iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,506 Blog Posts

Sketch Crosscurrents

I was fortunate enough to be hedged into today, also long HUT, and closed out my positions flat. I then traded in and out of leveraged ETFs and more or less did nothing. I am now net short, mostly cash, having difficulty trying to figure out where stocks are going next.

We know SAAS is up today but oils are hammered.

We have rancid breadth in tera caps, with better breadth in the small but bigger losses! There are stocks like NET and AFRM doing well, ignoring the tape. There is mean reversion kicking in for Chinese names, which are doing ok in this tape.

Cryptos are soaring, but crypto miners are well off their highs.

Runners like GROM soar and then collapse, trapping a slew of momo traders in its burning house.

All the while this is happening, we know the market is sick but we are also well aware of GIANT PENIS SHAPED candles that can save the day.

As for me, I will not be trading in individual names, if I can avoid it. I am interested only in ETFs and trading small because I want to be able to get out fast.

Other than that, House Fly is in SEVERE SHAMBLES as his toilet bowl valve broke and the plumber he hired had a fit fixing it. He was besides himself with grief, sweating it out, removing the entire toilet top to smash the valve to pieces on my front lawn for all of my neighbors to see. He then replaced said valve and then detected a leak in the water hose — forced again to leave and go back to his house for supplies — because this is a man who goes on a job without any.

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Which Way Next — Up or Down?

First let’s start with the fact this is prime time for stocks, seasonally speaking. You do not short into Thanksgiving and Xmas. Rarely will you be rewarded.

Monthly returns for Nasdaq 

However, we can’t rest on seasonal trends at a time when oil is surging and there seems to be an empty rudderless fucked face running the country. Not that is means too much — but on the margin I’d say this country’s mood is dour and grim.

I’ll drop some chart and interpret them from my point of view.

First let me drop the Stocklabs mean reversion reading. The system only counts the first signal within a 10 day time frame, placing the signal from last week at about breakeven so far. The cycle lasts for 10 days and then after that if a new signal pops up — a new cycle begins.

Here’s a chart of the SMH, clearly with a broken trend-line. Not that I give a fuck about charts — but it’s obvious to me that the semis are being APE-RAPED here and the semis are the cock of this market. Without them, we’re not having fun. One bright note is these routs occur from time and time and rarely does a green candle pop up after a sizable drop and it not continue higher. The one difference here is we’re below the imaginary trend line.  The bullish case has the SMH gapping way higher, leading stocks up. The bear case is it’s over.

I am short bonds via TBT. The prevailing trend now is inflation and rapidly rising oil and natural gas — because nothing says “fuck you” to Europe like a $1,000 winter gas bill. Europe is going to freeze and the inflation narrative lends credence to the higher rates narrative, which is also seasonally convenient too.

Here is the seasonal data for PEP — going back 49 years. This is the second best month to own PEP with nearly a 70% win rate. I went through the data and risk averse names like KO and PEP do well in October.

Here’s a chart of XLE. Lots of stocks ripping faces off — but when you take a broader look we’re just now butting up against levels that have failed before. I’d like to see this level eviscerated before chasing in.

Gold is fucking retarded. If you want to stick it to the man — buy BTC. Nevertheless, something is going to happen soon with GLD. I’d venture a guess of sharply lower prices. Then again, I don’t really care.

While the media celebrates the NASDAQ, which is basically 10 giant tech companies — the real market has done nothing since February. This is a chart of the IWM — stuck indelibly in a fag-box.

Lastly, and I cannot stress this enough — stocks with market caps under $250m have been absolutely RAPED from their highs — off by 55%. And I do not use the word rape lightly. That is a bad word, Sir. If I expand this to include stocks up to $1b in cap — the losses lessen to -37%, but still a sexual assault. All of those fun Biden stocks are now inside Hunter’s crack pipe and we’re not having fun anymore. We’re lucky to walk away with 1-3% intra-day rippers, more likely to fall flat on our fucking heads. My point is this: the market is old man sick — just like Biden. We have been running at high valuations for a decade and now we have a bifurcated economy where only the vaccinated get to do fun shit. What sort of fuckery is this? NOT CONDUCIVE to strong consumer trends, if I might be so bold.

 

 

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COLLAPSE *

You thought you’d have fun today, but instead you didn’t. You saw the market +400 and felt entitled to more but instead got a stuff fist into the teeth.

LOOK AT THOSE LOSSES. STACK THEM HIGHER.

If you bought the open, you were chased down like a fucking dog for -3%. The close was collapsed and nothing was confident and now we await Asian trade where the orient will decide our fate.

I closed out my upside ETFs and went short via SQQQ in a 2x sized position to hedge against my stocks. I have roughly 40% cash, also short bonds via TBT, and have little to no confidence in the tape. I ended up only 35bps, but +200bps in both my Quant and Best ideas portfolio. Those accounts did much better because they were fully long into today, whereas I was in a lot of cash and old man stocks. I did not chase today and refused to believe the rally was back just because we bounced today. I remain optimistic of a rally, but did not like today’s action at all.

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SURVIVE

The grindhouse is in full regale today. It started with biotechs breaking down and then small caps. Presently inside Stocklabs, pennies are off by 0.65%, while tera caps +1.46%. There is a tale of two cities taking place, where the big capped stocks led by tech and banks lead higher, while energy and all of the other shit crash lower.

I told you to stay away from oils and now stocks like CEI are getting lit the fuck up. Too many meme stocks and too many faggots trading them.

I have been all over the road today, long small caps, semis, short energy, biotech — and now I am long some old man stocks, short bonds and biotech, whilst being long banks and FANG plays. I am not trying to make all of my losses back today. For God’s sake I am merely attempting to have an up day without much drama. But the market isn’t making it easy and now I have to figure this shit out.

FYI: Cryptos have been added to Stocklabs, starting with ETH and BTC — soon many more. Volume tools and predictive algos will be available for those interested in trying it out.

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RESPITE

Markets have eased up on destroying the investor class today, sending the Dow up nearly 400 and NASDAQ sea-worthy. I have been very careful about re-entering, but have done so via lunatic 3x upside ETF machine guns, reserving 58% cash for the eventuality of  my destruction.

I am not at ease and feel as if a shoe will drop at any moment. I swapped out my old man stocks in favor of time bombs and do not feeeeeeel good about it. I want to curl up in a ball and hide somewhere, come back when it’s safe and when people are doing pink coke again.

Alas, the energy stocks are again surging off the backs and dicks of Natty up nearly 7%. It is laughable to chase here. I can clearly see the guillotine in the foreground, setting up to chop off the heads of late-comers. I shall not, at least not here and now, enter the energy trade now into the head chopping to come.

In other news, a Facebook snitch is before Congress today asking the pedophiles in Government to regulate Facebook. Fuck off  — psyop.

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Get Your Lists And Cocks Ready

Dow futures have turned negative 100+ now and the orient is being lit the fuck up, as the NIKKEI swoons lower and we await to see how low the Hang Seng can go tonight. We’re all dreadfully pessimistic now, which is part and parcel of living in the most abhorrent timeline since the 1860s. Ergo, and this goes without saying, you should prepare to have your lists ready and your cocks — for these squalls do not last forever and the snap back will cut off the heads of so many people leaning sideways out the car — joyriding their shorts lower.

I do not know what the catalyst will be — but once the worm turns the momentum will quickly shift to the upside and then a panic buying frenzy will take hold.The game is never different and I have traded through these son of a bitch whore markets ever since I passed my series 7 exam back in 1997.

I am presently positioned like a coward in Campbell’s Soup and utilities — because I’ve been beaten up around the face and gums — punched one too many times and I’d rather try to keep my teeth if I could do so. However, when we capitulate, and this is important to time, I will have to allocate into the very WORST performing stocks known to man — the one’s you laugh at when glancing upon your lists.

The fact of the matter is: small caps are down an astounding 54% from their 52 week highs — because Jim Biden is a catamite son of a bitch with a crack head son. Also Cathy Wood’s ARKK is -37% and I have a whole god damned list of names down 75%+ — mostly from China, since they’re no longer interested in capitalism.

This is all happening fast and out from nowhere and I’ve avoided all of the carnage up until this past month. I must be careful not to rout myself any further, while at the same time attempt to buy the blood like a true vampire in true ribald fashion in order to ascend back to levels from which I deserve to rarify myself in.

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FUCK OFF

Facebook has been offline for more than 3 hours. It appears their entire site has been destroyed and as such — speculators believe the stock is now worth zero. Energy heavy faggots boasted their gains today amidst the carnage. If you were long the inflation trade, you escaped the pain.

The sell off in tech was palpable and like all previous sell offs before — this too feels bad. It feels like it wants to go to zero and I had to check myself all day from selling short by focusing in on the people I hate boasting of their shorts and how we were bound to collapse the open.

Look at how fucked Facebook is now.

Although long, I could not get myself to get long tech or heavily into the Nasdaq. I am long CPB, DUK, ETR and other old man stocks with levered exposure to the Dow and a risky gambit in biotech via LABU. I am still heavy cash and I can still drawdown 2% or so tomorrow is we collapse the open. We might in fact gap lower and recover. Or, we might gap up and keep running. Or we can gap up and then collapse.

This is not an easy tape to gamble. People chasing energy here might get 100% fucked tomorrow. The path of maximum pain is where we’re going and the easy trade seems to be selling short into the bell.

Fuck it I am going the opposite — but will take heed of risk tomorrow morning.

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100% FUCKED — WE ARE CRASHING NOW — ALL HOPE IS LOST

Nothing can see us now. My losses have been stacked on top of each other like crates and I am now attempting to climb said crates in an effort to achieve those heights. I have been bogged for months now — losing in this and in that. This Biden CUNT market is the absolute worst and I hate him with all of my guts and truly wish anyone but him was President. I can only blame him and him alone. It reminds me of when that cunt Obama was President and the market swam lower for YEARS before anyone noticed it was only GOOGL and other mega caps trending up to mask the misery of markets.

This is what you get — PEAS — and you eat them because OMG WE HAVE TO HELP THE POOR.

Fuck the poor and the migrants — fuck them all. I want high prices for my stocks and I want them now and I do not want to help anyone.

Speaking of help, I am HELPING MYSELF now to shares of stocks because why not? Cryptos are raging higher and the market is BOGGED DOWN into levels we have not scene, from a technical standpoint, since March of 2020. It feels wrong to buy and I want to short — because FUCK THIS COUNTRY — but could you imagine being short into a RIP ROARING reflex bounce after being wrong on the way down? I would rather kill myself.

I am 40% cash, long old man stocks, a little oil, cryptos and designs on other stuff into the close.

I buy the blood because fuck you.

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SHOULD HAVE SOLD THE OPEN; MARKETS CRASH THRU THE FLOORBOARDS

The same story repeats itself every day. Markets open somewhere at 9:30 and then quickly go lower. If it’s down, it goes lower. If it’s up, it goes lower. I looked at my positions, barely down, even up in the pre-market, in horror as they cascaded lower at the open. I finally surrendered, like a true southern gentleman, handed over my sword, and locked in losses of 2.5% for the session. I have since then purchased two oils, 1 uranium and some old man stocks in an effort to exacerbate my already dreadful start.

Those who bet on a crash have in fact been rewarded today. The rise in commodity prices is apparently places a severe strain onto the brains and wallets of people and as such we are manifesting lower.

Did I sell my SOXL position at the bottom?

Perhaps I did and perhaps I will regret selling it when I did — but I was wrong (again) and there isn’t much to say other than fuck off.

The issue with chasing already up commodity stocks here is the danger of them reversing and joining the rest of the party lower.

Presently there are several dozen oils pinned near highs, tempting traders to dive in. At 10:30am in the morning and my two commodity stocks already down 1%, I say to you Mr Commodity sector FUCK OFF.

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There is Currently No Basis For a Market Crash

This racks me with idle thoughts at night, the epheremal notions persists in the back of my mind that all of this excess is not a byproduct of wealth and industry but grift and malfeasance. The new $3.5 trillion BIDEN BUDGET is more evidence of this — the absurd coming true and normalized to condition a new generation of ignorants to accept corruption.

When looking at money printing I am reminded of Einstein’s law of relativity. Whether Einstein was right or not, the idea of being on a train moving fast and an adjacent train traveling just as fast equating to no real movement is important to remember when looking at money printing. The whole world is doing it, not just us. So how could there be a bubble when the rubber balloon is also getting bigger at the same time? It defies physics, granted, and it’s magical thinking to assume we can get away with it. But show me where the pressure is being applied?

Below is the LSTA index for leveraged loans — aka the shittiest loans on the planet. If the market was really worried about credit, you’d see these bonds hit first.

High yield is having a grande old time and no one is scared and nothing is on the horizon, aside from +30% YOY real estate gains and crippled supply chain that threatens to freeze all of Europe this winter. The idea that COVID is over because we’re seeing less COVID cases, but still +200% YOY, is also naive — ahead of winter. There are reasons to be terminally worried about stocks, such as the idea that we’re +40% since Biden got elected. One might muse at that and feel it’s wrong and shouldn’t be and care to revoke said gains, all the way to zero.

More magical thinking.

For now, I’ll leave the longer term forecasting to those who get paid to do it. We can have a dreadful market without calamity, just a drill down into dust due to confidence destruction. We are close to that now. We are one or two big down days away from manifesting a rout in stocks and no one will know why it happened. Confidence is everything and without it the house of cards can collapse on its own, without a reason and without warning. These are the hardest events to predict — because without a fundamental concern people are inclined to hold and add to stocks when they drop. Most people view them as long term instruments and are programmed for reward when holding long enough. Last year at the COVID lows people were down 60% in their portfolios and it came all the way back and much much more.

That is not supposed to happen but it did and we pretend it’s ok because “clown world.”

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