I left the office this morning to think about the market. I am conflicted between two schools of thought. On one hand, the market is clearly oversold. On the other, how in the world does Italy and Spain wiggle their way out of this mess? Moreover, it is clear to me, it looks like we are heading back into recession, the old double dip.
I can take the hits now, book the losses and walk away with a 13% gain. But if I do that, I risk missing out on what is sure to be one of the most “awesome and amazing” snap back rallies of all time. Truth be told, my current roster of stocks are sucking “severe dick” (whatever the fuck that means). My recent spate of option purchases have gone to hell in a hand basket and my buy of TNA yesterday is laughable today.
The question is, are we in the midst of a 2008 style melt down or is this something that will pass?
Part of me wants to just bury my head in the sand, especially since I only have 50% exposure. The only way to guarantee snap back rally participation is by holding onto positions, even if it feels like hell on a hot day. Then again, only fucktards like Bill Miller trade like that, taking hits for no apparent reason other than to stay “long and strong.”
They are trying to destroy the market, by taking yields down and running up CDS. As you can see, they are quite efficient at causing panic. The only safe havens are gold, silver and treasuries. Incidentally, it has been in my game plan to get long TLT for August since the beginning of the year. I am fucking pissed at myself for missing the trade, when it was in the low $90’s.
What am I going to do?
I’m going to throw fucking spears through the faces of people soon, African mask style.
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fig
woe is me…fuck
question is, when does the bearded one act?
hint next week, or apply max pain and wait until end of the month at Jackson Hole?
My thoughts entirely….made me laugh! I just gambled away that Ski condo that I’ve been meaning to buy for the last 2 years…..I’m a greedy bastard!
MOTR-boat time !!
kidding …
well maybe .. it will be some day
Interesting thing is that the VIX is down today. I suppose volatility is down due to less panic today than yesterday. I don’t think that is a good sign however. We need a flush out, a good 500 point down move.
You have balls, so you should go all in and bounce really really high.
Rocky
“On one hand, the market is clearly oversold. On the other, how in the world does Italy and Spain wiggle their way out of this mess?”
QE and loads of it while promising to implement a strategy of consolidating at least 60% of EU bonds outstanding. That’s it, that’s the final outcome.
I wish last 8 down days already caused panic mood and contrarian thinking prevail this time. But LTCM failed in this thinking. Mkt is really a legalized casino.
My wife had Legg Mason Value Fund in 2008 and we lost a boatload of money due to that Ahole Miller. Douchebag idiot.
According to Fortune, Bank of America Merrill Lynch surveyed its 265 big fund managers managing over $800 billion and they all agreed that if the S&P 500 hit 1100 than the Fed would announce a new round of quantitative easing.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/tag/bernanke/
Many hedge fund managers are losing a lot of money this year, so they could easily be wrong about this too. So this is not a prediction, just an article of interest.
Here comes QE3.
We need the type of Jackson Hole action that makes McCaulay Culkin wish he weren’t home alone.
Gold and silver are overbought, the market is oversold, oil is oversold. Something needs to change soon.
Says who? Bad, can go to worse very quickly…If QE3 commences, where does one think precious mentals will print?
Bad will get worse. But I don’t think it will get much worse than this short term. QE3 will bring higher gold prices, I agree.
how insightful, are you a professional at this?
I have given up my ski condo, my personal trainer, and all vacations in the near future. Something’s gotta give. Dammit, what did I do with that crystal ball?
I think it’s in Italy or Spain.
Back to more sink repair…fuck the stock market.
Man is my crack starting to stink, sweat beads gathering down there a flock
of seagulls at the dump waiting for the next truck to dump its load.
You really are starting to get a bit oddly obsessed by your crack.
________
Don’t worry they are probably furiously cooking the NFP numbers as we speak. Then BB has your back on the 9th and the 26th.
i am sure they are doing drive bys the self serve stations and counting the people filling their cars as working .. the fact that they can afford to gas up implies gainful employment and would be double counting anyway.
serioulsy though, if i recall the numbers were light last time around because a couple of states didnt report some numbers, opr were light. this may give them the fudge factor needed to blow the expectation out of the water – just sayin’
Moose weenie…it sucks big Moose Weenie
or like that other greek dish,moose caca
QE3 is now a complete guarantee. We will get a huge bounce on that new, but I don’t think it will have a lasting effect like QE2 did. It will however, make gold and silver ride to the moon.
Fly, I always admire your candor.
Your situation is easy, yous it back and wait for the rally. Your exposure is low enough, and your market outperformance is currently good enough.
Might want to drop the options though.
Fly – do you not know the End Game? They are taking this market down to justify the QE3 bonanza.
Hold on for dear life my friend.
Long Gold, Silver. Out o dollars.
The market will be heading higher once the fuck Bernanke meets again on Aug. 9 or whatever the fuck.
j’s got it right. QE and lot’s of it. The Austerians got it wrong, but I’m not so sure the Keynesians could have borrowed enough to fill that demand black hole. Let’s face it. We ALL blew up a goddamn huge fuckin’ bubble for 30 years and now we’re all fuckin’ screwed.
china is the worlds growth engine, they r an export economy, who do they sell to if europe, us, are slowing?the cheaper dollar has been good for us exports,but who do we sell to? we r oversold, ok but what if we were overbought to begin with?
not a time to be greedy, what if there is no snap back? what it we go down into one of Fly’s murder holes? think, is now a good time to risk your money?
by the way, Spain, as much as I love that country, is hosed.
Well deserved. Pretty womens, but too many siesta taking layabouts. They haven’t been the same since Trafalgar.
Luis Bunuel forever.
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Que? El Bruto!
Jake, I must disagree. The Spaniard works very hard, back in the 60’s it was different. Once Franco croaked things changed.
Quality related news article here:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/
TIME TO PAY YOUR FAIR SHARE AND RAISE THOSE FUCKING TAXES ON THE CORPORATE JET CROWD.
Not possible due to Grover Norquist’s pledge that so many Congress members have taken.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2011/07/grover-norquist-tax-pledge.html
Here’s the 3 civility-filled comments to that article from erudite and cultured readers of The New Yorker:
3 comments | Add your comments
I’ve just checked my records and I don’t recall voting for Norquist and his new Nazi Party.
Posted 7/26/2011, 11:06:22am by rhwasc
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(Godwin’s Law violation right outta the box! Vitriolic? Maybe. Unpredicatable? Not so much. — ed.)
Strange as this behavior is to people educated in a secular, enlightened tradition, these people are the Cotton Mathers of our time, seriously obsessing about how many devils can dance on the head of a pin. Thus they don’t care about the big picture results of their actions. And of course these true believers are always easily exploitable by cynical and greedy people, just as in Salem many accused of witchcraft were landowners whose property was forfeit when they were found guilty, and this is why Giles Corey famously stood mute and was pressed to death with millstones. It is both terrifying and absurd to me that in the 21st century my future security is in the hands of witchhunters, zealots, and cynics. I feel, as I imagine most hard-working middle-class Americans do, as if I am being pressed to death by millstones.
(Not that additional taxes on hard working middle class Americans would be construed as “millstones” of course, right genius? — ed.)
Posted 7/24/2011, 3:58:21pm by Freshwater
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To Norquist and the Tea Party, government is the enemy, and anything they can do to strangle it, they will do, so deep runs their vision of a world run on private enterprise for the rich and survival of the fittest for the poor.
(Gotta love the nuanced grasp of the facts from the “civility buffs.” — ed.)
Read more http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2011/07/grover-norquist-tax-pledge.html#ixzz1TzMEMir1
I certainly am not responsible for what all the New Yorker reader commenters say.
I myself did not read the comments on the article. In fact I only read the first page of the article itself, which explains who Norquist is If you have an article from some other magazine you like better, explaining who Norquist is, feel free to post it here.
In fact, although I would prefer that GE’s tax be hiked from zero to some positive number, I think we could make great inroads into getting the budget in shape without raising taxes– just by getting rid of corporate welfare.
Agreud. And every other kind of welfare.
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Took you up on your TLT play from early July, thanks for the tip Fly.. you da man! Too late to join the party?
Even fucktards get it right sometimes.
A plutonium powered space rocket would be useful here – anyone have one?
I am thinking about the market, too.
Thinking that I FUCKED UP when I bought GLD puts and F common at the close yesterday.
Been about half cash for 2 weeks and I’m still down a Ferrari with all the upgrades, shit’s getting absurd. We’re in the same boat Fly, every way you look at it the market is heavily oversold, and many stocks are flat out cheap, yet the market keeps bleeding. At the same time getting all out and missing the potential rally insanity that might occur would leave me with but one option to go all king kong rampaging through the nearest walmart, what to do, what to do.
The buffoons at CNBC said that the consecutive losses in the DJIA hasn’t been seen since 1978.
In 1978:
I was in my 3rd year of law school,
Some of the leading growth stocks were Fotomat (WTF?), Volume Shoe (must be the CROX of the ’70’s), Brunswick Corp. (bowling alleys Ha Ha), etc.
One gallon of gas cost .63 (that’s cents), space invaders is launched, average house cost $55,000 (I think that is what it is now as a matter of fact), Cheers is on TV, and Illinois Bell is rumored to have started what they call a cellular mobile phone system.
The good old days.
Cheers started in 1982… it was the quintessential 80’s show, like Seinfeld was for the 90’s.
Are you thinking maybe of M*A*S*H*? That was the quintessential Jimmah Cartah era seventies show if there was one.
_________
Yes.
You are correct.
My dementia must have also started in 1978.
Happy Days already jumped the shark and spun off Mork & Mindy, Laverne & Shirley
Other hits were The Rutles,Battlestar Galactica, Different Strokes etc.
Blues Brothers took the stage on SNL for the first time, movie later on:
http://youtu.be/F5N35kQAPv0
The MASH theme song was, “Suicide Is Painless”, causing a bit of a controversy.
Do we have a clip ?
Yes?
Ok, “Suicide Is Painless”, with the lyrics, Let’s watch:
http://youtu.be/goB4GbeltKc
taxi bro,
Welcome back Carter!
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My high school years. I remember waiting on line for gas. We could only fill up on odd or even days based on our plates. Gasoline SPIKED to .99 per gallon…
There was the Carter malaise and high unemployment. The Japanese stole our auto business. Interest rates were climbing. Not a very good time for the economy…
Me too.
My parents kept yelling at me to take the yellow Impala wagon and white Ford Galaxy 500 to “top” off the tank.
Had to buy locking gas caps because of the theft.
People who are ignorant of the facts often criticize the Jimmy Carter years.
Here is UNEMPLOYMENT under Carter: 1977 1978 1979 1980
6.9% 6.0% 6.5% 7.1%
Under the eight years of REAGAN, unemployment averaged 7.5%.
EVERY SINGLE YEAR, Carter’s unemployment was BETTER
than the average under Reagan.
Criticize Deadbeat Dutch if you want to bitch about unemployment and interest rates.
but there were less than 225 mill people here in the states back then.if you were unemployed back then your average number of days unemployed was less than 2-3 weeks. and more like a few days.
Carter rode herd over stag-flation, and Reagan got the country moving again. Unemployment was high because Volker (rightfully) kept interest rates high to knife out the Nixon-Carter Era inflation.
So a couple of bips of unemployment was worth the results earned from that pain. A lesson to contemplate as we shoulder 10% unemployment rates under the Eurosocialist game plan.
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Back in long dated calls on SLV. I’m sure now it will be the top but I only did a starter.
“They” say get out of the dollar and US markets but S. Korea and Switzerland, both strong economies, are down too – gotta have something short to see some green until it bounces.
Only violent short squeeze of WNR (whatever that means) tomorrow will satisfy my rage in this absurd market.
a leak of a positive pre-anounce usually scares the shit out of the shorts when that ploy is used.. wnr is also a great long.
don’t worry about it Mr. Fly today i give the green light to buy. fear is at its worst, and things are priced in, in the short term. i will be buying th snap back rally today for next weeks monsterous gains
Nice to see you are human – and a much better trader than I, but you did the right thing stepping away. I would stick by your conventions – except the flight to treasuries!!
Hey Fly,
I know you could careless about my 5 fig account but since you have been good lately in recommeding some stocks that I found as good plays (DECK, WNR) I want it to give back some…
I am currently positioning myself long into the end of the year. As such I am buying the following names:
WNR
CMI
TLB
CDTI
GFED
EMN
GSVC
The world economy needs to be de-levered. This will entail a massive transfer of wealth from the debtors to the creditors.
Debtors will want to inflate their way out while the creditors want real money. Considering that the US has made it very clear that they have no intention of transferring any wealth to their creditors, it looks like we are doomed to a long inflationary trend. Having a lot of cash on hand ready to start buying real assets seems like a decent long term strategy.
Thank you $HSNI.