And I am not talking about the street vendors selling turtles. There is a widespread belief, amongst those with brains, that China is a house of cards, readying to implode. Chinese CDS have been blowing out and all stocks related to the land of accounting fraud have been beheaded. Now short sellers are simply pulling out the delicious (no Hannibal) entrails of big American industrial players who have exposure to China, Braveheart style.
Look at the coal sector: decapitation. Shares of ANR, JRCC, ACI, WLT-gone.
The metals are dead men walking: CLF, X, STLD, AKS, MT- laughable.
Retail: TIF, WYNN, LVS, YUM- splat.
Today’s big hits are in IR, FLS, MTW, PCX, ROC, CE, FLR, etc. I could go on.
So, what do we make of this? Do not look to America for guidance, as this country is filled with fucking idiots who would buy stocks on the day of a nuclear detonation over Los Angeles. If China is slowing significantly, there are zero chances for us to rally. Actually, it’s quite laughable that people are buying stocks today, with all of these potential headwinds.
With a Chinese slowdown, our S&P 500 will need to rely on domestic sales: ROFL. One could paint an argument for S&P falling to 600 under those circumstances, as EPS cuts will be far more insidious than any fucktard analyst is factoring in.
Nevertheless, it’s a slow Friday afternoon on the last day of the 3rd quarter, so anything can happen.
With my money, I remain on the sidelines, with a net short exposure. I cannot get bogged down in negativity because that’s a money loser. I am simply acknowledging these risks and keeping a keen eye on them. Why the fuck is TEX so cheap? It makes me wonder about the viability of these firms, under a draconian scenario playing out in China. Keep these things on your back-burner and trade accordingly.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Probably the stewed dog
Fly
As of last week a buddy reckons that ore, coal and shit are still at decent demand levels.
However what they’re seeing is multiple bank names on letter of credit which means that side of the market has really tightened up.
More probably the dog shit.
When’s V.King back in the PG???
The Fly is God.
If Fly was God, I’d short the market. But here’s a newsflash, the world is not coming to an end.
Fly probs bitching on the chinese of the shit loads of cash I made off HRBN caused by the mass propaganda air waves of shorts who were deadwrong & gave me all their money, the deal is now set for the 29th, Congratz longs!
Egg Foo Young?
Mao Tse Tung’s corpse?
the chinese girl’s name is ‘some young chick’ …
Yes, it’s called “top down econmic governance.” It simply does not work.
Let me be the first to ask Thomas Friedman, long time admirer of the police state Chicoms —
How you like dem appers, Hans Brix??
________
Burning sino forest certs…..
No shit! The whole stinking Asia has a smell about it as soon as you get off the airplane. Not that it’s a bad place or anything. You gotta temper the non-PC remarks or you’re a racist ass.
Jimmy Chanos is the man!
Use of the word ‘draconian’ two days running!! Need to go long in whips and chains.
It’s the stupid fucking bots– just buying on algorythem screwing up our financial markets that should be based on fundamentals. Somebody needs to pull out their plugs.
How about a 1% tax on all stock and bond transactions? Then people would invest for the right reason.
Yeah, that’s just what we need right now… a curb on liquidity.
And where would that money go, pray tell?
Let me guess — Registered Democrat?
________
pizza for everyone. rof
1% is way too high. Maybe 1/1000th of that, it would be enough. I don’t think it would go to demo’s. That’s just speculation. I think it might make a few dollars stay put in good corporations.
What??
You need to read up on markets and finance. A liquid market is EVERY investors’ friend, both long and short term.
You realize that good liquidity accrues to valuation, don’t you?
That’s why public companies usually get higher valuations than their private counterparts.
______________
Disagree. Liquidity is good. But excessive liquidity also led to the housing bubble. Speculation run riot over fundamentals is bad. Trading bots making billions with high frequency trading is a sucking of $ from our financial markets. I don’t expect you to agree.
Whenever someone says EVERY, or even NEVER, I think they have to be wrong in some cases.
TRUE (usually)
“You need to read up on markets and finance.”
Ah Jake, you are back to your “if you were as smart as me you would agree with me” routine.
The posters are simply brainstorming ways to try and take the market back from the HFT’s with their microsecond arbitrage plays and the ETF’s and index funds automatically re-balancing, and to give the market back to human investors and traders.
There is a huge amplification effect happening with all these unsupervised bots that is screwing up orderly trading. It’s like a car without shock absorbers where every little bump on the road leads to wild bounces.
I don’t know enough about the internal mechanisms to make any kind of useful suggestion but something needs to be done to restore stock markets to their central role as facilitators for the larger economy. Right now they seem more like an irrelevant casino sideshow.
Perhaps a simple mechanism where a random delay is put on every order, something between 100 and 500 milliseconds say, to improve the efficiency of the market by ensuring all the bots have enough time to digest the latest data.
If China really is bracing for a hard landing as their yield curve inverts amidst tight lending conditions, I’m pondering if the velocity by which they would need to raise capital would put negative pressure on treasuries, overpowering the Fed’s goals. It becomes a capital versus funding conundrum like ’08 where creditors wouldn’t accept collateral for short term loans which, during a liquidity event, relegates all asset classes except cash.
If things were really slowing fast there why don’t they just lower reserve requirements and interest rates?
Because inflation hasn’t reversed there. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/inflation-cpi
Yeah and thats worked really well elsewhere
Funny how chinese are all frauds yet im up 300% over night with my HRBN calls
Are you really that fucking stupid? Great, you got lucky. Now fuck off.
Don’t forget about copper. It’s a Dr. you know
Yes.
Proctologist, in fact.
__________
lol, all I can say about China is what I have been saying since April 2009…”STUPID SHANGHAI COPPER BUBBLE”…me, the US Dollar and the Doctor are just kickin it today.
Nice plug TN.
Whoops, right near a Proctologist joke (tip of the hat conceals smile).
There’s a reason why things are compared in difficulty level to chineez (sic) bookkeeping.
China is def slowing down right now and the market is pricing in that scenario. However, there wont be a hard landing. If that is even a remote possibility, they will probably enact a 1-2 trillion stimulus plan and loosen lending a bit.
We know that their reserve is real and not due to accounting fraud.
they have a lot of cash, yes. but i really dont think that they do like our system as far doing stimulus and qe type of moves which have the aire of western style resolutions. their resolution is cash,and death. guys like ken lewis,loyd,jamie, paulson, giethner,,they would have a bullet too the head, while it was broadcast.
Sir Fly, have you seen the video of me, Hugh Hendry, traipsing around China like an Irishmen giddy on potato blight?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ektMQGbW3wk
You are quite correct, sir, something does smell bad in China, indeud.
sorry I just reposted this link didn’t see your post
Early 2009 – nice work Hugh
Hugh, perhaps you should go back and check on those buildings, three years later.
Dude
Look at your chart, it’s trending down.
Just m/m, but the trend has been rising since this time last year. They started tightening in the Fall of last year and it has yet to significantly slow inflation which makes me think that the effects may be more abrupt.
Compare the two charts: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/interest-rate
FXP / YANG
while i’m not unusually paranoid, the timing seems peculiar. i wonder what the agenda specifics are.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-30/baroin-schaueble-to-attend-berlin-currency-talks-oct-6.html
somebody said that they have cleaned off the plates,and are getting ready to go mint d-marks again.seems as though germany has other plans
China slow down/house of cards is not new news. Hugh and Chanos have been sayin it for a while now
I have been saying it longer and in greater detail then both of my boys.
Hugh doing the … Hugh
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-09-19/wall_street/30174730_1_low-interest-rates-china-chinese-demand
Hugh doing the … Hugh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ektMQGbW3wk
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-09-19/wall_street/30174730_1_low-interest-rates-china-chinese-demand
so a recession is essentially a given here, apparently, as the ECRI has officially predicted one.
and god only knows what the stock market is going to do…
but earnings aren’t going to fall as much as everybody thinks. 2008 was a unique instance in the history of business, and this won’t be like that, for a variety of reasons. Which, if I did not have a hangover on a biblical scale, I coudl elaborate on, perhaps later.
Any one going long into the weekend??
The Bernank will allow more erosion before QE3 and the Euros will have a weekly new program for saving the Euro but other than these two, what can stand in the way of recession or near recession from taking this market down more?
a recession is coming, going with the ECRI here, nothing can stop that, apparently.
the question becomes is it priced in…
(laughter) I was thinking of using him in my post today, as opposed to Musgrove, but decided American Western beats U.K. bandit.
something smells fishy in new york. does anyone hear that radiohead is gonna show up today @ occupy wall street. 1968 all over again,it’s a trick.DONT GO!!
I rold you I ras no wonger going to buy your stupid ramerican goods. That smell Fly is my neighbor Mr. Wong – he rikes your ramerican burritos from Chipolte, but it rives him rery bad gas.
I keep looking at FXP and RUSS and TVIX charts – I never pulled the trigger because when I noticed the outperformance I kept thinking it was about over but they keep hanging in there. Next down day I will nibble and then it will be over – never fails.
Shippers being tossed into toilet.
On a side note: Is PRGN going bust? Chart is just awful.
I was looking at some of your content on this site and I conceive this web site is real informative ! Keep posting .
Hi there, I discovered your site by the use of Google while searching for a comparable subject, your website got here up, it seems to be good. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.