We Should Close Near the Lows

Looking at some of my Godly indicators, I can tell you with a certain amount of certainty, barring martians landing on the NYSE and buying up all of our companies on the cheap this afternoon, we should close down between 2-5%.

The blood in the Dow and top Nasdaq stocks are too much to overcome, especially on a grim Friday afternoon.

You can fuck around all you want, playing with oil, banks and tech; but at the end of the day, this fucker eats pavement.

On the other hand, the stubbornness of the banks/Chinese cocksuckers is quite impressive. As a result, I’ve been buying small quantities of JPM, willing to lose money on the trade, just to hedge the upside on my insane FAZ position.

Remind me to never buy/sell 300% etf’s again.

Speaking of which, I’ve been buying ERY, which is also a lunatic etf. I must admit, all of this leverage rattles my cage a bit. As sure as I’m sitting here, in my non-staples chair, truckloads of unwashed peasants are throwing away the inheritance in this instruments of hell.

Where’s the SEC? I mean, the reason why we are in this position is due to excessive leverage, no?

The answer: let uneducated idiots try it too!

Unfuckingbelievable.

The breakdown in oil/gas is pervasive. It is infected the psyche of our dear friends in the middle east and Venezuela. Expect massive bankruptcies in the space, inside of 12 months. Many of this ham and eggers mismanaged at the top. As a result, Russia will be forced to devalue its currency, within 3 months.

Write it down.

Once again, money is flooding into treasuries. Is it a coincidence that ever since Paulson doled out billions to the banks there has been a parabolic move up in treasuries? Do you think some of our banking executives are stashing the money in t-bills, instead of lending it out?

Get the fuck…

One sector with marginal strength are the mortgage players: NLY, CMO, ANH and RWT. The theory: with mortgage rates coming down, people will start to refinance again. Who knows?

If you think we will rally off a -533,000 employment number, you’re out of your God damned mind. In the event that we do rally, defying all laws of logic and reason, dating back to the ancient Greek days, “The Fly” will be sure to cordially sell into it, mind you, with the utmost amounts of energy and conviction—as if he were punching holes through office grade sheet rock (out of sequence, makes no sense, I know).

Here’s the cold hard facts:

America will be embedded in a deep recession, until late 2010.

There is NO FUCKING WAY the market will be up in 2009, in light of what just occurred.

The shocking decline in oil happened too fast. As a result, many states will “enjoy” budget short falls.

Although it would be nice to see the U.S. savings rate climb, in the process, it will be incredibly debilitating to the economy. Think for a moment: how many stores did The Gap open up, based upon a loose credit environment?

Look, I am not saying we will fall off a cliff, like Wild E. Cayote. Just don’t get overly optimistic about a quick turn in the markets.

With my money, I hedged my FAZ position with small buys in JPM, down a buck. And, I’ve been buying ample amounts of ERY/DUG, due to the fact that oil is fucked on a spindle. And, I sold out of all of my TNA, for a loss. And, I blew out of my GME, for a gain.

Basically, I think SKF/FAZ go much higher. However, in the event men with tight orange leotards try to “bottom pick,” owning God’s bank (JPM) is not a terrible idea.

NOTE: It appears my GVA short may finally start performing.

What a coincidence.

In 2008, as the stock market cratered and the housing market collapsed, more young members of the Army, Air Force and Navy decided to re-up. While several factors might explain the rise in re-enlistments, including a decline in violence in Iraq, Pentagon officials acknowledge that bad news for the economy is usually good news for the military.

In fact, the Pentagon just completed its strongest recruiting year in four years.

Now we can get ready for the big one.

UPDATE: iBC’s own, Woodshedder, is revealed here. And, he was interviewed by The Wall Street Transcript here. Two things: Wood is not nearly as ugly as I envisioned him to be. And, secondly, he is becoming a media whore. What’s next, CNBC?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxLk3uf2msk 450 300]

Fuck this market and everything it represents. May the shareholders of XOM suffer from dysentery and lose all of their money, while getting their heads chewed off by alligators.

Although I timed the release of some of my upside ETF’s today with perfection, I can’t get too excited.The market is a fucking meat grinder and investors are the meat.

The one thing worth betting on, with the family inheritance, is that oil stocks are fucked on a spindle. As a point in fact, I like ERY and DUG here, with the confidence and fervor of 10 mountain lions inside of a locked room full of U.S. congressmen.

Going into tomorrow’s numbers, I want to be net short, despite the fact that the market may buy on the bad news. There comes a point when buying bad news is utterly fucktarded. I heard people say it before: “bad news is not hurting the tape. Therefore the market is a buy.”

Bullshit.

How many times has that worked for you, really?

Eventually, the overwhelming tide of bad news rips your face off and sends your portfolio to zero, where it belongs, if I may be so bold as to say so.

In summary:

Aside from my small short position in GVA, I am long FAZ, ERY, DUG, REW, EEV and FXP, with upside hedges in a variety of equities and TNA, BGU.

I sold 10,000 FAS @ $24.56.

Taking off some hedges.

UPDATE: I sold 20,000 FAS, north of $23. I will hold 10,000, just in case

UPDATE: I am buying some FAZ, sub $51.

UPDATE: I sold 5,000 CAL for a quick intraday fuck you.

UPDATE: I bought multiple blocks of EEV, ERY and DUG.

I bought 5,000 BDK @ $43.43.

Disclaimer: If you buy BDK because of this post, in the year of the dog, pestilence and famine will descend upon your neighborhood. And, you may lose money.

I bought 5,000 CAL @ $16.

Disclaimer: If you buy CAL because of this post, in the year of the pig, great miseries will afflict those who supply black liquids, which will cause disease, war and starvation. And, you may lose money.

Putting my bias aside, there are a number of stocks that appear to be breaking out, regardless of how bad the fundamentals are.

Via The PPT, here are some stocks worth monitoring (stocks sorted by intraday hybrid score change of 10% or more/ hybrid score over 2.50+).

JPM 36.5 2.73
UPS 31.37 2.68
SFD 29.9 2.52
BZH 29.9 2.52
ODP 29.52 2.72
CAL 29.49 2.81
PRU 28.57 2.61
CBL 28.57 2.61
WHR 27.1 2.72
JBLU 27 3.01
KMX 26.61 2.76
HAIN 26.61 2.76
CYN 25.83 3.02
PHH 25.78 2.83
KSWS 25.52 3.59
MW 25.11 2.89
MAT 24.91 3.36
LEG 24.89 2.91
AGN 24.27 2.97
LHO 24.1 3.09
JCG 24.07 2.68
COH 24.05 3.25

Personally, I am attracted to retail, considering how beaten down the sector is. Unfortunately, I sold a lot of my M yesterday. However, I still own TBL and GME. Other names that are on my watch list include: VLCM, DECK, GCO, JOSB, ARO, DBRN, GYMB, BJ, SKS and GES.

As insane as my holdings are, actually, they are working today, thanks to the fucktardedness of those who created the 300% etf’s. My FAS (300% upside banks) is outstripping my FAZ (300% downside banks), by at least 2%, which makes no sense. And, FXP is up a few. On top of that, the few individual longs that I kept, like M, GU and GME, are doing just fine. And, even though the market is down, TNA is up.

Go figure.

Sometime soon, I want to sell all of my upside etf’s and embrace the downside, with great vigor. However, the market is as stubborn as an Ox in shit. So, for now, I’ll just wait it, keeping an open eye out for some sort of evil anvil to drop down on you bullish fuckers.

As an aside, “The Fly” is sick with some sort of dark aged plague. So, as you could understand, blogging isn’t exactly all that interesting to me right now. Nonetheless, I’ll make an effort to update you corn can fuckers, whenever I’m feeling good about my positions and shit.