Don’t Fade the Idiot Rally Yet

As insane as my holdings are, actually, they are working today, thanks to the fucktardedness of those who created the 300% etf’s. My FAS (300% upside banks) is outstripping my FAZ (300% downside banks), by at least 2%, which makes no sense. And, FXP is up a few. On top of that, the few individual longs that I kept, like M, GU and GME, are doing just fine. And, even though the market is down, TNA is up.

Go figure.

Sometime soon, I want to sell all of my upside etf’s and embrace the downside, with great vigor. However, the market is as stubborn as an Ox in shit. So, for now, I’ll just wait it, keeping an open eye out for some sort of evil anvil to drop down on you bullish fuckers.

As an aside, “The Fly” is sick with some sort of dark aged plague. So, as you could understand, blogging isn’t exactly all that interesting to me right now. Nonetheless, I’ll make an effort to update you corn can fuckers, whenever I’m feeling good about my positions and shit.

Okay, I am really feeling this set up here. It reminds of the days when all of you ass-lickers went long, back in March, only to have Stuntman Mike peel off on your fucking craniums.

I’m all in, with hardly any cash. My conundrum is the hodge podge of long/short etf’s on the sheets. However, I prefer to be positioned that way, in order to time my sells. In other words, into a rally, I will let go of my upside etf’s, while holding the inverses. When I am 100% convinced of a breakdown, I will take the proceeds and average in.

This is a very delicate trade, which requires plutonium powered time machines and space alien machine swagger.

Don’t try this shit at home. You will get merc’d.

Back to the real world.

The NYC Port Authority got no bids in its $300 million bond auction today. Do not ignore this as idle hucklebuck, if there even is such a thing. If the NYC Port Authority can’t raise money, no one can. And I mean no one.

Here’s the facts:

“The Fly” was long equities, due to “The Turkey Gods,” not for some sort of bottoming out rally. Fuck that. We are going into year two of the recession and, thus far, there have been zero signs of a respite. As a matter of fact, things have gotten far worse—more than I could have ever imagined.

So, the choice is yours. You can get long, like a fucktarded homo asshat, into a gut wrenching -6% 4th qt. GDP— or fade this rally and come out the other end like a fucking victorious gladiator.

Remember, the beginning of every new year sets the tone for the calender year. If you recall, we got plastered in the first two weeks of January of 2008; and I fucking nailed it.. There is no fucking chance we rally up, into the beginning of 2009. No-fucking-chance.

Hence the phrase will reemerge: “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing badly.”

UPDATE: Solomon’s coin trick!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdXy75VrQho 450 300]

I was doing just fine, until Wooshedder jinxed me with this statement:

“Beware the late day rally.”

Thank you very much Mr. Woodshedder.

Well, my day was hectic as cow shit in a pigsty. At this point, it’s rather pointless to discuss what I did, since it’s all hindsight. However, I will say, I ended the day with losses and was forced to rehedge my shorts, into the close, for the love of little babies and currency.

It’s a little frustrating to be off on timing; but it happens every once in awhile. The important thing is to stay focused and not try to hit a homerun, into losing positions. Instead, sometimes it’s better to eat losses, cut a clean slate and start anew, if only for peace of mind.

It’s clear the market is dying to go up. Bad news is not hitting stocks and good news is nowhere to be found. God forbid we get good news, this market will go parabolic, if only for a short term rally.

I can tell you, with the utmost certainty, the market is not healthy. I cannot say if we bottomed, but I will guaranfuckingtee you, the market will not go straight up.

Bank stocks are cheap, based upon where they were a few months ago. However, I think it’s fair to say their business models are severely impaired. Therefore, it makes little sense to go long banks, for any long term duration of time.

At the end of the day, I find myself with a hodge podge of stocks/etf’s, that will likely result in zero gains tomorrow, regardless of what the market does.

I own FAZ, FXP, EEV, REW, TNA. BGU, FAS and DUG.

Within stocks, I still own some GME, UNH, M, PFE, GU and a bunch of other stocks, not worth mentioning.

Bottom line: stocks are for asshats and I should practice my sandwich eating skills, during the afternoons, instead of trying to time tops.

So much for my early afternoon triumph.

Men running around in green leotards, like Bill Miller, are calling for a bottom. On top of that, it is well known the recession is played out. We need a nice rally, in order to placate the masses, who loathe opening their 401k statements.

In what seems like a complete reversal of the trend from 1 hour ago, banks look robust, led by gains in C and BAC. Catching bottoms or tops is never seemless and always done with error.

Considering this melt up, I am refraining from adding to any more shorts.

Fuckers.

You fuckers can’t keep a ‘calculator brain’ down for more than 2 days. As you know, “The Fly” had enough of this bullshit rally and went short, much to your chagrin, before the market reversed lower.

At the present, I am bathing in FAZ, FXP, EEV, DUG, amongst others, with a distinct feeling that they will make me buckets, mind you, of sweet U.S. coin.

I flushed out all of my KBR, most of my M, GU, TNA and ROM. I rejuggled, if I may be so bold as to say so.

Also, I bought more FXP, thinking there is no fucking way Chinese stocks continue to go up— God forbid. And, I started a small short position in GVA.

In short, I am net short and feel overzealous in my rejuvenated efforts to deball my neighbors 401k plans.

NOTE: I am still long a variety of names. However, as of now, I am net short.

I am selling out of my KBR position, in order to raise a lot of cash.

Also, I am selling half of my queer M and GU positions, at a loss.

I am still holding TNA, GME, UNH, PFE, amongst many other little positions. However, for the most part, I will trim down my longs, then methodically average down in FAZ and FXP. And, I will start buying some EEV and DUG.

The rally has a life of its own. It can run higher another 500-750 points—no problem. In order to NOT get stuffed into a trunk, then shot 9 times, I will balance out my shorts with some longs, specifically TNA, until I have the conviction to be nakedly short.

Right now, I’m all bashful and shit, covered in jungle leaves and Indian style war paint.

Well it looks like everything is back to normal again. People are buying stocks. Larry Kudlow is talking about mustard seeds and CNBC as a whole is all giddy and shit.

And, once again, all of my ‘smart friends’ are bullish, exclaiming “the Santa Claus rally has begun!”

Look, I’ll say it once more, lower oil prices is not good for the economy. The Government needs tax revenue, not a population with a higher savings rate. We’re in crisis mode here. Also, I don’t hear anyone talking about the negative headwinds to the oil/gas industry. Last I checked, those fuckers were the only ones making money, able to pay bountiful Federal taxes. Unless oil rebounds quickly, expect to see some pretty ugly numbers out of the sector.

Nonetheless, the underlying stocks do not reflect the deteriorating fundies, similar to homebuilder stocks, circa 2005.

Also, because of the anticipated 300+ billion infrastructure bill, infrastructure names, with shitty businesses, are sprinting higher. Look at GVA and VMC for proof.

Both of those companies are ripping their customers off, raising prices in a spiraling environment. I can’t wait to read about the type of egregious mark ups they assail the tax payer with. It will be grande.

Long story short: fuck this rally. I’m about sick and tired of it. It’s time for a little Great Depression, the sequel, to kick in again. With my money, I will begin unwinding my longs and start shorting stocks, in a very maniacal sort of way.

You are!

Nah, just kidding.

No, but seriously, you’re fucked.

I bet you thought there was no ramifications to falling oil prices.

Guess again.

HARTFORD, Conn. – A steep drop in gas prices has created an estimated $100 million revenue shortfall in Connecticut’s state budget for this fiscal year, which already has a projected deficit.

State officials thought the state’s petroleum wholesale tax was going to raise more this year than the $340.7 million it brought in the year before. But at least a third of the expected revenue is gone because of the falling gas prices.

The average price of a gallon of regular gas in Connecticut has dropped from an all-time high of $4.39 on July 7 to $1.98 on Monday, according to the automobile club AAA.

State lawmakers met last week and reduced the deficit for this fiscal year, which ends next June 30, by $300 million. But officials say the current $18 billion budget still has a deficit of at least $250 million, and the revenue shortfall for the next two years is estimated at $6 billion.

Connecticut is just the tip of the iceberg, with regards to state budget shortfalls. All states baked in much higher oil prices, when doling out money. Sure, our local politicians say they want lower oil prices; but it’s just another form of taxation. The cool part is, unlike the tobacco bond fiasco, they get to blame high oil on terrorists and men with sheets on their heads.

The stark reality: our country is mismanaged from the top down. Shockingly enough, America has the world’s largest economy, yet the most inept stewards watching over the Treasury.

Speaking of which, the “TARP funds” have been stolen and Congress has no idea where the 100’s of billions went.

Sweet.

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