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Yearly Archives: 2017

CNN’s Jim Acosta Suffers Intense Verbal Beatdown by White House’s Stephen Miller Over Immigration Policy

Stephen Miller destroyed two reporters today, who may not recover. His first victim was the NY Times Glenn Thrush. The second, and most severely battered, was CNN’s Jim Acosta — who accused Trump’s new English requirement for immigrants as a racist policy meant to import gents from Great Britain and Australia.

The result of his comments was a furious and energetic verbal thrashing, calling out Jim for having a shockingly ignorant ‘cosmopolitan bias’. This is one for the ages.

Cosmopolitan Jim Acosta and his chic friend, Huma Abedin

Enjoy.

Short version

Full version

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Miller Unloads on NY Times Reporter: Maybe We’ll Carve Out a Part of the Bill to Allow Low Wage Workers at the NY Times

The Chief White House correspondent for the NY Times, Glenn Thrush, was utterly and vigorously humiliated today — by Trump’s senior policy advisor, Steven Miller.

NY Times Chief White House Correspondent, Glenn Thrush, lost his hat today

‘Maybe it’s time we had compassion for American workers, Glenn.’

This was a vicious beatdown. Glenn Thrush should resign from his post and live out the rest of his days tending to transgender goats in the green fields of Romania.

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Kulicke & Soffa Earnings Miss is Rocking the Semis Today

KLIC makes gold wire bonding for semiconductors and is considered to be a forward looking indicator for the entire sector. I don’t have time to dig through old articles now, but trust me when I tell you this isn’t the first time a KLIC shortfall brought down the entire semiconductor space. I recalls several years ago, maybe 2010 or 2011, a warning out of KLIC caused a full fucking chimp out in the tech sector.

More or less, we’re getting some weakness today thanks to both KLIC and MTSI earnings disappointments.

KLIC

Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.68; revenues rose 12.7% year/year to $243.9 mln vs the $245.02 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
Gross margin of 45.8%.

Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $200-215 mln vs. $193.60 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
“We continue to benefit from the strong industry environment, improved market dynamics and new opportunities in our core business and expanding portfolio. In parallel, we remain focused on further enhancing exposure and alignment to several other meaningful near and long-term opportunities.”

MTSI

M/A-COM Tech: Stifel sees downside reaction as overdone; tgt cut to $57 from $64 (61.06)
Stifel notes that MTSI is indicated down over 20% and they believe the reaction is overdone. Firm says while MACOM continues to cite many opportunities that support its long-term target model, the near-term continues to be impacted by weakness out of China, which is causing significant headwinds to its PON, long-haul/metro and backhaul/OTN businesses. Despite this persistent cyclical weakness, the firm is however encouraged by the strength outside of China, especially in Japan and No. America and in particular its Data Center business, which continues to exceed expectations and is poised for further growth. They also highlight several other strategic and secular growth opportunities still yet to ramp meaningfully (GaN, 100G, Active Antenna and DC), which helps support its ability to achieve its target model of ~20% growth in FY18, with improving GMs and overall profitability. Firm cuts their tgt to $57 from $64.

I am heading out now. But what you want to pay attention to next is the application software sector. It is weak today and not looking sporty. Should that sector fail, the entire market will follow suit — just like in early 2014.

Here’s a look at the semis.

Regarding the application software sector, keep a close eye on CRM, WDAY, SHOP, VEEV and DATA.

UPDATE: I found a note I left in Exodus, dated 10/7/10. You can go see for yourselves what that warning did to the semis that day.

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TRASH DOLLAR: Euro Extends Gains vs Dollar — Now Up More Than 14% For 2017

All of the dollarfags were rejoicing after the election — as the dollar roared higher alongside the market. It made no sense to see this, since we’re largely reliant upon exports to further our financial hegemony.

Lo and behold, after Trump talked the dollar down — praising the undervalued nature of the euro back in January — the dollar has been on a ruinous path to hell.

Here’s the US dollar index.

And here is the Euro crushing the souls and the American spirit, embedded in the US dollar.

A weaker dollar is supposed to promote greater exports — and stronger commodities. Thus far, we haven’t seen the silver lining of all this dollar chicanery, only the onerous effects it imposes on the aristocracy as they saunter overseas for their summer vacations.

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Trump Rolls Out New Immigration Plan that Rewards People Who Speak English

Leftists are going to go Congo apeshit over this one — while speaking English. In an obvious act of racism, exerting his white male power, President Trump rolled out a new plan that rewards people based on skills — including speaking English.

He also noted they would not be accepting welfare applicants from these newly minted, English speaking, foreign gents.

Watch and cry.

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China Bought America’s Largest Cinema Company — And Then the Movie Business Blew Up

Surprise, surprise — the Chinese got left holding the bag again.

Look who blew up at the Box office.

Why aren’t you mentally addled drunkards visiting the theatre anymore? They’ve got those new leather seats from which you could gobble down all of that buttery popped corn from. There are shows like Dunkirk and The Emoji movie, even Cars 3 (extra Chick Hicks) for you to enjoy.

Apparently, America is too transfixed on the only real show that counts — the Blahnald Drunpfkin minstrel series, starring Steve Bannon.

Shares of AMC are getting hammered — taking it with the entire movie business — straight down the drain.

Sees Q2 EPS ($1.34-1.36) vs $0.01 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1200-1204 mln vs $1.25 bln Capital IQ Consensus. The Company expects to report a net loss for the second quarter of 2017 of between $178.5 million and $174.5 million compared to net earnings of $24.0 million for the second quarter of 2016. Included in the net loss for the second quarter of 2017 is a $202.6 million pre-tax impairment charge related to AMC’s National CineMedia (NCMI) investment. As previously disclosed on SEC Form 10-Q for the three-month period ended March 31, 2017, because the market value of our investment in NCM further declined significantly below our carrying value, the decline in value is considered other than temporary. Due to the significant decline in value of the publicly quoted price per share of NCM, Inc., this impairment charge was recorded for all the units and shares owned in NCM.

AMC’s results also reflect industry box office trends. The North American industry box office for second quarter ended June 30, 2017, which includes Canada, decreased approximately 3.3%, and the U.S. industry box office declined approximately 4.4%, compared to the same period in 2016. European box office trends improved in the countries served by AMC, growing by a double-digit percentage year-over-year. That growth did not produce as big a benefit as it might have otherwise, because the second quarter is seasonally often the smallest quarter of the year.

Restructuring: Against the U.S. industry backdrop of a weaker than anticipated second quarter and estimates for a very challenging third quarter, the Company has embarked on a domestic cost reduction and revenue enhancement plan to better align operating expenses with theatre attendance in its markets and reduce general and administrative costs for the balance of 2017 and into 2018. The company expects to achieve at least a $30 million adjusted EBITDA contribution from cost savings and revenue enhancements through the end of 2017 which will include strategic pricing, promotional incentives, adjusting scheduling practices, reductions in operating hours, staffing levels, and additional general operating expense line items. The cost reduction initiatives affect both the Theatre Support Center based in Leawood, Kansas and AMC’s domestic theatre locations.

AMC is at its lowest point since coming public in 2014 and IMAX is at 2012 levels.

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Morons Celebrate Dow 22,000, While Everything Else is Getting Hammered

Just because a handful of stocks, led by Apple, steered the market above Dow 22,000 — Drudge Report made it his top headline.

Meanwhile, everything else is falling apart — led by tech.

My Bubble Basket is lower by 1.94% and almost nothing is immune to the selling today.

Market breadth is at 23%. Stop celebrating Dow 22,000.

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Analyst Warns of Debt Bomb, Credit Expansion, and Wanton Chicanery in China

Do not worry about anything you’re about to read. In fact, close out your browsers now and go to sleep — since it’s late and you must be really sleepy.

Charlene Chu from Autonomous Research is out with a note warning about Chinese credit expansion. Before we delve into the details, let’s have a gander at said ‘credit expansion.’


Fuckload of credit cards

Total credit is expected to rise to 223t yuan ($33t) from 196t yuan by the end of 2017 — an increase of ~13%, which is down from the 19% gain in 2016.

Progress.

Chu’s estimates are measurably higher than the lies out of Beijing, who offered guidance of 167t yuan, which she says is bereft of local govt bond issuance and off balance sheet lending.

“It’s imperative that they start acting now, rather than continuing to push this to the future,” said the former Fitch Ratings Ltd. analyst, who made her name warning of risks from the country’s debt binge.

By her back of the envelope estimates, institutions stand to lose a potential 38t yuan — implying a nonperforming credit ratio of 25%.

Read that again: twenty five percent.

The Chinese banking regulator, who must be doped up on Mongolian opiates, is estimating just 1.74%. What an arb!

“The overarching issue for China is that there’s a ton of credit that’s not in bank loan portfolios,” said Chu.

Yeah, I’ll say.

Under this doomsday scenario of tumult, Chu is estimating the entirety of the Chinese banking sector to be cracked asunder, drowned in the blood of roguish oriental banksters. She posits a state bailout in the magnitude of 21t yuan will be needed in order to keep the savages at bay and the economy running at minimum efficiency.

In May, Moody’s slashed China’s credit rating, citing a ‘material rise’ in a pan Chinese state debt burden that might just explode.

Over the past few years, Chinese companies have leveraged up, sashaying the globe in search of plunder — making acquisitions worth in excess of $343 billion.

Overall household, corporate and and government debt in China rings in at an astonishing $28 trillion, or 258% of GDP. Of that, $17 trillion is laden on corporate balance sheets — who’ve used said credit to make expensive acquisitions. Due to this unrelenting credit expansion, the IMF is estimating that GDP will contract to +5% from 6.9% by 2021. If the country falls prey to one of those pesky financial meltdowns, analysts feel economic growth could fall below 3%.

Under this scenario, rest assured, all of your left v right bickering will be for nought — as we’ll all be dead — eaten alive by zombie hordes.

The subsequent result of credit expansion growing at 2-3x that of GDP has led to a zombification of the economy — strewn with failed companies kept afloat by cheap credit. A reckoning is coming and there will be little choice but to batten down the hatches and run for cover when the deleveraging begins.

In China, you’re literally not allowed to fail. Credit defaults were just 0.1% last year — compared to 2% in the US. Premier Li Keqiang said China must “ruthlessly bring down the knife” — but they’ve done very little, or anything for that matter, to stop the profligate behavior embedded in the corporate sector.

“We need to see bankruptcies, lots of them,” says Michael Every, head of financial market research at Rabobank Group in Hong Kong.

If matters couldn’t get worse, the Chinese property sector is now frothier as a percentage of GDP than the US housing market in 2006. Similar to the behavior witnessed during the US housing bubble, Chinese investors and flipping homes and buying and selling without even moving in — a blue dream floating amidst unicorns and anime cartoons.

Pan China, there are upwards of 50 million units which have been purchased, but remain unoccupied.

All of this sounds dreadful, and then there’s the unregulated, unwatched, $10 trillion Chinese shadow banking system. I suppose none of this matters when markets are at record highs. Maybe we should just forget about this nonsense and see about that nap now.

The Shanghai is +11.5% over the past 12 months.

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$AAPL Beats — Cash Hoard Now Amounts to Astonishing $261 Billion

Gross margins came in at the high end of range, which is the real driver for the shares in the after-hours, currently +5% to a record $157 and some change.

Here are some highlights.

Q3 iPhones of 41.0 mln vs 41.1 mln ests versus 47.5 mln last year.
Q3 iPads of 11.4 mln vs 9 mln ests vs 10.9 mln last year.
Q3 Macs of 4.3 mln vs 4 mln ests vs 4.4 mln last year.

Thanks to free cash flow, Apple’s cash hoard grew from $256 billion reported last quarter to a new record of $261 billion. With a market cap of ~$800 billion, their cash now represents roughly 30% of it’s overall value.

Apple related stocks include:
CRUS, INVN, SWKS, QRVO, QCOM, NXPI, AVGO, TXN, KYO, OLED

Other notable after hours reports include: FEYE +5.5%, DXCM +7%, PXD -5.5%, EYES +7%, FMI +7%, ILMN +7%, BOOT +6%, TEX +4%, FANG +2.5%, ULTI -13%, BGFV -13%, COHR -12.5%, FTR -10%, SPWR -10%, HLF -3%.

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ALERT: President Trump is Bragging About the Stock Market Gains Again

When the idiot George Bush was finished ruining America, the stock market had declined over 26% during his two terms.

Under President Obama, the market had recovered and soared 235%, or 16.4% annualized.

Although I wasn’t a fan of Obama, the stock market marveled under his grace. Truth be told, any investor worth his salt will tell you the fate of markets has little to do with its elected leaders, more to do with the Federal Reserve.

Obama inherited a disaster, born in the housing crisis, that dated back to the Clinton administration. Once that bubble popped, Bush got left holding the bag. Obama merely presided over its recovery and subsequent reflation. He literally did nothing.

This was the real hero.

Six months into Trump’s term and the S&P 500 is at a new record high, +10% — and he’s taking credit for each and every tick. Can someone say “jinx”?

If Trump is lucky, the Yellen Fed will grant him respite and stop tightening rates, permitting stocks to run higher. Or, they might do to him what Greenspan did to Bush — hike rates 17 times until the bubble popped.

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