Insane S&P Losing Streak
Ever since May, the S&P has been down. With September’s 5.5% decline, followed by the 5.5% decline in August, we are now down for 5 consecutive months. The last time we had losing streaks like this was in 2002 and 2008 to 2009. In both cases, it led to a monstrous rally. Although I am bearish as a hairy human living alone in the woods, I need to be on guard (no Jerry) for an 8% rally in October.
The market has been grinding lower, led by the absolute destruction of basic materials, financials and tech shares. The leaders have been killed and people have pigeon holed themselves inside 80 year old man stocks. Coupled with the glaring fact that everyone is bearish, Zerohedge’s popularity is at an all-time high and I am 90% out of the market, something is astray, if I might so bold as to say so.
This just dawned on me, as I was doing some reading, thinking about the future. When thinking about stocks, I always lay out scenarios that might play out, then try to support them with historical precedence or hard facts.
The reality is, we are down 5 straight months and the news is as bad as it gets. Despite the bad news, we haven’t cracked lower. Instead, we are meandering around, grinding swing/momo traders into dust.
The real negative developments, aside from Europe, is the deterioration of China and the rise of Chinese CDS. What the fuck is that all about?
What to do, what to do?
133 Responses to Insane S&P Losing Streak
The Fly is God.
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Yes, I like the 8% Oct. rally. That’s what Bleier’s been calling all year n’est-ce pas? Then I see Monsieur, Wood, and Bleier (with yesterday’s post on the historical stats. of compressed volatility leading to a crash) all thinking there’s the possibility of more steps down.
I’m still holding long as I’m a divy investor with my own strategy, but nearly shaved off some meat today in order to be well fed for Thanksgiving.
This market will not set a solid floor unless we have a wash out. It might happen sooner than you think. Today market was all scizophrenic, gold oil, stocks, copper and silver were up and VIX was not down by much.
It tells me that the core is rotten
I agree entirely.. although the misanthrope bearshitter within is pining for an epic crash, sentiment is at horrible levels. This coupled with the fact that everyone and their constipated grandmothers is looking for a crash in October makes me quite wary of an epic contrarian rally.. such is the quandary..
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What’s next is that the President and Congress bury the hatchet, and the CFTC and SEC and DOJ come down *hard* on coding errors and outright fraud / theft in high-frequency trading.
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Time to stop fighting it and go with the trend till it cracks lower enough to remove further downside risk…
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LOL. What trend?
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The trend of the market is sideways. Tisker, how are you following that?
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True 
– more or less the trend is PAIN, and I’m generally following it in cash and a few high dividends witch are sucking wind… Offset by fading any of the rallies more recently.
Sideways channel trend nice to trade until it is violated naturally.
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Trend? We’re about as sideways as an Asian vagina.
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I need to find one and see if it is really sideways, how much is it going to cost me ???
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Short BAC to a very low amount(1 ish). I AM Middle America and the talk is intense. A very heavy percentage of folks are moving to credit unions. You have been warned.
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And they’re charging $5/mos for your debit card now after giving them away for years…sounds like the strategy of a crack dealer, but they would be arrested.
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This time there is a november defecit cut deadline looming and that is going to put a ceiling on the market
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who the hell cares about a ceiling. i want a floor!
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interesting thesis Monsieur. the contrarian bet would certainly be to go long here, but as mentioned above there IS much noise in the system.
do you think weakness in the TLT would be a tell for the 8% move?
the way this market has been swining, it certainly would be speed chopping.
cant wait to see what would support the thesis.
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Yeah, folks can’t be happy about having their bank charge them a $5 a month debit card fee when they can find another bank that doesn’t. I’ve read that it’s the biggest bank by deposits. Maybe not for much longer. They may end up going the way of Netflix.
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Was replying to the BAC comment.
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Well, it’s pretty well documented that China has developed a shadow banking system that has gone around all the attempts of the govt to regulate and cool off the hot money. That is what the CDS is registering, as the economy cools and it’s clear that the real-estate players and banks there are sitting on entire cities that are rotting, the wheels are starting to come off. I know you talk to Hugh Hendry–and you know that that’s his #1 bet: “Confucius say: you shall not invest in overcapacity.”
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Spooky,
China has build overcapacity to be able to build overcapacity. That’s my hypothesis. Demand is double goosed so will collapse. 47% of world steel capacity and 4 times USA. Germany industrial production demand also goosed to build over capacity in China. Confucius was an optimist.
While everyone has been detracted by the shit in the EU, China has been falling the fuck apart. Typical, mass distraction.
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Fly,
The reason we stalled out this week appears to be primarily based on Hedge Fund redemptions. Precious metals sell off, tech stock weakness, Euro strength and stock market up. This sounds like the exact opposite of the average funds positions. I think we see another day of this scatter brained sht tomorrow as they finalize the month end redemptions then its bite on a stick time on Monday. Feels like good old fashioned rubber glove treatment is coming.
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I enjoy your writing style – very funny and I share your sentiments.
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What to do, what to do? Do the Hugh!
July 7, 2011: Le Fly quoth The Bottom Is Going to Drop Out” and Hugh hisself sayeth “Once again the music has started, and it’s time to do the ‘Hugh’”
And indeud it was. Since then, TLT +24%.
If only it were as easy as it looks in hindsight to set it and forget it way back then, and stop trading. Just that one position. So simple. So unglamorous. So phlegmatic.
A man may know the right course and still fail to follow it…and I’m no exception.
“Just sayin’.”
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Your leadership is confusing the FUCK out of me, and tampering with my convictions..
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Vegas
Just in case you are retarded, I have no convictions, which is why I am cash.
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Lmfao!! I’ll be re-joining shortly..
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Monster rally to make a positive month?
I see the monster in my closet.
But from where to where?
Could be 990 to 1150,
Could be 1140 to 1300.
But we do now if this 8% monster comes,
the VIX monster must die.
That is where to play it.
I’m a c**t hair away from joining the PPT again.. I KNOW you don’t need my business, but please, adhere to 110% conviction within yourself.. NO fucking way we rally for the month of Oct…
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You can say caat here. It’s a safe environment.
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“What to do, what to do?”
… do the Hugh.
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Vegas,
If anything, its been fun betting on TNA/TZA via PPT. SHOMP has been very very profitable if you are a gambling man…..Off to pick up my new S63…..
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I’m vested in TZA at the very moment..
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What to do indeed!
I am not a day trader but love this site for insights into the market movements. Have been sitting in those “old man” stocks since 2005 and only bought the dip in the 2009 crash. Waiting for the next dip below 2009 levels to buy again. Not a believer in Armageddon but stock can trade there and will when China pull back frightens the punters.
Now there’s a good strategy…two thumbs up.
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I bought then also, and am still holding.
The shit that I bought (every sector) is down 30% to 70% from their 2010 highs.
You not only have to BUY right, you have to sell right.
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Yeah, I’m terrible at selling.
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There is a lot of bad news baked in… Maybe we rally to the end of the year.. Then take the root
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Earnings season is around the corner so that could be a positive catalyst to move us higher. It feels like the market has PTSD after the cocaine induced high of POMO wore off.
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Down 3% or more tomorrow followed by a horrific first week of October…and then a rally into year end lead by financials.
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There will be at least two more legs down before a bottom, the only thing that will move this mkt is new leadership in washington. or QE. leaders today got sonny bono’d. knee deep in blood coming soon
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I created some “chart art” to illustrate that bullish bulkowski “big w” pattern in the SPY daily chart.
Yes, its a real pattern
http://thepatternsite.com/bigw.html
The downtrend line needs to break to confirm that pattern.
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The question is: are people (other than you) positioned as bearishly as they talk (or write). If they are, then yes, a rally is probably in the cards. I’m just not sure if they are.
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Fly-
How do I renew my subscription to the PPT?
You click on the link at the top of page.
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Not quite, I believe it’s a wordpress issue. I attempt to re-register and I’m told my email address is already in use.
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You and all of your fucking brilliance might want to fucking check into it.
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Do you talk to your mother with that mouth?
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Do you tweet your mother with that keyboard ?
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ROFL
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End of quarter SHOMP should rally 200 points tmrw on lower volume. Rally today from 1133 ES to present was a fuck you you’re dead shorts for at least the next 7 hours. Most shorts are pussies that cannot see the forest thru the trees. Whatevas
ANother caddy marg please
-futs
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it better be 200 points or else …
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LMAO @ barry!
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Dick Morris? I thought he moved to Romania?
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:clapping:
nah he just moved over the tim knights blog rofl
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Fly I agree, China is a huge issue. The country is facing inflation issues as well as indebted local governments. The government has made it clear that its objective is to curtail inflation and keep control on its rapidly expanding economy. With this explosive growth in the number of higher paying jobs, infrastructure and the overall economy the Chinese government will likely be able to afford and manage its current debt obligations as opposed to many of the European countries.
Many European nations are facing gigantic economic, social and political reasons for obvious reasons. From your postings and trades it is understood that you are a short-term trader and may not be concerned as much about a time horizon of 2 – 3 years or longer. Granted it would be interesting to hear what you and others think about my general outline on the United States current position.
Through the lobbying of the government free trade based on cheap oil has taken over. Companies such as GM have changed from GM USA to GM World. It is clear that the workers in emerging economies have wages that most in developed countries cannot even begin to understand. The drive and determination of many of the workers is akin to the aggressive enterprising attitude of many of immigrants coming into the United States in the earlier part of the 1930′s.
With lower wages and a currency that has been artificially depressed the manufacturing base of America continues to be stripped away. The cooperative American government has sided with corporate interests and has effectively been taking out the legs of one of the greatest economies ever. At the same time more and more students go to college to get a degree which provides a set of skills that are largely service related.
Going forward, as the demographics of the United States starts to tip the scale towards an older population, pensions, medicare, medicad, as well as infrastructure needed to sustain the country’s economy has to be balanced on a budget that is already out of control (California, Illinois, New York). The country will be left with thousands of people that will expect the standards of living of their parents and will attempt to service others who are servicing them in a 360 loop. In this scenario no one actually is creating anything except more consumption and more debt, all on a wage that is way above a globally competitive level.
On the more optimistic side, corporations due to fear and uncertainty of the market have increased their balance sheets to hold gigantic cash positions. Housing prices are severely depressed from their highs which were evaluated on unprecedented low interest rates. Eventually the market will stabilize a decrease in supply of housing will regrow household equity and the release of cash from corporations will grow the economy again. The end of this world super-cycle will give birth to a new one, where technology allows few to produce for many, where the majority will be directed by few.
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Immigrants to US in the early 1930s? I think your history is unreliable, and hence your conclusions.
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Mistype. I meant the 1900′s. http://web.mit.edu/cis/images/fpi/immigration/fig1.jpg
If you have a moment, please explain your line of thinking.
Thanks!
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I agree the budget is out of control. Spending on ridiculous programs has to be eliminated. Streamline the tax system, realize you get more tax revenue from a rational and simple system, not higher tax rates. The aim should be to maximize tax revenue, not someone’s idea of fairness. A healthy economy will create the most tax revenue.
Corporations are hoarding cash because they are afraid of big government and avoiding taxation. We have to stop demonizing our bankers, support our economic drivers, and quit hating capitalism. Continued growth of the government sector will not help the economy.
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We need a 110% tax on ALL income above $250K, regardless of source. This includes
muni bonds and capital gains.
That stops the globalist bullshit, and gets
our wage disparity down.
You think that people should go into their savings to pay taxes?
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Some very good points….. unfortunately the US education system has failed us at the very time where it is needed most. Creativity is gone. Math skills unheard of. I am from Canada but what has happened in North America is we are fat and lazy. We feel self entitled. We aren’t willing to work hard enough to compete. It was fine when we still had the bank roll or the leverage to be lazy but that time is over. Now is the time where we have to realize that the North American lifestyle is changing. We are not going to enjoy the same quality of life of our parents…… although I hope they get what they deserve too via Social Security.
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lol, China’s implosion is years away. confucius should be saying you can only worry about one thing, which is why you should worry about what is happening at home in response to the EUR. If the rate is cut the dollar soars and so does the market. in fact the dollar will rise in any case since other safe havens are overpriced — this market is going up
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You have to worry about as many things as you need to worry about. Nothing exists in a vacuum.
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I don’t have much to add; I simply agree that we need to see more capitulation. Or at least I’d like to see more in order to make me feel better about going long for more than two days at a time. In the meantime, I will stay net short with longer dated puts.
We’ll have a rally soon enough that will have the talking heads proclaiming a bull market to the masses. That’s the move, and it’s subsequent top, that I really want to catch. Or screw it, maybe something happens in five minutes that entirely changes my outlook. I’ll just roll with it.
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2002, 2008, and 2009 — in each case we were saved by large amounts of money from either the Fed or the government, or both.
I’m not sure if we’re going to get that this time around…
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From what I can see this time around, the central banks are selling treasuries like crazy over the past month or so. Heck, maybe they need to raise cash for bailouts, but I find it interesting that treasuries really haven’t reacted badly, even with folks rushing into them.
I’m not entirely sure what to make of it, but I’m watching out for a breakdown of any tidy relationship between treasuries and equities. In other words, you might see treasuries and stocks decline together for awhile instead of moving inversely.
Anyway, just looking out for the fuckery. Lots of people are looking to go dump treasuries and buy some stock.
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Deep thoughts from Pippa Malmgren, former member of the (other) PPT. Coming down hard on the side of no euro rescue. Even the mere risk that she’s right about a simultaneous multiple-country sovereign default being in the offing will be sufficient to keep the fire burning bright under gold, the dollar and TLT (which, in a rational world, would make no sense at all). But as the Fly says, you can’t choose your reality, and this ain’t no rational world. Should her scenario happen, it’s gonna be fireworks, with Hugh riding over the crushed and mangled corpses of the unbelievers in a long black Rolls while smoking a 10-foot cigar.
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Hey Thanks for that link!
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Her transparency and candor is fantastic.
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I’m long SSO and AAPL and MPET. We are setting up for a perfect wall of worry rally. I will ride it out for awhile.
I believe we are seeing the dynamics of what happens when the majority of the daily volume is day trading or equivalent. But then again, that just means more will get wiped out quicker and the crowd will thin. Survival of the fittest. These are my thoughts as the moonlight gleams off the razor wire here in Angola.
fucking Angola?
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Well, shipwrecked could be on St. Helena. If that is too congested, try Tristan da Cunha which would not be the place to have a medical emergency, but might be a good location to sit out the “end game”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Helena
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Helena,_Ascension_and_Tristan_da_Cunha
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http://www.spacex.com/npc-luncheon-elon-musk.php
Watch this video. A fully reusable launch architecture (has never been done) will drop launch costs by about 100 times vs. current expendable systems. The impact over the next 10-20 years will shift everything (including global finance) in ways that most people cannot now imagine or comprehend. When SpaceX ipo’s, I will shift at least half of my loot into it.
Watch this now, let it percolate in your subconcious.
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http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/301817-1
Video of today’s lunch with Elon Musk (CEO of SpaceX).
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Do you have a Tesla Model S on order?
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Not yet. I’ll buy one in 2013 once the bugs are worked out. But I do own Tesla shares (since $17 and expect them to do well going forward on a timescale beyond what most “traders” on this site would appreciate).
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Either your investment goes to zero or become the next trillionaire. Put it all on black!
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http://news.discovery.com/earth/afghanistans-treasure-trove-110929.html
Simply shocking. Yeah right.
p.s. Good Grief.
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I KNEW IT…China Final HSBC PMI was above the flash. Total leak in the last hours. So fucked up, but hey Shanghai Comp still down going into their Vacation.
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wtf is up with hong kong? someone made some phony chop suey and a bad eggroll. not a lookin so good.
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Typhoon…they had to close the market yesterday.
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thnxs nymph. i was gettin all paranoid.
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Blue, They are screwed too, of course. Nobody wants to stay long going into the National Day Holiday week.
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apparently they need some OP action. strictly digestable only but the sober trip is not workin.
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It is usually darkest just before dawn.
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Also darkest when thieves get their sneak on.
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IMHO, we could get a lame oversold rally after the panic hits the market when China comes back the second week of Oct and there is no restocking. But, as I have been saying for awhile, Feb was the top for LME Copper, (FAZ had bottomed at that time too).Me and Dr Copper are hanging out riding this bubble down…With US Dollar as my sidekick. BTW, does anyone want to play with the Clam’s Spine, I am getting bored with it.
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bearded clams have vertabrae. whipped out like tofu. taste like nothing but hurt like poison when forced too gorge. its comin. but maybe after the starvin african bus ridin amerika trade has imploded.
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Clam lost his spine many months ago.
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faith is a mythical being of nonsense. but i just dont see the bondholders folding right here. the music will start again soon.
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Clam didn’t lose his spine. He’s totally saying I did my thing I did my clam thing, you fuckers (Congress, President) haven’t done jack shat.
I respect him for that. (personally didn’t think the keynesian money flooding would wake up the dying beast) He has spine just using it now to point fingers at the other guy
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know what youre saying though…. the numbers+economics ultimately determine ultimate direction ultimately
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but it just takes time.
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Change your icon for fuck’s sake.
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Change your icon fer fuck’s sake.
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Fly
Feel your pain. My bond trader friend always reminds me that historical trading patterns are pretty much useless in this market because we haven’t seen anything this bad since the GD.
I have yet to see any capitulation to the downside.
Until I do I see no reason to be bullish. This market is a mess. Zero confidence and the trading robots are only making it worse.
My cash position is similiar to yours and I remain hedged short
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Why is it that China gets official holidays that last more than one day, and we can’t do that?
Also, just got around to watching Wall St. II…that movie sucked.
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Greed is good
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Because they don’t get to have any civil rights.
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LOL @ Wilmer.
“Bread and Circuses” is the short answer. The longer answer would be found within Gibbon’s greatest work.
Highly recommended, and it will grip you from the first paragraph (available if you click the “Look Inside!” function to the left here).
_________________
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Interesting link Jake.
I tend to find Churchill’s “The History of the English Speaking People” more on point.
Though the history of “Barbarians”, I mean non-Romance speaking white folk, fails to move or convince most 19th century emigree’s descendants.
Perhaps it lacks “the sizzle/sexiness/spice” of suffocating, inane gesticulation that is the “romance” experience.
When it comes white-coats and testing hypothesis, I find few Americans with a diction or vocabulary for such and such.
Perhaps I’ll tackle this 18th century Englishman’s tome someday. Thx.
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For those holding their WNR:
Western Refining, Inc (NYSE: WNR) named Aggressive Growth stock of the day at Zacks.
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That, TC, is the absolute kiss of death.
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Zacks also holds positions in WNR
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I am still barely holding my WNR, but having difficulties due to shrinkage.(Two-finger pinch).
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1300lbs leg press
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$dxy just put in a daily cycle low….coming out of its 3 YEAR CYCLE LOW – now looking at at least 3 more daily cycles ( 18-25 days each) – keeping U.S dollar strength right thru Oct…and early Nov.
The current co relation of stocks down / dollar up has never been stronger….short of 2008 dollar rebound.
I trade currencies only…so…..as it stands….buckle up stock traders….we are going SIZEABLY LOWER.
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You sound like Gary Savage. Are you a sub over there?
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No chance for dollar rally and stock rally, as used to be the case…and why not?
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The latest from the Shaved Down Dog.
Now, with rare photos of Mr. Bilderberg’s prized hound!
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Is this a personal inquiry?.I can’t tell how this blog works in that…I don’t want to bother/bore people with idle convo.
I know currency like the back o my hand…and love reading here at IBC to get the ‘stock angle’ – I trade full time – 3 years now…living on a beach on Mayan Riviera – .love this blog.
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This blog is like interactive teevee.
Not only do you get to watch but it also talks back to you.
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Nice, whereabouts in the Mayan Riv are you staying, riser?
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Whoever was liquidating yesterday does not seem finished. High flyers getting punched in the gut again.
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Back in 2008 the unwind of the carry trade involved the YEN as funding currency – then being bought back in times of fear.
Now….as rates have been so low in the U.S -we likely see unwind of Carry….with U.S DOLLAR being bought back!
CHF has put a floor in what they will tolerate for currency appreciation….and JPY is at the brink.
There is only one currency (still considered `safe haven`)to benefit sizeably (fuck spelling) ie……the good ol U.S Buk.
Stocks are stocks….but currencies move far slower….and tell of much larger change and global implications.
Suggestion of slow down in China coupled with EU fuk zone…..and pending US recession says `sell commod currencies`..ie…AUD NZD CAD – and get into safe haven – only U.S left.
I`ve been fat fat fat in this trade for weeks….with lots of room left for US up…Commods down.
And a wopper….check out GBP/NZD – in for 1000 pips….with like….1000′s to go..just turned around now!
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All economic data slightly better than expectations this morning. Early prediction is that the market grinds higher all day to close at close to break even or higher!
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If i am wrong I will not vow to suck my own cock!
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Playa Del Carmen is home base….but I spend considerable time south in Akumal/ Mahual /Xcalak diving etc…….
ha! – Calgary G! – I was born in Edmonton!
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One trip down Calle Cinco was enough for me,but I loved the Yucatan in general.Great people.
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Warren Buffett says we are coming out of recession.
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Mr. Buffet’s DC driven rhetoric is for personal gain.
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Warren Buffet is a paid puppet who ( in god knows what way) still appeals to some demographic of the general investing populus of America ( duh…..old stupid fuks who still believe the dream bullshit ) – this guy has been treading water for last few years, and is more or less hored out to the media to instill some kind of confidence in this rat hole.
He is a ‘contrarian indicator’ without question…and bops around the telly like a paid actor….and a shitty one at that.
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Agree about Buffet. Same goes for 99% of anyone on the TV, for that matter. Turn the fucking thing off and follow the Bank of International Settlements and the weekly COT report, instead.
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Funny, I was thinking the same exact things this morning. End of shitty quarter so we will likely explode to the upside on Monday and after.
The down market is because of the technicals on the major indexes. SP500 dipped below support and looks like it could go either way at this point. We are at a crossroads so I am waiting for the trend confirmation.
The recent volatility also reflects a trend change is coming.
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I don’t get much America TV here – and Im glad….
Trend is down man….down..and more down….as per “global fuckin slow down pricing in no?” – hello??…..copper?…FCX??
Man….even chart wise…..check out $tran and qqq’s///testing bottom of ol bear flag crap….failing.
Hope is stupid..and has no place in trading…..trade what you see….
Wait…I see it…I can see it now….is it…is it what I think it is????….
Ya! – A big fuckin red candle!! – Oh…and another one too!! – Wow! – who’d a thunk it!
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WTF TD Ameritrade system is unavailable??
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I actually love it!
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Just wanna remark on few common things, The web site style is ideal, the topic matter is rattling good
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