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Monthly Archives: July 2012

The BULL is only taking a breather

From the look of the daily SPY chart below, I believe the BULL is still in good shape.  Notice that today low failed to break thru the half-way point of Friday bar and is currently resting on the 23.6% correction of Friday bar.

As luck would have it, 5 of my 7 stocks I bought last week are actually up today.  I cut 1 of the  2 that did not perform well.

Current position:

32% stocks [DDD (up)  SZYM (up)  SSYS (up)  AUY (up)  WPRT (up)  REMX (neutral to minor down)  TQNT (cut) ]

9.6% long-term equity (taking a 0.4% hit today)

58.4% cash

Good Hunting!

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From the Daily to Monthly SPY charts, I can still see the BULL. Can you?

Thanks to Friday big UP day, it turns the overall outlook of the daily to monthly SPY charts to a more positive upward bias.  From the look of it, Friday price action could really change the flow of the charts significantly.  IF it was a big down day, the daily to monthly SPY charts would be more negative bias and would show a weakened bull.

From the daily SPY chart below, you could see that Friday daily bar closed above the Andrew Pitch-fork median line (offset by 50% to line up beautifully to the pivot high and low).  This look positive for the bull thesis since the low of last Thursday now potentially become a pivot low for the next possible run to where I placed my “X”.

Below is the weekly SPY chart.  You can see that the low of the last week bar is still a higher low compared to 2 weeks ago.  Furthermore, last week low is also higher than the lower parallel median line.   A long bottom tail of last week candlestick bar also mean a more bullish stance.  Notice the trend line (the thick green line) is still sloping up.

Below monthly SPY chart could not be more positive bias; we have a guaranteed higher high that break the lower high pattern of the last 2 bars/months.  While the month is not over yet, current month higher low can be maintained if price actions do not fall apart from here.

Overall, economic news aside, the daily to monthly SPY charts look positively bullish all because of Friday BIG ASS up bar!

If price actions continues upward from here, I will continue to add to my equity position and hold less cash.

Good Hunting!

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Banking on Time-of-Day 02:30pm EST market action: My take -> continuation of rally

The market took a nap during the day after the morning rush.  Now it is waking up and my take is that it will want to run up some more.

Get ready for some choo-choo train on the upside.

Or will I be wrong again?

All eyes is looking for SPY to take out the 135.54 high of the day.

Yeap, got some day trade position banking on this late day breakout move.

Good Hunting!

ps. BTW, I also added to my equity today since this morning.

Now, my position is:


10% long-term equity

53% 57% cash

Below shows the after-effect.  Needless to say, I banked all profits on my daytrade.

Just another day of catching the market lead among days of tripping over…

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You see, instead of a GAP UP that leave you kicking yourself for not buying (more) yesterday, we were giving the gift of soft opening to jump in.

Not for one to miss the gift in plan sight, I started buying my favorites.

This morning, I bought and added the following:


I dumped EXK since it was the only non-performance stock in the morning.

Due to the potential corn crop situation highlighted by The Fly, I can see renewed interesting in Bio-food such as SZYM.  Hence the 2nd largest position size in my portfolio.  My largest position size is, of course, my long-term portfolio.

Now that I got my fill, I’ll monitor the trend for the rest of the day.  I may add or reduce positions based on direction of the trend going forward.  Meanwhile, I’ll be daytrading here and there for some profit which I will not be posting here.

Current position:

31% (see stock list above)
10% long-term equity
59% cash

Good Hunting!

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Is this the reluctant bear or a stubborn bull?

With an impressive run-up from the bottom once again, I’ve to say the bull is putting up a good fight against the bear.  Every push down was being responded with a push up.  However, despite the push up by end of day, each day still ended down.   BUT it was only a small step down; so the bull earned an applause from me.

To show my sincere appreciation of the bull effort, I ventured into some bargain hunting of the 3rd kind!  I bought back the 3rd generation stocks (technology for our future) I sold in the past.  Now, I’m the happy owner of the following (in order of position size):

SSYS   SZYM  DDD  WPRT   and The Fly’s favorite silver mining stock EXK.

All my shorts were sold this morning due to the  impressive run-up of price actions and I was lucky to gain a small profit from this campaign.  It was fun until the choo-choo train kept on detouring to many hillsides.

Below is the 15 minutes SPY chart.  You can see which way the train was going all day…

Below is the daily chart.  Notice that today is 6th day of this down move.  Could an up day be due tomorrow? Who know.  However, the fact that today close is below the 79sma and 89xma doesn’t sit well with me…

Below is the weekly chart.  This chart along tell me the bear is still in charge and caution must be doubled if you are still long.  HOWEVER, notice that the low for this week bar touched the trendline from June 8th to June 29th and then bounced right back up.  If tomorrow price action failed to pierce this trendline, I think I’m safe with the stocks I bought today.

Current position:

10% long-term equity

19% (see stocks I listed above)

71% cash

Good Hunting!

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Dancing with the market (ballroom dance style)

If you have seen ballroom dancing either live or in TV, you will know that the man usually lead the lady in the dance.  Well, guess what, in our dancing with the market, if you like to make huge profit, you will have to let the market do the leading.  As far as the market is concern, sexism is not a word and the market doesn’t care you are a man or a woman.

The market only has one secret to share, “follow my lead and you will be rewarded“.

BUT you will be punished harshly if you try to do the following:

-lead the market

-fight with the market

-step on the market toe ’cause you are stumbling on without discipline

-fall asleep while dancing with the market

-don’t pay attention when dancing

-being impatient with the market

-dancing to your own music instead of the market’s

-don’t practice the dance steps the market teaches you

-too fearful of dancing with the market

And what is the simple “secret” that dancing instructor tell their students?

-surrender yourself-

Yes, surrender yourself to the music, to your partner, to the flow of the dance.

In the same token, as a trader, surrender yourself to the market beat.

And what make the market beat?

Price Action!

Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your dancing partner we called THE Market.  Now, please follow THE Market lead by watching the step.  Wait, I mean the price action!

Good Hunting!

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After a small detour at the hillside; the South bound train continues onward… down

This morning, even I got off the train for a brief moment on the hillside.  But after seeing some more passengers getting on to the South bound train; I decided to hop back in.

As the South bound train took off around 02:00pm EST; the scenery was so breath-taking I decided to upgrade my seat to business class to get a better view.  If I can see the ocean later, I may even upgrade to luxury class!

I’m currently back to 21% in my short position (bought SH, TZA, and SKF).

Below 15 minutes chart showed the morning detour of the South bound train and how it got back on track later on.

Below is the 15m, daily, and weekly SPY charts:

Daily SPY chart below:

Weekly SPY chart below:

As I’m typing this post, I can see some “correction” to the upside and this is to be expected after a big swing down at 02:00pm.  However, I’ll be watching closely for any late day rally that may put my position on defensive ground.  If the correction persists, I’ll of course reduce short position accordingly.

Good Hunting!

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The South Bound train has departed and the ticket price has gone up.

Look like we may have a replay of 2011 July & August if the current price actions continues its momentum.

Below is the path the train is following…

15m SPY chart:

Daily SPY chart:

Weekly SPY chart:

Current position:

20% short (bought SH, SKF, & TZA)

10% long-term equity

70% cash

Good Hunting!

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Ticket to Southland is on sale!

For some reason, after watching price action this morning, I feel an urge to buy a ticket to visit the Southland.  I sold all my THLD for breakeven and began my short campaign by buying SH, TZA, and SKF.

Currently, 11% long-term equity; 11% short position.  From here, I will continue to add to my short if price actions demand it.  Of course, stops are in place in case I’m wrong (again?).

Below is the charts that inspired me to visit the Southland:

15 minutes SPY chart below:

Below is the SPY weekly chart:

Good Hunting!

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Is the A-B-C correction over?

Below is the daily SPY chart.

Notice I marked the Elliott’s 5 Wave patterns on the downtrend starting from the top at April 2nd, 2012 and ended on June 4th, 2012.  From there on, I also marked the A-B-C correction to the upside.  Friday down bar “potentially” creates a temporary “top” for wave C at $137.80.  However, Wave B ($130.85) has to be taken out before we can validate Wave C is complete.

Looking at the weekly SPY chart below, wave B ($130.85) from the daily chart happened to be the low of big green bar 2 weeks ago.  In a way, $130.85 is a price point to keep an eye on.

Meanwhile, notice that in 2011, the week ended July 8 showed a small range bar (see little down arrow pointing to the price bar inside the red box) right after the big green bad ass bar from the week before.  Now, look at last week bar ended July 6th.  It also showed a small range bar; but this time it is a little red weekly bar.  If history is to repeat, we may have a down week coming up.  Adding to the probability of downside bias, it doesn’t help that last week small range red bar closed below the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at 136.45.

In summary, in my opinion, caution is warranted in the coming week.

Since I’m 85% cash currently, I believe I’m cautious enough.

Good Hunting!

ps. btw, the Elliott Wave patterns are my own personal interpretation only; therefore, feel free to disagree.

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