Thu May 26, 2022 9:47am ESTComments Off on Classic Reversal: BE CAREFUL SHORTING HERE
To be honest, I had a few drinks last night and am out of the loop this morning. I sold everything and am 100% cash in my trading, having booked small losses and surprisingly one of them was in SOXS. I was certain NVDA would stay down, but it looks like a classic red to green reversal. I’d be very uneasy staying short after a bellwether like that started to go up in the face of bad news.
I’ll get my house in order here and try to give a better assessment later on. My initial instinct is to first cash up and avoid shorting.
Just 1.5 years left on this site before I impose a self ban. The markets are behaving well without drama, so I doubled up on my current positions, added a SOXS hedge, and will call it a day. I might double up or down on SOXS depending on my mood.
Commodity markets, FOREX markets, stock markets can all fuck off for a day, as I have no desire whatsoever to trade on this fine day.
My current positions, a birthday present from me to you.
We have a 9 handle on natty now and we’re only getting started. These prices are BEFORE a Russian embargo. Once the EU is ordered by the US to stop buying Russian gas — then you’ll see the real spike and you will also see how it decimates your natural gas utility bill the coming winter, as America converts all of its gas into LNG to export to Europe for big fat profits.
The continent of Europe, more or less, is a useless sack of shit that cannot sustain itself on energy, food, or defense. They instead depend on others to do it for them.
I happen to be long several natty plays this morning, but will be selling all of my stocks at the open, since today is my birthday and all.
I’ve blogged enough today, plus I was busy combining both of my books into one hardcover — which should be ready for your libraries in about 5 days.
If you’re confused about the market and why you’re losing, do this.
If you had X amount of dollars to invest now, would you buy the stocks in your portfolio now? If the answer is no, sell them. If you own all high tech growth stocks, you’re only hope is for a miracle and this is a great way to lose money.
Invest in stocks TRENDING HIGHER not lower. Why knife catch SHOP when CHK is going higher daily?
Listen to me. The halcyon days of Chamath and other FUCKED FOR FACES on Twitter providing you with winning stock ideas is over. This is the era of the Orc and Middle Earth is a busting volcano of danger and doom festooned all over your net worth.
You need to understand that GROWTH IS SLOWING. Therefore growth stocks aren’t reasonable investments.
Today in Stocklabs only secular stocks that are risk averse are performing. This is impressive since the NASDAQ is battleaxed down 330. Notice how the Dow is only down 60?
Here are some risk averse stocks for you to peruse:
TR, MCD, CPB, GOLD, LMT, K, KR, GIS, AEP, MKC just to name a few.
Earlier today I went ALL IN on this trade, doubling up on my risk averse names an now stand before you UP 5bps for the session.
Snapchat said EBITDA would be at the low end of guidance, going at low as ZERO for EBITDA. They also said, and I quote: “the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated.”
This pairs well with the recent FB warning and NFLX collapse, leading all to believe the entirety of the ad spending space is in turmoil.
The reason for the 40% rape today is no one saw it coming. As a matter of fact, SNAP just offered guidance last month, so whatever the fuck is happening now happened very recently.
This is having a deleterious effect on all social platforms, also extending into ad companies like TTD, PUBM, MGNI, OMC and IPG, amongst many others. It’s doom cast all over again and shares of ROKU can’t seem to find a bottom, now trading at 3.5x sales — way way down from its high of 28x reached in 2020. These stocks are certainly “cheap” based on where they were then and where they are now. At 3.5x sales, one has to assume ROKU is worthy of money down here. But the only thing about looking at valuations now is the fact that we have yet to see sales decline. Once we get 20-30% downward revisions in sales, then perhaps we can look at valuations and determine if we’re near a bottom.
Presently, I am not hedged, long old man and a few commodities, down 84bps.
Tue May 24, 2022 9:51am ESTComments Off on MARKETS BLEED OUT
Tiger Global favs are getting smashed again today and I might need to revise my predictions for the session, seeing this hellscape materialize in real time.
I sold most of my risk and kept the UVIX position intact for now, while bulking up on old man risk averse stocks like CPB. This doesn’t seem like a forgiving tape and the idea of a bounce might be fanciful day dreaming brought on by decades of Fed programming to always believe in American exceptionalism.
The NASDAQ is -312 and the Ruble is at six year highs.
Tue May 24, 2022 9:18am ESTComments Off on BEAR MARKET TRADING: BUY DIPS, SELL RIPS
It sounds incredulous but the best rallies happen in bear markets, especially during morning gap downs. Is today going to be one of those buy the dip and go days or will we sink even lower throughout the day in a methodical decline lower amidst apathy and tragic tragedies?
We are more likely to rise from the morning decline, now indicating DOWN 200 NASDAQs by the open. Much of this decline is due to SNAP and other big social sites falling prey to the economic winds of recession.
But, at least from what I’ve gathered about this moron tape, people will fast forget and begin to buy other stuff because FOMO.
I’m not bullish per se, just trying to guesstimate what exactly is on store for the day ahead.
Gun to head opinion: we lift from opening tick and head fake higher only to later succumb to sellooors who have margin calls and we close terribly.
Once again I did it. I gained +306bps for the session with a timely and prescient AEMD trade that will be reserved for sale at 4am this morning. I will have you know, it is very nice to be up around 4am trading while the rest of the sloths sleep lazily as I bank coin.
It was as swell day and no real complaints, other than the fact we did not COLLAPSE THE CLOSE. My base case is for a morning lift following my catastrophic collapse.
I am long commodities, hedged via 15% position in UVIX, and 40% cash — at record all time highs of +36% YTD. I do not mean to boast, but then again — who’s gonna stop me?
Today the market is being led higher by commodities, so naturally the bulls are out and about thinking UPST and SQ will be next to go. The truth is, the absolute unvarnished truth is, markets will soon collapse under the weight of 1,000 raping gorillas. There is nothing holding the market from spilling over and vomiting up whatever gains it has enjoyed the past two sessions. I am sure PERMANENT BULLS will point towards BEARISHNESS as a reason to own stocks. While it’s true, there is something valuable to learn from betting against the masses, this cannot be a long term investment stratagem worthy of serious discussion. It’s glib and also condescending. It is my belief that markets understand exactly what is happening and the blips along the way are mere footnotes in a much larger narrative at play.
We have PLUNGING sales and earnings and also commodity supply constraints. and oh by the way war.
On my next point regarding the war, Russia is winning, in spite of all of the weapons we are piling into Ukraine. If by chance Russia ends up occupying the entire country by Fall, this is going to be a national humiliation not endured since Vietnam. Because of this possibility, it is my belief America will enter the war before that permit Russia takeover Kiev.
That being said, I am aware of the fact that markets might behave counter to prevailing trends in the short term and have mostly a very bullish portfolio now, filled with commodity stocks. I am +202bps for the session in my trading and +555bps in my Quant — which is all in commodities. My best guess for tomorrow is a small lift in morning and then resumption of selling throughout the day, similar to what we saw the last time markets lifted this much on May 4th.