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Bulls react positively to cooler-than-expected CPI data // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second day of the first full trading week of September with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the bottom-side of Monday’s midpoint until 8:30 CPI data introduced some buyers. CPI data came in a bit below expectations and investors reacted with buyer orders that worked price up to 15,500 which is still well within the Monday range. As we approach cash open price is hovering around 15,00.

There are no other economic events scheduled for today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down that kind of also resembles a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up in range. After a brief open two-way auction sellers stepped in and drove price lower, effectively closing the overnight gap and continuing down through the Friday low. Sellers worked down into the Friday 08/27 range before any responsive buyers appeared. Price then chopped along the lows for the rest of the session, making little new lows along the way and pinning the value point of control down near the lows but eventually closing back near the daily midpoint. The day structure resembles a lowercase letter-b shape indicating a long liquidation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to continue the buying campaign spurred on by CPI data. Look for buyers to claim 15,500 and sustain trade above it early on setting up a run to 15,571.50.

Hypo 2 sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 15,439.50. Look for buyers below at 15,400 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 15,311.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +90 into Monday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first full trading week of September up +90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight. Just before 2am price poked below the Friday low and was met with strong responsive buying. Since then price has worked back up into Friday range and as we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a bit of strength Tuesday morning was faded. Then steady selling all week. Eventually closing out the week on the lows after Friday of heavy selling.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up in range. After an open-two-way auction failed to take out the Thursday high sellers stepped in and drove down into the gap, effectively closing it before New York lunch. Around noon price probed below the Thursday low before making a sharp move back to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the mid and we sold off into the close and closed on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is fora gap-and-go higher. Buyers sustain trade above 15,500 setting up a run to 15,570.25.

Hypo 2 sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 15,447 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down through overnight low 15,405.75. Look for buyers down at 15,400 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

An outcast drifts into the metaverse

Greetings lads. I am in a strange place out here in the budding metaverse.

The old guard and/nor the cool kids of finance twitter never accepted me. I am not one of them. You can’t interact with a guy who tweets the types of things I tweet at 3am. They have like rules and clients and stuff.

Crypto folks are a bit nicer, but I am certainly not one of them either.

I’m not really one of us.

Sometimes I feel like a stranger in my own life.

This is in some ways by design.

My old man is a foreigner. Italian. Yet I’ve never been Italian enough for the local Italian clans. Fuckin’guys.

Mum is as American as a barnyard who ha, and I suppose I am most like her. Momma Raul is strong. She can pry a cow’s mouth open and pull its tongue out. She can punch the window out of a Buick and pull the driver out by their collar. Mom Raul is mellowing out as we enter the ’20s but her hot hotheadedness back in the ’90s was really something.

I come from a long line of angry men.

The only place I feel at easy is amongst the freaks. Fellow outcasts. Mangled up scar faces with tangled up minds. I find a splendid tranquility when I am surrounded by druggies and transvestites and the whole carnival of taboo types who inhabit the local underground.

Yet drugs aren’t really my thing. Lately my drug of choice is diesel fume. It makes me feel like I’m on a military campaign and by golly if you’re not with it look out. Haven’t touched a mushroom or the reefer since like early June. I like coffee and beer.

Not even liquor so much. Liquor takes the wind out of my sails but cheap ale gives me vigor on the farm. It fortifies my muscles and mind for the seemingly insurmountable task of hand clearing nearly an acre of urban land inhabited by transients and pheasant.

There are good lads who I graduated with that have built families of their own and it makes me happy to see it. I keep the idea of building a family on the back burner…just a little more success. Then a little more.

Anyhow I feel myself being pulled in two directions as I test settling into domestic life. One is acquiescent to sitting around doing nothing. Watching movies and petting dogs. The other is angling to strap into some virtual reality and be a bunny.

Welp. That’s all I’ve been thinking about this morning.

I am super duper big leauge bullish on TWTR. This is financial advice. You are receiving financial advice from a man high on diesel fume who wakes up at 4am Sunday and toils until his mind gives out, then toils until his body gives out, then eats a giant plate of vegetables. Sometimes some FISH MEAT. Then sleeps on the ground.

I’ve been sleeping on the ground lately. Beds too soft. I unrolled my hiking pad in the living room and sleep on the ground. My financial advice is to buy TWTR.

I am trying to figure out when their next earnings announcement is because I want to buy call options. I haven’t bought any puts or calls yet in 2021 and this feels like the right time to lever up. Twitter is exploding with interaction and advertisement and if Jacked Dorsey doesn’t blow the doors of expectations this quarter idk maybe Twitter never will.

The next real bloody daily candle to print on TWTR (hopefully this week) know dear humble Raul [dhR] is shopping for either November or December out-of-the-money TWTR call options.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, September 12th 2021

And now the 355th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 09/13/21 – 09/17/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.44, medium bear.  Strength Monday. Sellers to pressure the tape into mid week. Reflex rally back to unchanged by the weekend.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Bit of strength Tuesday morning was faded. Then steady selling all week. Eventually closing out the week on the lows after Friday of heavy selling.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Steady selling all week long (holiday-shortened week). NASDAQ slightly bullish divergent.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Negative skew after a major positive skew two weeks back.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Holiday pivot?

Sellers pressured the tape all last week. The idea behind the holiday pivot is simple. That collective investor sentiment shifts around a major U.S. holiday and leads to a change in the overall direction of the markets.

With quad witching on deck and risk sectors all running hot, we are contextually set up for an uptick in volatility.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Strength Monday. Sellers to pressure the tape into mid week. Reflex rally back to unchanged by the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors on watch

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports appear to be back into balance.

See below:

Semiconductors printed a somewhat bearish candle on Friday but the recent activity still has the look of discovery up. Seeing this index hold up makes it difficult to become overly cautious. As long as this index is printing higher lows, bulls have the overall edge.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish last week after being neutral two reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for two consecutive weeks prior to that

We had a Bunker Buster twenty eight weeks ago.

Neutral heading into next week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Friday, August 27th  Stocklabs went overbought on the 6-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs until Monday, September 13th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. Twelve Month Technical Oversold

On Friday, September 10th Stocklabs went technical oversold on the 12-month algorithm. This signal has bearish statistics. The cycle runs through Friday, September 24th end of day.

VIII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Improvise. Adapt. Overcome.” – Bear Grylls

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Sneaky rollforward day, expect chicanery, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing inside the Wednesday range. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out better than expected. As we approach cash opne price is hovering above the Wednesday midpoint.

Today most active traders rollforward to the December contract. However this report will quote prices from the September contract through Friday.

Also on the economic calendar today we ahve 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The session began with a slight gap up. Sellers drove down into the open, resolving the gap and nearly taking out the Tuesday low before a responsive bid stepped in. Said bidders worked price a few handles above the midpoint before sellers stepped back in and made a new low, effectively making a new low for September. There was one final attempt lower right around New York lunchtime before buyers stepped back in. We then spent the rest of the session grinding higher, eventually buyers recaptured the midpoint and we ended the day chopping above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up to 15,700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 15,546.75 and tag 15,500.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up to 15,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ flat into holiday-shortened week // here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second week of September about five points below the Friday close after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range. Price drifted slightly lower overnight after printing a new record high early in the globex session. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 10am, 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week the major indices had a bit of strength early in the week and then a steady drift along the highs into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down in range. Buyers drove into the open, quickly resolving the gap. Buyers continued the drive for the first 30 minutes of trade but a sharp excess high formed before buyers could take out the Thursday high. Instead price checked back to the daily mid. Buyers defended the mid sending price into a steady drift along the daily high, eventually making a range extension around 1:45pm New York. Price drifting along the high into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 15,708 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 15,609.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 15,500 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Overconfidence is trouble

Speculating is a game played best when the spirit is zen and the body sufficiently depleted. I’ve been at this trading business full time now for nearly ten years. Admittedly, I do not sit in front of the markets from open-to-close, lording over a set of computer screens. My approach is more akin to a sprint.

I used to be one hell of a sprinter in real life.

Anyhow I noticed myself becoming overconfident last weekend and wrote a little note in red marker to myself saying, “Cut risk in half.”

And I did.

Last week I traded with half the size I normally do and I traded it just as earnestly as I would normal size. The win streak continued. I earned less than I could have. Which is fine.

Now I feel some humility. Perhaps that is a good thing. We don’t know.

Heading into next week my signals are crossed. Stocklabs remains in a bullish cycle clean through to the Monday after Labor Day but Indexmodel is Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the third time in four weeks.

Seasonality stats indicate September is the most bearish month of the year for the equity complex.

Summer is coming to an end. People are finally dropping the pandemic cosplay shtick and acting like normal fucking humans again, for better-or-worse. We are in another transitional phase.

I suppose I’m just typing out my thoughts and not really adding any value to you there, the reader. So be it. I’ll say okay for now and we’ll pick things back up Tuesday.

Raul Santos, September 5th 2021

And now the 354th edition of Strategy Session.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 09/06/21 – 09/10/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.40, medium bull*.  Choppy week that perhaps sees selling pressure early in the week but recovers and holds the highs into the weekend.

*Index model flagged Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias, see Section IV.

U.S. markets will be closed Monday, September 7th in observation of Labor Day.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Bit of strength early in the week and then a steady drift along the highs.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

A second week of non-ideal sector leadership. Tech hanging tough but investors can be seen rotating into more risk averse areas of the complex.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Ledger skewed slightly positive after majorly skewing positive on the prior report.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Season change

September is a vibe for sure. Summer is coming to an end. Fields are being sown once more before winter. Kids are headed to college and school. Folks really like American football this time of year. Pumpkin spice lattes.

I don’t often check out the seasonality tab inside Stocklabs, but when I am feeling moody I do. Turns out September is statistically the most bearish month of the year.

Perhaps folks check back in with reality after savoring their final few weeks of summer freedom?

We don’t know. And also past performance is not indicative of future results. That said, what is better to back our decision process than data?

Seasonality paired with the Rose Colored Sunglasses signal issued by IndexModel this week has me considering cutting my risk a bit via raising some cash.

Developing…

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy week that perhaps sees selling pressure early in the week but recovers and holds the highs into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors put in a higher low, transports interesting

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports broke their downtrend a few weeks back and have been consolidating above it since. This is a nice clean chart to read here. My primary expectation is for buyers to make a push out of the current intermediate term range.

See below:

Semiconductors may have printed a higher low on the way to continuing discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish again after being neutral on the last report and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for two consecutive weeks prior to that

We had a Bunker Buster twenty seven weeks ago.

Bearish heading into next week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Friday, August 27th Exodus went overbought on the 6-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs until Monday, September 13th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Keep focused on the step in front of you. Nothing else matters.” – Bear Grylls

Trade simple, totally focus on the next trade

Comments »

Rally extends into second day of September // here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second day of September with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight. After briefly poking below the Monday low price stabilized. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out in-line with expectations and as we approach cash open price is hovering along the Monday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up beyond the prior two days’ ranges and a drive higher. Said drive achieved new record highs before flagging in a tight range for many hours. Late in the day sellers reversed the morning drive making a late range extension down and closing near the lows after nearly filling the overnight gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 15,623. Sellers continue lower, taking out overnight low 15,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through Wednesday high 15,699 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 15,555.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Month-end // consumer confidence on deck // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of August with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher overnight until about 5:30am New York, marking a new record high. Since then price has retraced the overnight move, effectively returning inside the Monday range and dipping a bit below the Monday close. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up beyond the Friday range. Buyers drove into the open, campaigning price right up to 15,500. A bit of back-and-forth at the century mark occurred before the campaign continued making new highs, eventually tagging 15,600 and sustaining trade up at this next century mark into the close. This effectively migrated value up to the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 15.677.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers hold buyers around 15,605 setting up a move down through overnight low 15,563. Look for buyers just below at 15,550.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers effectively erase much of the Monday rally, trading down to 15,500.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ drifting into month-end // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Monday in August gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked slightly higher overnight, making a new record high and then drifting along it. As we approach cash open price is up above the Friday high.

On the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a big gap up across the board to start things off followed by a conviction buy trend Monday. Steady gains through Wednesday. Selling pressure Thursday immediately negated Friday morning by another day of conviction buying. The Russell 2000 lead the way.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. It nearly resembled a double distribution trend up and these labels are only generalities but given the auction behavior I am classifying it as a normal variation up.

The session began with a slight gap up in range. After a brief two-way auction sellers made a try at closing the overnight gap. They could not and this was followed by a initiative buyers spiking price higher, to new all-time highs. Price nearly checked back to the midpoint before buyers came in and began a slow grind higher, a slow grind that migrated value up to the highs and made new highs. We ended near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a tight drift along the highs, ranging between 15,450 and 15,420.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers campaign price up to 15,500.

Hypo 3 sellers close the gap down to 15,423 then take out overnight low 15,415.50. Look for buyers down at 15,400 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Corn fed and bullish

It’s feast and famine at the House of Raul. I went down this estranged life path and fully accept the consequences.

Sold a jpeg Saturday. Turned a one into a five and it may end up being a grave error.

Taking a quick profit on an investment never feels good. I tend not to sell things. But with jpegs I find myself casting snap judgements based off the most absurd metrics. A tweet came across my stream suggesting Jack Paul was buying World of Women jpegs. I loath Jake Paul. Artchick.eth seems like a nice lady but not nice enough to brush aside Jim Paul and his tide of influence. Then like one of those Las Vegas DJs Kaladescope or Key-o-dee or something (I refuse to look back) said he was into World of Women and I was like you know what? Fuck him too I’m from Detroit bitch we birthed techno and we still grime.

So I sold World of Woman. Three weeks. Turned a one into a five.

Spent the morning figuring out how to put 2 back into jpegs because I was suddenly filled with anxiety that I was under exposed to jpegs.

This too may turn out to be a grave mistake.

But I have a nice lazy lion now that I do believe resembles my current state, and that’s enough for me right now.

You see lads, I truly have a rare look. It is quite degenerate. These milestones of life keep sort of coming and going, and I just keep chasing paper and chunks of earth.

Check out this week’s Strategy Session. I will be bullish heading into September until otherwise noted. I wish I hadn’t been bearish last week but fortune’s wheel did spin in my favor with that early Monday rally. It was early enough to spook me from doing anything crazy, like shorting the NASDAQ. I did short Wednesday, and for a moment that looked like a solid trade. I hustled the opening bells okay last week and that’s all I am really supposed to do—execute the signals put out by Stocklabs/IndexModel and hustle opening bells on the NASDAQ.

I’ve been eating so much homegrown corn and summer squash and onion and tomato that my skin is smooth and glows and all the wrinkles typically found on a 36-year-old meat homo aren’t anywhere to be seen. I am smooth and non-porous, like a fiberglass swimming pool. Maintaining 185lbs of cultivated muscle on a vegitable diet requires eating lots of plant meat and right now I am growing most of it myself.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, August 29th 2021

And now for the 353rd Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 08/30/21 – 09/03/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.50, medium bull.  A bit of weakness Monday is met with strong demand leading to a week-long rally. Consumer confidence data out Tuesday may serve to strengthen the rally, as may the nonfarm payroll data due out Friday morning.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big gap up across the board to start the week followed by a conviction buy trend Monday. Steady gains through Wednesday. Selling pressure Thursday immediately negated Friday morning by another day of conviction buying. The Russell 2000 lead the way.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Not the ideal sector leadership, but overall a fairly broad market rally.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Massive skew to the buy side, effectively negating the big negative skews we’ve had on our radar.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Fresh signal

With the 6-month hybrid overbought signal generated Friday on the close we have a fresh reading to begin trading the algorithm again.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

A bit of weakness Monday is met with strong demand leading to a week-long rally. Consumer confidence data out Tuesday may serve to strengthen the rally, as may the nonfarm payroll data due out Friday morning.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors snap range, breakout

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports had what seemed like a bit of a false start, breaking out from the downtrend, but that eventually lead to more upward discovery last week.

See below:

Semiconductors charged back higher, effectively exceeding the range we’ve been monitoring. It appears we have returned to discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after being Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for two consecutive weeks.

We had a Bunker Buster twenty-six weeks ago.

Neutral heading into next week. No bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Friday, August 27th Exodus went overbought on the 6-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs until Monday, September 13th.

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If you risk nothing, you gain nothing.” – Bear Grylls

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