Come on already! We have a head-fake this morning. A gap up with no meat. Price has been meandering all morning inside the half-hour opening range. Now, as I am typing the post, price finally broke below the bottom of the opening range.
A gap up that failed, to me, is a bear waiting to wreak havoc. Let’s see if this bull can shake off its sleepiness and get on with the rally. I believe we should have an answer in a day or two. Can the Presidential rally overcome the Summer August sell-off? Based on the last 6 days of small range bars, my take is that there is no guarantee the bull has a higher probability than the bear. If this is going to be a bear, I’ll be waiting.
Below is the daily SPY chart. Notice that today is a red color bar. And it looks like it is going to close below the previous high made in August 7th. Will there be a late rally to turn this into a green bar? If there is, I’ll be impressed and will stay off the TZA hit button. If not, my opinion is that the probability of a bear raid happening will increase ever so slightly.
Well, that is my take after almost falling asleep from watching the SPY movement. You should know better than to listen to me for I’ve a record of being wrong half-of-the-time. It is risk management that save my ass time after time; therefore, trade with discipline and follow the price action.
Good Hunting!
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Trading journal update:
SPY inability to climb back up inside the opening range is enough for me to deduce a gap down tomorrow. It is a bet.
So, I bought TZA starter position. Will add more if tomorrow is a down day.
Out of TZA @ breakeven.
No significant gap down per expectation and SPY acted very positive. So flat on TZA now.
Bought back TZA based on taking out of the 5m BW’s bullish divergent bar. Stop is below the divergent bar. This is a close stop hence very low risk.
TZA stopped out for tiny losses.
Flat on TZA now.
Trading Journal Update:
Bought AMRN starter position. Price action rose above the 5m 89 ema support.
Move AMRN stop to breakeven. May get stop out soon.
Stopped out of AMRN @ breakeven. The reason for the stop so close was because I don’t want to hang around if price could not stay above the 89 ema.
Bought back AMRN since price climbed back above the 89 ema. Same starter position.
Bought CCJ, USU, and DNN.
I think uranium stock is coming back to life.
Trading journal update:
Bought TZA starter position.with stop below intra-day low.
Added TZA due to taking out the pivot point.
Stopped out of my added TZA due to a close stop. Still have my original TZA position with stop below intra-day low.
Stopped out of my remaining TZA position. Now flat on TZA with small losses.
Trading journal update:
Bought starter position in TZA.with stop below intra-day low.
Stopped out of TZA at breakeven. Yes, I moved my stop to BE when I was in the money.
No position for now.