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Monthly Archives: July 2012

The weekly SPY chart still does not look good (updated)

Here is what the weekly SPY chart looks like right now:

The late rally from the low isn’t helping much.  Even if SPY rallies all the way back to 136.40; we will have the dreadful Doji bar against the 61.8% Fib retracement.  Either way, I’m taking my 85% cash with me over the weekend.

Oh yeah, I bought back half of THLD I sold this morning.  The chart looks so strong I can’t help but feel that it will go much higher next week.  I still have my TZA starter position but my SKF was stopped out.

Notice the last red bar is now below the 61.8% retracement of April 6th high and June 8th low.  This can only validate the resistance power of the Fib 61.8%.  If we have a red candlestick bar by end of the day (which mean a red weekly bar), there is a high probability the price actions will roll off to the downside.

Hence, I’m mostly out of my equity position:

Long-term equity: 11%

THLD: 3%

TZA: 1%

Cash: 85%

Good Hunting!

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Are we reaching the Threshold for maximum gain?

Threshold Pharmaceuticals!  That is what I’m talking about.

I like the weekly and the daily charts for THLD.  Just by looking at the charts, I can “hear” the price actions screaming “I WANNA GO UP!”  So, to calm the voice in my head, I added THLD twice today.

Oh no, this is not a recommendation or suggestion to buy THLD.  Besides, you must be crazy to buy a stock pick from someone who claimed to hear “voice” about price actions.

Below is the daily THLD chart:

Below is the Weekly THLD chart:

Good Hunting!

ps. I forgot to mention that I like the fact that THLD made new high today.  Yeap, a new high for the last 60+ trading days.  Thus, this could be a trigger for long-term trend players to get in.  Watch out if price actions take out the March 30, 2012 high of $9.07.

Current equity holdings  (27%):

(Order: large to small) PRLB; THLD; USU; USEG; LMLP; DNN; HDSN;

Long-term portfolio (11%);

Cash (62%)

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Mid-week SPY weekly chart analysis- So far so good!

Hope you all have a Happy July 4th!

So far, Monday & Tuesday gave us a good positive price action by mean of having a nice green bar that closed on top of that 61.8% retracement.  I like to see Thursday and Friday’s price action to maintain this green weekly bar or at least close above the SPY price of $136.45.  However, I will prefer that we don’t ended the week with a Doji bar that close near $136.45.  It is my experience that a Doji bar near any Fib retracement carry a higher probability of a correction to current trend.  So, let’s see how the rest of the week play out.

Currently, I’m heavily weighted on PRLB since I doubled-down on the price run-up on Tuesday.  Remember, I only averaged up.   I’m sitting on some nice profit but will have no hesitation to dump it for profit if price action begin to have 2nd thought on the uptrend.  Nevertheless, price action looked positive for PRLB and the odd is that the momentum may continue.

I also doubled-down on THLD on Tuesday because of a breakout pattern I saw on the chart.  See below THLD daily chart.

I’m disappointed to see HDSN not only failed to breakout of the high of May 10th; but ended Tuesday with a bearish engulfment bar.  I will continue to reduce my position if price continues to head lower.

Currently 44% equity and 56% cash.

Good Hunting!

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“Practice isn’t the thing you do once you’re good. It’s the thing you do that makes you good.”

Yeap!  I got this quote from the book, “Endgame: Bobby Fischer’s Remarkable Rise and Fall- from America’s Brightest Prodigy to the Edge of Madness” by Frank Brady.

I’m still half-way thru the book but came upon this quote by Malcolm Gladwell.  I’m amazed at the dedication Bobby and the top chess players spent on their chess games.  Imagine if aspiring traders apply 10% of that kind of dedication; the reward will be tremendous.

Now, I’m more motivated to allocate more time to play chess, ooop! I meant to say- allocate more time to study and practice trading skills from my repertoire.

I’ve a feeling that this week is going to be a non-eventual week.  Price action isn’t going to take to the moon or fall off the cliff; instead, it is going to dance around inside the red box below.  Just my take of it, of course.

My equity position increased to 40% today and cash is 60%.

I found a 3D printer stock alternative called PRLB and it looked like it was bottoming out.  Since DDD and SSYS were kind of on a high side; I figured I could play PRLB for a catch-up.  Nevertheless, this is a super-high-beta stock and the volatility isn’t for everyone.  No, I’m not advising anyone to buy.

I also bought back USU, USEG, LMLP and a few suggested by iBC members such as HDSN, RBCN. and THLD.  Don’t worry, I’ll be applying my own trading style on these picks; but thanks in advance anyway.

Good Hunting!

Below is the daily SPY chart:

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Do we have a REPLAY of July & August 2011?

See for yourself below:

There was a strong rally in the last week of June 2011 and the weekly bar ended almost identical to what we have last week.  Did you see how the price actions consolidated mostly in July and then rolled off the hill in August 2011?  (see the price action inside the red rectangular box on the left)

In order to avoid a repeat of last July & August, we need to see price action takes out the 61.8% retracement of Point (3) and Point (4) and turn the retracement into a support instead of bumping against it as resistance.

Perhaps, this year being the Presidential election year will turn the tide to the upside instead of a replay of 2011?

Stay tune and watch out for price action.  Last Friday, I increased my equity to 29% and cash @ 71%.  I will add more equity if price action (SPY) can take out the $136.45 and stay above the retracement I mentioned above.  On the other hand, if price action is having a hard time bumping against the resistance, I will be unloading my equity back to cash to play safe.

Good Hunting!

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