PAY YOUR FAIR SHARE

I am too upset to blog in full sentences, give the absolute dismantling of WNR. So, I will throw out some random thoughts. Whether you agree with me or not is not relevant.

Obama is a dicksucker.
The Tea Party people are the most ignorant facet of society since the neanderthals clanned up and attempted to kill T-Rex’s with dull spears.
You cannot balance your budget out of an economic spiral. Moreover, you can’t raise taxes on the rich and expect things will get better.
There is no way out for Italy and Spain, unless ECB cuts rates to zero and monetizes their own debt.
Congress is unfit to govern.
The Fed needs to act soon, else we will crash. I do not give a fuck if you believe inflation is a risk, as it’s all a fiction and figments of your overactive imagination.
The inflation story never had legs, since wages never went up. It was all manufactured. Now it’s being dismantled.
I am more than upset today, but depressed. I was 80% cash last week (50% yesterday, 20% now) and looking to position into TLT in the low $90’s. The debt ceiling debate distracted me from the real issues at hand.
Fuck you Congress.

Perhaps the ECB will do an EMERGENCY rate hike, in order to stave off inflation. The Italians are stuck in a giant bowl of meatball soup, dragging the rest of Europe down the shit hole with them. We are at a point where the Fed needs to intervene right away, else we shall dive much, much lower.

Is that good for the economy, Rick Santelli?

Of course not, fucktards.

If the market gets down 20-30% from the highs, the economy will tailspin lower, fucking the world to the tenth power.

The economy recovered sharply off the 2008 lows. However, the underlying problems still persist, starting with the illiquidity at the banks. The prospect for further stimulus here in the states is nil, mostly thanks to the Tea Party. After all, they need to fight that fucking inflation. Without stimulus or QE3, confidence will wane to the point where systemic risk grips Europe until it is choked off. The contagion will spread to Latin America, Asia and then here, first on a muni level, then on a national level.

10 year rates are at 2.5%!

One can make an argument that Congress exasperated the bloodletting with their ineptitude. Without confidence, nothing works. What you are seeing right now is a classic panic and a massive change in sentiment. I am getting crushed today and fear the selling can continue, especially going into the weekend. The only way we rally is if the Fed intervenes and ASAP.

The Italian stock market is not updating, after dropping more than 3.5%. Most markets are off by 2% and U.S. treasuries are soaring. I cannot predict how this will turn out in the near term, as human emotions tend to run wild during periods of duress. All I can suggest is to make sure you are not leveraged and try to avoid buying junk.

I’m getting my cock chopped off here, with WNR knifing lower, alongside a variety of other positions. Like a stock market imbecile, I allocated 30% of my cash into this market yesterday, just in time for the shit storm. I am not having a good day.

I’ve managed to survive all sorts of markets, even come back from the dead when I nearly lost in all in 2000. During the 2008 market melt down, I was positioned short and was able to turn the ship around for the 2009 long trade. Last year, when QE1 was ending, I was heavily positioned for a decline, betting the Fed would not initiate QE2. Furthermore, I felt even if they did, it wouldn’t matter. I was taught a very valuable lesson back then and care not to repeat those lessons.

When things looks thew bleakest, most horrific, is when the buying opportunities arise. Of course this could be different, especially since there are whole country’s failing. However, NOTHING goes up in perpetuity or down. We may look back on this period as a significant buying opportunity. Or, we may look at it as the beginning of the unraveling of the markets.

We all make our beds and lie in them. Right now, I am down over 4% for the day, nearly fucking myself to death in a variety of risky plays, yet here I am blogging like a fucking moron. I have work to do and it might not be pretty. I might sell or I might buy. At the end of the day, I am a survivor and will make sure I live to fight another day. My gains are still double digits, year to date, and I can risk a little bit more down here. But it’s fucking hard, Ringo, real fucking hard.

Let’s put things into perspective, shall we?

This is a bad tape, but not so bad. For the love of broken blue radios, we’re not even down 10% from the highs. People on the teevee are busy, with their pancaked make up, making you nervous. They are, without a doubt, fucking clowns.

It never feels good being on the receiving end of a murderhole. But what is the probable outcome here? Will the Fed just watch the economy double dip into the oblivion?

I think not.

The Bernanke put is alive and well. We’re going into the Jackson Hole meetings and the economy is in the tank.

Now, if you are short this market, you must be aware of the fact that the government hates you. The stock market is all we have now. It is our #1 export. Despite what your emotions are telling you (OMG WE’RE GONNA CRASH), there is a face ripping rally coming. The world doesn’t end like this, seamlessly without a fight. I am not sticking my head in the sand, ignoring the great and real problems facing the market today. I am simply positioning where the higher probability trades lie.

Remember, just last week everyone was giddy, snorting coke off the asses of gorillas. Now the world is ending?

Fucking drama queens.

WNR hedged their way out of a great quarter, AGAIN. Although they beat on revenues by almost $400 million, they fucked up again on EPS. Like I said in a previous post, they might be retarded, so don’t get mad at them. I suppose one could make the argument that they were simply being prudent, in the face of record spreads and a high debt load. I don’t buy it.

I am not in good mood and will be listening to their conference call at 10am.

On a side note, TDC beat nicely and the market is going to melt the fuck down today.

Cheers!

Okay Ladies and Gents, this is it! CVI and TSO quarterly reports are in and they were stellar. I am long of CVI (no Gartman) in small size and expect to bank coin on my shares tomorrow. But the 10,000lb gorilla snorting cocaine and smacking people in the faces with pancake pans is WNR.

On the skin of my cock, WNR shall report BETTER THAN EXPECTED NUMBERS tomorrow and guide the fuck up. Mind you, if they do not, the management at WNR is retarded, so don’t get mad at them. They’d have to be physically disabled to fuck up 321 cracks of $30+ and 20%+ Brent to WTI premiums. I mean, the CEO would have to roll into work in a fucking stretcher every day and gamble company profits on DNDN calls on a daily basis to miss this quarter.

I expect the shorts will catch spears through their skulls tomorrow, then tossed aside onto flaming barrels of garbage for easy disposal.

Aside from crazy anomalies, in my opinion, the only way WNR trades down tomorrow is if they announce a secondary offering, which is possible, considering their debt load. Plus, the relative share price is high. I hate to shit on your umbrellas; but that’s how the capital markets work. Don’t get mad, just deal with it and quit bitching about piker shit.

Barring an offering, “The Fly” will be fully robed and sandaled tomorrow, burning incense in his office until the fucking fire department is dispatched. I am crowned by the Gods, administrator of banking coin on these here internets. You should conduct rituals on my behalf and offer sacrifices in my name, as payment for what I do here.

We are rallying off the lows, pretty hard here. We MUST hold these gains and build on them, else we will shit the shower and cascade lower into the bell. I’ve decided to put my money where my mouth is and allocate 30% of my cash here—buying CLF, SWK, WNR, GSVC, TEX, FLS, TDC, CVI and EMN.

I know it’s risky and if I was just trying to get by I’d avoid the market here and “not be a hero.” However, that’s the mindset of a fucking coward. I am here to bank coin and throw javelins through the faces of my enemies, while wearing horrifying AFRICAN MASKS. If I am wrong, it’s only money and I will rebuild. However, if I am right, this trade will make my year.

As for you: don’t follow me into Hades, unless you can handle it. This is a high risk venture that may lead to the immediate removal of my limbs, leaving “The Fly” stubbed on the curb with just a torso.

I bought 15,000 CLF, sub $86.

And, I added to GSVC.

UPDATE: I added to all of my positions, taking cash down to 20%.

Disclaimer: African spears, and shit, flying towards your face.

I left the office this morning to think about the market. I am conflicted between two schools of thought. On one hand, the market is clearly oversold. On the other, how in the world does Italy and Spain wiggle their way out of this mess? Moreover, it is clear to me, it looks like we are heading back into recession, the old double dip.

I can take the hits now, book the losses and walk away with a 13% gain. But if I do that, I risk missing out on what is sure to be one of the most “awesome and amazing” snap back rallies of all time. Truth be told, my current roster of stocks are sucking “severe dick” (whatever the fuck that means). My recent spate of option purchases have gone to hell in a hand basket and my buy of TNA yesterday is laughable today.

The question is, are we in the midst of a 2008 style melt down or is this something that will pass?

Part of me wants to just bury my head in the sand, especially since I only have 50% exposure. The only way to guarantee snap back rally participation is by holding onto positions, even if it feels like hell on a hot day. Then again, only fucktards like Bill Miller trade like that, taking hits for no apparent reason other than to stay “long and strong.”

They are trying to destroy the market, by taking yields down and running up CDS. As you can see, they are quite efficient at causing panic. The only safe havens are gold, silver and treasuries. Incidentally, it has been in my game plan to get long TLT for August since the beginning of the year. I am fucking pissed at myself for missing the trade, when it was in the low $90’s.

What am I going to do?

I’m going to throw fucking spears through the faces of people soon, African mask style.

321 crack spreads are at record highs, above $34. The Brent/WTI spread is at record highs at $22 or 24%. Take a company like WNR, who gets their crude from the Eagle ford shale, which sells at a discount to WTI, and you have a company that is seemingly immune to the barbarity taking place in this market.

A company like Western Refining is to the stock market what Rome was to Britain, circa 75AD. Like the British, all other stocks aside from WNR and a handful of others, are neanderthals, unjust and outright uncivilized.

WNR is your evening cup of Early Gray with a dash of milk and honey, while your average Nasdaq tech stock is a 40oz of Crazy Horse, with a peppermint stuck inside.

As investors/traders, it is our responsibility to position our money ahead of the herd. I am putting my best foot forward with WNR and would like to see rapid appreciation, in the midst of Italian failure (no meatball).

Earnings are coming due Thursday and it’s always a gamble. However, if these numbers do not impress the small minded people employed at money management firms, then the planet is a sphere, Babe Ruth never hit an infield homerun and DB Copper died in 1972.