Legal Crime

The ISDA ruled there was no Greek default. Therefore, the owners of Greek CDS should fuck themselves. My only question to the ISDA is this: if there was no Greek default, how come Greece had to default? After all, the fucking bonds are now trading less than 20 cents on the dollar. I know of bankrupt companies whose bonds were worth more. Indeud, I say this with tongue in cheek, for we all know what is going on here. The ECB is trying to avoid a “credit event” because they are the ones on the hook, since they have expanded their balance sheet by 40% in recent months, bailing out their banks.

Should CDS contracts be honored, payments to insurance owners would literally come out of the ECB treasure chest.

Since we have established that CDS contracts for governments and large banks are worthless, how does a bond buyer insure against future losses?

ANSWER: he doesn’t.

My guess, once the ECB quits playing with itself, via buying sovereign bonds, they will find a thin market for their wares. Why would I buy Italian 2 yr at 1.9% when I could buy some corporate shit and hedge it with CDS? If I buy CAT debt and CAT goes bankrupt, the government isn’t gonna give a shit. Hence, CDS contracts will be honored and I will look like the financial genius that I am.

Think about this: how glum and depressed is the guy who saw this whole Greek shit coming and tried to profit from his research through buying Greek CDS? Ha! That guy is fucked on a spindle.

Anyway, the futures are bouncing higher and auto sales are coming in much better than expected. Fucking Chrysler reported a 40% jump-WOW! We will likely sustain 1 million car sales for February, matching last month, putting us on pace for 14 million cars sold in 2012. That’s a big deal.

BID is trading down on soft earnings. I was waiting for a pullback. My hunch, let it come in another day or two, then start to accumulate. There is going to be some headline auctions this spring that should buoy the shares.

The big story for today and the near term future, however, is precious metals. Last night gold was up 1.5%. Now it’s barely up. Should the run on gold and silver continue, look for a blanket sell off in commodities.

Is Mr. Powers funny enough to help the shares of KSWS?

It’s time to teach you dick-suckers a lesson. “The Fly” rode into the bell atop a fucking TZA steed, slaying civilians along the way with his jousting lance. Take your lessons from the pinless hand grenade action in both GLD and SLV today. That is coming to a theatre near you and your money is going to be transfeured to me.

How so?

Well, for one, I have a cash horde of 65%. I’ve been plotting and scheming (in that fucking order) for the better half of a month now, with designs on buying margin liquidations. I believe the time has come for such an opportunity to present itself, AND MORE. Starting with the beastly men who are long both gold and silver: I will henceforth buy your margin calls without regards for your financial well being. Then I will swoop in and purchase the forced sales of oil and gas stocks. It’s all coming to a head soon and yes I am BROKEN CLOCK trading here, afforded such a decadency due to prudent investing, conservative with time and price.

On the long list, aside from margin call shit, is BID and TDY, both fine companies in both prestige and societal importance.

For the duration of the evening, I will drink Earl Grey and hit The PPT hard for some potential buying opportunities, in anticipation of a grande blood letting event.

See, I fucking nailed that top. Did you see the faces of your workers as the market slid about an hour ago? SHEER FEAR. I saw two fuckers throw themselves off a window ledge into some windshields down below. It was ugly.

Today’s crash was fueled by the gold and silver collapse. It’s fucking crazy out there. Traders were just selling shit, without even knowing what it was. It was equal to sticking your hand in a bag of garbage and eating whatever you grab. Sometimes you get plastic or napkins, other times you get steak bones. Either way, it makes for a bad meal.

I was “fortunate” enough to buy more VXX as it was down about 30 cents. It quickly spiked the fuck higher, as the market crashed. It was sublime.

I’m just trying to keep it real with you voyeurs, in order to educate America’s poor about this shit we call “stocks, bonds and other shit” here in NYC.

To be honest, I would like nothing more than to see people with their heads on fire, diving into vats of gasoline for closure. But I am a very, very smart man and like the feel of money in my pocket or as some of you from the ghetto might say “stacks.” Because of my love for money, I’ve refrained from shorting stocks, in favor for a neutral stance in cash.

Today I upped my exposure to VXX to 15% of assets. I still have more than 60% in cash because my goal is to buy dips, not so much bet on disaster. But it’s coming ladies and gentleman–yes indeud.

Soon enough zombies will rise from their graves and race over to the NYSE to eat the brains of the traders who work there. The market will shake you up, rattling your bones and crushing your skeleton into calcium/phosphorus white fucking powder.

As for me, I gallantly ride through this runaway bull market atop a TZA steed. As I ride this beast, I shoot people with handguns and I reflect on my sins with sincere silence.

THIS IS IT, FUCKFACE. The top is in. Enjoy the remainder of your day long gold stocks, jackass!

I added to my VXX position.

Swiped from The PPT, here is the full list of growth stocks that have sold off more than 10% over the two weeks.

Do you have an interest?

Maybe not.

After today’s open, you can add FSLR and SODA to that list, both companies are getting GRAPED in pre-market trade thanks to abhorrent earnings. It’s worth noting, I sold both significantly higher. In other news, CPST announced a secondary offering, which was to be expected. Although the share price is lower in per-market trade, it is to the benefit of the company longer term.

Tomorrow auto sales will be released. I believe the number is going to be big, thanks to a variety of reasons. You may see upside in TM, GM, AXL, ORLY, DLPH etc. in the near term.

I am still looking to get long BID. But I want lower prices before getting in. Ultimately we’re all guessing, some better than others. When the market was trending lower, no one said “hey, it’s cheap, let’s get in.” Now that the market is nothing but green and no one is taking an opposing view to the prevailing trend. Odd no?

It’s fucking painful to hear the same talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg radio, discussing the market as if they had a clue. I’d much rather read your comments than suffer through Cramer diatribes, talking about DEFCON 3 and imminent collapse to the current spiel: “this market is going higher.”

It’s a screed people. Moderate yourselves from doing harm. Play the tape and enjoy the excess; but don’t buy into the dream, for it is a fucking mirage.

Things I don’t like:

Refiners are trading like shit again and oil is getting smashed over the past two days. However, the market has been going up on oil weakness, which is nonsensical. Basically, the indices go higher no matter what. Generally, stocks look tired. Solar stocks broke out today because of the China subsidy news. But if you were long solar over the past month, you got your fucking brains kicked in.

Auto stocks and banks are looking good, as well as retailers. But volatility is basing out, fuckface. It’s done going lower and a storm is brewing.

LTRO is the stupidest shit in modern finance. It is barbaric and it will end in absolute failure. You can bank on that.

The market is on a roaring streak higher, avoiding any semblance of moderation. How calm has the market been? We haven’t traded down more than 1% for several months now, first time we’ve accomplished such a feat since the grande old days of 2007. Oh how I long for the subprime days of 2007, when the world teetered on collapse and men invested heavily right before the bottom dropped out.

Believe me, had I warned you about the market back in 2007, you would have ignored me and kept on buying dog shit. Wait a cotton picken’ minute: I was blogging in ’07 and did indeud warn you!

Look, we’ve been down this road before, haven’t we? I tell you what is going to happen and you ignore me because your brains are small. For a while, you will gloat while swimming in the shit soup, decrying Le Fly as being “passe”–because that’s what faggots do. But then it will all unravel soon enough and the market will sip your soup, leaving you sitting there with dried up feces all over your face.

It’s worth noting, I am merely watching this ordeal, not really in, out or betting against. I’m up nearly 20% and have 75% of my assets in cash. It’s true, I own some VXX and TZA, but nothing too serious. I also own TIF and CPST, but nothing too gargantuan.

We’re running higher on fumes. The bubble is expanding. But I will not try to pop it. It’s equally dangerous trying to pop the bubble as being inside of it. One never knows how far the bubble will expand before it pops. The only thing we know is this: it most certainly will pop. It is not a question of “if” but “when.”

The market is about to kick your teeth in. The Greek deal is now in the rearview mirror; let’s talk about European GDP. Oh, wait, you don’t want to talk about European GDP, do you? Perchance, would you prefer to talk about Portuguese debt?

As an aside, China announced they will be giving subsidies to LED manufacturers, which is particularly bullish for CREE and maybe LEDS.

Here are the terms, swiped from a government website:

1) The bidder must be legally registered in China and have certain design, production and manufacturing capabilities. Annual capacity must be at least 30,000 units for LED street lights and LED tunnel lights and at least 200,000 units for recessed downlights and PAR lamps.

2) The bidder must be an independent legal corporation with registered capital of at least 50 million RMB (US$ 8 million).

3) The bidder must have strong R&D, quality management systems and advanced manufacturing processes.

4) Over the past two years, the bidder cannot have had any commercial disputes arising from quality issues or any litigation involved in the production and supply of LED products.

5) The bidder must be in good financial health.

6) The bidder must have good after-market support.

7) The bidder must meet the National Development and Reform Commission’s LED technical requirements and product certifications.

8) The bidder must have the right to use product trademarks.

9) The bidder must comply with relevant national laws, administrative regulations, and have a good reputation and honest business ethics.

10) The bidder must purchase tender documents ($500 RMB, which includes electronic documents).

11) The bidder must attend opening ceremonies (dates, times, and locations are all provided).

Separately, TIF’s new jewelry line–RUBEDO–is being well received, worldwide. Prices range from $200 to $8,000, for a little eccentric piece of rose gold, lined with silver. Mrs. Fly might call it “so awesome and amazing.”

Let the games begin, and please do act responsibly. “The Fly” is embedded in mirth, for he knows what you only dream of understanding.