The Internet Never Lies

That’s it, I am done with investing for 2008 (blatant lie). I simply can’t stand it anymore.

This tape is 100% untradeable (more lies, I am up today). Here I am, trying to figure out this market, then BAM, some guy walks into my office and throws a fucking watermelon at me (another lie). I stood, with a hammer in hand, covered in black seeds, and chased him down the hallway. But he got away (all a mirage).

It looked like some sort of elaborate (delusion) scheme to get “The Fly” off his game. Let me inform you tricksters, “The Fly” can never be stopped, handled or even slowed down (I slept in the day after Thanksgiving).

As for this market:

I should just buy a couple million shares of MVIS (fat chance), going into CES. You know that fucker, Tokman, is going to get all “jiggy with it,” unveiling new devices and shit.

Also, let me tell you, oil is all the rage, here in Dubai (another lie). As you know, Plutonium Petey has an office on the 110th floor, in the “Dubai Space Needle” (ridiculous), where he trades like space alien magician. He is treated like a King in Dubai, mainly because he punches off everyone’s mustachios (never happened).

Okay, it’s time to go eat a sandwich of some sorts (true). My positions are all over the place, but my wins in gold, via ABX, are especially pleasing—since many of you liars were against it. Whatever is occurring in the minds of people who buy t-bills is disturbing, let me tell you. My small TBT position is being ransacked and there is no sheriff in town to help save it.

Finally, at these levels, it appears the market will asshole dip bounce. I might buy more FAS and UYM, in order to get the monkeys off my back.

My losses at 2:20pm, following today’s Fed decision, were staggering. Well, not as bad as they could have been, since I raised a lot of cash a few days ago, but still bad.

I had my heels dug in, heavily short oil, with a minor bank short, partly hedged with longs. Nonetheless, if I did not take action today, it could have been a -10%+ day, or one of the worst trading sessions this year— for Senor Tropicana.

This post is not to rub in how smart I am or how evidently dumb you might be. Instead, it is a message, from the darkest corners of the internet, penned by a strange man, who refers to himself in the 3rd person and wastes inordinate amounts of time on the internet, during very weird hours of the day.

Here’s the point:

No matter how embedded you might be in your theory, as I was prior to the Fed surprise, be prepared to do the exact opposite, at all times. I know that seems nonsensical to many of you wannabe Warren Buffetts or Jimmy “bow tie motherfucker” Rogers. See, here on planet earth, where money dictates quality of life, it’s important to preserve what you have.

Assholes like Jimmy “fuckfaced bowtie” Rogers can afford to ride out 80% slides in his asinine commodity plays. However, for people worth less than 500 million, you might want to watch your positions more carefully.

Now, come tomorrow, I may switch sides again, which is okay. My gains in FAS, ABX, TNA, C, URE, amongst others, are so great, I am almost ensured to profit from today’s momentum chase—barring a “fuck you, you’re dead” collapse tomorrow.

For the record, I am not in the Cramer camp, who is totally ignorant to the market whims and current economic crisis. I believe today’s news was in fact horrific. I do not believe a Fed Funds rate of zero percent will help out the unemployment rate.

And, furthermore, once the economy does rebound, prepare for the mother of all inflation cycles, headlined by the crash of the U.S. dollar.

To play this (mother of all inflation cycles), I like gold, agriculture chemicals and select financials.

Within Gold, I like:

ABX, RGLD, GG, AUY and KGC.

Within Agriculture Chemicals, I like:

MOS, CF, SYT and POT.

And, within Financials, I like:

C, BAC, ITU, NLY, AFL and CMO.

Other stocks on the radar include: GWW, AMKR, INTC, ISIL and PCP.

Odds are, I will resist buying any of them, since the market is a fucking meat grinder and will likely collapse under the weight of idiocy. Just to fuck with people, as sure as I am sitting here, the dollar will firm and oil will shit itself. Who knows?

However, in the event I opt to execute some long trades, the above list is where I will go.

NO MORE 2x, 3x ETF’s.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zdy3T3MY_Rw&feature=channel_page 450 300]

I could not just sit back and watch myself get obliterated. It’s not in my blood.

I sold most of my ERY, FXP and all of my SMN, for losses.

With cash on hand and proceeds from inverse sales, I bought the following: URE, C, BAC, CBL, ABX, FAS, TNA, GE and UYM.

I kept my SRS, FAZ positions intact. My goal: stop the bleeding and make some quick money into the meat grinder.

My guess, we print a close at or near the highs of the day. Then, we gap up tomorrow. I want to fade tomorrow’s gap, via sales of my long positions. However, at the moment, my appetite to short this lunatic market is nil.

Zero percent. I cannot believe we are at zero percent. The market is shooting first, asking questions later.

My knee-jerk reaction was “wow, that’s fucking nuts.”

After thinking about it, I am worried. Not worried from a short position point of view, mind you. I am worried for the stability of the nation, for my kids.

How will our currency hold, with zero percent Fed funds rates, zero percent t-bills and 11 trillion in debt?

Without a doubt, gold should appreciate here. However, that does not mean it will, at least not right away.

So, lety me get this straight:

President Obama is going to print another trillion dollars for a stimulus program, amidst a zero rate policy? How?

People point to Japan and say “we are going to be like them.” However, the big difference is that they have a savings rate and account surplus, while we are drowning in debt.

Maybe we just reflate like a motherfucker out of here and drive up the prices of everything. Or, this experiment fails and ends with the default of the U.S. Treasury.

UPDATE: Feeling the bullish tone, I bought C, ABX, TNA, UYM and FAS.

UPDATE: I sold out of most of my ERY and FXP, taking losses in the process. My buy list is broad and ranging from banks to gold.

At this point, it’s useless to talk about the mirage called “Chinese growth” or how fucked the U.S. is, with its new/cool moral hazard laden zero interest rate policy.

For most of you, pikers at home trading the web, the next 2 hours is all that matters.

So, with that in mind, I suggest avoiding being too short or too long. The tone is already bullish. So, I would not be surprised to see the market sprint into the close. On the other hand, if the market “sold the news,” that would not surprise me either.

With my money, I will refrain from overreacting to today’s market trickery. If anything, I might execute some trades, after 3:00.

As cool as the market is today, with GS and MS leading the way, big money is still piling into treasuries, in a very Madoff sort of way.

On the long side, I like FAS, ABX and CBL for a trade.

An elderly women, named Bertha, sitting in a wheeled chair, slaps thick slices of liverwurst and olive loaf onto thin slices of rye bread. As the conveyor belt proceeds, aged Orwellian machines crank out ample amounts of mayonnaise onto the lunch meat and bread combo.

Then, the sandwich is wrapped in recycled cellophane, and tossed onto the dirty factory floor, where it will wait to be packaged and delivered.

Twenty hours passes and Bertha’s mayonnaise delight is still on the factory floor, being kicked around by janitors and mayonnaise machine engineers. Then, all of a sudden, “Gus the delivery guy” spots the lonely lunch meat, picks it up, then places it with today’s fresh batch.

Gus travels far and wide to deliver these delicious concoctions, to a small 7/11, just north of The City of Retards.

Gus arrives at his destination and places the sandwiches in decrepit sandwich bins, when a small man walks in and grabs one from Gus’s hand.

The small man hops along to the counter and pays for his sandwich, which cost him $3.39.

Just prior to taking a large bite out of this liverwurst/olive loaf/mayonnaise holy trinity, he rips off a label that says “Made by Bertha.”

I bought 10,000 ABX @ $33.56.

Disclaimer: If you buy ABX because of this post, Santa Claus will carpet bomb your chimney this Christmas. And, you may lose money.

If you are trading on a Fed day, be careful. Historically, Fed days offer misdirection and heartache for investors. Because of this, typically, I opt to do nothing, with exception to day trading.

Meaning: I have no interest in adding to short or long positions, prior to the Fed decision. Even after the Fed decides, the market can drive one crazy, knee-jerking back and forth.

Nonetheless, following bad news (GS, home starts), the market is very optimistic this morning. It makes no sense to bitch and complain about “what the market should do.” Instead, look at what the market is doing, and trade accordingly.

For now, my short term swing trades/day trades will be on the long side.

Specifically, I am looking at commodity names, especially in Ag, and select tech. When I decide on the exact names, I will post them.

With regards to my shorts:

They will suffer today. However, I am not in them for one or two days moves. So, in the meantime, I will utilize some of my cash to scalp a few trades.

NOTE: The news is horrific and the market SHOULD be down. So, on any slip up, I will be sure to stop out of any longs that I decide to get into.

Think big picture stuff for awhile.

GS just embarrassed themselves with a loss of $4.97. Sidney Weinberg is rolling over in his mausoleum.

Chinese vehicle production is down 15.9%.

Chinese iron production is down 16.2%

Chinese steel production is down 12.4%

In order to finance “stuff,” China is considering a tax of sorts on their coal industry. Analysts believe, if done, it might reduce the value of Chinese coal stocks by 40%.

Latest CPI figures point to deflation.

U.S. housing starts at a new low: 625,000, down 18.9%.

U.S. interest rates are approaching 0%, a la Japan. The only difference: Japan runs account surpluses. We are big ass borrowers.

The value of U.S. homes declined by 2 trillion dollars in 2008.

And the silver lining:

BBY beat the street this morning.

Maybe things will not get worse?

Look, stocks are always the best value, when things look the crappiest. That’s what the asshole dip buyers are betting on. They are “betting,” not investing, that the U.S. economy will somehow, miraculously, rebound and send stocks through the roof. In my opinion, barring any short term moves, this is pie in the sky gobble-grabble (that phrase means nothing. I just made it up).

In other words, all indicators are pointing to a weaker economy in 2009. While it’s true, if you wait for the economy to turn up, you will miss the lion share of the stock market gains, since it is a forward looking Indian Casino. It’s also true that in order to presume the economy will turn, one needs a modicum of good news, something/anything that can be a “mustard seed,” to borrow a phrase from the Great Larry Kudlow.

In my opinion, we’re just not there yet.

However, that does not mean men in green leotards will sideline themselves today. For the love of green grass and purple goats, THE FED IS GONNA CUT RATES TODAY. YAAAAA-HOOOOOOOO.