“Not so fast!” The King bellowed!

Come on now, you guys!  For all intent and purpose, just because we did not have a roaring positive green daily bar at the open doesn’t mean the upward momentum is over.  Let’s the price action speak first.  Yes, we opened down and I sold some to reduce exposure in case the selling continued unabated.  But it did not continue unabated; instead the Dow was only down 0.29% (as I’m typing this post).  This price action is far from the King yelling “Retrieve!”

No!  The King is simply bellowing “Not so fast!” 

If you look at the weekly Dow Jones bar as of now, you will see that it still has a bullish outlook.

I bought back DNN and CCJ (both as a slightly higher price than I sold this morning)

Now I’m 45% invested and 55% cash.

Remember, we can all come up with deep analysis of WHY the market should go down (or up) with strong logical support for our thesis; but ultimately, it is the price action that speak louder than what we think.

We think LOGICALLY; but market moves IRRATIONALLY.

And since we are trading the market; what information is better than the price action itself???

Follow the King and follow him tight; otherwise, the King cannot save you because you decided you are the smarter ones.

Btw, for those who invested deeply into their analysis; I know you are wishing the price action to adhere to your logical conclusion; but that would be like “wishing” your significant one to obey your every command.  Now, you know that is literally quite impossible!  Ok, ok..  Perhaps, some of the time; but not all the time. (grin)

Good Hunting!

For those who don’t know yet; in my book, King = Price action

 

 

 

Comments »

Come on now, it is not news that the Leftist Syriza coming out of the left field threw a wrench into the Greek election.  The uncertainty of it all, Pasok or Syriza, somehow doesn’t fade the market yesterday.  Despite our conjecture of potential doom and gloom, the domino-effect of Greece exit of Euro-zone, and the various bearish scenarios that may come out of this election; market still went up Friday.

What does that tell you?  Sometimes when market did not do what you (or we) expected it to do, that by itself is an important message.  Seemed to me the market is brushing off this uncertainty because the market knows that one way or the other, the rest of the world is not going to let a small country like Greece ruins the stability of world economy.

What about the lesson from the failure of Lehman?   Yeah, even I fell into the trap door using this example as a rebuttal argument.  Now, I believe it is BECAUSE of the failure of Lehman that the financial centers around world learned an important lesson and are much more ready to handle any financial fall-out from Greece exit of the Euro-zone if that is the path being chose.

Think about this, the stock market, as a barometer, does NOT like uncertainty; it would fall hard last week if the world thought Greece is important enough to fuck the world economy up.  Perhaps last year the world was not ready for Greece “situation”; but giving the last week stock market movement; the world may be ready for whatever may come from Greece this year.

Look at the weekly Dow Jones chart below, the volume for last week was 25% higher than the week before and last week was an up bar!  If you ignore the outside noises and just look at the chart, it is as bullish as anyone will like it to be.

I’m glad I nibbled my way back in with 55% invested; this is close to the middle ground with a 5% bias on the upside. Regardless of how the market behave on Monday, I’ve no regret on my decision I made on Friday.

You see, it is not what we think that matter, it is what the price action says that does!

And since price action is the King in my book, I always follow my King.

Good Hunting!

 

 

 

Comments »

Unbelievable!  If I have not seen it myself, I would not believe it!

I’ve been following uranium for years but due to the downdraft early in the year, I completely sold out all shape and form of uranium stocks.  Remember, it doesn’t matter if I like something, I MUST follow my KING (price action) and protect myself.  One of the super high-beta uranium stock I like is USU.  From 2011 to now, USU has been on a dead spiral and as far as I was concerned, it was marked for death due to starvation and uranium exposure.

Then 3 days ago (on Wednesday this week), Uncle Sam decided that USU must be saved!  In a quick and efficient manner that is a rare sight these days, financial fuel was forced feed on USU and the poor guy just bounced back from near death!  Whoa!  My baby is alive!

What do you think?  Of course, I “nibbled” my way back in USU.  However, in order for this baby to grow up to become a giant it was designed to be; more financial fuel has to be available.  USU needs that 2 billions loan guarantee from Uncle Sam and you know how the political situation is in DC.  You will think that someone who opposed the funding of USU is thinking that a mutant is being created…

Anyway, I’m in for this high-beta kick ass risk-explosion bet.  Yes, I only buy enough so that when this little mutant blow up by accident, I will probably only lose a finger…

Good Hunting!

Comments »

Has anybody seen a snail lately?  Or do you remember how the snail move?  Slowly and ever  s l o w l y . . .

I figure I’ll try this method today.  Here is how it works.  You buy s-l-o-w-l-y than your normal “Get me fill already!  More, more, and more!”

Patiently, I waited for DDD to retrace after the morning rush hour run to the high of $29.76; and retraced it did.  Then I started to nibble my way back in at the low $29ish.  For the lord of me; I don’t understand why price will go up when the secondary offering is for $27.  But this academic debate is not something I want to dwell into since price action is the King and I need to follow my King.

Well, I’m all for taking along the siblings when I take my date out; it goes to build good relationship with your significant one.  So, without question, I nibbled on SSYS as well.

Next, since I pass a lot of gas, I love to own some gas.  So I nibbled on CHK. CHK chart looks exactly like what a snail will move- ever  s l o w l y  upward.

When it comes to my cholesterol level, I’ve no choice but to be optimistic about AMRN which should be getting a response from FDA soon regarding approval.  Call me naive, but I do want AMRN to succeed and its magical fish oil to be as valid as “an apple a day to keep the doctor away”.  Since I value my organ dearly, especially my liver, I’m not very keen at all to take those statin family of drug.   For the good of health, I nibbled on AMRN.

NUAN was my first baby-boomer.  I bought it when it was still under Scansoft name and under $5.  However, I sold too soon back then.  Now that the Fly bought some, it brought back old memory and the chart looks like a breakout.  Got to buy some for old memory sake.

Since I bought USU (see my other post); I started looking at CCJ and DNN.  CCJ looks good for a breakout play.  And DNN looks good for a bottom fishing since it is basing at $1.41 level.  Needless to say, I bought starter position for both.

SZYM looked like it is holding strong at current level ($12.30) for the last 4 days, so I bought back a starter position to see if there is a breakout next week.  Will buy more if it does.

So far, the field looks green and this snail is looking good and happy as a clam can be.  S l o w l y  it moves on and on.

Currently 40% 55% invested and 60% 45% cash.

Good Hunting!

Comments »

This is quite an exhilarating week.  If there is ever an epic tug-of-war b/w the bull and bear, this is it.  There is no clear winner here yet.  Monday, the bear pulled back an inch to their side that they lost last Friday and the short sellers piled up for the final tug.  But it wasn’t to be; Tuesday came and the bull won back their inch and the short-haters piled up for the final tug.  Nope, it wasn’t to be either!  Wednesday came, the bear snorted some cocaine and yanked back the inch; but something changed, the bear idols began to think twice about piling up.  Somehow in some way, trader Joe is getting a bit smarter now.  The smart play seemed to be to bet for the yo-yo action.  Thursday, which is today, the bull snorted twice the cocaine the bear took yesterday and gained back an inch plus some.

Viola! The yo-yo action is confirmed!  The wager is that tomorrow, the bear will win back the inch.  Before the bull starts “yelping” on how the buying frenzy in the last moment of today close will surely carry the ball to the bull court tomorrow, don’t discount the same force of selling frenzy before the weekend vote.

For crying out loud, this back and forth is getting tiresome already.  Did you see the gruesome faces of the bull pullers as well as the bear’s.  All these pulling is taking a toll.

Now, can someone PLEASE throw a banana peel into the midst to see which side is gonna step on it?

It will be much more fun to watch the eventual “Whoosh” and see one side slams into the others and create smoke of sand so big that no one can see what is really happening.

Quick! Quick!  Check your broker account to see which way it goes; shrink or a full “woody”?

Sorry, since I didn’t trade today but close out my shorts in the morning; I’ve nothing to post but some meaningless babbles…

Still sitting on 73% cash.

Good Hunting!

Comments »

I thought I heard something; but then it could be my imagination.  Just for fun so that I will only get an itch if I’m wrong again.  Again!  I bought a very small starter position on TVIX, TZA, and SKF.

If a cloud falls off the sky tomorrow, I will add more.  If more clouds disappeared, I will add even more.

And if market open gap up tomorrow (no surprise here), I will just scratch my sore and be done with it.

In a way, this yo-yo market can be kind of fun if you can be quick about it.

Good Hunting!

Comments »

Yesterday, I bought DDD as part of my portfolio build-up betting that the market will continue upward.  Nevertheless, by the end of the yesterday, DDD released news that they will do a secondary offering of $100 million.   While this amount can be “argued” to be relatively small compared to their market cap; a dilution is a dilution no matter how you look at it.  Sometimes you have to look at the reason why there is even a need for dilution at all.

Thus, for those who doesn’t want to cut the loss quickly (or to acknowledge that they may be wrong), they can argue that the secondary offering amount of $100 million is not enough to be worrisome.  So they continue to hold.

Meanwhile, I learned long ago that it is not worth the effort to rationalize away the bad news.  Whether the price action can recover from the bad news is not something I want to entertain myself with while I’m holding the position.  I just want to get the fuck out of the position as soon as possible.  I put a market order to sell at the open and got filled $1 below my entry point.  I’m actually very happy with my fill.  And even more happier now because DDD price has gone down to $3.25 against my entry point as I’m typing this post.

That additional $2.25 per share against me would have hurt my pocketbook quite a bit since I bought in size.

It is from numerous times of seeing how cutting my losses quickly saved my day (like today with DDD) that it becomes very easy for me to develop the habit of cutting losses.  Yes, there will be times that after I cut my losses, the stock will go back up forcing me to pay a higher price to get back in.  But in the long run, I still come out ahead because these small gap of paying higher price to jump back in is insignificant compared to the gigantic losses of not cutting your losses quickly.

Good Hunting!

Comments »

Well, one can never tell but only see if the probability will play out the way one sees it.  One thing I don’t like is having the market open against my layout plan.  I expected the market to go up and instead it opened with bad economic news.  Retail numbers are down.  This is not good news.

Talking about ill-timing, DDD news flash on secondary offering right after  bought; but that the way it is.  You never know what is going to transpire but I still have 100% control of what I can do with the stock.  Needless to say, I sold DDD at the open and got a small bite on my ass.  Ouch!

SSYS- with bad economic news and DDD dilution, I expect this will also go down in sympathy.  Out at the market with a smaller Ouch.

CCJ- Out at almost breakeven.  No Ouch.

LNG- Out with a little Ouch.

MCP- Out at almost breakeven.  No Ouch.

SZYM- This one was down against me at the close yesterday; so the Ouch is as loud as the DDD.

YELP- If there is no bad economic news, I may give YELP a little longer time with my 38% stop loss; but with bad economic news, everything has to go.  Due to horrible spread, this Ouch is the same as DDD and SZYM.

Overall, the damage is not as bad as I thought.  I may as well got out at the bottom and market may turn back up at this point due to higher probability of QE3 being implemented.  Frankly, I don’t care at this point.  Safety comes first before my ego and the need to be right.  I’m hoping to buy back at lower prices.

Back to 73% cash.

Such is another day at the stock market.

Good Hunting!

 

 

Comments »

Take a look at the Dow Jones weekly chart below.  Notice that this week bar still has an upward bias due to a higher high and a higher low with the low still at the upper range of last week green bullish engulfment bar (my version- not counting candlestick tails).  If today was another big down day; we would have a red weekly bar with a low that fell into the bottom range of last week bar which would exhibit a downward bias.  But we didn’t have a big down day to continue the pattern of yesterday bearish engulfment bar.

To me, a failure to continue on the path of the engulfment bar is as much a loud message as a continuing trend bar.  Since engulfment bar has a high probability of continuing; its failure to continue the trend in the next day means that there is a very strong opposite force come into the play.   This opposite force cannot be discount and can possibly change the direction of the trend.  In our weekly perspective; I believe we are still on track for our price action to head to the area (B).  I expect we may see some resistance at the 13,136 area; if price action could not penetrate this resistance, a downward trend may begin to complete wave C of this correction wave.

Since it looks like we are heading to point B to complete wave B, I’m feeling positive about moving 35% of my cash into equities today.  I’m always about 20%-25% invested in the visionary portfolio that I don’t trade with; thus, my 35% additional investment today.

Good Hunting!

Comments »

Although yesterday down bar was quite a monster engulfment bar; its failure to continue was quite disappointing.  After reaching a new high, TZA could not maintain its momentum and instead gave me a red candlestick bar instead.  Luckily, I got out with a profit because my trading plan demanded that I do not turn a profit into a loss.

Lo and Behold, right after I got out of both SKF and TZA with profit, the wind suddenly blew even harder against the tide of TZA.  Meaning the market wanted to go up.  Despite the bear pulling their supersonic wind blower to counter this festive wind, it could not turn the TZA red bar into a green bar.   So, what should a guy like me do?

Since I like to be happy and festive more than being sad and despair, it is a no brainer for me to start buying up some party favors for the coming sail.  Ok, I’m betting that there will be a sail.

Currently, I loaded up on AMRN, CCJ, DDD, LNG, MCP, SSYS, SZYM, and YELP and still have 40% cash.

What about the Euro-Zone nightmare?  Geez, since there is no follow-up on TZA or SKF, I assume the general consensus think the market is overplaying the fear factor in the Euro crisis.  Like the Fly said, why would the global G men wants another 2008 again?

Of course, all bet made in the stock market comes with risk.  Therefore, if I’m wrong “again!”, my stop losses will take care of me.  Yeah, I may give back a few percentage points in my YTD gain; but on the other hand, I may even gain a few more percentages as well.  It is all about your willing to accept risk and return based on your personal risk tolerance.

Good Hunting!

Comments »