You Want Crazy?!

Fuck it. Who am I kidding, worrying about some sort of Chinese implosion. There is no such thing as implosion, just temporary stalemates. There is a certain subset of stocks that have been underperforming because of concerns over China. Plainly, after consuming 20 beers, I can see that my thinking is entirely irrational.

Lo and behold, here is, yet another, fucking watchlist that I’ve managed to conjure up. After all, I am all but unemployed now, professional blogger of sorts, umpire of the markets, slave to my wife and kids.

Here are stocks that have underperformed over the past 3 months, within the Industrial/Basic Material complex.

PCX -24%
XCO -24%
CRR -14%
ANR -13%
CNX -11%
ACI -11%
JRCC -10%
BTU -3%
CRS +3.6%
FCX +4.6%
CENX +5%
PKX +7%
TC +7%
TCK +7%
AKS +8.5%
IPI +9%

Basically, this is the Costanza trade, buying up anything that offers an iota of uncertainty on a macro-scale. Sure, the above companies are all fucked; but that shouldn’t get in the way of a good ‘rip your fucking eyeballs out like a muppet’ rally.

Pardon this blog post, as it will contain the harshest of verbiage and depict great acts of physical and mental violence.

The market is cheap because prices are going up. When prices were going down, stocks were expensive. When SHLD was going out of business, one month ago, the stock was expensive. Now that it has doubled in price, it is cheap. Apple is going to double in value because the fucking innovator of the company is dead and he was holding them back all along. Plus, Tim Cook is in possession of ‘Zombie Steve’ and he knows everything Jobs knew.

The fatness of America has no end, as demonstrated by the share price of CMG. And, let’s not forget, America loves a great fucking deal, via PCLN, even though the company specializes in surprise attacks on its users, sending them to “3 star” hotels rendered inhospitable to normal, decent, human beings.

The crack addict analyst at JPM said China is most certainly undergoing a hard landing. Well, that news is good for stocks, and Apple, because it means more free money. Can you imagine all of the fucking opportunities that will arise once Chinese counterfeit yuan hits the world stage?!? For the love of Christ on Xmas, it will be sublime. Those accounting fraud fuckers will be hoarding more oil, gold, copper and rare earths than ever before. Hell, the price of oil will likely hit $400 per barrel– once China starts their own version of QE.

All of this shit, AND MORE, means we have “no choice” but to buy stocks because bonds aren’t any good. We’ve all witnessed how terrible it is to be a Greek debt owner. For all I know, next time, it could be my head in the basket, long treasuries or other such instruments. I’d much rather keep my money parked in consumer sensitive stocks because when all of the QE hits the markets and commodities spike like fuck, we’re all gonna be rich somehow.

Also, please do not forget, this is an election year and stocks can’t trade down during an election year. This is biblical fact. If you ask me why stocks can’t trade down during an election year, I will just dismiss your question and say “they never do,” equal to the yankees making the playoffs on an annual basis.

ISRG will never trade lower again because we’re going to fire all of our domestic surgeons (another plus for the labor market) and have some Indian fuckers “do surgery” from 10,000 miles away, using “the robot arm.” God forbid they have a power outage in Mumbai…

At the end of the day, everything will trade up, with exception to coal and natural gas. I will explain this to you very simply.

Coal is going down because China is crashing, as we mentioned before. With China heading towards a deep depression, steel demand is nil, therefore, eliminating the need for met coal. As a result, coal stocks suck. On top of that, natural gas is sooooo cheap, causing our utilities to cease buying coal in favor for natural gas.

Why isn’t natural gas benefitting from this classic supply and demand divergence?

Well, I will have you know, we have RECORD amounts of natty and it will never trade up because, well, ummm, we keep drilling for it.

You ponder, “how can we keep drilling for something as it declines in value? And if we are still doing it, why?”

Well, to answer that question I will tell you that natural gas is the future and it is as American as apple pie, with a little fracking juice on top. The drillers are finding more natty everyday because it is going to be in all of our trucks soon.

You ponder “if this is the case, why hasn’t the price of natty traded up, even a little? And, when do you think we will have natural gas powered trucks?”

You are one tough interviewer, I must say. From what I gather, if Obama gets elected, then and only then will trucks run on natty. The other fuckers want to drill for oil inside of your reservoirs, pollute the planet and shit.

I was having an interesting discussion the other day about how I sold CMG, AAPL, MNST, BWLD, and a host of others, at much lower prices. I don’t get mad about missing out because I know there are always new winners to be had, a chance to get it right. Before the discussion moved into the realm of outright vagrancy, we talked about some names worth mentioning.

Clearly, the next big thing was AAPL, CMG, PCLN, LULU, ISRG, PNRA, AZO, CRM, WFM, GMCR, NEU, SAM gold/silver etc. The question is, what’s next?

Will DDD move into the sex industry, allowing perverts to “print” dildos at home, sending the stock to a gazillion? Will PNRA continue to trail blaze higher, just like CMG? Will natural gas trucks become a reality, sending shares of CLNE much higher? Will CREE finally make it big in LED? Or, will NFLX get back on track and finish Blockbuster?

If I had to choose three companies that have the potential to become mega-trends, I’d pick TEA, YELP and TRIP. When I think about all of the current super-trends, the common denominator is I use them all. I can’t live without my Apple products and find myself eating at CMG, whenever given the chance. When I was an avid coffee drinker, I loved GMCR. And, ever since I started to eat healthy, I’ve been shopping at WFM.

Well, I don’t book hotel or restaurant reservations without the help of TRIP and YELP. And, ever since I switched over to consuming tea over coffee, for health benefits, I get my fix from TEA.

What super-trends do you see coming in the not-so-distant future? Or do you think this is all HORSESHIT and the next big trend is to bet against it all via FAZ, TZA and VXX?

How high can Apple go? As high as possible because there are no limitations to the skill-set that Tim Cook brings to the table.

Some stocks dropped today and it was looking dicey for a brief moment, or two; but at the end of the day (literally), the market won again. Granted, precious metals are sloppier than pig-shit and munis, treasuries and corporate bonds are knifing lower, as the dollar increases; but no one gives a fuck. All of these dislocations point to a sea-change in the matrix, a flight to cash, if I might be sold bold.

Have a look at EIM and LQD for reference.

I am holding onto my sanity by a thread. I have big, huffy and puffy, watchlists, at my disposal, awaiting my coin. Instead, I sold out of ALJ (dog!) and added to my VXX tits because I am a glutton for pain.

At the close of trade, I am up 14.5% for the year, 75% cash, down 10.2% on my VXX tits holdings.

So I am on the phone with a friend, discussing stocks and things of that nature. I pointed to the intra-day moves in AKS and X and how it would buoy the entire steel sector, with RS being my top pick. After all, it makes so much sense to see met coal producers dive lower, while steel makers shoot through the fucking roof. Shortly thereafter, RS spiked about $1, to new highs. I then pointed to shares of RBCN, pressing higher, only because it is a stupid company.

We laughed and mocked AAPL and MTW, as well as TEX, seeing their share prices spring-shoot higher. Simultaneously, I mocked my cash position and the dust it has collected in recent weeks, exclaiming to be an “umpire of the market, a man who calls balls and strikes, but never picks up the bat.”

This whole market has a very singular feel to it. It just so happens that the longer one stays out, the more one believes, with certainty, that the market is cursed. The very idea of top ticking the market, just like 2011, is to be abhorred.

This will all end with an explosion of emotions, leading to my reentry into the market, with grandiose scale in hazard. However, I am not at that stage, just yet, feeling deeply entrenched in my protective layers, immersed underneath the degenerate grounds of humanity.

On a longer term scale, I feel shares of GLW can only trade higher. And, I am looking at gold and silver stocks, yet again. The risk on market is forcing risk off instruments lower, such as gold, silver and treasuries. Until the worm turns, the vagrancy rules the roost!

UPDATE: I sold out of ALJ and added to VXX.

I’ve been scowling at the market all morning and I even refused to blog, purely out of protest for my misfitted positioning. Even though VXX has rebounded today and even though the market appears to be on the verge of receiving ample amounts of “earth and water,” I am disgusted by my inaction.

Naturally AAPL is up another $13, based upon the “when the founder and CEO of the company dies the stock must double in price” laws. Steve Jobs is going to send lightning bolts filled with dicks down at the head of Tim Cook.

If you haven’t noticed by now, yes, I am entirely unstable and share the same proclivities as the men you see on teevee, bouncing around in sleeveless dinner jackets, inside rubber rooms. I do want the market to fall and do so with extra flare and tenacity. I no longer desire to purchase your margin calls or buy dips for the explicit purposes of profiting.

No, things have turned for the worse my friend and I desire things far more insidious, such as black streets strewn with garbage, metal debris drifting in the sky, choking those who inhale it. I’d like to see President Santorum declare the stock market to be blasphemous, against “family values”, rendering it illegal. At that point, “The Fly” will sell stocks and bonds in the underground world, doing business with alcoholics and grifters, exchanging shares of CAT for 30 cents and PCLN for .002.

Aside from that, I am peachy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ou-y56B1bxQ&feature=related

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlc9pPeS2Q0 603 500]

I call this one “The Kansas City Shuffle.”

It’s official, I’ve befittingly become everything I loathe about life, a regular old fucker in a rocking chair, spitting at the kids playing on my yard. Not too long ago, I’d act on my convictions and accept the risk of being invested, for good or for worse. But, I’m such a fucking pussy now that all I do is build watchlists and point to stocks that should trade up, like BID, TIF, MAS, JWN, YELP, MTW, TRIP etc, yet do nothing about it.

Instead of worrying about why the market is going up, I should be doing lines of cocaine off the dead faces of bears. This is fucking ridiculous already and I’m really starting to get violent over this shit. Next thing you know, I will post some HORSESHIT about how “incredibly homosexual” this market is for going up, describing– with animalistic fervor– my love for earl gray tea. Get a fucking grip on reality son; no one gives a shit about your beverages! Grab a cup of black coffee and fondle your nutsack Fly.

My performance has been nothing less than purblind over the past month. This is classic “afraid of success 101”, where I was unable to accept a windfall and run with the market, to take more. Instead, I nearly fucked myself into a VXX bind, luckily hedged by an enormously stupid 60% cash position.

As I slumbered in the tall grass, a fucking lawnmower chopped me into little pieces.

I sincerely don’t know what else to say other than “I am a fucking ham and egger.” It’s official, so feel free to spread the word. “Le Fly” is a fucking ham and egger, pussy of mountainous magnitudes. I will be drinking excessively this weekend to drown away the pain I feel right now, the stinging in the middle of my chest, reminding me how I missed out on a golden opportunity.

I can certainly sit here and pretend this shit doesn’t bother me. After all, I haven’t clown raped myself too bad, with 60% cash; that’s pretty hard to do. For that, I give myself a fucking sarcastic golf clap. But, the truth of the matter is, I feel like committing arson on a grand scale. Fucking 5 alarm fires with nuclear detonations inside densely populated areas–releasing my anguish upon innocent homeless individuals who happen to be in wheeled chairs!

I WAS DOWN 0.12% TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I sold out of this piece of fucking shit.

I’m thinking about expanding iBC’s news section to include unique content, which would entail hiring someone to do investigative journalism. Before I pursue the placement of this position in the real world, I bring you this opportunity to make a fucking name for yourselves. If you have a background in finance and english or possess the ability to write on a college level, feel free to email me credentials: flybroker at gmail.com

A big mover this morning is WOLF. That place is a fucking shit heap. I’d never consider brining my kids to that bedbug infested hovel. Oddly enough, earnings were fantastic, which further supports my thesis that the lot of you are arcane beings, singular men and women who relish depravity with animal satisfaction.

Precious metals are weak today and volatility has collapsed. There is a real sense of complacency in the market, as investors feel nothing can go wrong.  Apple is likely to release a teevee in the fourth quarter, which should sink shares of LOGI for good. After all, once Apple takes over the teevee and remote market, who will buy LOGI’s stupid remotes? As for the glass, I have to believe an Apple juggernaut will bode extremely well for GLW, provider of glass substrates.

If the market is going to continue trading higher, I see no reason to try to outthink the market through buying out of favor stocks and sectors, hoping someone will notice how awesome they are. During crazed banana runs, trending industries continue to trend; things in motion tend to stay in motion.

For now, retail or anything consumer sensitive is the sweet spot.