a little late night perspective for you dick sucking ball jugglers.

Okay, I don’t want to ruin your experience by revealing spoilers, so I will be vague with my review. All in all, it was a solid movie, with lots of high points. The movie is heavy on nostalgia, cliches and a bit preachy. Aside from Gekko’s daughter, the acting was solid across the board, especially the performance of Josh Brolin. Of course Gekko was good; but not as good as the original. You can only tolerate so many one liners, without thinking this man is a fortune cookie with legs and arms.

The plot was good, although scattered. Oliver Stone definitely missed out on a huge opportunity to nail a stake into the Wall Street elite. Instead of showing real, tangible, causalities of the credit crisis, they opted to gloss over it and show glamor. Go see the movie and we can talk more later.

As for this tape:

I am surprised we are not up 900 points today. To think we are up a mere 200 on absolutely no news is disheartening. Very nice, we live in a wonderful country. This is a short squeeze of epic proportions and I need to acknowledge some people who nailed this move. You know my style, piss on everyone else while touting my own grandeur. Well, I missed this move, for 3 weeks now. Instead of capturing easy money, I’ve fought hard to preserve. It’s a long story, my plight and all; and frankly, who gives a shit?

Spydercrusher, Ragin Cajun, Scott Bleier Jakegint, ChessnWine <—-These fuckers nailed this market. If you're not reading all of the bloggers on iBC, you are missing out.

Enough about them, let's talk about me again. I am two minutes from leaving the office. As it stands now, I am about 20% VXX, 14% TLT, 20% long, 5% short and about 41% cash. And, as you know, I am all in TZA in my personal aggressive accounts. It's a loser of a day; but I have immense staying power. For managed accounts, my beta is relatively low, so there is no panic. However, let's call a spade a spade, this fucking strategy has been bleeding for weeks. I can only take looking at the ship take on water for so long, before I am forced to buy a new boat.

Bottom line: I am not capitulating. Wall Street 2 is a solid production, albeit unrealistic. Congratulations to those of you who nailed this move.

I’m going to put aside my bias, since that is redundant and boring, and throw out a few names that are worth looking at.

Tech stocks are now being viewed as “imminent m&a” targets. The deal flow is plentiful and investors are positioning for more deals. Some potential take over plays, in the tech space, include: VCLK, ARMH, ATHR, CRNT, ADTN, CY, CRUS, MRVL, RAX etc. Frankly, there are a lot of names out there being talked about as takeover plays. Recently, my interests have been in the “rare earth” space, thanks to “The Devil.” As you know, this is an industry that is dominated by China. However, there are a few names that trade here, specifically MCP, REE, both worth a look.

Regardless of the market strength, I do not like the banks. I do not like how they are trading and definitely do not like their business models. So, forget about them.

If you need to be long, the industrials, chemicals and commodities are where it’s at. I am talking EMN, IR, MT, FCX, EMR, MTW (interesting and cheap) etc. The big cap, big business, multi-national names is where value can be found, as well as growth. Ideally, I’d like to buy these names on a pullback. I even went through the trouble of creating a Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) portfolio, inside The PPT. However, due to this gorilla run, I’ve been unable to allocate funds. I am stubborn like that.

All in all, today’s a big day, with near perfect breadth. Typically, the market is sort of boring from 10am-3pm, as the robots take siestas during those hours. So, if we are going to see a push higher from here, it will happen in the last hour of trade. In my opinion, if you missed this move, it’s sort of too late and pre-mature (if that makes any sense) to buy now. You are much better off stepping in around 2-3pm, if you are dying to get in.

Indeud. The markets are ripping tits this morning, in what can only be described as “fantastic shit.” We had some durable goods numbers that were worse than expected and then some fudge fund manager, David Tepper, came on the teevee and said “The Fed will not let the market go down.”

VOILA, PRESTO! S&P moves up 14 handles.

You have to love this sort of action, as it defies logic, not so much different  than the ancient ruins of Puma Punku. Now, if I was a betting man, I’d opt not to bet today. Instead, I’d smoke cigars and whistle at the pretty women passing by.  The NAZCRACK, shout out to Krull, is spinning higher, with shit like NFLX hitting new all time highs.

I piss on this market. I vomit on its face.

Folks, this is what happens when shorts eat pavement. They capitulate and markets rip.

Personally, you could not make me buy stocks, even by gunpoint. Granted, I would like to have more long exposure today, considering the melt up to be. However, I can’t buy into a +100 open.

“The Fly” will be watching movies and shit today, while checking in on his losing bets via his spectacular iPhone.

NOTE: A few interesting plays worth exploring: MCP, REE—both “rare earth” companies (whatever the fuck that means).

Anyone in the business of managing money knows what tomorrow is: Wall Street 2 Day. “The Fly” will be viewing the movie, during lunch time. So, don’t expect to see me much around these parts tomorrow. Don’t leave any bullshit comments on this blog, besmirching the movie, for it is a classic. I really don’t care if the sequel sucks cock. I will view it, nonetheless, as Gordon Gekko is Bossman King. I will be posting my review here, for all of you small plebs to read at your leisure.

On a separate note, it was written that the markets would tumble, just in time for the movie debut, based upon the belief that “it’s all Hollywood baby.”

We shall see.

I am jaded, totally biased against the market. I am not a technician, nor a fundamentalist. I am a hybrid investor, shout out to Scott Bleier.

This is how I see things.

The last few days have been failures for the bulls, because the onus is on them. Due to the bull mode we are in, it is their responsibility to keep the ball rolling. Over the last few days, as well as today, all rallies have been sold. As a matter of fact, they’ve been sold aggressively. I know the market can rip tits tomorrow, based upon some rumor that the Bush tax cuts will be extended. I mean, that would force me to cover all shorts immediately. However, barring that, the economy is still struggling to getting worse. Taxes are going up and there is a lot of funny shit happening in the world of currencies.

If I was super aggressive, I’d be shorting banks here, with impunity, while going long treasuries. As yields come down, so do the profit margins at the banks. Having said that, I’ve been buying ridiculous amounts of TLT today. I am looking for it to run past $110.

Ultimately, victory will be mine, as I am the only person I know who talks to urinal shadows and zips through space in a fucking space rocket. The rest of you are merely pedestrian. Always remember, while mocking Senor Tropicana: at the end of the battle, it will be your head on the pike, not mine.

As planned, I shorted another 2,000 AEM @ $70.45, leaving me with one more bullet in the chamber. I am not perturbed by the price action in AEM. I expected to be wrong on my initial trades, which is why I opted to allocated my trades over 5 unique price points. Jewelry consumption is NOT driving gold prices up. It’s all hedge fund bullshit, the easy come easy go money. At the first sign of weakness, those motherfuckers will take their money, run, and leave you  in the shark infested waters without your handy, dandy Teutonic knight style full body armor.

LLNW is screaming here, likely due to take over rumors, being the arch rival of AKAM. Other stocks like ANAD and AMD are running with equal energy, just not as high. Tech is where it’s at today, led by the crown jewel of American innovation, AAPL.  CRE is decidedly weak, as well as banks. But let’s not get it twisted: today is an awesome win for the bulls, fending off a head on assault by the “spastic palsies” (bears) this morning.

For what it’s worth, I am having a decent day, with gains in EWZ, VXX and  TZA. As you know, I’ve decided to allocate half of my cash (25% of assets) into TLT, based upon the win-win scenario produced by none other than The Federal Reserve aka “Clam Bank.” The Fed likes low yields and people buy long dated treasuries to store value. Like I said, win-win.

Into the bell, I expect more of the same. Then after that shit is done, more of that.