EXTREME WEAKNESS, Just Beneath the Surface

The market is lying to you. If you look at the Dow, then quickly look at your stocks, you will see I am correct. See, I am not buying WNR because the market is going to crash. It is going to be quite the spectacle, men running around on rooftops, diving off into the manholes below.

Let me show you something.
No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 AMD -10.89 4,380,000,000
2 FOSL -9.32 6,460,000,000
3 FAZ -8.34 1,209,974,941
4 FMCN -8.20 4,360,000,000
5 NFLX -8.13 11,820,000,000
6 YOKU -7.95 2,870,000,000
7 WYNN -7.88 18,240,000,000
8 SINA -7.66 6,430,000,000
9 EW -7.61 8,580,000,000
10 DVA -7.41 6,720,000,000
11 SCO -6.83 2,528,487,273
12 BIDU -6.20 46,650,000,000
13 LVS -5.98 33,380,000,000
14 SFY -5.69 1,270,000,000
15 TIF -5.67 9,130,000,000
16 MOS -5.46 32,440,000,000
17 SOHU -5.40 3,040,000,000
18 MPEL -5.04 6,680,000,000
19 COH -5.04 15,200,000,000
20 VRA -4.91 1,210,000,000
21 IVN -4.76 15,380,000,000
22 WNR -4.63 1,570,000,000
23 GMCR -4.57 15,110,000,000
24 CRR -4.47 3,330,000,000
25 PCLN -4.22 25,930,000,000
26 MAKO -4.17 1,450,000,000
27 HFC -3.84 7,590,000,000
28 PIR -3.78 1,280,000,000
29 YGE -3.74 1,010,000,000
30 WLT -3.60 5,200,000,000
31 EXPE -3.57 8,020,000,000
32 DECK -3.54 3,210,000,000
33 FNSR -3.54 1,510,000,000
34 YNDX -3.36 9,800,000,000
35 ACTG -3.32 1,670,000,000
36 TPX -3.32 3,910,000,000
37 CROX -3.27 2,430,000,000
38 EDU -3.26 4,160,000,000
39 CBS -3.25 15,550,000,000
40 AMRN -3.24 1,420,000,000
41 IMAX -3.21 1,140,000,000
42 FDO -3.04 5,890,000,000
43 NTES -2.91 6,230,000,000
44 SWKS -2.87 3,870,000,000
45 RL -2.83 12,400,000,000
46 IDCC -2.82 3,250,000,000
47 YUM -2.76 25,080,000,000
48 GTE -2.69 1,730,000,000
49 NXPI -2.68 4,270,000,000
50 ARIA -2.64 1,170,000,00

Does that look like an +200 day?

I spit on this market, with extreme disdain.

So the Germans are going to enslave themselves for the benefit of their cigarette smoking neighbors. Great. Okay, since that is settled, how’s the economy doing?

Hmmm.

Tread carefully.

They are readying to go “all in”, buying out all of Europe’s debt in order to ship a few BMW’s to China. Plus, the Greeks need to unwind a bit. This whole austerity shit has them stressed.

Crazy pipe guy, Head Strudel Gobbler, Germany

Title: “They call me Dr. Copper”
Artist: HORATIO CLAWHAMMER
Auction House: Sothebys
Date: 9/30/11
Time: 11:59pm
Starting Bid: $99,000

I am very busy now, as I prepare to buy all of your margin liquidations. Today marked the wholesale liquidation of metals and basic material stocks. For those who adhere to the irrefutable laws of mathematics via buying TZA or ERY yesterday, I tip my hat to you, while counting my wins in ERY.

More on this later.

UPDATE: This guy is THE ULTIMATE BEARSHITTER. ROFL
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE 603 500]

First, anyone who says “part deaux” should be fired upon on spot. “The Fly” doesn’t make believe he speaks French, despite being a household name in Bordeaux, known as the invulnerable Le Fly.

I want you to get your heads out from the asses of German finance ministers. Look around and see the vices tightening. Interest rates are at record levels, yet credit is tight. Well, guess what, shit is about to get tighter, as the housing meltdown in America dumps bricks onto the balance sheets of your favorite banks. Add onto that, Europe is shut down. Nothing is getting out and soon enough you’re not gonna be able to go in.

I view this market like the tab attached to a pepsi can. You keep turning that fucker back and forth and eventually it’s gonna fall off. By the time the market bottoms, Rick Ross is gonna look like Eddie Murphy, famished from the great credit crisis, part two.

The obvious thing to do is sell short banks; but it gets better. In a tight credit environment, any company saddled with debt, maturing near term, will either fold tent or dilute the fuck out of shareholders. Think of FTK back in 2007 when it was trading at $20. Sure, I picked the bones off that company, buying in the $1-2 range. But they got lucky. This time around, the credit crisis is for keeps. Companies like EXH will need to sell their souls to the devil, or do PIPES, to raise cash.

Providing you can withstand the overwhelming volatility of this market, there is a great deal of money to be made as the crisis goes from 2nd to 9th inning.

NOTE: One of the side effects of hedge fund liquidations is monstrous drops in commodities and commodity related shares, since those fucktards are overweight the sector. I added to my ERY position earlier today.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5VxvF7DaCw 603 500]

SHOMP

It’s taking a lot of discipline on my part to avoid shorting more. The breadth is for shit and we’re way ahead of ourselves, going parabolic into a grinding economy. Nevertheless, the German slaves will be casting a vote tomorrow on the ESFS deal. There are too many moving parts for me to even begin to discern. Let’s put this into context, shall we?

Let’s say Europe passes the ESFS and German slaves agree to fleece themselves for the degenerates on the beach in Italy and Greece. We will likely have a nice Liberace styled rally, with bulls wearing diamond rings while placing buy orders. Cocaine and caviar will flood the boardrooms, as is customary in every brokerage firm west of Brooklyn. Things will appear to be normal, until the fucking clawhammer of certain death smashes your brains in with horrible economic data.

Eventually, the focus will switch from ESFS to the global economy. Don’t look now, but the draconian price action in the basic material sector is telling you China is slowing. Once all eyes are back on dicksucking GDP data, the fucking bottom will drop out of this market. Let me say it again, this time with purpose.

ONCE ALL EYES ARE BACK ON THE DICKSUCKING GDP DATA, THE FUCKING BOTTOM WILL DROP OUT OF THIS MARKET.

Trade happily and with great valour [sic].

Top picks: short EXH, short TROW, short NTRS, short LM

Poof! Your bullshit rally is gone.
-Merlin

I don’t get these “Euro-ministers.” Why do they go out of their way to debunk rumors that they are working on a PIGS debt solution? It’s hysterical, frankly. If you are buying here, essentially, you are gambling on the Europeans’ ability to quell this crisis. Ask yourself, “is this a viable thesis?” I am not advocating going short and betting on the world burning to a cinder. Instead, I choose to be a spectator, not a participant.

This is one of those weird moments in time where I have no interest in playing this tape. I am sure it will pass and I’ll be back to shooting arrows tipped with nuclear warheads at errant helicopters in no time at all. But for now, I am net short, with a 70% cash position.

Today’s tell, as always, is TLT.

Look, best case scenario, we get a flush out from here to October, so that we can properly enjoy a Thanksgiving to Christmas rally. I am NOT optimistic on the economy. However, I am very bullish on the shit Santa Claus brings to the table. While you little fuckers are sleeping, he parks his whip on your roof, then breaks into your bullshit house. He doesn’t take his filthy boots off, stepping all over your Persian rugs, eating your cookies. Sometimes he brings his fucking reindeer into your house too. He is truly an egregious man.

In closing, with my money, I am doing nothing. I will be traveling throughout NYC this morning, in my 1980’s style stretch limousine, tossing jumping jacks at piker brokers down near Wall Street. I like to see them jump.

I’ve had a 180 degree reversal in opinion, regarding the ESFS. Without stocks to buttress my bias, I am seeing things with greater clarity. The Germans cannot bail out Europe. They are NOT buying Europe, but being fleeced by Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and France. The German people should be chained and whipped by cigarette smoking Greek sodomites, then mugged for their life savings.

This makes no sense, whatsoever. Naturally, we are being trained to believe this is “the only option.” Put yourselves in the shoes of a German slave. Imagine if America was forced to buy out (BUY OUT is the operative term) Mexico’s debt? This is an abomination and will never work. In the short term, Greece will be saved and things will appear to be normal, until the economic crisis based around the laws of supply and demand strikes blows to Eurozone economies, leading to the insolvency of Germany itself. Look, if Germany cannot enforce taxation, it makes no sense to bail anyone out.

They should cut their losses and go back to the Deutschmark, else find themselves dead in the water broke a few years from now.

UPDATE: I’ve decided to release brand new algorithms for OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD in The PPT tonight. These tools are by far the biggest upgrades in PPT history, which enables user to view OB/OS signals on a 3,6,12 month and historical basis. Right now, the OB/OS is only historical. Now you will be able to view these signals over selective time frames. The market changes all the time. These new tools will help, immeasurably, in determining where the pivot points are.