NASDADQ futures are set to open gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price spent most of Globex trading down, but in a slow and methodical manner.  As we head into the open, price is pressing down into the low-end of our multi-day balance.

At 10am we’ll hear a read of the Labor Market Conditions Index Change, and 11:30am both a 3- and 6-month T-Bill will be auctioned, and at 3pm Consumer Credit data is set for release.

Last week volatility receded significantly, the most we’ve seen all year.  There was a big trend day Tuesday then the rest of the week was spent consolidating on the upper quadrant of the move.

Friday printed a normal variation up day, with sellers responding late in the session to close the day flat.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4323.  From here look for a move up to 4333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller push off the open, take out overnight low 4296 and trigger a liquidation down to 4279.  Look for responsive buyers here and two way trade to ensue, perhaps with a late day gap fill up to 4323.

Hypo 3 sellers accelerate down through the zipper, down through 4279 setting up a full-on liquidation down to 4234.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4323 and push and sustain trade up above 4333 setting up a move to test last Friday’s high 4355.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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The only real noise being made on this quiet Friday session is coming from the overbought camp, who are pointing to NYMO scores and other factors are ground for concern heading into the weekend.  Yet what strikes me about our recent ascent is the solid nature of it.  I am not convinced stocks are ready to roll over.

Value has been migrating higher in an orderly fashion.  In the NASDAQ, for instance, we bottomed and formed value then migrated higher.  Then we formed value again, very clean, then migrated higher to our current value–which sits with near/perfect symmetry at 4327.  See below:

Intermediate term, this type of action is as healthy as it gets.  It has been relentless, and occasionally setting some legit bear traps.

Something that will not sit well for me, despite all this progress, it the current swing low, which was set during globex.  These tend to be weak.

Nevertheless, a great migration of value is upon us.  From south-to-north, the progress is palatable and setting up some nice sector rips along the way.  The low is deep down below, for now.

 

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the session gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price held yesterday’s mid before working up to the weekly high. At 8:30am Non-Farm Payrolls came out strong.   US February Nonfarm Payrolls +242k vs +195k expected and +151k previous.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. Price opened flat and sellers worked into the tape early on. They pushed below the Wednesday low briefly before finding a responsive bid and working back up through a good part of the range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4320.75. from there look for a move down to 4309.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 Buyers push off the open, take out overnight high 4339 and work higher to test above this week’s globex high 4357.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers take price down through 4309.25 setting up a move to test yesterday’s low 4293.50 setting up a liquidation down to 4279 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after a second consecutive normal overnight session.  Statistically speaking, both range and volume were normal on a balanced session which managed to hold and slightly build upon yesterday’s range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out slightly worse than expected.

Yesterday ADP Employment data looked better-than-expected.  However both job reports are merely a preview for tomorrow morning’s Non-farm Payroll data, which is the biggest economic event this week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing, Factory Orders, and Durable Goods at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day.  We came into the day gap down and spent most of the session slowly working lower.  During the afternoon session the market printed a failed auction when it 1-ticked the low-of-day then sharply reversed.  Price then traversed the daily range and exceeded the morning high by 3-ticks before closing in the upper quadrant, earning the session a neutral extreme classification.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work the market higher.  Look for a move to close the Tuesday gap up at 4337.50 then up through overnight high 4344.50.  Look for responsive seller just above overnight high and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4344.50 then set their sights on yesterday’s globex high 4357.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4317.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4308.75 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday down 10 points after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to extend upon yesterday’s trend during Globex and push deep into 01/07 range before setting into two way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday.  At 8:15am ADP Employment data came in better-than-expected.  The initial reaction is selling.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up, or conviction buying day.  After opening gap up, initiative buyers stepped in big time and rotated the market higher.  Their accumulation was sustained throughout the entire session and the market closed on session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4337.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4347.50 and then a move to take out overnight low 4325.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close gap up to 4337.50 then sustain trade above 4347.50 setting up a move to target overnight high 4357.75.  Stretch targets to the upside are 4398.75 then 4406.50.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 4325.50 and continue lower to test the 4300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are set to gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Price worked below the Monday low print early on but held last Thursday’s range before turning in a strong rotation higher.  Since then price has balanced around the midpoint from yesterday’s trade.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am followed by a 52- and 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down day.  An early two-way auction gave way to buying which stalled before last week’s high.  Sellers then worked price through the entire range and we closed the day near session low.  Overall price action is flat as buyers and sellers crowd into these price levels.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4203.25.  From here look for responsive buyers to emerge and work to target overnight high 4242.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 4242.50 early on but stall out ahead of 4250 setting up a move to fill the overnight gap down to 4203.25.  Look for sellers to stall out around the 4200 century mark and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers take out overnight high 4242.50 early and work up through 4250 setting up a move to target 4270 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch target is the “google” gap up at 4289.75.

Hypo 4 sellers are aggressive, close overnight gap down to 4203.25 then take out overnight low 4180.25 to target the MCVPOC at 4171.  Sellers continue lower to target 4151 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves

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The NASDAQ futures are priced to start the week flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price struggled to hold Friday’s lower quadrant before giving way to selling that poked the micro-composite low volume node [MCLVN] before buyers stepped in.  The MCLVN is lined up with the support level buyers defended numerous times last Thursday.  Since then buyers spent the morning working price back to flat.

On the economic calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy.  We came into the week with a big gap up and buyers sustained the gap through Monday.  Tuesday was a slow trend lower ahead of a large gap down into Wednesday.  An early balanced auction gave way to a strong trend up.  Thursday extended upon those gains.

Last Friday price opened gap up and spent the rest of the session on a slow grind lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work price up through overnight high 4238.50.  Look for sellers up at4242.50 and two way trade to ensues above 4200.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4242.50 and sustain trade above it setting up a secondary leg to target 4270 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work lower off the open to test below last Friday low 4225.  Sellers accelerate lower from here to target 4200 then overnight low 4184.50.  Look for a strong responsive bid at the MCVPOC 4171 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to open gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  During Globex, price spent most of the time trading higher and managed to briefly trade beyond the Alphabet euphoria gap left behind on 02/01 before settling into two-way trade.  At 8:30am GDP data came out mostly in line.  The initial reaction appear to be a buy.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Personal Consumption Expenditure and the final February reading of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count data at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.   Price opened flat.  An early push lower was defended by responsive buyers who turned the market well-above the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s trend day.  By early afternoon buyers turned initiative and managed to rally price through to the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4267 before finding buyers who work to target overnight high 4293.25.  Look for a test above the February high 4309.25 then sellers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through 4267 setting up a full overnight gap fill down to 4245.  Responsive buyers are overrun as sellers test below overnight low 4240.75 briefly before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers thrust off the open, strong, and take out overnight high 4293.25 early.  Then they sustain trade above 4309.25 setting up a fast rally.  Upside target is 4330.25 with a stretch target of 4353.

Hypo 4 sellers trigger a liquidation.  They close overnight gap down to 4245 then sustain trade below overnight low 4240.75 setting up a fast move down to 4225 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are flat heading into Thursday after a balanced overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price pushed up near the weekly high before trading lower and forming two-way trade that held the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range.  at 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in well above expectations while Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme trend day.  Sellers worked into trade early on after a large gap down and managed to push the market range extension down [briefly] before discovering a strong responsive bid.  Buyers turned initiative on the session and price managed to trend higher for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 4229.25  and target 4238.50 before sellers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 4229.25 and sustain trade above 4238.50 setting up a secondary leg to target 4256.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open and work lower to take out overnight low 4186.50 and work lower to target 4166.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers move below 4166.50 and sustain trade below it setting up a liquidation move down to 4140 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are priced to open gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Balanced trade gave way to sellers who worked down into last Tuesday’s range before finding a small responsive bid.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications data came out way lower than last month.  Little reaction to the data so far.

Also on the economic docket today we have Market Services/Composite PMI, New Home Sales at 10am, Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Morning buyers made the small push up to close the overnight gap and held Monday’s range until just after the 10am Consumer Confidence read.  After the data sellers stepped in hard.  The managed to become initiative after the initial sale and continued pushing price lower to close the weekend gap [recall: Bulls Push Their Luck and Start Another Week Gap Up]

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4144 before finding sellers who work to take out overnight low 4101.25 then target the open gap down at 4092.50.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, take out overnight low 4101.25 and close the gap down at 4092.50 before finding buyers and going into two way trade below 4125.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go triggering liquidation.  Trade down through 4092.50 early on and sustain trade below it setting up a secondary leg to target 4070.

Hypo 4 buyers managed to push up through 4144 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to close the overnight gap at 4158.75.  From there they continue higher to take out overnight high 4168.50.  Stretch targets are 4172 then 4182.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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