The Trillion Dollar Bet

For your Labor Day evening viewing pleasure.

Back with some ideas and analysis later tonight…

The Trillion Dollar Bet (2000) – A documentary about the demise of Long Term Capital Management.

Ramp Up Your Weekly Market Preparation

If you have not checked out the chessNwine Weekly Strategy Session service, this Labor Day is an excellent opportunity to do so.

Although this is a standalone service at iBankCoin, all 12631 Trading Service members receive the Weekly Strategy Session as part of their membership, at no additional charge.

In the Weekly Strategy Session, I cover:

  • My best long and short trading ideas for the week ahead
  • A brief recap of the prior week’s price action, with emphasis on market leaders/laggards
  • An assessment of current market psychology/sentiment
  • Emphasis on managing risk and all of the potential pitfalls relevant to the current market, such as navigating through earnings season
  • Objective technical analysis focusing on price, volume, moving averages, and candlestick theory
  • Contingency planning (Potential scenarios that, if they materialize, would necessitate a change in current market posture
  • Key price levels to watch on the major indices
  • My current market posture and how to best express that opinion through portfolio allocations and trading discipline

With a very reasonable price point of $9.95 per individual Weekly Strategy Session, $19.95 for a monthly membership, and $199.95 for an annual subscription, you now have a tremendous opportunity to take your weekly preparation as a trader up to the highest level.

PLEASE CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO MY WEEKLY STRATEGY SESSION

 

Sunday Matinee at Chess Cinemas

MV5BMTYyNDkwODc0NV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwMDY2NTM5._V1_SX214_AL_

Avalon (1990) is another very good Barry Levinson-directed film set in his hometown of Baltimore, Maryland. This one hits the right notes in terms of blending a family-centered melodrama with some comedy and romance.

Aidan Quinn, Elizabeth Perkins, Armin Mueller-Stahl, a young Elijah Wood, and Kevin Pollack highlight the solid cast.

From imdb:

A Polish-Jewish family arrives in the US at the beginning of the century and they and their children try to build themselves a better future in the promised land.

Grinding Out the Wins with a Winner {Reprise}

[This post was originally published on December 20th, 2011. Be sure to see the excellent video on poker at the bottom of the post, applicable to stock trading]

I recently learned about the death of Barry Tanenbaum. I assume you have never heard of him, as that is usually the case with even the most successful of “cash game” poker players (cash games, or “ring games,” as in playing for real money and risking your money you have in front of you via casino chips, instead of a fixed tournament structure with tournament chips). Barry was an old school Texas Limit Hold ‘em poker player, grinding out the profits year after year in Las Vegas, the city where so many celebrity/famous “tournament players” quickly ascend to fame, only to stumble over to successful cash game players to ask for money when they soon go broke. He had made some money early in his life in the pre-Sicilon Valley days in Cupertino, California, before moving to Vegas with his wife.

I played against Barry many times when I lived out in Vegas several years back, when he was a regular in the cash games around town. He was a fixture in the Bellagio poker room, $30/$60 Limit Hold ‘em game, where the average buy-in to sit down was about $1,000, and the volatility you endured as a player could be up to several thousand dollars per session. He was a very solid player and clearly a winner. Unlike many crybaby “pros” who berate bad players at the table when they lose a hand, Barry was a total pro, maintaing a sense of humor and not going on tilt, while keeping the bad players happy and playing longer, thus giving him an edge over the long run.

A few summers ago, during the hot cash game action that takes place when the World Series of Poker (“WSOP”) comes to town, Barry and I squared off in a $100/$200 limit hold ‘em game at the Bellagio which is, generally speaking, one of the bigger limit games you can find in any brick and mortar casino in Vegas or on the east coast.

I was honored to read him blog about a particular hand the next day, referring to me as an “excellent player.” It was rewarding for me to get that kind of respect from an older, accomplished player. The hand went exactly as he recalled, and I found it quite entertaining to experience and then read about the other two players in the hand.

Even if you are not a poker player, I still recommend watching the speech he gave in the video below. Mike “the mad genius of poker” Caro gave the introduction. 

Barry discusses patience and grinding out “one big bet per hour,” which means, as an example, earning $60 per hour in the $30/$60 Limit Hold ‘em game. The parallels to disciplined stock trading are plentiful.

Here is Barry’s blog post, told in first person, from July 2007 detailing a hand played against yours truly. The “UTG” player was actually a friend of mine and the “cute girl” was indeed a cute girl and very aggressive player. I included the other portion of his blog about those two after the hand that I was in, for entertainment value. Click here for the full post and his blog as well. (“UTG” refers to “under the gun,” the player at the poker table first to act in a Texas Hold’ em game, to the left of the small and big blind, “BB” refers to big blind, “JJ” refers to pocket Jacks, “late-middle” refers to my position at the table when I re-raised or “three bet,” as he says, with pocket kings before the flop).

I played some sessions of $100-$200 recently. With the WSOP in town, the game is better than usual.

Perhaps you would be interested in some laydowns I made. Here are a couple:

UTG (average player, not especially tight) raises. Excellent player three-bets from late middle. I have J-J in the BB and make a marginal call. Flop is 7-6-6. I check, UTG bets, good player calls, I call. Turn is a 7. UTG bets, good player raises, I fold. Probably should have folded earlier, but there it is. Oh, on the river, check-bet-call, good player shows down kings, and UTG confides to cute girl player on his left (these two will be back in this post) that he had J-J! At least I put in $400 less than he did.

They were not all laydowns. Here is a play I picked off because of table talk. I have the button and a new player posts. Everyone folds to the new player, who checks (though the book says raise). I have 9-7 and do not wish to get involved. so I fold. SB (guy on my left again) completes, and cute girl (who is wildly aggressive, and gets way too much respect from the others) raises. Poster calls. SB folds. Flop is something, She bets-he folds. Fine. But now guy on left says to girl, “Nice play. I was thinking of doing that.” She rewards him with Mona Lisa smile.

Here Comes Scary September

pictures_of_the_day_6

Consistent with how this bull market has unfolded, it would not surprise me in the least to see a melt-up even in the dreaded September/October part of the year.

Still, my book has a few individual shorts hedged up against some longs. And I am ready to adjust quickly, as is our reputation inside the 12631 Trading Service, to whichever surprise the market brings with it, scary or not. That said, if you click on this 12631 link, you can see that @RaginCajun and I closed out August with a string of nice winners.

Enjoy your long holiday weekend.

In the Count Room for This Sector

I am still honed in on the major casinos here, to see if the breakdowns are legitimate or instead simply another bear trap.

I suspect we will not get a clear answer until next week or mid-September.

However, seeing LVS WYNN take out yesterday’s lows has me sticking with my WYNN short.

I also believe the outcome of this setup, be it bear trap or the-real-deal breakdown, will offer valuable insight into the not just the health of Macau but also Las Vegas and indeed many consumers here in the U.S..

The Trillion Dollar Bet

For your Labor Day evening viewing pleasure.

Back with some ideas and analysis later tonight…

The Trillion Dollar Bet (2000) – A documentary about the demise of Long Term Capital Management.

Ramp Up Your Weekly Market Preparation

If you have not checked out the chessNwine Weekly Strategy Session service, this Labor Day is an excellent opportunity to do so.

Although this is a standalone service at iBankCoin, all 12631 Trading Service members receive the Weekly Strategy Session as part of their membership, at no additional charge.

In the Weekly Strategy Session, I cover:

  • My best long and short trading ideas for the week ahead
  • A brief recap of the prior week’s price action, with emphasis on market leaders/laggards
  • An assessment of current market psychology/sentiment
  • Emphasis on managing risk and all of the potential pitfalls relevant to the current market, such as navigating through earnings season
  • Objective technical analysis focusing on price, volume, moving averages, and candlestick theory
  • Contingency planning (Potential scenarios that, if they materialize, would necessitate a change in current market posture
  • Key price levels to watch on the major indices
  • My current market posture and how to best express that opinion through portfolio allocations and trading discipline

With a very reasonable price point of $9.95 per individual Weekly Strategy Session, $19.95 for a monthly membership, and $199.95 for an annual subscription, you now have a tremendous opportunity to take your weekly preparation as a trader up to the highest level.

PLEASE CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO MY WEEKLY STRATEGY SESSION

 

Sunday Matinee at Chess Cinemas

MV5BMTYyNDkwODc0NV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwMDY2NTM5._V1_SX214_AL_

Avalon (1990) is another very good Barry Levinson-directed film set in his hometown of Baltimore, Maryland. This one hits the right notes in terms of blending a family-centered melodrama with some comedy and romance.

Aidan Quinn, Elizabeth Perkins, Armin Mueller-Stahl, a young Elijah Wood, and Kevin Pollack highlight the solid cast.

From imdb:

A Polish-Jewish family arrives in the US at the beginning of the century and they and their children try to build themselves a better future in the promised land.

Grinding Out the Wins with a Winner {Reprise}

[This post was originally published on December 20th, 2011. Be sure to see the excellent video on poker at the bottom of the post, applicable to stock trading]

I recently learned about the death of Barry Tanenbaum. I assume you have never heard of him, as that is usually the case with even the most successful of “cash game” poker players (cash games, or “ring games,” as in playing for real money and risking your money you have in front of you via casino chips, instead of a fixed tournament structure with tournament chips). Barry was an old school Texas Limit Hold ‘em poker player, grinding out the profits year after year in Las Vegas, the city where so many celebrity/famous “tournament players” quickly ascend to fame, only to stumble over to successful cash game players to ask for money when they soon go broke. He had made some money early in his life in the pre-Sicilon Valley days in Cupertino, California, before moving to Vegas with his wife.

I played against Barry many times when I lived out in Vegas several years back, when he was a regular in the cash games around town. He was a fixture in the Bellagio poker room, $30/$60 Limit Hold ‘em game, where the average buy-in to sit down was about $1,000, and the volatility you endured as a player could be up to several thousand dollars per session. He was a very solid player and clearly a winner. Unlike many crybaby “pros” who berate bad players at the table when they lose a hand, Barry was a total pro, maintaing a sense of humor and not going on tilt, while keeping the bad players happy and playing longer, thus giving him an edge over the long run.

A few summers ago, during the hot cash game action that takes place when the World Series of Poker (“WSOP”) comes to town, Barry and I squared off in a $100/$200 limit hold ‘em game at the Bellagio which is, generally speaking, one of the bigger limit games you can find in any brick and mortar casino in Vegas or on the east coast.

I was honored to read him blog about a particular hand the next day, referring to me as an “excellent player.” It was rewarding for me to get that kind of respect from an older, accomplished player. The hand went exactly as he recalled, and I found it quite entertaining to experience and then read about the other two players in the hand.

Even if you are not a poker player, I still recommend watching the speech he gave in the video below. Mike “the mad genius of poker” Caro gave the introduction. 

Barry discusses patience and grinding out “one big bet per hour,” which means, as an example, earning $60 per hour in the $30/$60 Limit Hold ‘em game. The parallels to disciplined stock trading are plentiful.

Here is Barry’s blog post, told in first person, from July 2007 detailing a hand played against yours truly. The “UTG” player was actually a friend of mine and the “cute girl” was indeed a cute girl and very aggressive player. I included the other portion of his blog about those two after the hand that I was in, for entertainment value. Click here for the full post and his blog as well. (“UTG” refers to “under the gun,” the player at the poker table first to act in a Texas Hold’ em game, to the left of the small and big blind, “BB” refers to big blind, “JJ” refers to pocket Jacks, “late-middle” refers to my position at the table when I re-raised or “three bet,” as he says, with pocket kings before the flop).

I played some sessions of $100-$200 recently. With the WSOP in town, the game is better than usual.

Perhaps you would be interested in some laydowns I made. Here are a couple:

UTG (average player, not especially tight) raises. Excellent player three-bets from late middle. I have J-J in the BB and make a marginal call. Flop is 7-6-6. I check, UTG bets, good player calls, I call. Turn is a 7. UTG bets, good player raises, I fold. Probably should have folded earlier, but there it is. Oh, on the river, check-bet-call, good player shows down kings, and UTG confides to cute girl player on his left (these two will be back in this post) that he had J-J! At least I put in $400 less than he did.

They were not all laydowns. Here is a play I picked off because of table talk. I have the button and a new player posts. Everyone folds to the new player, who checks (though the book says raise). I have 9-7 and do not wish to get involved. so I fold. SB (guy on my left again) completes, and cute girl (who is wildly aggressive, and gets way too much respect from the others) raises. Poster calls. SB folds. Flop is something, She bets-he folds. Fine. But now guy on left says to girl, “Nice play. I was thinking of doing that.” She rewards him with Mona Lisa smile.

Here Comes Scary September

pictures_of_the_day_6

Consistent with how this bull market has unfolded, it would not surprise me in the least to see a melt-up even in the dreaded September/October part of the year.

Still, my book has a few individual shorts hedged up against some longs. And I am ready to adjust quickly, as is our reputation inside the 12631 Trading Service, to whichever surprise the market brings with it, scary or not. That said, if you click on this 12631 link, you can see that @RaginCajun and I closed out August with a string of nice winners.

Enjoy your long holiday weekend.

In the Count Room for This Sector

I am still honed in on the major casinos here, to see if the breakdowns are legitimate or instead simply another bear trap.

I suspect we will not get a clear answer until next week or mid-September.

However, seeing LVS WYNN take out yesterday’s lows has me sticking with my WYNN short.

I also believe the outcome of this setup, be it bear trap or the-real-deal breakdown, will offer valuable insight into the not just the health of Macau but also Las Vegas and indeed many consumers here in the U.S..