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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Pathetic

That’s was not a rally, but a warning shot across your filthy keyboards. I am happy to be 45% cash and although I added to my FSLR position today, I pride myself for saying no to the giant bottle of soda that is this market. Subsequently, my TZA position closed in the green. My MTW position performed admirably, despite broad market weakness.

On the other hand, both FSLR and DECK sold off, while DMND took the day off. The result was a +0.1% day and I have zero regrets.

We can only continue this charade for so long. The market Gods grow weary of this tape (they tell me this when I drive in my space capsule). But certain industries still look robust, like the refiners. Crack spreads are widening again and if Iran gets shut down they will soar. Why? Because the divergence between Brent and WTI will widen again, lending to the idea that companies like WNR, DK and CVI have it going on, indeud.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL0u9QXNvEg 603 500]

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Don’t Be a Pig

Many years ago, I made a conscious decision to eat healthy. Now eating healthy doesn’t mean venturing off to MCD’s just once per week, as opposed to five. It means adhering to a certain discipline, being aware of everything that enters your fat face. I don’t drink soda, ever. I rarely drink anything but water and I am rather serious about an organic food only diet. Do yourself a favor and research the benefits and learn why eating corn fed beef is an abomination and how pesticides and sugar are poisonous.

For me, the result was a 35 pound weight loss and increased vitality.

Having said all that, the market is on a sugar high now. It’s like one fucking giant bottle of soda that people keep drinking, passing it around, getting fat and stupid off of it.

However, there are some odd things happening in the market. Look at the divergence between natural gas and oil. Understand that low natty is a big win for chemicals and other industries that use it. I feel under-invested today at 50% cash. But I will make money and that is the point, is it not? Being disciplined with a trading strategy and eating healthy share many attributes. namely doing things that go against our inner animal. Let’s face it, we all would love to drink beer, eat steaks and buy tech stocks on margin all day long. But it’s not always good for us.

My rules dictate it’s time to take my foot off the gas and slow things down. I don’t give a shit about faux Chinese numbers or asinine European bailouts. The bottom line is, I am up 7% for the year and we are still in January. It would be piggish of me to ignore the lessons of yesterday for the unknown future that lies ahead.

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Do the Ratings Agencies Matter?

The EFSF got downgraded today, putting them in the downgrade club–crowded with almost every single western nation save Germany. Having said that, does it even matter? If the new gold standard for everyone is AA+, what purpose does AAA serve? It seems to me that after the US was downgraded to AA+, the new standard that everyone else has been measured by is AA+. Anyone stuck with a rather unfortunate AAA are simply targets for a soon to be determined credit downgrade. Yes?

The purpose of the EFSF is to issue bonds to bail out everyone. Question: will central banks shy away from committing heinous acts of irresponsibility because S&P credit analysts finally awoken from their decade long slumber? I think not.

The ratings agencies are more irrelevant now than ever before. Their downgrades only sting when they loom. However, when they are completed, all parties seem to discard them as something stupid or worse, corrupt.

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Introducing Jean Sibelius

Jean Sibelis, from Finland, was commissiond by his government to write this symphony for his 50th birthday (a national holiday in Finland). It is one of my favorite pieces.

This is my favorite movement, Sibelius, Symphony no. 5 in E flat major–composed in 1915.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkzrSZKA4cM 603 500]

 

Here is another version, conducted by Maestro Herbert Von Karajan, who led the Berlin Philharmonic for 35 years and is the top selling classical musician of all time–having sold upwards of 200 million records.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyxyiWL0HJ4&feature=fvst 603 500]

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Sacrifices Have Been Made

I cut off my WNR and sold out of FOSL to lock in winship, booking anywhere between 10-25% gains on said holdings. The Gods asked for sacrifices yesterday, through outrageous DMND’s, and I have answered with a volley enveloped in fire.

My cash position is 50% and my TZA position is still 8% in the hole. Making money on this round of purchases is not the point. It’s the discipline that makes me a winner. You will see, to your astonishment, The PPT TNA/TZA buy/sell program will reign supreme, at the end of the day.

I am still long GSVC, DECK, MTW, FSLR, DMND and a little GMXR. You know I should be selling DECK, as it is vulnerable in a weak tape. However, I am emphatic in my belief that they will blow out earnings this quarter.

Everything else is blissful, sitting on top of the world, up 6% for the year and not giving a shit about being wrong.

Have a good weekend.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4G0bYIaJuHg&list=FLEIciWvVLqrS9jdkxpjKL9A&index=2&feature=plpp_video 603 500]

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HEED CAUTION

This is actually a big deal, the downgrading of France and Austria. However, for the most part, the market is giving it a big yawn, even the sovereign bond markets. Yields are little changed and the market is down a mere 100 points.

Child’s play.

As mentioned earlier, I sold out of my FOSL position–for the sake of raising money. Aside from WNR, I am getting clubbed to death in some other holdings–namely DMND and FSLR. This is to be expected.

I am tempted to sell more stocks, considering the euro is now at a 17 month low. This has to mean something, no?

My cash horde is now 32% and I am down 1% for the day. In the big scheme of things, this is comedic failure for the S&P corporation. Their vitriolic position against the equity and bond markets are evident, as they seem to time their downgrades to inflict maximum damage. If I was the dictator of America, I’d attach magnetic bombs to their SUVs.

In short, we are very overbought and this news can serve as a catalyst for a swift sell off, to the tune of 3-5%.

UPDATE: I sold out of WNR, upping my cash position to 50%.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwsxjHQJGmQ 603 500]

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Temptation

It’s so hard to go to cash. I look at stocks like CTRP, WHR and NFLX and dream of the potential upside and how it would please me if I were to be long during an epic run. I fashion myself to be something of a sage when it comes to stocks. People tell me things, supernatural shadows at my urinal, to help advance my purpose here on Earth. This may sound way out there, bizarre for some of you, while others may simply accept it as normal activity in a life of a space alien magician.

There are rumors floating around, regarding imminent downgrades of European sovereign debt. Because of this, amongst other things, futures are lower–pointing to a profit taking day. Let there be no confusion: we are overdue a 3-5% pullback. I will be hard pressed to buy anything today and may even sell into weakness.

Temptation to buy dips and make bold market calls dominates my person and has helped me make phenomenal market calls as well as abhorrent ones. This is not the time to be brave, with the euro tanking and treasuries lifting off. The downside risk is too great, following such a run, to buy after a small pullback. I will be waiting for The PPT to go OS before I buy again.

UPDATE: I sold out of FOSL for a fucking win.

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There Are No Such Things as Coincidences

Let’s be frank with one another, shall we? I’ve been having a good time at your expense, making all sorts of money, listening to rapping gorillas at work, forcing shorts into untenable situations. The Gods have warned me today through DMND. They DMND my attention and will cut off my WNR if I choose to ignore them. In other words, if I don’t calm the fuck down and listen, my physical form will become a FOSL under my DECK.

Instead of ignoring these warnings, like I have so many times in the past, I will pay homage to them through various liquidations. I’ve made 7% in 2012, 2% more than 2011, and I should be pulling out of stocks, not adding to them–clamoring for grotesque short squeezes out of sheer gluttony. I’ve become a very, very greedy man and that has to stop.

So, starting immediately, all iBC bannings will cease to exist, unless of course you are flagrant in both demeanor and appearance. I will lift any and all bans of people who are currently locked away at the iBC dungeons, providing they email me a note of sincere regret for abusing my generosity.

In a world filled with peasants and thieves, trying to snatch each others chains and murder one another by surprise, “The Fly” rises above and spreads joy and generosity through astounding acts of kindness.

NOTE: if this shit doesn’t help my coin building operations, you’re all banned again.

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HUMBLE PIE: It’s What’s for Dinner (UPDATED)

Another glorious day in God’s year of 2012, led forward by FOSL, Grossle, Tossle and Vossle. I stand before you a successful man. I like to consider myself one, as I’ve worked to that end for well over a decade and change. The magical things seen in the market today and nothing more than reruns of previous tapes. The game is always the same, only the characters change–in this case symbols.

Top picks: WNR, DMND

UPDATE: Apparently prosecutors are “looking into” DMND’s bribery tactics, which has been well known to everyone for a thousand years now. There is a reason why the stock is trading down here. Nevertheless, I will double my position into this decline, should it stick. The premise behind the investment is valuation, irrespective of this inquiry. This is not Enron, at least I hope not. My apologies to anyone who bought it because of me.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doeFtpj83fk 603 500]

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