RUSSIA THREATENS BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA WITH MILITARY ACTION IF THEY MOVE TO JOIN NATO

It’s reasonable to say NATO is no longer a deterrent in Europe, but instead a cause for instability. It’s not NATO that is forcing Putin to threaten military action of course — but the perception of NATO in Russia that is now a redline. That redline is based off the past 25 years of NATO led conflict and has pushed its borders right up to Russia’s at a time when American rhetoric blames Russia for everything from our election outcomes to a rainy day in Maine.

RUSSIA WARNS BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SAYS WILL ALSO FACE THE SAME FATE AS UKRAINE, IF DECIDES TO BE A PART OF NATO

It would make sense to cease permitting Eastern European nations from entering NATO, and instead opt for diplomacy with their neighbors in a manner that isn’t malevolent. Thus far, we have heard nothing but belligerent statements out of all Eastern European nations towards Russia and I can understand why they dislike them. But like talking shit to a bully in a schoolyard, if you choose to open your mouth and talk shit — you must be in a position to back it up.

Estonia is the most outspoken Baltic nation and they have no airforce.

This is Russia’s sphere of influence and there isn’t a balance of power. The idea of NATO made sense when they had their Warsaw Pact; but now it’s unnecessary and the primary cause for all of the suffering taking place in Ukraine today.

Stocks don’t give a fuck, however, at least for the session. I am +265bps, heavily long commodities with 10% short.

Presently cooking a corned beef and getting ready for a night of wanton debauchery and beer/whiskey consumption.

We just don’t give a fuck.

WTI is having a heart attack to the upside. Corn is popping off in Joe Biden’s face, and yet tech is rallying too. Nothing can stop the cocaine from flowing into our noses and yet WORLD WAR AND THREE DAYS OF DARKNESS LOOMS over us like a ghostly apparition of death itself.

Going with this theme, I went all in again, a sundry of commodities sprinkled in with some tech. To make myself feeeeeeel better, I shorted banks via FAZ because really — WHOS GONNA STOP ME?

My gains are plus 2% and counting, quant more than 3%. I’m like a printing press of money and nothing seems to be able to derail me. You might be thinking “hey asshole! You just jinxed yourself, TOP”. But you’d be wrong Sir. The stock Gods favor me and bless me with stock market success all the time.

While it’s true, there have been periods of time when “THE FLY” was RACKED with losses, sad and downtrodden around these halls; it’s also true these periods were designed to teach me valuable lessons in order to improve my market prowess. I’ve only gotten better over the years. The gains might not be as ribald as they once were on a day to day basis, but I’ve managed to lessen the periods of loss on almost an exponential basis. In other words, not a single one of you bastards can compete with me.

It seems reality is settling back into the narrative of the market this morning regarding what the commodity markets will look like sans Russia. The rhetoric is increasing on both sides at an exponential pace and it won’t be long now until all Russian exports are withdrawn from the market.

Here are today’s noteworthy headlines:

KREMLIN SAYS: THE UNITED STATES HAS LONG BOMBED CIVILIANS AND USED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN JAPAN AT THE END OF WW2 – SO THE U.S. PRESIDENT HAS NO RIGHT TO LECTURE RUSSIA

Kremlin spokesman says reports that Russia and Ukraine have made progress on a possible peace deal are, on the whole, ‘incorrect’.

CHINA’S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN ZHAO: NATO HAS ESCALATED THE UKRAINE SITUATION WITH SUPPLY OF WEAPONS.

CHINA WILL CONTINUE NORMAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND UKRAINE.

RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV SAYS: RUSSIA HAS THE CAPACITY TO PUT ALL ITS ENEMIES IN THEIR PLACE *

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: RUSSIA-CHINA PARTNERSHIP AND COOPERATION RELATIONS ARE NOT SUBJECT TO SHORT-TERM INTERNATIONAL CONDITIONS

Stocks look a little soft post monster melt up but more importantly — commodities are clown-shoeing the fuck higher with oil and aluminum up more than 5%. It would seem markets are beginning to sober up and price in the specter of global world war again.

Russia is isolated and alone, so good thing our policy makers are pushing China into their corner to establish a Pacific theatre.

As we celebrate American excellence (stock gains), over in Russia — things are getting dreadfully serious.

Here’s Putin calling Russian oligarchs living abroad “traitors” and “scum”. He also snuck in a sexual freedom reference for good measure.

PUTIN CALLS RUSSIAN HIGHER CASTE LIVING ABROAD “SCUM” pic.twitter.com/J0fCj3abbu

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 16, 2022

And here is the part he accused the United States of developing new COVID strains. It’s worth noting, this has been a conspiracy theory since COVID broke out in 2020 and it was doubled down at the onset of the Ukrainian war, only to be boosted by Victoria Nuland’s testimony confirming biolabs in Ukraine.

PUTIN SAYS US FUNDED BIOLABS IN UKRAINE WERE EXPERIMENTING WITH STRAINS OF CORONAVIRUS pic.twitter.com/rUTb8wuAs6

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 16, 2022

Biden responds by calling Putin a war criminal. It’s worth noting, Putin applied sanctions to Hunter Biden yesterday.

BIDEN CALLS PUTIN A WAR CRIMINALpic.twitter.com/EXB3ORZgJq

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 16, 2022

Kremlin response:

KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SAYS BIDEN’S COMMENTS ABOUT PUTIN BEING A WAR CRIMINAL ARE UNACCEPTABLE AND UNFORGIVABLE RHETORIC -TASS NEWS AGENCY

Stop pretending we are not at war with Russia.

DETAILS OF NEW US AID TO UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/htO2oaUZlb

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 16, 2022

What does Russian-European relations look like in 6 months and how does that bode for stocks?

I cannot tell you how many times I’ve seen this and I purposely left the previous headline intact as a way to document the fuckery of Fed days.

The Fed came out with hawkish statements and then during the testimony Powell more or less said inflation was transitory and everyone jerked off to the sounds of the NASDAQ screaming higher.

I had a mixed day.

That first account only executes buys of TQQQ based upon the Stocklabs oversold signals. It buys in 3 tranches, 33% per buy. I had been lucky enough to see 3 OS signals the past week or so and have a 100% allocation to TQQQ, now screaming higher by 11% for the session. There is a 5 day holding period for it.

The second is my trading and that did nothing because early on I left the turret and permitted some gains in Ag chems turn into heinous losses. I was up 90bps before 10am and after 12pm I was -50bps. When the Fed came out and markets collapsed, I had just gone long 2x (10% weight) LABU and saw my account sink to -2.2% at session lows. Although tempted to sell and chalk up the loss or even better short something to hedge, I refrained only because it was a Fed day and I knew chicanery ruled supreme.

The third account is my Quant and it is heavily long oils, which are out of favor now.

The biggest question for the market now is higher or lower and if higher will rotation out of commodities continue and spill into tech? The answer is inevitably NO.

Watch this.

PUTIN CALLS RUSSIAN HIGHER CASTE LIVING ABROAD “SCUM” pic.twitter.com/J0fCj3abbu

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 16, 2022

Perhaps it’s just a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed move, which we all expected. Nevertheless, stocks are CAREENING lower post Fed interest rate hike, just 25bps, and the selling is intensifying.

Here are the headlines:

FOMC Voted 8-1 For Fed Funds Rate Action; Bullard voted for 50bps rate hike

Fed hikes 2024 rate to 2.75% and cut its median loner-run dot to 2.375% now from 2.5%.

The Fed’s dot plot is penciling in rate hikes at every remaining meeting this year.

Fed now sees year-end inflation at 4.3%

Bizarro dots POWELL: INFLATION TO TAKE LONGER TO RETURN TO GOAL THAN THOUGHT
POWELL: EXPECT INFLATION TO RETURN TO 2% WHILE LABOR MKT STRONG

FED’S POWELL: THE FOMC MADE GOOD PROGRESS ON THE BALANCE-SHEET PLAN THIS MEETING.

FED’S POWELL: POLICY IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADAPT TO THE ENVIRONMENT.

href=”https://t.co/tyy7mxHJ4V”>pic.twitter.com/tyy7mxHJ4V

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 16, 2022

The answer is no.

But in the interim, we are seeing stocks like CF, IPI, BTU knife the fuck lower on this idea of peace. Interestingly, we are also seeing defense contractors get bogged the fuck out thanks to hot money morons shifting out of LMT, NOC and back into shit like AREB and SONN.

The commodity trade will be with us for a long time. But like anything else, it will take time to mature and grow into deserved valuations. At the onset of the war — traders shot first asked questions later, diving head first into commodity stocks without thinking. Now that we feel a sense of normalcy, only because our cities aren’t being bombed, the knee-jerk reaction is to go back to old habits. But this is wrong and I will show you why.

PUTIN SAYS: THE PROBLEMS OF THE WEST WILL ONLY INCREASE || SAYS THE WHOLE PLANET IS PAYING FOR THE AMBITIONS OF THE WEST || SAYS MYTH OF WESTERN WELLBEING IS CRUMBLING

RUSSIA’S PUTIN SAYS WEST HAS ENGAGED IN UNPRECEDENTED INFORMATION CAMPAIGN AGAINST RUSSIA

Putin says West’s sanctions ‘blitzkrieg’ against Russia has failed

PUTIN SAYS: THE WEST’S ATTEMPT TO HAVE GLOBAL DOMINANCE IS COMING TO AN END

PUTIN: UKRAINE, BACKED BY WESTERN FORCES, PLANNED AGGRESSION ON RUSSIA.

PUTIN: WON’T LET UKRAINE BECOME BASE FOR ATTACKS ON RUSSIA PUTIN SAYS: WEST IS PUSHING UKRAINE TO CONTINUE THE BLOODSHED BY SUPPLYING ARMS

PUTIN SAYS: THE WHOLE PLANET IS PAYING FOR THE AMBITIONS OF THE WEST

RUSSIA’S PUTIN SAYS WESTERN ACTIONS SHOWED GOLD AND FOREX RESERVES CAN BE JUST STOLEN

PUTIN SAYS: WE ARE FIGHTING FOR THE SOVEREIGNTY OF RUSSIA, FOR THE FUTURE OF OUR CHILDREN

Like it or not, your government is already at war with Russia. The commodity/war trade has only just begun.

Big news out of China last night, with government commitments to ensure price stability of their markets aka rig them higher. The Hang Seng soared 9% and tech stocks went limit up 20%. Over here the gains are more perverse, with monster rallies in stocks like DUO, PDD, BEKE and BILI to the tune of +20 to +60%.

I had bought YINN (3x china) yesterday when it was down 9% because Stocklabs had finally flagged oversold.

https://twitter.com/sofiahcbbg/status/1503969985726541825?s=21

Don’t worry, I sold YINN before the close yesterday, in order to limit my gains today and not make all of you feel jealous. Big rally continuation happening based off Russian peace deal, which isn’t going to happen.

At our core, we are most optimistic about the future, even the most glum and downtrodden amongst us. In the face of hardship and unrelenting resistance, the vast majority of people push forward and thru in search of a better future. It’s the reason why the American spirit of aspiration made us into the greatest empire to be destroyed by monsters today. They don’t hate us for our freedom or our success, but by right. Ergo, the country is being gutted, first by its soul and then the body.

This is just 1 trading day out of many and it was perfect, with barely any semblance of panic. I was mostly cash, but still managed +91bs, with 10% TZA hedge into the close.

In my Quant, I lost 90bps due to oil exposure and in my new algo account, which only buys based off Stocklabs oversold flags, it gained 7% for the day, fully long TQQQ. As a point in fact, and I mentioned this earlier in the room, today was a rare day where the oversold signal flashed even when the NASDAQ was +230. I bought my final tranche at around 1pm with gains of 3.5%. My gains doubled into the close.

I believe markets are fine up until the banks get hit in earnest and then it’s lights out. The interest rates are also an issue, too damned high, and of course the war. There is friction all around us, yet we’re managing to hang in there — eternal hope shining thru because the alternative isn’t fun at all.

SIRS —

You have a choice before you. Are you a believe in corn cobs or not? Last week everyone thought living on a farm with corn was preferable to large cities with vast meaningless resources and crime. Today the opposite is true, thanks to a collapse in all commodities — largess drops in Aluminum, Copper, Coal, Steal etc have soured the once bright mood and cast high echelon stocks into the pits of hell.

Above is the price performance of some raw material ETFs the past week.

Some stock ideas on this recent dip include, but not limited to, OXY, AA, MOS, IPI, FANG, APA, CENX, GFI, extending into the tankers and shippers too. But if you’re a believer that the war induced price spikes were one off events and what we’re seeing now is simply normalization of stock prices back to pre war levels, SIR — you are misguided.

1. War is only getting started.
2. Normalization of a stock like OXY places its shares into the $30s

My contention is simple: We are in the midst of a great commodity boom. This is merely a week in what might be a year + in higher prices, so don’t take it with much more than a grain of salt. I do think, however, prices could fall even further, so exposure should be limited. In one month from now, at least this is my guess, the share prices of the Commodity Super Cycle will be back to previous highs — predicated on supply shortages emanating from the war with Russia — which I believe will only get worse over time.