Fly Short: EXH

I sold short another 10,000 EXH.

Disclaimer: If you sell short EXH because of this post, XOM will buy the company out for a 300% premium. And, you may lose money.

Look at Morgan, ticker MS, and run for cover.

Rumors are swirling and doing so in grandiose fashion.

And I am not talking about the street vendors selling turtles. There is a widespread belief, amongst those with brains, that China is a house of cards, readying to implode. Chinese CDS have been blowing out and all stocks related to the land of accounting fraud have been beheaded. Now short sellers are simply pulling out the delicious (no Hannibal) entrails of big American industrial players who have exposure to China, Braveheart style.

Look at the coal sector: decapitation. Shares of ANR, JRCC, ACI, WLT-gone.

The metals are dead men walking: CLF, X, STLD, AKS, MT- laughable.

Retail: TIF, WYNN, LVS, YUM- splat.

Today’s big hits are in IR, FLS, MTW, PCX, ROC, CE, FLR, etc. I could go on.

So, what do we make of this? Do not look to America for guidance, as this country is filled with fucking idiots who would buy stocks on the day of a nuclear detonation over Los Angeles. If China is slowing significantly, there are zero chances for us to rally. Actually, it’s quite laughable that people are buying stocks today, with all of these potential headwinds.

With a Chinese slowdown, our S&P 500 will need to rely on domestic sales: ROFL. One could paint an argument for S&P falling to 600 under those circumstances, as EPS cuts will be far more insidious than any fucktard analyst is factoring in.

Nevertheless, it’s a slow Friday afternoon on the last day of the 3rd quarter, so anything can happen.

With my money, I remain on the sidelines, with a net short exposure. I cannot get bogged down in negativity because that’s a money loser. I am simply acknowledging these risks and keeping a keen eye on them. Why the fuck is TEX so cheap? It makes me wonder about the viability of these firms, under a draconian scenario playing out in China. Keep these things on your back-burner and trade accordingly.

We are entering the 4th quarter with style. The 3rd quarter sucked balls, marked with grotesque absurdities. Going into the month of October, I am on high alert for a “fuck you, you’re dead” rally. My beard is growing in thick and my rambo knife is sharp as shit. Just a little piece of advice, if you happen to see me in Target, or at the Short Hills Mall, don’t fuck with me. I am on edge.

European banks are getting obliterated, down 6% plus. On the final day of the 3rd quarter, expect wholesale liquidations, Ingersoll-Rand style. China is slowing and the wheels are about to come off of this car made from dynamite. Nevertheless, I am not adding to any shorts because we have asshole dip buyers galore in this country. We buy stocks for no reason at all, mainly due to our natural instincts to take on risk. America was built on risk and is now being buried in it.

In short, TLT is your tell and China is your catalyst.

Ever since May, the S&P has been down. With September’s 5.5% decline, followed by the 5.5% decline in August, we are now down for 5 consecutive months. The last time we had losing streaks like this was in 2002 and 2008 to 2009. In both cases, it led to a monstrous rally. Although I am bearish as a hairy human living alone in the woods, I need to be on guard (no Jerry) for an 8% rally in October.

The market has been grinding lower, led by the absolute destruction of basic materials, financials and tech shares. The leaders have been killed and people have pigeon holed themselves inside 80 year old man stocks. Coupled with the glaring fact that everyone is bearish, Zerohedge’s popularity is at an all-time high and I am 90% out of the market, something is astray, if I might so bold as to say so.

This just dawned on me, as I was doing some reading, thinking about the future. When thinking about stocks, I always lay out scenarios that might play out, then try to support them with historical precedence or hard facts.

The reality is, we are down 5 straight months and the news is as bad as it gets. Despite the bad news, we haven’t cracked lower. Instead, we are meandering around, grinding swing/momo traders into dust.

The real negative developments, aside from Europe, is the deterioration of China and the rise of Chinese CDS. What the fuck is that all about?

What to do, what to do?

We just went from -55 Nasdaq to -19 in a blink of an eye. The Dow was down 50, now +115. If you are day trading, this is fantastic. However, if you are a person of honor and dignity, this is an abomination.

If you try to position yourself for momentum, you will get smoked. The moves are so fast, so severe, you literally need to be insane to swing trade these ranges.

Once again, if you are a Vegas style degenerate day trader, in this game for a teeny, this is your dream come true. For the rest of us, top hatted gentlemen on Wall Street, this is disdainful.

I am emphatically on the sidelines, dreaming of black smoke, mixed with aerosol acid, to melt Wall Street down to the pavement.

On the bright side, financials and trannies were very strong today. Where this market goes tomorrow? I have no fucking idea.

“How did I prepare myself for the crash” will be your final words. In a few weeks from now, when the markets are significantly lower from today, you will remember the words of HORATIO CLAWHAMMER aka “The Fly” and regret heeding his warnings in favor of some dicksucker on Twitter. I have less than 10% long exposure, 20% short exposure and the rest cash. Perhaps today isn’t an optimal day for me, with regards to my position. However, the whole point of my position is preservation of capital. With that in mind, I’ve done my job.

All of the stocks I am short will crater, as sure as I am sitting here, especially EXH. These things take time to develop, something people will ADD are unable to comprehend. You’re much better off eating cantaloupes in Denver, than fucking around with me, betting against my winship.

Anything remotely related to China is getting poleaxed today. From the basic materials to high end retailers, it’s WHOOSH lower in dramatic fashion. Ten percent drops in TIF, on no news, is not normal. There are dislocations in this market. The whole matrix is fucked up and you are much better served waiting it out, than betting on Slovakia ratifying the ESFS package.

Forget about Greece and European debt issues. We’re past that and you don’t even know it. All eyes are on China, global growth and the liquidation of large hedge funds. How will the market absorb the wholesale liquidation of billion dollar funds, while the markets are going lower?

Answer: You get pinless hand grenade trading action, like WYNN, YOKU, COH and BIDU.

Look, all of this is child’s play for me. I am positioned to buy the margin liquidations of some of your best friends and family members. While Dad sells out of this positions, out of disgust, Le Fly will swoop in like a fucking golden falcon and take his shit. The whole point of being bearish, in my opinion, is to buy at lower prices. I do not covet the absolute destruction of my neighbor, just 30%.

Eventually, there will be a great buying opportunity. It’s just not here yet.

Fuck this market. Everyone is full of shit. You all have wild grandiose claims that amount to absolutely nothing. Most of these little trollops have less than 50k in the game, yet come here to iBC to school Fly. I’ve been throwing bowling balls at everyone of these finance blogger-fuckers for centuries. It’s always a mistake batting against Le Fly, for my fastball travels quickly and it is always aimed for your helmet.

My EXH short is one of the biggest winners of the day. Fuck you Mother Market, running sideways, with a pineapple up your ass. I have no interest to buy this piece of shit market. Everything is gonna get dick chopped, eventually. So if you’re buying now, you are simply playing a game of Russian roulette.

Copper, Silver, Gold, Oil: fuck them all.

We’re going under 1,000 on the S&P and there is nothing you or your stupid fucking friends can do about it.

UPDATE: I shorted EXH and bought ERY

If you already live in the hills, stay where you are. Everyone else, pack your shit and run out of your homes RIGHT NOW. This market is being liquidated by a hedge fund failure. Some loser who lost his mojo, most likely valued $5 billion+ in personal net worth, stopped giving a fuck about his AUM. As a result, his billion dollar hedge fund Red Sox’d itself this year.

2011 is one of the hardest trading years I’ve ever seen. Hell, I am +3% for the year, after racking up 60%+ gains for the past 3 years. Needless to say, if I am having a hard time trading this market, just imagine how my peers with small brains are doing. Ha, those fuckers are vomiting on themselves, as we speak, doing lines of blow off garbage cans.

Stoically, I remain 70% cash. However, my longs are getting shot in the face, namely WNR. And, my shorts are higher, EXH, LM, TROW, ERY, NTRS. It’s just one of those days. However, even with the sun, moon and stars aligning against me today, I am practically unch, due to my fantastically grande cash horde.

The market is lying to you. If you look at the Dow, then quickly look at your stocks, you will see I am correct. See, I am not buying WNR because the market is going to crash. It is going to be quite the spectacle, men running around on rooftops, diving off into the manholes below.

Let me show you something.
No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 AMD -10.89 4,380,000,000
2 FOSL -9.32 6,460,000,000
3 FAZ -8.34 1,209,974,941
4 FMCN -8.20 4,360,000,000
5 NFLX -8.13 11,820,000,000
6 YOKU -7.95 2,870,000,000
7 WYNN -7.88 18,240,000,000
8 SINA -7.66 6,430,000,000
9 EW -7.61 8,580,000,000
10 DVA -7.41 6,720,000,000
11 SCO -6.83 2,528,487,273
12 BIDU -6.20 46,650,000,000
13 LVS -5.98 33,380,000,000
14 SFY -5.69 1,270,000,000
15 TIF -5.67 9,130,000,000
16 MOS -5.46 32,440,000,000
17 SOHU -5.40 3,040,000,000
18 MPEL -5.04 6,680,000,000
19 COH -5.04 15,200,000,000
20 VRA -4.91 1,210,000,000
21 IVN -4.76 15,380,000,000
22 WNR -4.63 1,570,000,000
23 GMCR -4.57 15,110,000,000
24 CRR -4.47 3,330,000,000
25 PCLN -4.22 25,930,000,000
26 MAKO -4.17 1,450,000,000
27 HFC -3.84 7,590,000,000
28 PIR -3.78 1,280,000,000
29 YGE -3.74 1,010,000,000
30 WLT -3.60 5,200,000,000
31 EXPE -3.57 8,020,000,000
32 DECK -3.54 3,210,000,000
33 FNSR -3.54 1,510,000,000
34 YNDX -3.36 9,800,000,000
35 ACTG -3.32 1,670,000,000
36 TPX -3.32 3,910,000,000
37 CROX -3.27 2,430,000,000
38 EDU -3.26 4,160,000,000
39 CBS -3.25 15,550,000,000
40 AMRN -3.24 1,420,000,000
41 IMAX -3.21 1,140,000,000
42 FDO -3.04 5,890,000,000
43 NTES -2.91 6,230,000,000
44 SWKS -2.87 3,870,000,000
45 RL -2.83 12,400,000,000
46 IDCC -2.82 3,250,000,000
47 YUM -2.76 25,080,000,000
48 GTE -2.69 1,730,000,000
49 NXPI -2.68 4,270,000,000
50 ARIA -2.64 1,170,000,00

Does that look like an +200 day?

I spit on this market, with extreme disdain.

So the Germans are going to enslave themselves for the benefit of their cigarette smoking neighbors. Great. Okay, since that is settled, how’s the economy doing?

Hmmm.

Tread carefully.