iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,482 Blog Posts

Don’t Be Mad at Stocks

If you’re hating the direction the nation is heading and commingle those thoughts with shorting the stock market — you are too far head of the game. While it’s true, the macro events happening inside the nation will eventually wreak havoc writ large in the market, please remember there are nations like Brazil out there with 65,000 murders per annum whose stock market, on occasion, is the envy of the world.

There is social cohesion and then there is commerce. One uncomfortable fact is the correlation between population growth, wages, and GDP. The more people we bring in, the lower the wages go and the more consumption of goods occurs. In a sense, the more migrants we accept into America the faster we’ll grow and all of the low skill low wage jobs will be filled by people of the desperate type.

None of this takes into account quality of life or social cohesion and crime. Simply put, America and most of the west are large swaths of land comprised of economic zones, to be managed in an authoritarian method to compel the socialistic policies for ultimate control of systems.

My ultimate point is, do not look at the stock market to affirm your grim outlook for Pax Americana. These are long tail trends that may take decades to manifest itself. Meanwhile, American people possess an extraordinary amount of wealth and ingenuity. It still is the cradle of innovation on planet earth and it’s a damned shame they’re punishing the people of this nation with policies that make them less safe and generally insecure.

High beta stocks ar +3.5% for the session, a ribald return that speaks to a high degree of risk underway.

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Investing Tip for Beginners and Morons

Listen to me. If you tried to get as good as me, it would take you an entire lifetime, if not two or three, in order to be on par with my skillset. HOWEVER, you can be a very competent investor using one simple trick.

Understand that all knowledge is already priced into markets. If looking over the investment landscape and asked to choose amidst thousands of stocks in a sea of gray, it can be intimidating for people who are new or stupid.

BUY STOCKS NEAR 52 WEEK HIGHS AND EVEN BETTER ALL TIME HIGHS.

There is a reason why expensive clothing is expensive, expensive cars are expensive, and expensive wines are expensive. Whilst the branding aspect plays a role, more often than not expensive things are produced with a higher level of quality by people who are experts in their field. You will of course attempt to push back against this and suggest Old Navy is the same as Gucci — but it isn’t so SHUT THE FUCK UP.

When a stock is at a high, there is no overhead resistance that can stop it. The reason why there are levels of resistance and support is due to price memory, which is a fancy way of saying folks like to sell shit when their cost basis is achieved.

If you only bought stocks near their highs, not small capped shit but large, you could probably outperform the vast majority of professional money managers.

I had a solid session, closed +33bps with an 85% long book — tilting towards long oils here.

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Gonna Bet on a Rotation Here

This is the exact opposite of what I usually advise people to do: betting on a trend that is not yet dominant. But there is precedent for what I am doing. I am thinking with today’s strength in basic materials and industrials — we might begin to see some continuation there.

If we do start to see oils, steel, tankers, and construction plays jimmy higher, we might be entreated to a massive market rally, an 80% up day.

This tape can be described as dull, as nothing of extreme importance is underway. Never short a dull tape. If you are short here, you must pray to the Gods rates spike. But the fact that rates have already spiked and markets haven’t gone down is a WARNING for you.

If you are short here, I would immediately hedge those shorts with some longs.

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Stepped Aside Except for my $RUM

It’s a mixed bag out there, with a bias to going up. There are many stocks down today, however. As a point in act, only 45% of stocks are up today.

Thanks to some luck long $XPO, I have gains of +37bps — locked in — 94% cash and my sole position is $RUM.

Why am I obsessing over $RUM?

The elections LOOM and the right wing dissidents are talking extreme shit, exclusively on Rumble. Unlike Youtube, who caters to the GLOBOHOMO and the western satanic NWO, Rumble let’s people say whatever they want. What a novel experiment.

Free speech isn’t something bestowed upon us by governments — but a GOD GIVEN RIGHT. The fact these GLOBOHOMO nations are now jailing people for expressing their opinions shows you how much of a farce democracy is and how the time has come to radically alter the way our nation is governed.

I have some errands to run, so I will not be trading much. I do not like the tape and do not hate it — so I moved to cash, except for Rumble of course which I already stated above.

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Fuck You, Still Going

I don’t even feel like boasting about my gains anymore, as I have elevated to the next level of my evolution. Soon it won’t be meaningful to even berate my readers as I already feel close to nothing. The market went up and I made money — because I am a weathervane and move swiftly, at all times, with the prevailing winds.

I do not care if you’re impressed or idle in disbelief. It means nothing to me. I do not write for your adoration or your business, but instead inscribe a historical document of a man who once traded in the early 2000s and never lost. Through thick and thin, my story will be studied for generations to come.

I have core beliefs in the tape: $UBER, $RUM, $SPOT, $CDNS, $ILMN just to name a few.

So you know, Mrs. Fly is thoroughly unimpressed too, a point which I admire but I’m also unimpressed. Anyone can trade well and turn a little bit of money into a lot. You just need to have a very high IQ, good instincts, and possess the discipline to know your ego is useless when attempting to measure up against others just as smart and cunning as you.

Oh you think you can beat me? Let’s see you try it.

+7.1%, YTD, closed 85% long, beta of 1.69.

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Practicing More Reserve in 2024

I am naturally a very anxious person. At home I am usually rifling through news stories, learning to code, researching stocks, reading a book, listening to an Audible, and conversing with people online and writing, all at the same time. I am what some might call a polymath, a person with a keen interest in many different things. When I was young and single, my eyes would wander for variety. I exhibit similar behavior when trading — always on the hunt for newer/better stocks.

Many years ago I was wantonly criticized for these methods, described as easily changeable and amenable to prevailing winds. But since 2020 I’ve grown to appreciate my changeability, providing me with grandiose returns in a market rife with turmoil and tumult.

But following years of rapid fire trading, I am attempting to do a little less in 2024 — perhaps reducing the volume of my trades from 75-100 per day to 40-65. Whilst that might seem like a lot — it really isn’t. At 6% positions and fully invested, selling and going to cash is 16 trades before 10am. Trying some movers throughout the day might account for 10 and then another 10-16 by the close. When the market is really active, I should not limit my trading volume — but instead maximize it — even via leverage. But this tape isn’t conducive with high risk, as the YTD trends suggest more of the same from 2023 — concentrated returned in mega caps with intermittent fake breakouts in small caps and subsequent collapses followed by mean reversion melt ups.

In other words, if you’re allocated in great big companies — you can probably relax and expect decent returns. But if you’re trading and trying to beat the market, you must remain vigilant and watch for pivots in the risk profile.

Today is a mirror image of yesterday, with high beta stocks +2.6% and the larger lower beta stocks much weaker. If you’re betting on the rally to continue in the $IWM — you’ll need a little luck on your side because almost all small cap rallies have flopped since late December.

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Rates Pull In; Markets Pull Up

What did I say yesterday?

“My assumption is for rates to calm the fuck down, which may provide succor for battle tested longs. We shall see.”

Today we have the US 10yr -5bps and the Russell ripping mammaries, +85bps. Today’s tape is much better than what the indices suggest. My High Beta index is +2.6%, a true barometer of risk. Whilst you sit there all slovenly and stupid trying to fish out the meaning of life — “The Fly” has transcended such small thinking and has hacked the stock market to be his personal ATM.

Gone are the days of when I didn’t know what would happen next. I know exactly what will happen and am in complete control of my sense and my purpose.

I closed out all of my positions in my trading this morning, +90bps — because I had to partake in a sojourn to the fucking dealership to see about my car battery leaking acid. It’s never a good thing to see and if I wanted to jump start someone with a leaking battery, I might find myself inside the hospital with 3rd degree burns and a shot nervous system.

Today’s market is focused on small caps and risk. I am not sure this is a recipe for success; but am open to the idea. I am going to walk my fucking dogs now and then make some eggs and coffee and then get back to trading, in that order exactly. I will also continue to pop into Stocklabs and talk shit to my paying customers, in order to remind them how lucky they are to have me guide them through the fires and lead them to victory.

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Closed All In Long, In Spite of the Horrors

The American Congress and Senate wants to destroy the nation via dysgenic policies. Crime is running rampant because marxist scum operate at every level of America’s government. When I think about all of the things that I hate about this country, I am so overwhelmed I can hardly express them into words, which is why I much prefer to simply talk about stocks.

This way, things are much simpler. I am enrobed in a bubble of my own making, where illegal migrants and neocon scum do not intercede in my daily routine. In a sense, trading is and has always been the original meta verse — where people congregate in a fantasy world to pretend and shape a world of their own choosing. If I want to ignore the GLOBOHOMO satanic policies of my government, I can simply buy $RUM and $DWAC and perhaps some stocks representative of traditional ideals.

The stock market, if you’re unaware, is the single greatest game ever invented. Every day there is a new puzzle to solve, some unique others are merely repeats. Your memory is tested often, attempting to recall how you played hurricane or wars in the past. We all know how to play riots and pandemics now — something the last 4 years have provided us with.

Markets are very weak today, but there was a rally and I managed to close next to flat, but fully long into tomorrow. My assumption is for rates to calm the fuck down, which may provide succor for battle tested longs. We shall see.

All in all, the pin action continues to favor large companies over small and the single biggest risk to everything is the interest rates, so keep a very close eye on that.

See you catamites tomorrow.

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Control Your Beta

As a manager of your own money, it’s supremely important to assess the amount of risk you’re assuming with your holdings. For some of the more seasoned investors, we know just by glancing at the ticker symbols if XYZ is volatile or not. But for most, the unwashed masses, having a portfolio filled with all of the trending stocks is risk free, up until the inflection point of when those securities fall out of favor and collapse.

A little pro tip for you morons out there.

Affix a “beta” metric to your portfolios to see how insane you are and what level of drawdowns you’ll be subjected to during the next leg lower.

Inside Stocklabs, I create lists and indices to assess risk and keep on top of the tape, without having to dig too deep. These points of reference provide me with information that I use intuitively to base near term investment decisions off from. For example, this morning I had mentioned the High Beta Index was off by 3.6%. That single data point kept me long and provided me with the impetus to buy more. Because of it, I am 100% long and with this little rally going I’ve managed to reverse an earlier loss of 70bps to +25bps.

Look at the chasm between the high and low beta today. While it might be temping to dip buy into the high beta for the glory, the fact of the matter is — money is flowing into much larger and secure areas of the market. Even so, my portfolio now has a beta of 1.26. Into the close on Friday it was around 1.9x, something I was very eager to correct at the open of trade today.

The number one rule in trading is “never blow up” or take the proceeds of a divorce settlement and risk prison time with a YOLO option trade, short dated. Alas, I cannot force you mules to drink the water, in spite of the obvious fact that I have provided you all a reservoir of healthy clean water to consume.

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Why is Wall Street Pricing in a Renewed Spike in Inflation?

Once again, the US 10yr is soaring, +13bps to 4.17%, sending the small cap Russell swooning lower by 1.8%. The chasm between the large caps and small is wide and pervasive — 130bps for the session. Digging deeper into the tape you’ll find high beta stocks or stocks that were previously fashionable crashing lower by 3.6%.

It is because of this deep decline in high beta that I am directionally bullish now. I had traded out of $TZA for a profit earlier — but have since opted a long only portfolio, at least for now. I might switch it up the closer we get to the close.

I did, however, move rapidly out of risk this morning in favor of slower, larger capped names. My losses, at the present, stand at around -50bps for the session and fully admit to be in conflict with the market.

On one hand the earnings and general sense of the economy is status quo. This condition was fine all of last year for higher stocks. But on the other hand, the rapidly rising rate environment has me a little concerned about a renewed spike in the CPI. Is that what is being priced in now? I cannot think of any other reason short of just massive selling of US bonds by foreign shareholders.

For trades, both $DWAC and $RUM are attractive to me, especially with Trump +5 in national polls over Biden. I had $DWAC earlier and sold it — but still own Rumble.

Bottom line: Perhaps the market is diving back into bear market mode — but I am not going to risk going short here with high beta stocks already off by 3.6% for the session. However, into the waning hours of trade — I might hedge and attempt to freeze my portfolio until better clarity is achieved.

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