Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:57pm ESTComments Off on Desert Rumor: Nevada Will Buy Rooftop Solar for 20 Years
This comes from Politico writer Esther Whieldon. Apparently Nevada Public Utilities Commission wants to allow about 15,000 rooftop solar customers the right to sell back power to the grid for 20 years.
Solar City is going bananas on the news, but is still down a whopping -30% year to date.
I’m testing out a new run-and-gun strategy with about 50% of my swing portfolio. Like any approach I take to the market, I start by writing out a plan. I usually keep these private because they’re very dear to me, but iBankCoin is for the people. I have written close to 50 of these plans. Any good plan should be amorphous to survive in the markets. Therefore I start with something basic and add or remove rules as I become more familiar with the approach. Enjoy.
I will enter trades either when the S&P 500 as represented by the eMini S&P future contract “/ES” is at a support level I suspect could mark the low of the session or when the index shows upward momentum.
I will choose whichever stock in the list presents the best daily chart setup
I will drill down intraday and enter the first buyable dip
I will risk about 0.50% of my portfolio on each position
The above plan is already in action with the following trades:
Current positions undertaken according to this plan are OCZ, SCTY, & FIVE.
SCTY was entered too early according to my third rule. Therefore the entry was only 80% within compliance with the plan.
FIVE conversely was entered in the afternoon, when the overall market showed signs of upward momentum. The first buyable dip was entered upon, and the position size was correct. 100 percent.
Don’t you know forces exist much greater than ours and they are determined to derail your momentum trade? GUY! You don’t want to play momentum trades too tight up here, at the precipice. You’ve got to be cool, relax, get hip, and get on their tracks.
As I type, TAN, FSLR, YGE, and ENPH are well off their lows, and you’re without solar stocks.
Time to play catch up, because they’re the best momo show in town.
Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:02pm ESTComments Off on Market Indecision Will Fleece You of Your Coin
Whether you trade weekly, daily, tic, range, or minute charts you MUST recognize a lack of trend and behave accordingly. To trade momentum there must be momentum. I know V.King would enjoy that sentence. Once you recognize conditions where momentum is gone, you must adjust to fading extremes or sideline yourself. That’s it.
I like to use EMAs to give a trend some visual clarity. When EMAs of different speeds (i.e. the 9 and 33 period) converge and then flatten out, that’s a strong indication the market is on pause. Such was the case all morning. Today it was easy for me to avoid because we were working inside a tight market profile and we had the Fed in the afternoon which I knew would give the market a pause. More times than I would like to admit, I haven’t been so astute. And every time I fail to recognize these conditions the alogs pick me to pieces.
I’ve been a doubter of any such trendless action most of June, but as the month drags on it’s becoming a distinct possibility that we’re entering a flat consolidation phase. My 9 and 33 are flattening out and going sideways. It would make sense too given that my momentum plays are all fizzling out. Take a look:
I’ve spent the last few weeks churning my portfolio with small wins and medium losses. All-in-all I’ve given back hard fought gains. Anyone who tells you the gains came easy is wrong and unwashed.
Today I cut most of my China junket. I sold off BIDU, YY, and MY. I sold WETF along with the Fly and I took some profits in CREE, keeping the position about ½ size.
You may notice a much less manic tone in my writing.
I’m up over 50 percent cash now and lost around 1 percent today. Current longs listed largest to smallest are as follows:
YGE, HMIN, IMMR, RVBD, CREE, SCTY, RGLD, TPX, and FB
I want to keep my speculative swing positions down. I’m getting confused, tracking so many positions. Plus liquidation becomes more taxing by my broker.
I’ll ride most of these through the trendless chop of the index. But I swear little allegiance to any and will cut to make room for others.
I don’t love the idea of shorting up here, but both T and JBLU look like great swing shorts to my eye.
Bottom Line: It’s summer now. We may still push higher but we’re showing signs of stalling momentum. This is the third major pullback too, it has a much lower win rate then the first two. HOWEVER, we’re on the proper side of the 33 EMA, my primary demarcation.
Apropos that I would get all excited about the LED industry last night and not over the weekend putting me one day behind the move. The kicker of it all was stalking GTAT yesterday but not pulling the trigger. I wanted to see a capitulation move lower. This is an example of an opportunity where getting half my position on would have worked. And given the gaptastic nature of AIXG, I don’t want to chase it higher. I’m shaking my fist at the entire industry. At least I have my CREE.
All last night I thought about how much I wished I had bought BIDU and SCTY into the bell. They both looked great on a closing basis. So I came to market and bought them both today. Now I don’t really want SCTY. I can be so fickle at these choppy junctures. No less than three times I’ve considered rolling all the SCTY funds into BIDU.
I’m getting really excited about this TPX trade, it’s working out well. Look at that weekly chart. Another strong weekly candle has to have you seriously considering this name for an intermediate term swing long. Yes, I’m talking my book.
I cut RENN and HSOL, but the rest of my China basket is in place, lined up in marching formation, ready for ramming speed. Actually HSOL looks ready for ramming speed too.
At one point I was 92 percent long. I had to adjust that down a bit. I cut ODP, RENN, HSOL, and DDD. All-in-all, I have too many longs if you ask me. I’m bombarded with great setups and my ADD has gotten the best of me. None of these trades looks bad at this point; they just don’t look as good as my other longs.
Now I’m sitting 75 percent long, awaiting The Fed. I’m very slightly red on the day, and my broker loves me.
Guys, there must be down days. And when we’re in the stratosphere, atop the treacherous K2, guided by our Sherpa—gentleman Ben—and a group of extorting Sherpa come and kick your pack mule down the mountain and demand monies…there’s going to be some casualties. You may need to hunker down low and take some hits. You need to be ready to sweep the leg.
As traders, we’re paid to take daily beatings from the market. It hardens you. HDGE was my worse loss of the year, trimming a cool three percent off my high water mark. Guess what? I crested my portfolio over that mark since then, and now I’m off my new peak by two percent. It happens fast. You have to keep your wits about you.
This may be the start of a peak-to-trough environment. This can last weeks. WEEKS! Oh the humanity. But before we can say that with any kind of confidence we need to see price acceptance below TWO, you heard me right TWO major areas of balance which are way above where this market could pull back and still be considered VERY constructive.
I’ll look at the primary and most actionable balance distribution in the morning.
I booked some winners that were lingering, some losers that were fingering, and some scratches that were carrying curious implications.
YELP was cut early. It was crowded, that’s how crowded flag breakdowns play out.
RGR was an early sale too. I caught the swing low, it’s been dead fish forever, when that first crazy sell frenzy happened in the spooz this morning I booked it.
I sold JRCC as it butted up against resistance. The Plan says I must sell logical price levels, even if it’s my last piece. I can always buy it back at a better price, at least that’s my mentality.
I booked GS because the devil’s been shorting it, I had 6 percent plus gains, and the daily candle looked nasty. Financials have been a big driver of this move, we could rotate out of them and still see the tape flat/higher.
I sold SCTY late afternoon, after adding to my position early. Net-net I make over 10 percent playing this crack rock. Awesome, except it was good for over 20 percent at one point. A win is a win, I suppose.
I added to my CREE investment. They’re a great company. Remember, this is a multi-quarter hold after booking massive gains in the name trading style Q1. I’m wearing my investor hat on this one. That being said, it also printed a nasty daily candle.
I caught the breakout in IMMR early. It’s this type of aggression that allows me to not experience much emotion when the breakout sputters out like this one did. It has Fly power behind it, so I’m giving it room.
Bottom line: you’re surrounded by algorithms wielding meat cleavers, protect your neck with profit scales and stop losses. My cash pushed way up into the bell, damn near 50 percent. I don’t like lazy cash so I’ll be hunting tonight.
Tue May 21, 2013 4:28pm ESTComments Off on Getting Faded
It’s been another action packed day, albeit in a more concentrated bit of stocks. I almost looked wrong in boasting about my sub $50 RGLD purchase when the morning dipped briefly below. It should be noted that this was again a buying opportunity. Although we’re not out of the woods yet on this long position, it has constructive written all over it.
YELP started flagging nicely just below $32 around lunchtime. I added to my long thinking, “this is a good looking flag.” When I took to twitter to blast out my actions to the world I saw no less than four traders talking about the exact same breakout. The move was faded.again. This trade could flush lower, just be aware of that. We are all seeing the same telegraphed pennant at 52 week highs. Build a solid risk profile.
I thought my reasoning behind staying long JRCC was interesting, but it received zero airtime. If you’re into market dynamics, check it out. I scaled a piece around the three handle and have a 1/3 runner left on the books.
I closed out CRZO because it printed an ugly daily candle. I’m looking for constant gratification up here in the froth. I’m not looking to wait out and peak-to-trough foolishness in names that I have zero conviction in beyond price.
Ironically enough and completely contrary to the prior paragraph, I held my SCTY runner and watched it melt like a cheap ice cream cone down 12 percent. The position is still 8 percent in the green due to a sweet entry and there are gains booked to back it up. I’m not going to let one down day scare me out of the cocaine party. It will take at least two.
Final thought: A cheap ice cream cone? Does an expensive ice cream cone exist?
Mon May 20, 2013 11:48am ESTComments Off on Hot Trading Action in The Stocks
Stocks are strong right out the rip this morning, with the S&P tide pushing all these jet boats (momo stocks) higher.
In the futures, I’ve traded four contracts, all to the long side, earning 1.5 handles, 3 handles, 1.5 handles, and a runner. UPDATE: Closed the runner, 3.25 handles.
I kicked out SAM after initially thinking I would make it an investment. I don’t want to be invested in SAM. I like Pabst if I’m going low end, New Castle if I’m being normal, BUD for sports drink, and anything brewed at the micro capacity from Michigan all the time. So why own SAM?
I sold LOCK too because it had a chance to be great and it decided going sideways was cool. What a wimpy stock.
The solar trade is complete madness. I love it. These ‘late stage” conditions give a huge edge to the small trader who can ferret in and out of the crazy names. My wild boy is Scotty. SCTY is the proverbial stone that kills two birds, giving me a piece of Elon’s sweet ass and solar exposure. With that in mind, I’ve taken two scales, and am down to a runner on SCTY. You guys are crazy so I want to see how far your crazy gets me.
Don’t sleep on JRCC, it’s way out of balance after we learned Friday that they bought a little more time in their debt structure. I want to see the imbalance push higher, obviously.
New longs are YELP, and CRZO and cash is low low low, 25 percent.
Sometimes you have to let a trade effervesce, gently bubbling higher. Such is the case with LOCK, apparently.
Other times you give the trade room, and only offer it your left hand. This is how I’m getting back into my good friend RGLD, our favorite Senator’s mining situation.
Then there’s downright degeneracy, demanding nothing but instant gratification because well, you’re a degenerate and want it NOW! If you bought SCTY this afternoon and didn’t have this mentality, I tip my hat to you and your courage.
Let me be frank for a moment. This has been a fantastic, albeit slightly frantic, day for the bulls and America in general. These markets are enfuego, IN MAY. I really hope portfolio managers took their stupid axiom to heart and missed all this capital appreciation. For I hate them, mostly.
Raul worked in the financial services industry once. Let’s just say there wasn’t enough trading, if you know what I mean.
My happy place is buying and selling things, all the time, like one of those Pawn Star folk.
Into the weekend, my cash is down to 30 percent.
I’ve put a shit ton of longs on, more than I can properly manage. This weekend, I’ll be ranking these and consolidating them down. But as it stands, here’s the look, by size: